0 Account Bet
0 Selection
1 Profile & Preview bets
0 Negative
15 Races Discussed



A much calmer day today. I have ended up with
15 previews which is too many but not all have
conclusions and offer only a couple of pointers.

Ascot has missed yesterdays rain and the going
looks like it will be very fast for Tuesday. There
is no message planned Monday. If that changes
I will email you early tomorrow morning. It gives
me a days break before we tackle Royal Ascot.


P r o f i l e & P r e v i e w B e t


Cork 5.45

LOVE ROSIE 9/2

Each Way


5/1 Corals
9/2 Skybet Boyles Betfred
9/2 Tote PPower
4/1 elsewhere and acceptable


Plenty of short priced options today
No real reason to stake anything too short
I was tempted by a few but narrowed them down.

My first option was this

Downpatrick 4.25 - Bridgets Pet 3/1

I like him a lot but I decided not to stake him
Mainly as he moved stables recently
Plus I can't be sure he is fit enough.


My 2nd option was this

Downpatrick 5.30 - El Grande 4/1 Each Way

Hunter Chase winner in a handicap chase
My angles give him a tick
I love the Momentum he brings to the race
His handicap mark is not too demanding
I very nearly went for him
A few things put me off at the last minute

I nearly had a win bet and saver
I couldn't split the two saver options though
Inexperience could be a factor in a big field
We would only get 3 places in a 15 runner race
It wasn't good value each way

I settled on the Cork Bet

Cork 5.45

LOVE ROSIE 9/2

Each Way

I have been making her a negative recently
No horses sired by Zebedee
Has won over this far with under 3 career starts
I don't think he got home over 8f on heavy ground
I think you can excuse all 3 of his runs
His Racing Post Ratings are respectable
They have been achieved in races he wasn't suited to





D a i l y N e g a t i v e s

No Negative Today

Results of Negatives
12 correct bets from 14




S a t u r d a y s S u m m a r y

Well it was far better message than a lot of recent
Saturdays. There was no bet advised and many of
you will argue that a message can't be seen as an
excellent one without that and that's probably the
truth of the matter. That said there were 6 horses
I highlighted and they finished L L P W W W and it
included 3 decent priced winners 9/2 5/1 and 12/1.

These Saturdays are madness and they don't suit
this service as we deal with detail. There are too
many things to cross check. I had no idea that we
had an inch of a rain at Bath for example. I made
a good job of the message but you can not begin
to find space to think it all through. I think racing
is at the start of a long death. Young people are
not interested and when my generation dies out
it will be in big trouble. Bookmakers and courses
are milking the last drops out of the game. I look
at Saturday schedules in this conspiratorial way.

The message started badly with VENUE and we
had a frustrating 2nd in STROKE OF MIDNIGHT.
I think PROFTABLE showed a great turn of foot
and ridden better could have won. CORREGGIO
made the day really. Stamina worried me with the
rain. It does not take much to worry me. It would
have been a brilliant message with a winner like
him on any account but I will happily settle for a
good accurate message after a few dodgy ones.




P r o f i l e & P r e v i e w s


D o n c a s t e r 2.00

11/8 Paris Snow, 7/2 Jan Smuts,
7/1 Akula, 14/1 My Destination
16/1 Well Owd Mon, 25/1 Aneedh, 33/1 Coconell.

PARIS SNOW should go close in this race
I'd be reluctant to oppose him
JAN SMUTS looks the danger
Both have recent runs which I like

My selection would be PARIS SNOW
They could easily be 1st and 2nd




C o r k 2.25

6/4 Gift Wrap, 4/1 Delta Sierra, 8/1 Dr Doro
8/1 Idlers Dream, 9/1 Shrill, 12/1 Zebgrey
14/1 Kotonic, 14/1 Love Is All Around, 25/1 Foxen
25/1 Planchart, 33/1 Jenniechild
66/1 The Frozen Well.

This is a fillies maiden over 5f
GIFT WRAP comes here with 2 runs
She has Racing post Ratings of 72 and 78
Her 2 main dangers are unraced
GIFT WRAP should have enough to win
No unraced horse has won here drawn 8 or higher
That is not as good a statistic as it sounds
However both her market dangers fail this
KOTONIC didn't run well enough 4 days ago
GIFT WRAP should have too much

Selection

GIFT WRAP 4/5

Win Bet





D o n c a s t e r 2.30

9/4 Dark Avenger, 3/1 Sampera, 5/1 Hawridge Dancer
7/1 Shaw Ting, 7/1 Super Quick, 10/1 Borak
16/1 Fidelma Moon, 20/1 Midtech Star.

