No Main Account bet

1 Optional Account bet

5 Previews


A little battle weary after yesterdays Circus act and
today I have mixed things up a bit mixing together
some Racing analysis and some non racing things.
It is either self indulgent twaddle or an interesting
read and it will certainly be seen as both by many.



O p t i o n a l A c c o u n t

Aiming to peak yesterday it always felt unlikely I
could peak again 24 hours later and this shows a
bit as the analysis is pretty average today. I think
the message suffers from having no national hunt
races today. As ever I have done the best I can.


Todays Bet

AYR 4.00

YOURINTHEWILL 8/1 +

Each Way


This is only a speculative bet. He is priced up
between 15/2 and 10/1 probably because there
is a good reason he won't deliver on the turf.
I wanted to risk him at the price to low stakes.



I went for YOURINTHEWILL instead of this bet

Longchamp 2.40
CIRRUS DES AIGLES 7/2
Each Way

Now he is either the bet of the week or a horse
that cane only place or lose. I can't decide and
given it is a hard bet to get on I've dumped this
bet and just decided to do the following myself.

Longchamp 2.40

CIRRUS DES AIGLES 7/2

There is a decision to be made in this race as we
have the red hot favourite and Arc winner TREVE
but this CIRRUS DES AIGLES is a multiple group 1
winner and available each way at 7/2 with only 8
runners 6 of which are massive prices on Betfair.

One problem with the bet is that if TREVE shows
her form the best we can do is second. Then the
idea occurred to me to have an each way double.

Longchamp 2.40 - CIRRUS DES AIGLES 7/2
Saturday 2000 Guineas - TOORMOORE 7/1

Each Way Double

* I won't stake this as there isn't much 7/1 Toormore
* Ladbrokes Paddy Power Betfred Tote are the firms to use
* They are top price on both horses
* Both horses could win but the Place will pay well



SATURDAY - 2000 GUINEAS

I will do a piece about this race tomorrow. I am not
saying Toormoore will be my selection but I Wanted
him in this each way double with Cirrus Des Aigles.

I can't commit to the race without seeing the draw
or the ground but I will be opposing Kingman and
I will give you a very good reason why tomorrow.




N e x t W e e k

Busy end to next week with the Newmarket Guineas
on Saturday and Sunday. I was going to have a day
off but not sure now. I want to do tomorrow. I have
two hospital appointments early in the week so may
just do two half messages and no day off rather than
have a break. I haven't decided yet but It is likely to
be a quietish start to the week in terms of previews.



Ireland

I was disappointed with the Irish Racing today. Huge
fields at Limerick which I can't take seriously and no
real edge at Gowran Park either. There is nothing in
the draw bias there. I can't see anything I like there
either and today I am drawing a blank in Ireland.

France

The main race I have to watch is the Ganay at 2.40
pitching Arc winner Treve against Cirrus Des Aigles
who whilst an inferior horse is fitter and in a race
that tempts you into the each way burglary bet.

Ayr

I have looked at two races there. I've never found it
easy at Ayr. I don't like the frame of races there and
this makes the draw harder to read and there are so
many local trainer and owners trying to win races I
just never feel I am on top of racing at this track.

Kempton

A couple of races covered as most of this card does
seem suitable only for information based betting.




Y e s t e r d a y 's S u m m a r y

It was a very strange day emotionally yesterday with
so much going on. It started badly when I was told a
member of the service had died. Then we had what
was a horrendous experience in the Scoop 6 having
lost in the opening leg. I had 9 of the 13 horses here
and to watch the 10th horse win was sickening. After
the race I wasn't sure if I should feel embarrassed or
stupid. Then GLEN MOSS went and won an account
bet at 7/1 and by that stage I had completely no idea
what I felt about results. You can argue an early loss
in the Scoop 6 didn't matter much as we had losers
in later legs and nobody won it but we were getting
excited and looking forward to going close and lost
the chance to dream. FOXTROT ROMEO my second
bet lost. The account did really well again but what
will probably be remembered from today is the sad
miserable Scoop 6 experience. At least we can live
to tell the tale unlike Tommy the member who died.



I like Sunday messages but in increasing months as
the racing on Saturday is busier it's harder to do the
Sunday message justice as your mentally tired. The
answer might be to keep Sundays free of previews.

