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6 Races Discussed

Some fascinating issues to think about today

A massive Barney Curley style 4 horse gamble
A Champion Hurdle strategy
Some Hennessy Gold Cup progress
A Horse to follow
Who is also the best bet in the message at 13/2

I have decided not to stake my best bet
Partly for some extraordinary unforeseen reasons
But I am going to bet him myself




No Official Bet Today




T o d a y ' s M e s s a g e

Lots to think about today

My Best bet is In the 3.20 at Lingfield


I have had something on my mind for a few days
Ever since the defeat of the 2016 Champion Hurdle favourite
FAUGHEEN the current Champion was beaten on Sunday

He has been pushed out to as big as 15/8 with some firms
My instant reaction was the each way double

What a superb second leg of any each way double
Only 4 months away and he is sure to start favourite
I can not see him starting anywhere near 15/8
You could get a small field and the race is 1/4 the odds a place
I'd be tempted to use this bet many times before March
Anytime I see a horse I like suitable for an each way double
To use that bet with Faugheen in the Champion Hurdle

I mention this today for one reason
There are a few horses running today that fit the bill
There are a lot of horses around 9/4-5/2
That have outstanding chances of winning
Yet also look very safe for a place as well

Today I could go with any of a few each way doubles
Equally I am tempted to use them with Faugheen as well
If we can get a few of these right around now
And come March you will have a very exciting bet

These 3 horses look suitable candidates
For each way doubles if not each way singles

Lingfield 12.40 - HAPPY CALL 5/2

Lingfield 2.15 - REAL SMART 9/4

Thurles 2.25 - TTEBBOB 9/4

This is not something I'd be interested in on the accounts
I'd have no problem with them in my personal betting

With my own personal betting
I'd quite like to start to build up money on Faugheen at 15/8

But in terms of today
Having rejected some obvious each way options
Because they are shorter prices
I am going with a bigger priced horse as my bet


Lingfield 3.20

FAINTLY 13/2

Each Way

I really think this horse is about to win soon
My dilemma today is whether to stake this

My statistics give the bet Luke warm support
They agree with the selection without being excited

Two things I don't like about the bet
FAINTLY is only a small horse
I try very hard to avoid staking bets on small horses

The favourite in the race also worries me
This horse is Tee It Up Tommo 7/2
I don't like his profile much
But he has been an enormous gamble
And backed with 3 other stablemates
All the subject of a massive big priced coup
I go into details of this coup later in the message

When this happens the rules of the game can change
You could get non runners
You could get horses deliberately given quiet runs
Some connection scared to try and win the race now
Others deliberately deciding to wait another day

Ask yourself this
If you owned FAINTLY and planned a gamble today
Would the enormous gamble on another horse in the race
Make you rethink and go with the bet another day
It would me

We do not know how safe the race actually is now
If the favourite pulls out we get a massive rule 4
If the gamble is landed we don't know what were up against

This makes me very cautious
It is enough to stop me advising a bet

Besides that there is another small problem
Not sure whether today is the day for FAINTLY
I think he is now a horse to follow
When running like today over a mile or more
Just not sure whether today is the time to strike

So one a day with some really interesting issues
I am leaving the account alone
I am ignoring all my each way double options
I am suggesting you consider Faugheen
If you have any interest in these sorts of bets

But for my best bet today
A horse I am definitely betting myself
But not staking on the account


Lingfield 3.20

FAINTLY 13/2

Each Way







D a i l y N e g a t i v e s

No Negative Today

Results of Negatives
20 correct bets from 25




W e d n e s d a y 's S u m m a r y

Non committal message yesterday just going on
a wander around a few races. I probably should
have done a bit better than I did. Unlucky a few
times with seconds and outsiders pipping us in
a few races. The overall impression is that this
is very much a time of year where there are so
many known unknowns especially over hurdles
and fences. We just need to tread cautiously in
a lot of races especially in bad ground and this
is a time of year where not much is as it seems.



