No Account Bet


T o d a y s R a c i n g

I have run through a few issues in a lot of
races today. Newmarket's dominated with
2 year old races so we are in the dark a bit.

The bets there are more Gentle Steers than
direct selections. The National Hunt is still
very raw at the moment so I've just thrown
a few races into the mix to see how it goes.

These issues make finding a bet difficult.
Newmarket is out of bounds really. There
are a few National Hunt options once you
take out the bumpers and the stupid races
but in some of the maiden/novice hurdles
there's a temptation for each way doubles.

I don't want to get dragged into these bets
on the account but don't mind so much in
the top of the message off the account so
I am going for one today as my best bet


Newmarket 1.30 - PAMONA 6/4

Navan 1.35 - RED IVY 7/4

Each Way Double

Other than that it is a message designed
to work me into some form in a slow and
quiet spell where the races don't suit me.




T u e s d a y s S u m m a r y

Only 3 previews yesterday and we didn't
get a winner. It was a first all weather day
in several months and the rust showed a
bit and it served for little more than match
practice for the winter.



S h o r t P r i c e N e g a t i v e s (Pilot)

None Today

Running Total
6 Correct
5 Incorrect




P r o f i l e s @ P r e v i e w s


Newmarket 1.30

My slight preference is PAMONA
The obvious bet is the each way double
We just don't know about enough of the opposition
Why not do that with the next selection

Newmarket 1.30 - PAMONA 6/4

Navan 1.35 - RED IVY 7/4

Each Way Double




N a v a n 1.35

9/4 Shanghai Beauty, 7/2 Red Ivy
11/2 Glimmer Of Peace, 6/1 Azerelle
10/1 Maronella, 12/1 Scottish Mist
14/1 Vocal Warm Up, 25/1 Great Wide Open
25/1 Maluhia, 33/1 Rapid Eye, 33/1 Whats The Plot.

This is a 2yo maiden and the favourite has an
awkward 102 day absence. I looked at fillies in
all 5f-6f maidens with 2 or more previous races.

Those like SHANGHAI BEAUTY absent at least
90 days were 0-33. Those from Listed races as
she is were just 0-3 so I would see her as just a
modest unproven profile. RED IVY ran well last
time in a 0-93 handicap. There were 16 runners
and that was a decent run and her 3 day break
may well give her a fitness advantage on a few
of these. Statistically RED IVY is a neutral with
no similar horses running with her profile. I'm
more drawn to a recent race than an absence.

Selection

RED IVY 7/4

Win Bet





N e w m a r k e t 2.00

4/1 Lashkaal, 9/2 Dark Kingdom
11/2 Yorkshire, 7/1 Imperial Link, 8/1 Secret Spirit
17/2 Jillanar, 10/1 Classic Seniority, 10/1 Multistar
10/1 Never Easy, 14/1 Essaka, 25/1 Pipe Bomb.

The problem with these Nurseries is you can't
judge most of the field. Half of these have raced
just 3 times before.

* DARK KINGDOM looks unsafe to me
* I looked at all similar 7f Nurseries in October
* Horses with 1 career start like him were 0-9
* These 9 horses finished in these positions
* 6 8 6 12 6 6 8 3 4 and several were fancied

* Basically horses with 1 run have won in 8f Nurseries
* None have won at 5f 6f 7f though and this is 7f
* My angles say avoid DARK KINGDOM

* Horses from 5f races have struggled
* The only winners ran within 2 weeks
* The only winners had 5 or more runs doing that
* NEVER EASY - YORKSHIRE - ESSAKA fail this

* I looked at horses from 6f Nurseries
* None like JILLANAR had just 3 runs

Shortlist

* CLASSIC SENIORITY is a neutral profile
* I would certainly consider him for the selection

* IMPERIAL LINK - No problems with profile
* MULTISTAR - No problems with profile
* LASHKAAL - No problems with profile

* SECRET SPIRIT also looks interesting statistically
* I found a horse winning at Newbury just like him
* That horse (Poetic Dancer) came from the same stable
* More drawn to her but Stall 1 worries me

Selection

SECRET SPIRIT 10/1

Each Way




W o r c e s t e r 2.15

7/2 Call Me Vic, 9/2 Irish Buccaneer, 13/2 Wilton Milan
7/1 Kingcora, 8/1 Oscar Fortune, 17/2 Walk On Al
9/1 Lookslikerainted, 10/1 Midnight Belle
16/1 Hard To Swallow, 16/1 Timesishard.