Many previews have always been my one biggest
dread each day. These are a burden and I'd argue
increasingly look old fashioned. I like the thought
of turning Sunday into a preview free days where
I can just roam around any country looking at stats
without being constricted by doing lots of previews.


A c c o u n t F e e d b a c k

I've just had 2 contrasting emails I want to show.
The 1st was an angry member who left saying he
was so disappointed in the lack of main account
bets. He felt quite let down and left the service.

The Second was from another member saying
both service and results had picked up and the
two different accounts happily provided clarity.

I've always had two accounts as many tipsters
do for different reasons and my reasons below.

Because the game is hard and there's pressure
and an increasing amount of racing I have to
protect myself from lots of things. Confidence
is absolutely key to winning money for others.

A 2nd account is a psychological buffer aimed
purely at managing Confidence. All losing bets
become less damaging on a lower account and
any winning bets don't lead to over confidence.

I appreciate that sounds ridiculous but so does
all kind of superstition and in a game that can
be very Mental working between 2 accounts is
an ideal way to deal with pressure/confidence.

That is why I always say when asked that you
should bet both on accounts and don't see any
difference in strength between them. The fact
is at Noon each day it does not matter how a
bet is labelled it is a result of the same work I
have done that day and it is my best opinion.

To the people that see this as weakness I can
honestly say I used to agree with that. Now I
see it as a sign of mental strength. There are
2 brilliant Tipsters in Pricewise - Hugh Taylor.

Both are superb but they use just one account
both of them have had suffered losing runs in
the past years that would have left them with
no members if they'd been running services.

We haven't had a long losing run in over five
years. I can't be clear about exact numbers
but I remember a losing run of 11 in 2011 and
a couple of 7 or 8 runs without a winner. That
unpleasant as it is - is actually very good going
and with every 4 bets averaging W L P L the
use of 2 accounts has stopped any losing runs.

I have only used the Optional Account during
the last few weeks. This is partly Down to the
new season starting and not knowing horses
are fit. I wasn't certain how my dad's funeral
would affect me so I played this safe staying
on the lower account. Right or wrong we are
showing excellent results there so I think the
decision was justified. I will switch accounts
soon now once I have something very good.



P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S



K e m p t o n 2.15

6/4 Dittander, 2/1 Ar Colleen Aine, 5/1 Howlin´for You
10/1 Kodestiny, 12/1 Jersey Belle, 20/1 Amber Crystal
50/1 Julia Stardust.

This 2yo maiden features an unraced Richard Hannon
horse DITTANDER against AR COLLEEN AINE who has
a race and runs for Mick Channon. You could go either
way here. I'd take the view that AR COLLEEN AINE has
only recorded a Racing Post Rating of 59 on her debut
and whilst a promising run that is not high enough for
me to bet her against Hannon's horse. I don't think the
rating is high enough. Therefore my hunch is that the
unraced DITTANDER could be the more likely winner.
HOWLIN´FOR YOU is unraced and could be a danger
but I think the Hannon horse is the safer option.

Selection

DITTANDER 7/4

Win Bet




A y r 2.30

4/1 Dashwood, 5/1 Diamond Blue, 5/1 Monel
11/2 Baltic Spirit, 12/1 Commandable, 14/1 New Lease Of Life
16/1 Economic Crisis, 16/1 Goninodaethat, 16/1 Rock Canyon
16/1 Saxonette, 16/1 Verus Delicia, 20/1 Funding Deficit
20/1 Spirit Of Alsace, 25/1 Fife Jo, 33/1 Classy Anne
33/1 Karens Legacy.

I think you wanted a middle high draw in this 6f handicap.
I can't argue DASHWOOD has a good profile coming down
in trip with one run this season. Only one winner managed
that and he was a 6 year old. MONEL is 6 and also drops in
trip and is therefore more like the winner with DASHWOOD
older as the 7 year old. We have to consider BALTIC SPIRIT
is only a 3 year old. That issue is complicated but none won
from a handful that tried. DIAMOND BLUE is a mare with a
bad draw and just one run this year. It may be worth going
with a risky bet on COMMANDABLE as he probably needed
his last run. The Split Stake bet with Monel seems fair.

Diamond Blue - Baltic Spirit - I preferred others

Dashwood - Could play a role as a saver

Monel - Considered as a joint selection in a split stake bet

COMMANDABLE- Speculative selection in the race

Selection


Split Stake Bet

COMMANDABLE 12/1 Win Bet

MONET 7/1 Win Bet



L o n g c h a m p 2.40

2/5 Treve, 100/30 Cirrus Des Aigles, 12/1 Norse King
14/1 Smoking Sun, 16/1 Triple Threat, 20/1 Joshua Tree
50/1 Baltic Baroness, 50/1 Belle De Crecy.

