0 Account Bet
1 Selection
0 Profile & Preview bets
0 Negatives
5 Races Discussed


First message of the week and although a couple
of tracks today like Ayr and Wetherby are courses
I prefer to avoid I have found 5 races that I liked.


Today's Selection


Wolverhampton 6.40

DUKE STREET 2/1

Win Bet

2/1 Hills Ladbrokes Corals Stan J
2/1 PPower VC Boyles
15/8 Bet365 Tote Betfred




T o d a y s R a c i n g


5 previews

Ayr 2.00
Windsor 6.30
Wolverhampton 6.40
Windsor 7.30
Killarney 7.50


Windsor 7.30 - Noble Peace 11/10
Killarney 7.50 - David's Jewel 2/1

These two horses had some sort of promise
To be honest I have gone a bit cold on both now
Both are shorter than I wanted
As a potential Bet I am abandoning both
I see this pair as an each way double now
Not one I'd want to stake but a good fit together


Ayr 2.00 - Dutch Heiress 7/2 Each Way

I feel there is promise in this bet
Plenty to like and 7/2 is probably a very fair price
Quite a bit I can't know about the race though
I also don't like that the favourite is a positive too
Not a bet I have convinced myself to stake

Windsor 6.30 - Hillgrove Angel 8/11

I liked 2 here and 1 of them is a non runner
This has left Hillgrove Angel at odds on
Not interested at odds on with a slight stamina issue
I think every other runner is a good negative though
I can't see what will beat him but at 8/11 I can leave him


Wolverhampton 6.40 - DUKE STREET 2/1 Win Bet

I think he should win
Doesn't come with any each way cover though as a bet
That said 2/1 each way appeals a lot to me personally
Hardly Bear Grylls staking but e/w at 2/1 pleases me
Not that I will inflict that on you today
I think his rivals all had something to prove






D a i l y N e g a t i v e s

No Bet

Results of Negatives

16 correct bets from 18




S u n d a y s S u m m a r y

It was a No bet 4 preview message and the
lack of credible opportunities in races that
I'm good at like Novice and Maiden hurdles
left me cautious yesterday. The 4 previews
went L L W L so a small loss for those that
followed the message. The only bet I liked
was the 3.25 at Stratford. Frustrating really.

My 3 shortlist included the 1st 3rd and 4th
yet we did not get any returns. We had the
1st and 2nd favourites as negatives so we
were right in opposing those and we came
very close to getting the race right. It was
just the final choice and staking. Not that
bad an effort but I am glad I didn't stake it.

That was down to not really knowing much
about the individual horses involved and
how far I could rely on them. It was really
just a flat and uninspired message but we
had the winner on Saturday and at least it
was a message where we gave little back.



P r o f i l e & P r e v i e w s



A y r 2.00

11/4 New Caledonia, 11/4 Stylish Boy
7/2 Dutch Heiress, 8/1 New Hope, 10/1 My Two Scoops
10/1 Robinnielly, 14/1 Meister, 16/1 Toboggan´s Fire
25/1 The Knave, 25/1 Zealous, 33/1 Granite City Doc.

This is a 2yo maiden over 7f
This should be between 4-55 runners
I looked at all 7f maidens for 2 year olds at Ayr since 2004
There were 9 unraced horses winning
These 9 winners were drawn 3 1 4 2 11 1 3 2 3
Unraced horses drawn 5 or more were 1-60
NEW CALEDONIA is unraced drawn 9
MY TWO SCOOPS is unraced drawn 11
Not sure how strong that statistic is
I'd far rather have an experienced low drawn horse
ROBINNIELLY did not do enough on his debut

STYLISH BOY sets a reasonable standard
His trainer said before his debut he'd need the run

NEW HOPE was expensive finishing 9th on his debut
He looks a big horse badly in need of that run
He will have ability but can he improve enough today

DUTCH HEIRESS has the most experience
Plenty to like about her profile
Filly with 3 runs from a 7f maiden
Running 10-14 days ago
Starting under 50/1
Horses with her profile had a 4-7 record
She could well be the best bet each way

Selection

DUTCH HEIRESS 7/2

Each Way




W i n d s o r 6.30

Evs Hillgrove Angel, 7/2 Helmsman, 4/1 Fridge Kid
7/1 Activation, 16/1 Rosie Prospects, 25/1 Seamoor Secret.

This is a 10f selling race for 3-4 year olds
Only a tiny field but few can win
I don't think ACTIVATION will get home
Not after an absence
FRIDGE KID has a weak profile
Very much on the inexperienced side
I can't bet a 3yo with just 1 run this season

HILLGROVE ANGEL should win if he stays

Selection

HILLGROVE ANGEL 4/6

Win Bet



W o l v e r h a m p t o n 6.40

11/4 Poetic License, 3/1 Duke Street, 4/1 Idle Talker
13/2 Illya Kuryakin, 8/1 Ocean Bentley, 12/1 Safira Menina
12/1 Ultima Ora, 25/1 Mistral, 33/1 Rebel Smile.

