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Brighton 5.40

LITTLE CHOOSEY 5/1 Win Bet

TIGER´S HOME 7/1 Saver


A shorter message today given the field sizes and
the tracks involved. It is not a day that offers me a
lot with some of my weaker tracks and I am going
to put in a short one today. In fact just one preview.

My form's warming up nicely as the big Newmarket
July fixture starts on Thursday. Today looks a weak
day and not one to commit to hence just the 1 race.


O p t i o n a l A c c o u n t



Brighton 5.40

LITTLE CHOOSEY 5/1 Win Bet

TIGER´S HOME 7/1 Saver

Brighton have 12 of these races in July and half
of the winners were 4 year old fillies and I think
this pair have a very good chance. Both of them
have suffered from some very poor draws lately
and either could win. I just prefer Little Choosey
but could be wrong and this saver is important.





M o n d a y s S u m m a r y

For a long way it looked like CAPRELLA had won
yesterday but she was caught late which was just
frustrating. We were on each way so we retained
our stake. Non runners reduced the field to seven
but had she finished 3rd it would have gone down
as a loser. Those that chose to bet win only might
hopefully have laid her back in running touching
1.06 at one point which just shows how much she
looked the winner. I think she was a good choice
and she ran well and I suppose at least we didn't
lose anything. Mixed results elsewhere. Windsor
went soft and that contributed to Pershing losing.
I'm pleased I didn't go with him at shortish price.
Jack Naylor won but the morning favourite didn't
run so his price collapsed. EBADANI was second
each way but again he was a much shorter price
than I expected. It wasn't impressive stuff but no
real damage and we were messed about by the
non runners and the rain and with the main bet
getting our stake back it could have been worse.


P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S



B r i g h t o n 5.40

4/1 Fairy Mist, 5/1 Admirable Art, 5/1 Little Choosey
6/1 Ceelo, 6/1 First Rebellion, 7/1 Where´s Reiley
10/1 Dover The Moon, 14/1 High On The Hog, 16/1 El Duque
20/1 Tiger´s Home, 25/1 Myjestic Melody.

* This is a selling handicap over 6f
* I looked at horses that came from 8f or more
* The odd winner did manage this drop in distance
* None were aged 6 or more though
* None of then won last time out either
* FAIRY MIST has both those problems
* I don't want a 7yo who won over a mile last time
* He has never won over this trip before
* He has never raced over 6f on faster ground either
* ADMIRABLE ART also dropped from 8f
* Horses doing that beaten 10 + lengths were 0-85
* ADMIRABLE ART has also never ran over 6f before
* MYJESTIC MELODY is very unlikely to be fit enough
* FIRST REBELLION doesn't look ready to win yet
* I feel he is underraced this year going up in distance
* EL DUQUE is 3 and comes from a Claimer
* None like him have won and he looks unsafe
* HIGH ON THE HOG has spent most of his career over further
* He was beaten 9 + lengths only 4 days ago
* Very few horses overcame similar defeats so recently
* None of these were as old as he is
* With a poor 1-39 strike rate he looks unsafe
* WHERE´S REILEY is 8 and absent 39 days
* Horses aged 8 or more were 8-153
* All 8 winners ran within 4 weeks
* He just misses out on that so not exactly right
* He only missed out by a few days though
* WHERE´S REILEY- beaten over 10 lengths over 7f last time
* I looked at horses doing that and all ran within 2 weeks
* Those like WHERE´S REILEY who didn't were 0-112
* WHERE´S REILEY fails that and his profile leaves me cold
* DOVER THE MOON - My first view was negative
* I didn't think he has shown nearly enough
* Then something occurred to me about his Sire
* Many horses by Bushranger don't seem to stay 7f or more
* DOVER THE MOON has 9 races so far
* 4 of these were over a mile or more
* 8 or these were over 7f or more
* If he hasn't been staying he could come good at 6f
* Against that is a weak stable and he has downgraded too
* In the bottom grade I'd give him a chance
* CEELO is a 4 year old from a 5f race
* Horses aged 4 doing this are 5-55
* All 5 winners that succeeded ran within 14 days
* Those without a run within 2 weeks are 0-19
* The 5 winners all achieved more in their last race too
* CEELO would have been safer with a recent run
* I won't be surprised if he wins but there are better profiles


S h o r t l i s t

TIGER´S HOME

LITTLE CHOOSEY


* Brighton has 12 similar races in July
* Interesting that 4yo fillies won 6 of these races
* I think that is the best age and sex for these races

* I am shortlisting the two fillies age 4
* LITTLE CHOOSEY and TIGER´S HOME

* LITTLE CHOOSEY has a decent profile as a 4yo filly
* I looked at similar 4yo fillies with her profile
* The winners had 13 7 7 11 7 3 days absence
* LITTLE CHOOSEY has 14 and that's acceptable
* Look at her last 3 runs as they are all excusable
* 3 runs ago She was drawn 17 of 17 at Bath over 5f161y
* No horse has won from that draw at Bath since 2005
* She then raced at Bath over 5f from Stall 1
* That's a bad draw and she has never won over 5f
* Last time out at Brighton she had a 50 day absence
* Every chance she needed that run
* LITTLE CHOOSEY should run very well today

* TIGER´S HOME is a 4yo filly from a 6f handicap
* I found 1 similar winner like her
* Similar horses with her profile had a 1-7 record
* That winner won at this track (Emmervale)
* With 4yo fillies looking strong I give her a chance
* Her last 2 runs both came when drawn in Stall 1
* I think the draw hurt her on both occasions

Both horses have coincidently suffered from bad
recent draws in at least two races. I could choose
either but I feel LITTLE CHOOSEY has the better
numbers so is the bet with TIGER´S HOME a saver.

Selection

LITTLE CHOOSEY 5/1 Win Bet

TIGER´S HOME 7/1 Saver

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