No Account Bet Today


M e s s a g e C o n t e n t

Only a short message today. I had a proper
break yesterday after a long stint and didn't
start this message until this morning. I liked
just one horse in the time I had available to
study. I will start back with normal messages
tomorrow and we can have some more bets.


M e s s a g e H i g h l i g h t s


Only a couple of previews today and only 1
suggested bet and it runs early at Lingfield.


Lingfield 12.30

SHAMARDYH 5/2

Win Bet


Not much I know after a day off but I needed
to keep it short and have a proper break from
it all. No account bet. This will blow cobwebs
away and I can start another run of messages
from tomorrow with some good racing coming.




M o n d a y 's R e v i e w

There was no message yesterday and that just
leaves a one preview Monday message to look
at. I went for a tough handicap in a preplanned
short message and ended up breaking level as
the saver won. Didn't lose anything on the race
so it was worth a go given we had good prices.



P r o f i l e s A n d P r e v i e w s



L i n g f i e l d 12.30

7/2 Shamardyh, 4/1 Alumina, 6/1 Dandys Perier
8/1 Wiki Tiki, 10/1 Biscuiteer, 10/1 Dont Have It Then
10/1 Vodka Chaser, 12/1 Armelle, 12/1 My My My Diliza
14/1 Birikyno, 16/1 Caroline´s Beach
50/1 Dawnfromthepast.

* This is a 3yo handicap over 6f
* There are 43 of these races in January
* ALUMINA is a filly with 3 career starts
* Fillies with under 4 career starts were 1-28
* That winner did not come from a 5f race like Alumina
* ALUMINA with 3 runs absent 46 days looks unsafe
* Fillies from 5f races had an overall 2-61 record
* Both winners had 6 + runs and ran within 2 weeks
* Fillies from 5f without a run in 2 weeks were 0-38
* ALUMINA fails that and looks unsafe
* WIKI TIKI also fails this and is not like a winner
* WIKI TIKI has raced just once in Months
* She may not be at peak fitness
* ARMELLE is unlike any winners
* No fillies won dropping down from 8f races
* DAWNFROMTHEPAST is absent too long
* CAROLINE´S BEACH is a filly from a maiden
* I don't want her starting 100/1 last time
* VODKA CHASER is out from a Claimer
* BIRIKYNO didn't do enough last time

Possibles

* BISCUITEER is a filly from 5f
* With 8 runs and a recent race I dont mind that
* Just not sure she is good enough to win
* She started 25/1 last time in a 4 runner race
* That was off bottomweight getting weight from a 56 horse
* The maiden she won here looked poor
* She beat exposed horses that had lost several times before
* Shortlistable but I think there are stronger horses

* DONT HAVE IT THEN is male from a handicap
* 29 winners had this profile and 28 ran within 23 days
* Only 1 had 24 + days absence (1-42)
* That horse dropped in distance
* That winner came from a better class race as well
* DONT HAVE IT THEN would be better with a recent run
* I could forgive him this but he does have a bit to prove
* This is his first run for 148 days

* DANDYS PERIER is male and comes from a handicap
* I looked at horses doing this with 8 or more runs
* There were 8 winners all running within 10 days
* Those absent longer are 0-19
* DANDYS PERIER with 9 runs absent 22 days is unsafe
* He doesn't match that profile
* My biggest worry is him getting outpaced
* He runs to me like he needs 7f

Selection

* SHAMARDYH is a filly from 5f
* With a recent run she passes my angles
* Two starts ago she unseated her rider at Wolverhampton
* It was a furlong out and she looked about to win
* She clipped the heel of the horse in front
* That was an accident and I think she'd have won
* That day she would have beaten DANDYS PERIER
* She would also have beaten DONT HAVE IT THEN
* She looked like she had both horses easily covered
* That was simply bad luck and she has ran since
* She was a good second in a maiden race
* That will have put her unfortunate fall behind her
* She should be able to win this race today

Selection

SHAMARDYH 5/2

Win Bet



L i n g f i e l d 1.00

7/2 Drawnfromthepast, 4/1 Secret Millionaire
5/1 Mossgo, 6/1 Different, 6/1 Only Ten Per Cent
8/1 Decision By One, 10/1 Desert Strike
12/1 Pull The Pin.

* There are 110 of these 5f handicaps in January
* SECRET MILLIONAIRE has been absent 342 days
* There are three 6 year olds absent several months
* None aged 7 or more like him (0-23)
* The 6 year olds with absences had 14 8 28 career runs
* SECRET MILLIONAIRE is 7 and has 39 runs
* He'd be the oldest and most exposed to win with a break
* DIFFERENT is a lightly raced 4yo filly
* Those that won all ran much better than her last time
* PULL THE PIN didn't do enough last time
* DESERT STRIKE also failed to offer enough
* The above horses are my negatives
* I can find winners like all other horses
* It looks a tactical race. I rule little out
* ONLY TEN PER CENT comes out well
* DRAWNFROMTHEPAST also comes out well
* These two had the best overall profiles
* ONLY TEN PER CENT could be the value
* I opposed him last time form various reasons
* He nearly won that day on his first 5f start

Selection

ONLY TEN PER CENT 11/2 Win Bet

DRAWNFROMTHEPAST 11/4 Saver Bet

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