The Prix Ganay in France is a chance to watch TREVE who
was a very impressive winner of last years Arc De Triomphe
and who based on international classifications is the joint
best horse in the World. TREVE will probably win but she's
a filly and absent a long time and who know how she may
progress as a 4 year old. Whilst CIRRUS DES AIGLES is an
8 year old and clearly not as good as her there is a case to
side with him. First of all he has two runs this season and
has already won three Group 1 races. Secondly there are
only 8 runners and 6 of these 8 runners are 25/1 and more.
There must be a case for CIRRUS DES AIGLES each way.

Selection

CIRRUS DES AIGLES 7/2

Each Way





A y r 4.00

7/2 K Lightning, 5/1 Latin Rebel, 6/1 Yourinthewill
7/1 Call Of Duty, 9/1 Cabal, 10/1 Elizabeth Coffee
12/1 Snooker, 14/1 Eilean Mor, 14/1 Strandfield Bay
20/1 Gadobout Dancer, 25/1 She´s Some Girl.

* This is a 10f handicap for 0-60 rated horses
* April has 50 similar races in recent years

* CALL OF DUTY - Initial thoughts he'd beat K Lightning
* My Angles suggest he has a weak profile though
* K LIGHTNING - I don't like him. His profile isn't safe.
* I can appreciate he is improving his numbers after 4 runs
* I needed more and he is not my choice
* LATIN REBEL is hard to read. I can't leave him out
* YOURINTHEWILL is 0-12 on Turf but I'd ignore that
* I looked at all his turf runs and that record doesn't worry me
* Most of those runs came at the wrong stage of his career
* I will give him a chance with a small stake

Selection

YOURINTHEWILL 10/1

Each Way




K e m p t o n 5.15

11/4 Ranjaan, 7/2 Flemish School, 13/2 Highland Castle
13/2 Presto Volante, 7/1 Dark Ranger, 7/1 Romeo Montague
12/1 First Avenue, 14/1 Ermyn Lodge, 20/1 Storm Hawk.

* This is a 2m handicap for 0-94 rated horses
* There are 71 similar races in April
* RANJAAN is interesting trained by Paul Nicholls
* He is trying to win his first ever flat race
* RANJAAN is hard to read but I like his chance
* Partly because of negatives for some of his rivals
* He has just twice run very well over 2m on the flat
* His Racing Post Ratings suggest he has the class

* FLEMISH SCHOOL doesn't look a natural 2 miler by Dutch Art
* I can't say she doesn't stay as she was won over 2m
* That was only a 0-75 in a small field and they went no pace early on
* Dutch Art has only bred this one winner beyond 12f
* I'm not convinced FLEMISH SCHOOL will stay in this class
* She is also a 4yo filly and in 71 races fillies aged 4 are just 1-47

* HIGHLAND CASTLE is a seasonal debutant aged 6
* He is now trained by Brian Meehan a very risky stable to bet
* Far from certain his trainer will have him at his best today
* There are seasonal debutants his age but none won with his weight
* Those that had 9st 9lbs or more had a 0-25 record
* HIGHLAND CASTLE has 9st 12lbs and therefore fails that angle
* ROMEO MONTAGUE fails the same angles absent 333 days
* His Trainer also expects him to need the run

* DARK RANGER is 8 and absent 298 days
* There was a 9yo absent 155 days
* There was a 6yo absent 208 days
* Horses aged 7 or more absent 190 or more days are 0-27
* DARK RANGER is therefore not like any winners
* His trainer also states he will need the run today
* ERMYN LODGE fails the same angles
* STORM HAWK is impossible to fancy
* FIRST AVENUE - I can't rule him out from a handicap hurdle
* May just be more comfortable in a lower grade though

* PRESTO VOLANTE is a 6yo seasonal debutant
* He has a chance but not completely convinced
* His wins are off marks of 61 67 70 in Class 6 5 5
* Today he has a rating of 79 in a Class 3 race
* He has a 0-11 record in Class 4 and higher
* He was hammered first time out last year as well
* Not enough to get me interested

Selection


RANJAAN 9/4

Win Bet

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