0 Account Bet
1 Selection
5 Profiles/Preview bets
9 Races Discussed

Today's Selection


Gowran Park 1.40

SOMETHINGWONDERFUL 7/1

EACH WAY


Five meetings this Saturday with plenty of variety.
Ascot must be disappointed at the small fields and
nothing tempts me there. Plenty of other races we
can have a look at. There is a message tomorrow
but there are lots of smaller fields so it remains to
be seen whether there will be anything interesting.


Profiles and Previews Selections

Gowran Park 1.40 - Somethingwonderful 8/1 Each Way

Lingfield 2.00 - Teolagi 7/1 Each Way
Lingfield 2.00 - Very Good Day 11/2 Saver

Haydock 2.20 - At Fishers Cross 11/8 Win Bet

Wincanton 3.05 - Arkaim 7/1 Win Bet

Lingfield 3.45 - Melvin The Grate 7/2 Win Bet
Lingfield 3.45 - Tigers Tale 11/2 Saver Bet


Some of the bets have no place to hide and there
is no comfort blanket for a few of them in terms of
needing luck in running or no each way safety.

Melvin The Grate will need luck in running
Arkaim is in a 7 runner race so there is no each way
At Fishers Cross has no place to hide today
Somethingwonderful has to jump better than ever
They all have good reasons why they can be backed
I don't often have this many bets in difficult framed races

I wanted 1 selection and 4 profile & preview bets

At Fishers Cross is too short to stake hard
Melvin The Grate didn't appeal enough
Came down to a choice of the biggest 3 prices

Somethingwonderful 8/1 Each Way
Teolagi 7/1 Each Way + Saver
Arkaim 7/1 Win Bet

Teolagi could be a option but its scrappy
I like ARKAIM but 7 runners and all have chances
It really isn't my kind of bet on the account

May be a mistake but I do like the Irish Bet most

Gowran Park

SOMETHINGWONDERFUL 7/1

EACH WAY


We will know our fate early today




F r i d a y 's S u m m a r y

Another fabulous day yesterday with the late night
winner HEADLONG backed from 7/1 to 7/2 winning
to add to a ridiculously good record since October.
I have always been self critical if underperforming
and the first to accept responsibility but in the past
5 months you are witnessing a man at peace with
the racing and the message structure. I write lots
of rubbish and it takes time to adjust to the format
but the results have been exceptional and it must
be evidence that I have improved in interpreting
angles better now than ever before. The 2nd bet
was a split stake and they finished 1st and 2nd so
a small profit only there as the saver won the race.



P r o f i l e s a n d P r e v i e w s


L i n g f i e l d 1.25

9/4 El Che, 3/1 Limerick Lord, 4/1 Autumn Tonic
4/1 Ernest, 8/1 Loti, 20/1 Military Music
25/1 Blackasyourhat.

This is a 3yo maiden over 7f
Two horses set a decent standard
AUTUMN TONIC has the ability to win
LIMERICK LORD has the ability to win
The problem is both drop from 7f to 5f
The only winner doing that was female
Both this pair are males
Not a strong stat as no fancied males tried this
This pair have to be seen as Neutrals

I am certainly not switching to EL CHE
EL CHE is sired by Winker Watson
Always keen to oppose this sires horses
The sire never trained on and his 3yo score badly
He's not an option with regressive numbers
LOTI has a lot to prove. Didn't persuade me

ERNEST was a complete flop first time out
He was made favourite that day so still needs respect
Not sure he will be streetwise enough

My problem with LIMERICK LORD is the trip
His sire never won over 5f
He has yet to breed a 5f winner either
AUTUMN TONIC may have more speed
He has the best numbers in the race

Selection

AUTUMN TONIC 13/8

Win Bet





G o w a n P a r k 1.40

6/4 Upazo, 4/1 Lord Adare, 5/1 Toubaloo, 6/1 Asitsohappens
7/1 Somethingwonderful, 12/1 Big Kern, 16/1 Rory O´moore
33/1 Posh Frock, 50/1 Inch Rock, 66/1 Strange Ways
100/1 Definite Venture, 100/1 Le Bandari.

