0 Account Bet
0 Selection
0 Profile & Preview bet
0 Negative
3 Races Discussed


Traditionally today has always been a short and quiet
message. Most years there are very few previews in
this Wednesday's message and that is partly down to
big fields at Nottingham and Salisbury. Again today is
probably a good day to gently back off a bit and avoid
taking unnecessary risks. It is a long week and I'm not
looking to find any more trouble than already exists.



T o d a y ' s M e s s a g e


A Timely reminder yesterday how this game bites us
when we have no reason to fear it. I don't want to go
with a bet today. I had 3 previews to choose bets from.

I rejected all three

The aim is simply a Non staked bet that doesn't lose

I thought all 3 previews were each way double options

I then decided the first two previews were best

I was tempted by a 2pm and 2.40pm each way double

Chepstow 2.00 - Potters Corner 5/4

Kempton 2.40 - Cacica 5/2



Then I thought why not just have an each way single

Kempton 2.40

CACICA 5/2

Each Way


I think that is my safest bet.
Not everyone will like the outrageous staking
Those that don't may prefer that each way double
The 2pm and 2.40pm previews can offer this

Either way I liked yesterdays bet more


I want to let yesterdays loser flush through the
mental vile ducts before going for the next bet.
It has not done that yet.

No Official Bets




D a i l y N e g a t i v e s

No Negative Today

Results of Negatives

20 correct bets from 24




T u e s d a y s S u m m a r y

BROKOPONDO was a loser and it took me quite
a while after the race to wonder how he did not
get placed. He has hit the front inside the home
straight. He went odds on in running and 1.03 to
place and looked like winning it in a 4 way battle
to the line. We've only beaten just over a length
and not got placed. A savage result considering
we looked like we were outstaying them all so it
was a little painful. Maybe we did too much work
in getting to a challenging position and we came
on the outside so perhaps he lost it there. After
the race I asked myself how on earth has he not
got placed and the first email received seconds
later said exactly the same. It was pure savagery.



P r o f i l e & P r e v i e w s




C h e p s t o w 2.00

9/4 Potters Corner, 9/4 Western Xpress
7/1 Arthur´s Gift, 10/1 Winterlude, 12/1 Buy Me Out
12/1 Loch Garman, 12/1 Tried And Tested, 14/1 Denboy
14/1 The Bank Manager, 33/1 Kelsey, 50/1 Seeanythingyoulike
66/1 Right On Roy, 100/1 Derrymix, 100/1 Prince Mahler.

This is a Maiden Hurdle over 2m 4f
WESTERN XPRESS is 2nd favourite rated 116
Has to be prominent in the betting
Not really the correct type of horse I'd want

September and October
Any Maiden Hurdle
Any Distance in these 2 Months

Horses aged 7 or more
Coming from a Hurdle race
Absent more than 80 days
There was a 1-115 record with these types
The only winner was Alverstone back in 2010
WESTERN XPRESS absent 194 days fails this
Not ideal to risk a 7yo maiden over hurdles
These types tend to come up against a better horse
Hence the 1-115 record so I'm opposing him

WINTERLUDE- I hate his profile
THE BANK MANAGER - I don't want a 4yo from a maiden bumper

The problem is we can't judge all the opposition
ARTHUR´S GIFT is a 4yo from a Bumper
Horses with his profile have a 3-69 record
TRIED AND TESTED is an unraced 4yo
These types can and do win similar races

POTTERS CORNER has the best profile
5 year old from a Graded Bumper last season
12 horses had his profile and 3 won
The overall record of these 12 runners is this
W F 3 W PU 7 2 2 W 2 2 2
Good profile. He was 3rd in the Aintree Bumper
He managed that after a long absence
The 2nd favourite fails a 1-115 statistic
The next 2 in the market are inexperienced 4yo's
POTTERS CORNER looks the strongest option

Selection

POTTERS CORNER 5/4

Win Bet





N o t t i n g h a m 2.40

6/4 Triathlon, 9/4 Cacica, 13/2 Lily Tricks
9/1 Stoney Broke, 11/1 Shafafya, 12/1 Custom
16/1 Reckless Wave, 33/1 Late Show
33/1 Shadow Spirit.