P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s




NATIONAL HUNT


Sheena West

This trainer has 4 runners today
All 4 horses have been very heavily backed

Wincanton 1.20 Fintan 10/1 into 100/30

Wincanton 1.50 Landscape 25/1 into 5/1

Lingfield 3.20 - Tee It Up Tommo 14/1 into 2/1

Lingfield 3.50 - Well Painted 10/1 to /1


Fintan was 10/1 in the Racing Post
He is 12 and hasn't raced in 424 days
Yet half the money bet on this race yesterday was on him
He has now gone from 10/1 to 100/30

Landscape is 25/1 in the Racing Post
Well backed last night into 5/1 and first run for the yard

Tee It Up Tommo has been backed despite a long break
This horse was backed in the offices yesterday afternoon
He was 14/1 yesterday and now only 7/2 is left

Well Painted is another significantly backed horse

It will be very interesting to see how all 4 run



THURLES

Nothing much I want to do with this card
Too many hot "Prospects" at short prices

In the Thurles 12.25 Moyle Park returns
He was seen as a 2014 Neptune Hurdle prospect
High absence but only has a couple to beat
My issue with him is whether 2m 2f will suit on this ground
I have read that this horse is better on quick ground
He is also a future 3m Chaser
None of this may stop him winning
But given the ground and distance
Given the race has no strength in depth
I would prefer TTEBBOB each way at 5/2
I will understand if that bet makes you feel sick
It does me too but on paper that is the bet I feel

Sir Des Champs returns as well in the 12.55
Willie Mullins says he will probably need the run
Hard to know how much that is from a forked tongue
Lyreen Legend is another high class returner
He is probably better value but no idea what wins
Mullins has 2 long odds on chances later on the care
Just not a card I feel I can do too much with




Market Rasen 12.30

5/2 Western Miller, 11/4 Fact Of The Matter
7/2 Barney Dwan, 4/1 Oldgrangewood
14/1 Amiral Collonges, 20/1 Kara Tara, 20/1 Speredek
25/1 Down The Line, 33/1 Isla Di Milano
200/1 Bold Prince Rupert.

This is a Novice Hurdle
There may just be 4 horses running for 3 places

I see OLDGRANGEWOOD as the weak link
Don't want an unraced horse by Central Park
Not running over hurdles first time when unraced
I have my doubts he will get home

WESTERN MILLER has the best profile
Courtesy of a recent win
Not a big horse though and he won a poor race
Statistically I should be siding with him
But given his size and the frame of the race
And his price I am looking elsewhere
You can only take a guess and this is that guess

FACT OF THE MATTER 11/2 Each Way




Lingfield 12.40

5/4 Dark Shot, 7/2 Happy Call, 5/1 Sir Roger Moore
8/1 Vroom, 10/1 Kerry Icon, 12/1 Time Again
20/1 Golden Kingdom, 40/1 Gorgeous Geezer.

Uncompetitive 2yo maiden race

3 disappointing horses dominate the market
I think one of these should win
Comes down to which you can trust
I don't trust DARK SHOT at a short price

SIR ROGER MOORE is an each way option
He was distressed in the paddock before his last run
HAPPY CALL is my preference
These is a case for an each way burglary bet

HAPPY CALL 5/2

Each Way




W i n c a n t o n 1.20

2/1 Very Intense, 4/1 Duke´s Affair, 7/1 Shot In The Dark
8/1 Taste The Wine, 8/1 Thepartysover, 10/1 Fintan
10/1 Tenby Jewel, 12/1 Spin Cast, 14/1 Positive Vibes
33/1 Watchmetail, 40/1 Sun Quest.

This is a 2m 4f Handicap Hurdle

I mentioned earlier about Sheena West's FINTAN
How he has been very well backed
That complicates the race now
I don't want to trust the favourite
VERY INTENSE is a 4 year old
He drops from a 3m race to a 2m 4f race
He does that after an absence of just 7 days
That just feels wrong and unsafe
I decided to see if any 4yo's had done this before

4 year olds
Running over 2m 4f or shorter
Any and every Kind of National Hunt race
Any time of year
Coming from 3m or further
Those that ran within 11 days were 0-35
This has never been done before
I am not surprised by that but 0-35 isn't a strong stat
Many were big prices and several came 2nd or 3rd
Still it puts me off Very Intense
VERY INTENSE is opposed

I didn't want to commit to FINTAN despite the gamble
But the obvious choice DUKE'S AFFAIR has ground issues
Perhaps there is room for both

£3 Each Way DUKE'S AFFAIR 7/1

£4 Win FINTAN 7/2




L i n g f i e l d 2.15

15/8 Fallen For A Star, 3/1 Mr Quicksilver
3/1 Real Smart, 6/1 China Girl, 10/1 Tseo, 16/1 Kawartha
33/1 Polly Garter, 50/1 Sparky.