This is a 2m 2f Beginners Chase
UPAZO is a seasonal debutant
He has no chasing experience
I looked at all February Novice/Beginners Chases 2m-2m4f
Looked at seasonal debutants with no chasing experience
There were 8 of these winners
They all had under 9 lifetime starts
They all had under 8 hurdle runs
Those that had more were 0-34
UPAZO fails this 0-34 statistic
He looks a bit too exposed for a Chasing debutant
Rule out Willie Mullins at your peril
The horse could be anything but my angles say avoid
POSH FROCK is rejected for similar reasons

We have to guess for a selection

BIG KERN is the right kind of seasonal debutant
Small stable though and may want further

ASITSOHAPPENS has raced once over fences
Well beaten but hard to read as there was low viability
I looked at similar 7 year olds
I can find a winner with a similar profile
Trouble is this is a small stable
There career record with horses in Chases is 0-34

LORD ADARE is an option despite 1 chase run 1 fall

TOUBALOO has a reasonable each way chance
You can only fancy him on 1 of his 4 chase runs
That was last time out thought so he's respected

SOMETHINGWONDERFUL has a fair chance
He fell in both his 1st and 2nd Chase start
Some argue he was very disappointing on his 3rd Chase run
I disagree. He was outclassed by a better stablemate
He jumped quite well which was important
I suspect he was there purely to come home safely
He had fallen twice in a row so a clear round mattered
I don't think he was there to do his best
He may not have stayed 2m 4f anyway
SOMETHINGWONDERFUL has a 130 Racing Post Chase rating
The next best in the race is way behind on 118
Not too relevant as many haven't tried fences yet
I do think he's been keeping better company though

Selection

SOMETHINGWONDERFUL 8/1

EACH WAY


* Not sure if a win bet would be safer
* I nearly had that with a saver
* I couldn't decide which to save on
* Lord Adare or Toubaloo both looked good savers
* In the end I decided to bet the selection each way





L i n g f i e l d 2.00

3/1 Take Two, 7/2 Daydreamer, 9/2 Very Good Day
6/1 Persepolis, 6/1 Softsong, 10/1 Swift Blade
10/1 Teolagi, 20/1 Purple Sage.

This is a 12f handicap
There are 104 similar races in February
Scrappy race with a variety of different types
Not over confident here with some national hunt types
Horses that came from Hurdles or Chases were just 2-99
Those doing this in the last 8 weeks were 0-62
SOFTSONG fails this coming from a recent chase
DAYDREAMER also fails this from a 4yo hurdle race
My angles tell me to look elsewhere
Only 2 winners won when absent over 5 months
None did this as old as SWIFT BLADE
PURPLE SAGE doesn't look fit enough to me
PERSEPOLIS is 5 and comes from a 10f race
I looked at similar horses that ran within 2 weeks
There was a 1-16 record with these 5 year olds
Those beaten last time out were 0-12
PERSEPOLIS was beaten so he shares that 0-12 profile
With no wins in this Class before I can resist him

Shortlist

TEOLAGI - hard to read. Tops my numbers.

VERY GOOD DAY is 8 and comes from a 2m race
That's not too bad a profile
I found 3 winners his age doing that with a recent run
Two of these did come in Amateur races though
There is a horse that won one of these races (Overrule)

TAKE TWO has a solid and safe profile with a recent run

Racing Post Ratings
All Weather runs at 12f

89 Teolagi
85 Teolagi
83 Very Good Day
80 Take Two
72 Take Two - Daydreamer
71 Daydreamer
70 Persepolis

Trappy race to call. TAKE TWO has never raced here
before which is a worry. TEOLAGI has better numbers
as well. I think he may well be the value. His last three
races produced 2 good numbers. These numbers are
the best 12f all weather numbers in the race as well.

* 3 runs ago he was facing an absence off 11 months
* I think he needed the run that day
* 2 runs ago he unseated rider when hampered
* He would not have been fit that day either
* Last time he finished last of 4 horses
* He probably still needed the race last time
* His 4 opponents were rated 87 88 and 93
* His highest rated opponent today is only rated 82
* Last time he ran to his market position as 4th favourite
* Not beaten far or knocked about
* I think he has a live chance

Selection

TEOLAGI 7/1 Each Way

VERY GOOD DAY 11/2 Saver



H a y d o c k 2.20

10/11 At Fishers Cross, 5/1 Land Of Vic
11/2 Seeyouatmidnight, 7/1 Milansbar
9/1 Closing Ceremony, 12/1 Barafundle.