There could be a bit of burglary here
Two horses dominate the market
TRIATHLON 11/10 and CACICA 9/4-5/2
Nothing else seems fancied
TRIATHLON has plenty in his favour and may win
I just wonder if CACICA is a better bet at 9/4 +
You could even bet her each way around 9/4
TRIATHLON is sired by a horse called Hat Trick
Hat Trick did not start racing until he was 4
He has not yet bred a 2yo winner in England (0-15)
He hasn't bred an English winner under 1m 3f yet (0-27)
He has in France to be fair so not a compelling argument
But almost all this sires best horses so far
Didn't win or even run as 2 year olds
She did catch the eye on her debut
But it was a very gentle race and 75 days ago
CACICA is a big strong horse who ran well last time
He blew up and should improve and should go close
I'd rather bet CACICA at the prices
And any 5/2 makes some appeal each way

Selection

CACICA 5/2

Each Way



K e m p t o n 5.40

5/2 Passionada, 9/2 Go Charlie, 11/2 Imjin River
8/1 Go Amber Go, 9/1 Argent Touch, 10/1 Gotasinggotadance
12/1 Foylesideview, 12/1 Wreningham, 14/1 Kinnara
16/1 Anfield.

This is a 5f handicap
Low Grade for horses rated only 0-50
There are 39 of these races at this time of year

Horses aged 3 have a poor 6-140 record
You do not want an inexperienced 3 year old
Horses aged 3 with under 9 runs were just 1-46
None of them had under 4 runs
GOTASINGGOTADANCE is a 3yo filly with just 3 runs
She looks too inexperienced
GO AMBER GO has exactly the same problem
Neither have raced over 5f before either

GO CHARLIE is an exposed 4 year old
Not a bad profile but he may well want 6f
His best numbers are over 6f
If you look at his sire Myboycharlie
His runners over 5f are just 1-68
None have won on sand over 5f
Horses aged 3 or more from this sire
Have a 0-33 record running over 5f
He keeps missing the break too
This is sharper than his last run
It will probably catch him out again

FOYLESIDEVIEW is 3 and drops from 6f
KINNARA is 3 and drops from 6f
Horses aged 3 doing this had an unimpressive 2-71 record
Those 2 winners had 9 or fewer starts
Those that had 10 or more runs were 0-40
FOYLESIDEVIEW fails this statistic
KINNARA fails this statistic
Neither have any 5f form on Sand either
WRENINGHAM is a 10 year old
He hasn't raced in 33 days
He has raced just once in 8 months
I doubt he will be fit enough
ANFIELD isn't running well enough
She doesn't have big enough numbers

IMJIN RIVER is an 8yo
He comes from a 5f race in the last fortnight
Horses with his profile were 0-7
Not a strong profile but he is fit
He should be thereabouts
I don't like his draw in stall 10 though
72 races over 5f here since 2013
Horses drawn 10 or more won just 1 of those
Only 2 winners came from Stalls 9 or higher
ARGENT TOUCH is an exposed 4yo
He comes from a 5f race
There were 4 winners with this profile
They were all beaten 5 or fewer lengths last time
ARGENT TOUCH was beaten twice that distance
I needed a better last run to match him to a winner
He has a low strike rate and may want a smaller field
He's never run here before either

PASSIONADA is topweight
She faces a 0-48 class field
She has been running herself into form and fitness
This time last year she was rated a lot higher
High enough to be ineligible for this race
He ran well last time from a bad draw
He had the most in hand that day and wasn't ridden well
He should reverse the form with 2 horses
He should beat Go Charlie over this sharper test
He should beat Imjin River as today the draw favours him

Selection

PASSIONADA 5/2

Win Bet

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