0 Account Bet
1 Selection
4 Races Discussed
4 Profiles/Preview bets


This is the first message in years on this day.
In the past I have always taken this day off so
a completely new and fresh set of races to me.


No Account Bet


1 Selection

Wolverhampton 4.40

COUNTERPROOF 7/4

Win Bet


I'm going with a win bet on this account as
it is far less toxic than an each way double.

I fancy 3 horses at short prices today and I
could easily use all 3 in each way doubles.

There are better and safer ways of staking
this bet and my other selections. Those of
you who want to consider these alternative
stakes can read about it later on. These are
races where different stakes divide opinions.

Win lose or draw it will go down as a win bet.




Profiles and Previews Selections


Plumpton 12.10 - Midnight Spin 6/4 Win Bet

Ffos Las 12.25 - Cape Caster 4/5 Win Bet

Wolverhampton 4.40 - Counterproof 7/4 Win Bet

Wolverhampton 5.40 - Staked to £10 Stakes
Wolverhampton 5.40 - £5 Win Almanack 4/1
Wolverhampton 5.40 - £4 Win Miss Lillie 9/1
Wolverhampton 5.40 - £1 Win Reggie Bond 11/1






Today's Staking

I expected to do the two Amateur races on the
sand but a tiny sample size shows my angles
are unusually contradictory in these races. I'm
not interested in small field handicap hurdles
or Chases in the early part of the week either.

I have four races today. I've had a crack at the
Wolverhampton 5.40 by far the toughest race
in the message. I shortlisted three but I could
have made any of them selections and happy
that it is a race that is not suitable for big bets.


This just leaves three I really fancy

Plumpton 12.10 - Midnight Spin 6/4 Win Bet

Ffos Las 12.25 - Cape Caster 4/5 Win Bet

Wolverhampton 4.40 - Counterproof 7/4 Win Bet


A £1 Each Way Treble returns £14.48 and that
did cross my mind but as Cape Caster runs in
a 7 runner race and has no hurdles form I have
backed off this option and feel it's too risky. So
to is the Win Treble but I wouldn't want to lay it.


Plumpton 12.10 - Midnight Spin 6/4 Win Bet
Wolverhampton 4.40 - Counterproof 7/4 Win Bet

It looks an each way double to me
I would also consider a Win-Win-Each Way Double


Many people find this sort of bet Toxic.
Others really appreciate these bets
You should Not feel you have to follow the exact bet
Feel Free to express your own staking ideas
Stake them how you want if you prefer doing this

Some might consider Counterproof worth betting
each way at 15/8 with Corals as a single yet others
would see that as madness. I'm in the former camp.


Ffos Las 12.25 - Cape Caster 4/5 Win Bet
Wolverhampton 4.40 - Counterproof 7/4 Win Bet

This could be another alternative. I tried to place
this bet with Corals and they wouldn't allow this.

Three short priced horses always bring difficult
staking dilemmas and you can't please everyone
all of the time. So it's a say to pick your own stake

Whatever happens the account goes down solely
as a single bet on Counterproof as a selection bet.




S u n d a y ' s S u m m a r y

I needed and sent a low key no selection
message yesterday. It was not very good.
Whilst the previews went W L L P L there
were only two profile and preview bets in
there are both disappointingly lost so not
very impressed with what I sent. I knew it
was a poor days racing but what little we
had that was good was too well hidden.




Profiles and Previews


P l u m p t o n 12.10

5/4 The Green Ogre, 6/4 Midnight Spin
7/1 Stars Royale, 10/1 Mon Petit Ange, 12/1 Tidestream
20/1 Sandy Beach, 66/1 Bahumbug, 100/1 Bonnie Major
150/1 Achemenes, 150/1 Priors Door.

This is a 2m Novice Hurdle. I could easily make some
positive comments about each way doubles and how
the frame of this race is suitable but I will leave that to
those that care as they will already know. We have two
different type of 4 year olds and my angles favour one.