This is a Graded race over 3m
There will be plenty of people who could not trust
favourite AT FISHERS CROSS given he has lost 8
races in a row. He hasn't looked a happy horse so
I can understand why some don't like him. However
I think it is now pretty obvious he is operating at a
level below Grade 1 but that should still be enough
to win this. If you look at all his Racing Post Ratings
since he started his losing run they look respectable.

156 156 153 159 166 156 154 148 150

Many of these were in Grade 1 races. Some abroad.
Bitter disappointment or not these recent numbers
are consistent and persuasive. LAND OF VIC has a
career best Racing Post Rating of 142 which is not
in the same league and his career best is some way
behind any of AT FISHERS CROSS's runs during a
spell when he never won and LAND OF VIC is also
a mare. SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT hasn't raced in 316
days and may well need the run. BARAFUNDLE is
an 11yo handicapper who just beat MILANSBAR in
a race 4 Grades lower than this. This feels like the
sort of confidence booster AT FISHERS CROSS is
desperately needing. He is odds against but I feel
his should be odds on. It's mainly burnt fingers and
bad reputations that will ensure a better price and
I think he will win. During this recent losing spell
his numbers are still better than his rivals offer.

Selection

AT FISHERS CROSS 11/8

Win Bet




W i n c a n t o n 2.30

7/2 Southfield Vic, 9/2 Serienschock
6/1 Themanfrom Minella 8/1 Cyclop, 9/1 Pride In Battle
12/1 Here´s Herbie, 12/1 Kudu Shine, 12/1 Man Of Leisure
14/1 Letemgo, 16/1 Hawkhill, 16/1 Oscar Prairie

This is a 2m 6f handicap hurdle
Horses aged 9 or more are 0-35 in this race
In 60 similar races at other tracks they are 2-138
MAN OF LEISURE is rejected aged 11
I'd avoid the following 10 year olds
PRIDE IN BATTLE - OSCAR PRAIRIE
KUDU SHINE - HAWKHILL also fail my age stat
I don't want the 4yo CYCLOP up in distance
THEMANFROM MINELLA only has 1 run since October
I ran his profile and He doesn't offer me enough

Shortlist

Southfield Vic - Serienschock
Here´s Herbie - Letemgo

This race has produced plenty of shocks in the past
and I run into a few difficulties here because of little
things such as horses from chases and French form.
I am shortlisting four. I'd probably go each way here
on SOUTHFIELD VIC. His trainer has a smart record
in this race. Lot to be said for staying with big yards.

My best guess is SOUTHFIELD VIC each way at 4/1




H a y d o c k 2.55

9/2 Benvolio, 11/2 Monbeg Dude, 6/1 Broadway Buffalo
8/1 Benbens, 8/1 Samstown, 10/1 Gas Line Boy
10/1 Rigadin De Beauchene, 11/1 Trustan Times
12/1 Lie Forrit, 14/1 Harry The Viking, 14/1 Mountainous
16/1 Loch Ba

* This is a 3m 5f Handicap Chase.
* Haydock's has had 15 renewals of this since 1998
* The race goes back to 1980
* It's the only similar race in February

* Just a few background stats to get us started
* Past winners had the following National Hunt runs
* 22 15 15 23 20 31 21 18 12 18 15 16 10 38 23
* Past winners had the following Chase starts
* 14 5 11 13 11 14 5 5 11 7 6 9 3 28 7
* Horses with 15 or more chase starts are 1-53
* I would prefer 5-14 chase runs ideally
* Past winners had the following runs this season
* Fto 5 2 2 3 4 2 5 3 1 4 Fto 3 3 6
* 13 of the 15 winners had 11st 1lbs or less
* Horses with 11st 2lbs or more were 2-50

* This hasn't been a great race for 7 year olds
* BROADWAY BUFFALO is 7 the youngest horse in the race
* There were 3 winners aged 7 since 1989
* They were all 1st or 2nd last time out
* They all had 10st 6lbs or less weight
* BROADWAY BUFFALO doesn't fit that profile
* He is W W from two runs here
* May not be enough though given his record
* Every time he goes in Listed/Graded class he is unplaced