This is a 3yo handicap around 14f
I am interested in opposing horses with 3 runs
POETIC LICENSE has just 3 career starts

I looked at every handicap in July for 3 year olds
That was run over 1m 5f or more
Horses with 3 runs did win in higher grade races
None however managed it in 0-75 class or lower
This is only a 0-57 Class race
July Handicaps for 3 year olds
Run over 1m 5f or more in 0-75 Class or lower
Horses with under 4 career starts are 0-61
POETIC LICENSE fails this 0-61 statistic
He also has just 1 run this season

ULTIMA ORA isn't running well enough

There are 46 similar races in July
Fillies absent more than 4 weeks were 0-50
SAFIRA MENINA fails that absent 83 days
Not for me having been sold cheaply
Surely a huge stamina doubt as well by Paco Boy

IDLE TALKER surely must bring stamina doubts
He is sired by a Sprinter who has no winners past 10f
From a 3yo seller I am not drawn to him

ILLYA KURYAKIN probably has a chance
Even despite downgrading stables recently
Not particularly drawn to him or his profile

DUKE STREET has the best profile
He has experience and fitness on side
Has already won a better race at this track
I feel he should have too much for these

Selection

DUKE STREET 2/1

Win Bet





W i n d s o r 7.30

2/1 Noble Peace, 5/1 Inland Sea, 6/1 Grizzly Bear
7/1 Destroyer, 7/1 Gaspirali, 9/1 Irish Eclare, 10/1 Approcaillis
16/1 Essenaitch, 20/1 Nutbourne Lad, 20/1 Zlatan
25/1 Zebedee´s Son, 33/1 Under The Covers
50/1 Maddys Dream, 100/1 Fine Share.

This is a 6f maiden
If you look at 6f maidens at Windsor
Unraced horses drawn 8 or higher underperform
They do have the odd winner though
APPROCAILLIS has to go unraced drawn 14
I wouldn't be too confident about ruling others out

GASPIRALI is unraced and drawn 10
He is clearly fancied in the market
I can not say that an unraced horse can't win drawn 10+
The last 6f maiden here went to an unraced winner drawn 9
I can't rule GASPIRALI out even drawn 10 on his debut

ESSENAITCH hasn't done enough on the numbers

GRIZZLY BEAR - Not first choice but 12/1 + is fair value

DESTROYER wouldn't be my first choice either
Not starting 100/1 in a Group 2 race at Ascot
His last two numbers will need improving on
INLAND SEA is respected as a well drawn debutant
IRISH ECLARE is respected as a well drawn debutant

NOBLE PEACE looks the best bet
Good debut run at Goodwood
It produced the best Racing Post Rating in this race
He is a strong powerfully made colt
Went down in a photo to a far more experienced horse
The 3rd has come out and won since
With improvement he should go quite close
I feel he is best played in an each way double

Selection

NOBLE PEACE 6/4




K i l l a r n e y 7.50

9/4 Davids Jewel, 4/1 The Brock Inn, 6/1 Loyalty Card
6/1 Thinklike A Shrink, 10/1 Kris Kindle, 10/1 Madaboy Cross
10/1 Who Told Jan, 12/1 Lenora, 12/1 Troubled Soul
20/1 Amron Kali, 25/1 Lucky Wager, 33/1 Sliaibin
50/1 Flirtatious Annie.

This is a Mares Maiden hurdle over 2m 4f

Look at Mares maiden hurdles in July over 2m 1f +
There are 53 of these races
Horses aged 4 had a 5-51 record
These 5 winners had 8 10 7 3 3 previous hurdle runs
Horses aged 4 with under 3 hurdle runs are 0-28

LOYALTY CARD fails that 0-28 record with 1 hurdle run
THE BROCK INN fails that 0-28 record with 2 hurdle runs
Horses aged 4 with under 10 lifetime starts struggled
They were 1-27 and that winner had 3 hurdle runs
LOYALTY CARD and THE BROCK INN fail this too

This is far more interesting
Mares Maiden Hurdles over 2m 1f and more
Run in June July August
Horses aged 4
Under 3 previous Hurdle runs
There is a miserable 1-117 record with these horses
LOYALTY CARD fails this 1-117 statistic
THE BROCK INN fails this 1-117 statistic

THINKLIKE A SHRINK comes from a Bumper
Horses from Bumpers had a modest 6-242 record
Those that raced within 3 weeks were 0-61
THINKLIKE A SHRINK fails that running 8 days ago
She may win but her profile suggests she wont

WHO TOLD JAN comes from a Bumper
She has past hurdles form but is not like a winner
Not as a 5 year old absent 83 days
TROUBLED SOUL was hammered 10 days ago
He didn't do enough last time out

LENORA is 7 absent 277 days with 6 hurdle runs
I can find a 7yo absent 167 days with 7 hurdle runs
She is absent 110 days longer though
Not a strong profile but respected

MADABOY CROSS has a modest profile
KRIS KINDLE has an average profile
Both shortlistable but not exact matches
DAVIDS JEWEL looks the strongest runner

Selection

DAVIDS JEWEL 7/4

Win Bet

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