* THE GREEN OGRE is a 4yo with 8 hurdle runs
* MIDNIGHT SPIN is a 4yo with 1 hurdle run

* December have 799 Novice Hurdles
* Thats 799 Novice Hurdles at any and every distance
* Horses aged 4
* Coming from Novice or Maiden Hurdles
* Having 7 or more previous hurdle runs
* Horses with this profile were 0-21
* THE GREEN OGRE has this profile
* Statistically MIDNIGHT SPIN is much safer
* I found winners like him so feel he should be the bet

Selection

MIDNIGHT SPIN 6/4

Win Bet




F f o s L a s 12.25

4/5 Cape Caster, 5/2 Mercoeur, 8/1 Eddiemaurice
8/1 Koliakhova, 8/1 Zephyr, 16/1 Southern Cross
25/1 Dream And Search.

This is a 3yo hurdle race. Obviously plenty we
can't know not least an odds on favourite with
no hurdling experience. I find it just impossible
to see past CAPE CASTER in such a weak race.

If you look at the 10 previous Hurdle races run
by ZEPHYR and MERCOEUR and look at their
Racing Post Ratings neither horse has passed
a a rating of 98. That is not a good standard. It
will not be enough in my view. We can't know
if CAPE CASTER will useful over hurdles but I
would expect him to surpass that. He was very
smart on the flat. 11 races there and not once
did he put up a poor run always finishing first
five. Not keen on guessing about the stable to
be honest but I will be surprised if loses given
on raw ability he looks different class to these.

Selection

CAPE CASTER 10/11

Win Bet





W o l v e r h a m p t o n 4.40

5/2 Counterproof, 3/1 Sweet Selection, 3/1 Whitchurch
5/1 Quill Art, 16/1 Amadeity, 20/1 Candella
20/1 Chorlton House, 20/1 Little Lord Nelson
20/1 Tom Paine, 40/1 Bangers, 50/1 Sunfyre.

* This is a 2yo maiden over an extended 9f
* Marathon distance for 2 year olds
* There won't be many that can win this

* QUILL ART - I can't see him winning first time out
* Not as an unraced son of Excellent Art
* No 2yo from this Sire has won over this far yet
* QUILL ART is unraced though which makes it harder
* Look at all unraced 2 year olds by Excellent Art
* Plenty have won over 5f and 6f
* Those that raced over 7f have a miserable 0-67 record

* SWEET SELECTION has a solid form chance
* Good chance She will fail to stay this far
* I looked at the record of 2yo's by her sire Stimulation
* Stimulations 2yo's over 7f and more are just 1-53
* Those that ran over 8f or more are 0-19
* The Sire himself never proved he stayed a mile
* I think over an extended 9f she will run out of petrol

* CANDELLA is also sired by Stimulation
* Stamina doubts as well as poor numbers
* This may also be a 3rd run to get handicapped
* AMADEITY also has stamina issues
* Could be here for a handicap mark as well
* Well beaten at 50/1 last time is not drawing me in
* CHORLTON HOUSE is a very unlikely winner
* I don't see him staying first time out

Shortlist

WHITCHURCH
COUNTERPROOF

WHITCHURCH is sired by Mawatheeq
Mawatheeq never raced as a 2 year old
He was a late developer starting at 3
His best form was as a 4 year old
Hard to know if he will pass those traits on
Whether his offspring will also be late developers
Mawatheeq's runners are all 2 year olds at the moment
The 13 juveniles he has bred are 0-36 so far
Could that 0-36 record support the idea they are backward
Quite possibly but he has to be respected
His Racing Post Ratings and stable both demand that

* COUNTERPROOF surely must go well
* He comes from the best stable
* He is joint top on Racing Post Ratings
* His profile is solid enough
* He won't be one of Gosden's better 2yo's
* He has done enough to win this though
* His sire Authorised has the best record in the race
* With his 2 year olds over 9f and more


Selection

COUNTERPROOF 7/4

Win Bet




W o l v e r h a m p t o n 5.40

4/1 Memoria, 9/2 Leonard Thomas, 5/1 Gambino
6/1 Loraine, 13/2 Shamaheart, 10/1 Almanack
10/1 Reggie Bond, 14/1 Miss Lillie, 16/1 Venutius
20/1 Comrade Bond, 20/1 Dha Chara
33/1 Prime Exhibit.