* There is an interesting trend in this race since 2000
* Horses that ran in Handicap Chases in the last month
* Horses doing this had a 0-56 record
* Technically the 1999 winner did it
* He (Young Kenny) doesn't count though
* He fell at the 1st fence on his last run so didn't have a race
* The implication is a recent handicap chase run is bad news

* SAMSTOWN fails this winning the Peter Marsh
* He will need a career best to win this of 144
* He has 11st 11lbs which is not a good sign
* 17 of the last 20 winners had 11st 1lbs or less
* Horses with 11st 2lbs or more have struggled in that time
* SAMSTOWN is therefore opposed
* BENBENS also has a recent handicap chase run
* He fails that 0-56 statistic as well
* Interesting 3 of his 4 wins came after long absences
* The one that didn't was in a 3 runner race
* The track will suit but he may prefer a smaller field
* BENBENS has yet to win in this class or off his current mark
* I would also question his stamina as well
* Horses like him by Beneficial rarely stay this far
* Ignoring Hunters and Cross Country races
* The Sires runners at 3m 4f and more are just 1-89
* LOCH BA also fails my recent run 0-56 statistic
* Pulling up two weeks ago is not a good sign

* RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE won this first time out last year
* He was also runner up in 2013 so has good history in this
* This year he has at least 14lbs more weight though
* He also has just 1 race this season when pulling up
* Horses with 1 race this year very rarely win this race
* I think that combined with 11st 6lbs will hurt his chance
* 17 of the last 20 winners had 11st 1lbs or less
* He has Pulled up in his last 3 Chases albeit 2 last year
* RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE doesn't appeal much to me

* HARRY THE VIKING is rejected for 2 reasons
* He is 0-10 racing in Class 2 or higher
* His sires runners are 0-44 over 3m 4f or more
* LIE FORRIT is 11 and won last time out
* Since 1991 there were 2 winners aged 11
* Both won last time over a month ago
* LIE FORRIT does match that profile so needs respect
* He does have more weight than both 11yo winners
* That's basically my biggest worry with him
* Go back to 1980 and horses aged 10 + won 10 renewals
* None of these had 11st 4lbs or more
* LIE FORRIT is 11 and has 11st 6lbs
* This is a handicap mark he has never won off before
* His sires never bred a winner beyond 3m 3f before
* He also seems to be a horse that's better when fresh
* There are positives but negative as well

* MOUNTAINOUS pulled up last time
* Not a great preparation but 2 winners did that
* None though were his age
* None did it in the Welsh National either
* MOUNTAINOUS won the 2013 Welsh National
* He ran 4 times in 2014 and disappointed every time
* That's a worry but excuses can easily be made each time
* That tells me not to discount him
* We are short of positives though and he is unsafe
* MONBEG DUDE has a big weight with 11st 11lbs
* I can forgive him that for the same reason as I do Benvolio
* You can argue a career high mark gives him a lot to do
* My only real concern is whether he wants a Flat track
* He excels at Cheltenham and Chepstow
* His Racing Post Ratings on Flat tracks and some way behind
* He was 8/1 in last years race and got beaten 19 lengths
* He hit a Flat spot in last years race
* If he wins it will be in spite of the track which is a worry


Shortlist

* GAS LINE BOY pulled up last time
* That's not a good preparation
* No horse pulling up in the Welsh National has won this
* He is a Course and distance winner
* That came in a lower Grade though
* GAS LINE BOY has only ever won in Class 3 or lower
* He has never won off his current handicap mark either
* He could just fail for a lack of class
* Equally he isn't too far behind and could be a saver

* BENVOLIO has 11st 12lbs with a hard to read profile
* BENVOLIO was 2nd in the Welsh National
* That's a very good trial race for this
* 5 winners did this and 2 of these had 11st 12lbs
* That tells me his weight is not something I can fail him on
* He's hard to read as well as he is sired by Beneficial
* Ignoring Hunters and Cross Country races
* The Sires runners at 3m 4f and more are just 1-89
* However he was beaten a short head in a Welsh National
* Impossible for me to argue that he can't stay either
* My best arguments of weight and stamina don't hold up
* BENVOLIO therefore has to be shortlisted