This is a 10f maiden race
I fancy REAL SMART around 9/4
I loved him on his debut
On the back of that run I went for him 2nd time out
He could only finish 3rd that day
He was beaten on his 3rd and 4th runs
I couldn't do previews in either of those races
I may have dodged a couple of bullets there
Today could well be the day
There are dangers not all easy to rate
REAL SMART is also quite hard to nail down
Not sure what individual characteristics he has
Why he has failed to win now in 4 races
But I haven't given up on him
Ideally I'd prefer an each way single at 5/2
That may be wishful thinking now
The option is a win bet at 9/4
Or some each way doubles

Selection

REAL SMART





L i n g f i e l d 3.20

9/2 Farham, 5/1 Presumido, 11/2 Faintly
6/1 Rememberance Day, 13/2 Leonard Thomas
7/1 Shifting Star, 9/1 Ravenous, 10/1 Tee It Up Tommo
14/1 Aspasius, 16/1 La Roumegue.

This is a handicap over a Mile for 0-75 rated horses
There are 259 similar races at this time of year

There are a few profiles I can oppose
I looked at 4 year old fillies
Those that had under 9 runs were 0-28
LA ROUMEGUE only has 3 runs
No filly like her won from a maiden so she's out
REMEMBERANCE DAY is a 4yo filly up in distance
Fillies aged 4 doing this were 1-41
That winner had a more recent run
I think she is beatable going up in distance
SHIFTING STAR is 10 and was thrashed last time
No horse as old as that has won after a poor run
It would be unusual and disappointing if he did
FARHAM is a 3 year old
He has raced just 3 times before and only once this year
That worries me a lot as this profile shows
Horses aged 3
Under 5 Career starts
Running in the past 5 months
Horses with this profile had a 1-70 record
Mae 3 year olds with this profile were 0-40
The only winner was a filly with more runs that year
It is a big ask to win this with 1 run in 14 months
ASPASIUS is another 3 year old
Hardly ideal he comes from a hurdle race
He was hammered in that race
It was his only run since April 2015 some 221 days ago
He looks underraced to me
He is also having his first run for anew stable
It's an upgrade in trainer but I am overlooking that
Chances are they will want to have a quiet look at him
TEE IT UP TOMMO is 6 and absent 133 days
Horses aged 5 or more absent 99 + days are 0-52
TEE IT UP TOMMO comfortably fails that
I don't want a horse with a long absence his age
Not when he was sold for just a Grand this year
Mind you he has been backed like a certainty

LEONARD THOMAS is a 5 year old
He has an absence of over a month
He also has to come up from a 7f race
If I look at 5 year olds from 7f or shorter
With an absence of over a month there is a 1-26 record
That winner was many years ago though
He does look well treated
Not as well treated as he is on turf though
Win lose or draw it's no a great profile
He has been beaten in lower grade races recently

PRESUMIDO could pop up
He comes here after a heavy defeat though
That damages his profile quite a bit
But I am not ruling him out
Because the 2010 winner of this race was similar

RAVENOUS is 4 and drops from 10f
As a profile I can not rule him out
I think he has enough to shortlist