* This is a Mile handicap for 0-75 rated horse
* December has 281 similar races

* LEONARD THOMAS is a 4yo with 4 career starts
* I looked at 4 year olds with under 6 career starts
* There was a 2-46 record
* Both winners ran within a week
* Both winners were beaten under a length last time
* LEONARD THOMAS does not fit that profile
* He also comes from a 10f race and drops in trip
* I looked at 4 year olds coming from 9f or more
* There were 35 individual 4yo winners doing this
* All 35 of them had at least 11 career starts
* Those with fewer than 11 runs were 0-41
* LEONARD THOMAS with 4 runs looks unsafe
* On this profile I have to oppose him
* MEMORIA is a 3yo filly with just 3 runs
* I expected a disastrous profile - but it wasn't
* I still can not match her to a winner
* I can find one winning 3yo filly with 3 runs
* That horse won last time and MEMORIA didn't
* That horse also came from a different distance
* Her profile is unsafe and I don't fancy her
* I just expected it to be worse than it was
* DHA CHARA is absent too long
* COMRADE BOND looks outclassed
* PRIME EXHIBIT is 9 and too far out of form
* VENUTIUS is an exposed 7 year old
* With 45 days off and 3 runs in 2014 he's underraced

Possibles

* SHAMAHEART is an exposed 4yo up in trip
* He last ran 3 weeks ago
* There are winners with similar profiles
* Most had less weight but I have to pass him as ok
* Just not keen on the stable. Usually pays to avoid them
* They've only had 1 winner since last July

* GAMBINO is an exposed 4yo up in trip
* Similar 4 year olds running within 2 weeks were 2-62
* Has a chance but only an average profile
* Not sure he is well handicapped off 70
* Comes from a small stable as well
* May be one of those that needs a fast pace

* LORAINE - 4yo filly who ran over 8f just 3 weeks ago
* She has 19 previous races
* I looked at 4yo fillies with 16 or more career runs
* Plenty of them won with a very recent run
* Those absent over 2 weeks were just 1-32
* That horse (Salerosa) won last time out
* LORAINE didn't and it is an unsafe profile
* She'd have been better with a run within 2 weeks

Shortlist

* MISS LILLIE is a 3yo filly absent 46 days
* She has 15 runs and drops in distance
* I don't fancy the profile but one winner is like her
* Young Dottie (2009) won a similar race with her profile
* MISS LILLIE is therefore not a negative
* She should actually be shortlisted like a winner

* REGGIE BOND is a 4yo with 15 runs absent 45 days
* I looked at 4 year olds with 13-17 runs
* Those absent 5-8 weeks like him were 2-7
* Thats encouraging but I had 1 worry
* REGGIE BOND has raced just once in 4 months
* I can find a winner like him though
* That was Mina A Salem who also had 1 run in 4 months
* REGGIE BOND is therefore also a positive

* ALMANACK is an exposed 4yo with Topweight
* 3 runs ago he won a better 0-80 race over this C+D
* ALMANACK faces a 0-74 class field today
* I think he has the ability to win this on that run
* I ran his profile looking at all similar winners
* I found 4 lightweights winning and one Topweight
* His profile is fine and he could easily win


Selection

Staked to £10 Stakes

£5 Win ALMANACK 4/1
£4 Win MISS LILLIE 9/1
£1 Win REGGIE BOND 11/1

Wolverhampton 5.10 - Staked to £10 Stakes
Wolverhampton 5.10 - £5 Win ALMANACK 4/1
Wolverhampton 5.10 - £4 Win MISS LILLIE 9/1
Wolverhampton 5.10 - £1 Win REGGIE BOND 11/1

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