* TRUSTAN TIMES ran in a handicap hurdle 13 days ago
* Only 1 horse did that and finished 3rd
* I'd be inclined to see that as a positive
* TRUSTAN TIMES was 3rd in a Scottish National
* Plenty of positives but 2 Chase runs this year disappointed
* He is well handicapped and loves the track
* If he can get his jumping together he is a player

Selection

Staked to £10

£7 TRUSTAN TIMES 10/1

£2 BENVOLIO 6/1

£1 GAS LINE BOY 10/1



W i n c a n t o n 3.05

3/1 Cold March, 3/1 Croco Bay, 5/1 My Brother Sylvest
5/1 Tanks For That, 7/1 Keel Haul, 8/1 Arkaim, 10/1 Oscar Hill.

This is a 2m Handicap Chase
This is a Class 2 race and I looked at every race in February
There are 57 of these races

I don't think you want a 5 year old in these races.
Even horses aged 6 have underperformed
COLD MARCH is not a good bet as a 5yo
Only 1 of the 57 winners was aged 5
He won a 0-135 off a handicap mark of 110
This is a 0-149 and COLD MARCH races off 137
Win lose or draw I do not want a 5yo

Horses with 1 run this season have not done well either
Look at horses with over 5 Chase runs
When having just 1 run this season they were 2-56
Those aged 9 or more were 0-23 doing this
MY BROTHER SYLVEST fails that
His run 2 weeks ago was his first in over 2 years
No guarantee he will not regress from that run
He has also been put up 5lbs for getting beaten
MY BROTHER SYLVEST is not safe enough for me

TANKS FOR THAT is 12 and absent 289 days
I looked at every handicap chase in February
That's any distance in Class 3 or higher
Horses aged 11 or more absent over 5 months
There was a modest 1-54 record with older debutants
The only winner was Monkerhostin over 3 miles
TANKS FOR THAT is far too risky as a 12yo

KEEL HAUL is from a Novice Handicap Chase
3 winners did that in 57 similar races
Two won last time and the other went close
KEEL HAUL was beaten 35 lengths so is rejected
This is where it gets complicated as there is a nasty
frame to this race.

CROCO BAY won well last time
However that was 84 days ago
He has also gone up 15lbs in the handicap
Horses with his profile were 0-2
With Topweight it's not a comfortable profile

OSCAR HILL is shortlistable
Not convinced he is up to Class 2 grade though

ARKAIM does interest me more than most
He tasted this class for the 1st time last time out
Ran a creditable 3rd at Sandown
His profile is without doubt the best in the race

* Horses aged 7
* Coming from a 2m handicap Chase
* Running within 4 weeks
* Beaten last time
* Not beaten more than 20 lengths
* 9-10-11 career chase runs
* Only 2 horses had this profile in similar races
* Eastlake Won at 11/2
* Tara Royal won at 11/2
* ARKAIM has a W W profile
* Just a shame there are 7 runners

Selection

ARKAIM 7/1

Win Bet



H a y d o c k 3.25

5/1 Aqalim, 8/1 Invicta Lake, 8/1 Run Ructions Run
8/1 Vicente, 9/1 Buddy Bolero, 9/1 Bygones Sovereign
10/1 Kelvingrove, 10/1 Racing Europe, 12/1 Dolatulo
14/1 Stonebrook, 16/1 Abracadabra Sivola, 16/1 Cape Tribulation
16/1 Sunnyhillboy, 20/1 Leviathan, 25/1 Across The Bay
25/1 Bell Weir.