* This is a 2m 7f Novice Handicap Chase
* Looks a bit too open and can procede only so far
* WILTON MILAN - Flaws in his profile not for me
* MIDNIGHT BELLE -Opposed as a mare first time out
* I looked at seasonal debutants from Novice Hurdles
* There were 3 winners all 6 year olds but few others tried
* CALL ME VIC is 7 doing this and a neutral
* LOOKSLIKERAINTED is 7 doing this and a neutral
* WALK ON AL comes from a Graded Novice
* Thats another Neutral profile
* OSCAR FORTUNE is a seasonal debutant
* Handicap Hurdles when last seen and a gamble today
* Horses from Handicap Hurdles last year were 3-38
* None had 11st 4lbs or more and he has11st 8lbs
* No 6yo did it with more than 10st 12lbs
* OSCAR FORTUNE's issue is the weight
* TIMESISHARD fails the same statistic
* IRISH BUCCANEER technically has the same issue
* KINGCORA - Profile fine but fitness doubts
* HARD TO SWALLOW - absent too long

Conclusion

Trappy race full of "Nearly rights" and "Neutrals"
and no safe choice. I looked at trainers without a
seasonal debutant winner this year and because
of that decided to ignore Kingcora and Call Me Vic.
Dan Skeltons seasonal debutants have been very
good and I will use that fact in a split stake bet.

WALK ON AL 11/2 Win Bet

IRISH BUCCANEER Evens Place Bet



N e w m a r k e t 3.10

13/8 Alnashama, 7/2 Bollihope, 13/2 Nayel
15/2 Khalaas, 9/1 Estikhraaj, 10/1 Pick Your Choice
11/1 Ooty Hill, 16/1 Dutch Uncle, 25/1 Captain Felix
33/1 Red House Rebel, 40/1 Ben Muir.

Another Maiden. Another race we have to guess in.
My best angle is to oppose NAYEL on his debut
Awful record from his sires 7f runners with under 2 runs
He could be a place lay
ALNASHAMA and BOLLIHOPE may fight this out
I like both and they could fit each way doubles
BOLLIHOPE each way 5/2 + could be an option too
What worries me about him is the ground
The stumbling block is PICK YOUR CHOICE
He is a well backed unraced 2 year old
4 of the past 5 winners were unraced
That tempers my enthusiam about my selection

Selection

ALNASHAMA 9/4 Each Way




N e w m a r k e t 3.45

5/4 Hawkesbury, 7/4 Fannaan
3/1 Algaith, 33/1 Henryhudsonbridge.

This is a 7f conditions race
Small field with 3 serious challengers
I needed some past renewals of this race
There are none so in the dark a little
Just wanted to mention something about FANNAAN
His sire Speightstown has winners on Good-Soft
So far his runners on Soft and Heavy are just 1-40
The ground may not be perfect
He has less runs as well than his main rivals
That may be advantage for all I know
I certainly couldn't make him a negative
HAWKESBURY is just preferred
Miles clear on Racing Post Ratings
I can't be confident with no direct renewals

Selection

HAWKESBURY 11/8

Win Bet



W o r c e s t e r 4.00

15/8 Lady Buttons, 3/1 Pitter Patter
4/1 Sea Claria, 10/1 Buckboru, 14/1 Dear Darling
14/1 Sassanova, 16/1 Nouveau Moulin
20/1 Gwendoliner, 20/1 Hurricane´s Girl
25/1 Tyre Hill Lady, 66/1 Peaceful Gardens
100/1 Fireing Pin.

None of these mares have a safe profile

Equally none are strong negatives

The presence of Listed Bumper horses complicates it

LADY BUTTONS and PITTER PATTER are neutrals

My angles say NOUVEAU MOULIN is interesting

Watch the market around 14/1. She has a chance

Sort of that I'd have to split stake guess the race



Newmarket 4.20

Another maiden this time over a mile
I looked at some sire records for 2yo's
Those with winners on soft or a mile
AFJAAN's sire has yet to breed a similar winner
First time out I wasn't impressed so i'd ignore him
AFJAAN has been well backed despite the above
ETIBAAR also looks vulnerble on soft at 8f first time
Looked at MYTHICAL CITY as a possible place option
Not a great record from 2yo's down from 10f races
None had 1-2 runs like her so not impressed enough
These 3 don't impress - after that anyones guess !



Newmarket 4.55

11/10 Crafty Choice, 6/4 Pallister, 6/1 Murgan
16/1 Captain Navarre, 50/1 Speedfit Rules.