I fancy FAINTLY here with some reservations
Not the biggest horse which is a problem for me
He also has 37 days off the track but there are positives
I can match him to a winner so his profile is fine
FAINTLY is sired by Kitten´s Joy
This is a brilliant sire who is all about stamina
You want to avoid betting his runners at 7f and shorter
He's never bred a 5f of 6f winner in the UK
You want to bet him only over a mile or more
He gets a few 2 year old winners over 7f
Only one horse aged 3 or more has won short of a mile
None have done so aged 4 or more
FAINTLY is a 4 year old now
His last 3 races were over 7 furlongs
None his age and older by Kitten´s Joy have won under a mile
The trip has been too short for him
Last time at Wolverhampton over 7f he was drawn 12 of 12
That was the worst draw and he was forced very wide
He made interesting late headway to finish never nearer
I think he had fitness excuses before that
Maybe he is not completely fit today
But he has been dropped in the handicap
His numbers suggest he is very well handicapped

Selection

FAINTLY 13/2

Each Way






A n t e P o s t


Newbury

Saturday 14th November

Hennessy Gold Cup Chase

Coneygree (4),Saphir Du Rheu (5), Smad Place (10),
Bobs Worth (12), The Druids Nephew (16), The Young Master (16),
Vroum Vroum Mag (16), Pendra, Valseur Lido (20), Don Cossack (25),
Don Poli (25), Dynaste (25), Fingal Bay, Houblon Des Obeaux (25),
If In Doubt (25), Just A Par (25), Ned Stark (25), Sam Winner (25),
Sausalito Sunrise (25), Unioniste (28) , Ballynagour (33)
Kings Palace (33), Monetaire (33), Rocky Creek, Southfield Theatre (33),
The Giant Bolster (33), Urano (33), Virak (33). Others 40/1 +


SAPHIR DU RHEU is a Paul Nicholls 6yo

There have been 5 winners aged 6 sine 1990
They are better with a recent run and he has that
They are best with under 8 Chase runs and winning last time
SAPHIR DU RHEU also has that profile so there are positives
My problem with him is this
The 5 winners aged 6 had official ratings of 147 145 142 140 135
The highest rating they won off was 147
SAPHIR DU RHEU has to carry a rating of 163
That's 16lbs higher than any 6 year old in decades
It's not impossible he could end up with Topweight
There is also a slight stamina doubt
SAPHIR DU RHEU has won a 3m 1f Chase at Aintree on Good
Unproven over further
None of his sire's runners have won over further either
You can argue a World Hurdle 2nd takes stamina doubts away
Maybe so but you have to combine that with 2 factors
A big weight and the highest mark a 6yo has had in decades


SMAD PLACE is an Alan King 8yo

He is close enough to past 8yo winners for safety
They all raced that season and had 14 16 11 13 Chase runs
SMAD PLACE has 9 Chase runs and I don't mind that
Generally his statistical profile is acceptable
I have two issues with SMAD PLACE
Stamina and field size
If you look at his races over 3m 0.5f and more
SMAD PLACE has a 0-9 record over a distance this far
It included defeats at 10/11 11/4 15/8 5/1 5/1 6/1
If you look at his runs over 3m 2f and more
One was a 20 length defeat in this race last year
The other a 27 length defeat in the Gold Cup
Not conclusive proof but it does raise a question
Can we be sure SMAD PLACE will stay this far ?
His sire has bred 1 horse proven over 3m1f
That was Nacarat who didn't stay this far
None of the sire's other runners won over further
I think there is a genuine stamina doubt

SMAD PLACE also looks a possible small field horse
His 3 Chase wins came in fields of 5 4 6 runners
His record in fields of 11 or more is just 1-11
He has won a 15 runner Novice Hurdle
But he was a long odds on 1/4 favourite that day
He set the pace that day and missed the traffic
He has a RSA Chase 2nd with 15 runners
Only 10 finished the race and it was a weak renewal
I just don't see him relishing a big field race in this class

BOBS WORTH

He won this race 3 years ago
His problem is he is a 10 year old
The last winner aged 10 was back in 1981
He was the only 10yo winner since 1967
Since 1988 horses aged 10 or more are 0-65 in this race
That is a big worry for a horse with past problems
He won over hurdles last time but no recent winner did that


Early Conclusions

Coneygree - Could be a Saver
Saphir Du Rheu - Hoping to find a better option
Smad Place - Stamina and a big world are worries
Bobs Worth - I can't justify a 10 year old


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