This is a 3m handicap hurdle
Haydock has 15 past renewals
There are 33 similar races elsewhere
Some interesting angles in this race
Horses aged 5 haven't done that well
They are 1-22 in this race and 2-31 elsewhere
They haven't won this race since as far back as 2002
5 year olds need to lightly raced with under 10 hurdle runs
They need to be 1st or 2nd last time

Horses from a Novice race have struggled
They are 0-41 in the 15 renewals of this race
They are 4-63 in 33 similar races
None of these were aged 5

AQALIM fails this stat from a Novice Hurdle
No 5yo has won a similar race from a Novice
AQALIM is sired by Raven´s Pass
None of his offspring have won at 2m 6f yet
This is 3m on soft on a stiff track in Graded class
AQALIM has to be opposed
RACING EUROPE also comes from a Novice Hurdle
None have won beaten last time out
None of the 33 winners were aged 11 or more
SUNNYHILLBOY is rejected as a 12yo seasonal debutant
ACROSS THE BAY rejected aged 11 absent 70 days
CAPE TRIBULATION is rejected aged 11 from a Chase
ABRACADABRA SIVOLA is the wrong kind of 5yo
LEVIATHAN is wrong coming up so far in distance
No horse his age or as exposed managed that
BELL WEIR doesn't look good enough
BUDDY BOLERO has raced just once this year in a Chase
He may just want another run
DOLATULO wouldn't be my first choice
Not winning a Chase last time
He is very exposed with 18 hurdle runs anyway
31 of the 33 similar winners had fewer runs
STONEBROOK - I don't want a seasonal debutant
BYGONES SOVEREIGN won in the past 2 weeks
Horses doing that were 1-14
That horse was younger and had 13 hurdle runs
BYGONES SOVEREIGN has 24 and that's a worry
Look at horses with 17 or more hurdle runs
They have a 0-43 record in this race
They are only 2-72 in all 33 similar races
None of these were 1-2-3 last time out
My angles put me off BYGONES SOVEREIGN
INVICTA LAKE has the same problem
He won last time out and has 26 Hurdle runs
I like him more than my angles but they say no
RUN RUCTIONS RUN is a mare
In 33 races female horses are 0-23
RUN RUCTIONS RUN is therefore unlike any winners
There is a slight stamina doubt with her as well

KELVINGROVE is a lightly raced 5yo
Beaten second last time he does have positives
His sire hasn't bred a 3m winner yet though

Selection

VICENTE is 6 and comes from a Chase 88 days ago
1 very similar winner (Georgian King) makes him a positive
I like him best. Feel a Place is the most likely result for him

VICENTE 7/1

Each Way




L i n g f i e l d 3.45

7/2 Melvin The Grate, 6/1 Tigers Tale
7/1 Mindurownbusiness, 7/1 Spiritual Star, 8/1 Don´t Call Me
8/1 Halation, 8/1 Santefisio, 10/1 Energia Flavio, 12/1 Secret Art
14/1 Sovereign Debt, 25/1 Stormy Paradise, 33/1 Freud.

* This is an 8f Handicap for 0-100 rated horses
* There are only 5 of these races in February
* Not a big enough sample size to trust any angles

* I can tell you no horses won aged 8 or more
* There is another statistic that looks interesting
* A small sample size makes it harder to trust
* All 5 winners were absent over 3 weeks
* 4 of these were absent 3-7 weeks
* Horses that ran within 3 weeks were 0-31
* Something to bear in mind

* DON´T CALL ME is 8 and ran recently
* Not a safe profile and just 1 run since October
* SOVEREIGN DEBT is out absent so long with topweight
* SECRET ART has a bad draw and a long absence
* FREUD looks too inexperienced
* SANTEFISIO - I don't want a 9yo in a Class 2 handicap
* MINDUROWNBUSINESS looks unsafe to me
* He has a recent run which hasn't been the norm
* He doesn't look that well treated to me either
* My main worry is just 1 race in the past 128 days
* All 5 winners had more recent runs than him
* STORMY PARADISE is out with 1 run since September
* ENERGIA FLAVIO must have some sort of chance
* Horses with runs within 3 weeks like him are 0-31 though
* SPIRITUAL STAR has the same problem
* He won recently and no last time out winner won
* Career high mark and no wins in the class put me off him

Shortlist

HALATION is shortlistable as an unexposed 4yo

TIGERS TALE last ran 4 weeks ago
Thats a good sign and I feel he is shortlistable

MELVIN THE GRATE looks progressive
He lacks a recent run which is a good sign in this race
Tough handicap mark but he could easily overcome that
Will need some luck in running from the draw

Selection

MELVIN THE GRATE 7/2 Win Bet
TIGERS TALE 11/2 Saver Bet

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