Messy small field conditions race
Over 10f for 2 year olds a severe test
Depends on how you want to approach this
I looked at some sire records for 2yo's
Those with winners on soft or 10f or more
Only MURGAN's sire has had a similar winner
Thats the case for him with only a few dangers
CRAFTY CHOICE has the best direct profile
My choice would be CRAFTY CHOICE
I feel the stamina issue points to a split stake
It buys CRAFTY CHOICE out of the race
It puts us on the safest statistical stayer

Selection

CRAFTY CHOICE 10/11 - Half Stakes to win

MURGAN 4/1 - Half Stakes to win




W o r c e s t e r 5.05

5/2 Binge Drinker, 5/2 Derrintogher Bliss
11/4 He´s A Bully, 8/1 Royal Supreme
12/1 Murrayana, 14/1 Ballybough Andy
16/1 Singininthevalleys, 33/1 Verve Argent
100/1 Salmonliv, 100/1 Todoistodare.

* This is a 2m 4f Maiden Hurdle
* This looks a 4 horse race
* All 4 options very easy to do statistically

* HE´S A BULLY has the weakest profile
* 1 run in bumper last year a 0-19 record
* These horses do win over shorter and further
* That stops me making him a negative
* None have yet won over 19f 20f 21f yet
* ROYAL SUPREME is a complete neutral
* No 4yo tried to win from a Graded Bumper last year
* DERRINTOGHER BLISS offers a dilemma
* 5yo's from a recent maiden hurdle were 3-5
* Excellent record but they had 2 5 8 hurdle runs
* DERRINTOGHER BLISS only has 1 hurdle run
* None tried to win with 1 hurdle run
* DERRINTOGHER BLISS should be neutral positive
* BINGE DRINKER - 1 winner from a Maiden Bumper
* That was the 2011 winner of this race
*Just about the best profile but nothing exciting here
*Not a badly framed race so each way an option

Selection

BINGE DRINKER 11/4

Each Way



N e w m a r k e t 5.25

7/4 Temptress, 7/2 No Poppy, 6/1 Auction
6/1 Buredyma, 7/1 Fruit Pastille
14/1 Alexandrakollontai, 16/1 Acclio
16/1 Boonga Roogeta.

* This is a fillies handicap over 8f
* There are only 2 of these races in October
* I've looked at every Class 2 handicaps for fillies
* There are only 13 of these races at any distance
* This is an unsatisfactory sample size
* What I can say is all 13 winners ran within 21 days
* Those that did not were 0-48
* TEMPTRESS the favourite is absent 102 days
* That would worry me based on that 0-48 stat
* Her trainer Roger Charlton often leaves runners short
* She may win - but that 0-48 stat puts me off her
* BOONGA ROOGETA also lacks a recent run
* BUREDYMA also lacks a recent run
* ACCLIO also lacks a recent run
* No winners were beaten 10 + lengths last time
* ALEXANDRAKOLLONTAI fails this
* BUREDYMA also fails this
* FRUIT PASTILLE comes from a Class 4 handicap
* With 14 runs she is a bit exposed to go up 2 grades
* I'd shortlist 2 horses

Shortlist

NO POPPY - Not the ideal age and not an ideal draw
AUCTION - Big chance if handling the ground

Selection

AUCTION 11/2 Win Bet

NO POPPY 5/1 Saver

The alternate saver is No Poppy to Place
if you want a bit more safety in any bet.



W o r c e s t e r 5.35

10/11 No No Romeo, 6/1 Blackthorn Prince
6/1 Go Odee Go, 7/1 Brownville, 7/1 Private Malone
14/1 Arthur Mc Bride, 33/1 Seymour Star
33/1 Significant Move, 50/1 Essteepee
50/1 Ethelred.

* This is a 2m 4f Maiden Hurdle

Only a small sample size of similar races in the
month of October so I am cautions. However if
I look for 5yo debutants from Graded Bumpers
last year I find 0-3 record. NO NO ROMEO could
still easily win with that profile but there is not a
winner doing it yet and at odds on why bother.
I see GO ODEE GO as a neutral positive as well.
There are unraced horses we can't know about.
A selection would be a guess but BROWNVILLE
is like a winner and at 10/1 my angles give him a
chance in this race. Bear it in mind. No selection.


K e m p t o n 8.25

Just a quick footnote about this race.
In the 2pm Newmarket I opposed the
favourite Dark Kingdom with one run
for reasons given earlier. We also see
a horse in Mountain Rescue having 1
previous race. See how the 2pm race
gets on and if the stat holds and if it
does then I'd avoid Mountain Rescue.

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