This is a 10f Classifield race
29 similar races and all ran within 69 days
SUPER QUICK is rejeceted as a seasonal debutant
SHAW TING is rejected with 1 run this year
She has an awful sire whose runners rarely train on
MIDTECH STAR didn't do enough last time
HAWRIDGE DANCER is weak 66/1 in a maiden last time
I think one of the other 4 will win
Many winners came from handicaps
None from Class 6 handicaps though
SAMPERA has this problem

FIDELMA MOON - Great chance if she settles
She pulled far too hard last time
Wont win if doing that again but can win if settling

BORAK - 2 runs this year from a handicap is likeable

DARK AVENGER has a decent chance

Selection

Staked to £10

DARK AVENGER -£4 win 11/8

BORAK - £4 win 8/1

FIDELMA MOON £1 Each Way 16/1





D o w n p a t r i c k 2.40

6/4 Moonmeister, 2/1 Little Rocky, 7/1 Rufino
8/1 Tight Times, 16/1 Princess Tamay, 16/1 Sam King
20/1 Thornfield, 25/1 Racing Again, 25/1 Raise A Toast
33/1 Bad News Bear, 33/1 Fair Ethel, 33/1 Riverside Hero
50/1 Sovereign Princess, 50/1 The Galway Cailin
100/1 Why Kilcamin.

This is a 2m maiden hurdle
This looks an each way double race
2 outstanding candidates
MOONMEISTER and LITTLE ROCKY

RUFINO doesn't inspire much confidence
PRINCESS TAMAY is not for me either
Not as a 4yo filly starting 100/1 last time

MOONMEISTER is a 4yo
He has no National Hunt form at all
He brings just flat form to the race
That's not a very attractive profile
I looked at all maiden hurdles in June at any trip
Similar 4 year olds were just 4-134
One of those ran within a week
Two of them were seasonal debutants
Those that ran 7-149 days ago were just 1-60
MOONMEISTER could easily win
His profile though is nothing special at all

LITTLE ROCKY is 7 and has a better profile
He has 10 hurdle races
This includes some decent Racing Post Ratings
He has achieved 125 121 124 125 123 ratings
Any of those could probably win this race

LITTLE ROCKY appeals more
I think he should just about win
The each way double is another layer of protection

Selection

LITTLE ROCKY 13/8



S a l i s b u r y 2.50

2/1 Blond Me, 3/1 Althania, 4/1 Southern Storm
5/1 Lilian Baylis, 14/1 Celestial Fire, 25/1 Allegra Royale
33/1 Secret Bay, 33/1 Tricky Issue.

I see this 8f maiden as an each way double race

BLOND ME and LILIAN BAYLIS are closely matched
BLOND ME has the edge on the numbers
LILIAN BAYLIS cost 4 times more and could improve more

Both have solid trainers that are not easy to read
Gosden has ALTHANIA who could be a threat
Too many trust issues

I like LILIAN BAYLIS a bit but there is no clear edge
I'd either go down the each way double
Or possibly have a win and place bet.




C o r k 2.55

3/1 A Few Dollars More, 3/1 Zunera
4/1 Anonymous Lady, 4/1 Ostatnia
9/1 Showcard, 10/1 Daisy Bell, 14/1 Disprove.

This is a 5f handicap
Small field and too complicated statistically
I just wanted to watch a draw stat
Look at Cork races over 5f with 6 or more runners
There are 32 of these races since 2011
Horses like OSTATNIA drawn 1 were 0-32
I couldn't bet him drawn 1 even in a small field
It's not enough to open the race up

No Selection





D o n c a s t e r 3.05

7/2 Stubbins, 4/1 She Is No Lady, 5/1 Monotype
6/1 Clotilde, 6/1 Kip, 10/1 Dromcus, 10/1 Joseph Jefferson
14/1 Sky Rose, 16/1 Simply Rouge, 25/1 Magic Escapade
25/1 Ominotago, 25/1 Sands Of Fortune
33/1 Gorgeous Georgie, 33/1 Virginia Celeste,
66/1 Maple Stirrup, 100/1 Become Aware
100/1 Lightning Steps.

This is a maiden race over 12 furlongs. The usual mix of
3 year olds mixing it with older horses and the no hopers.

SHE IS NO LADY comes from a 10f maiden
KIP comes from a 10f maiden
Both these horses are fillies

If I look at fillies with this profile
When having just 1 run this season
Those with 2-3 career starts were just 1-31
I would just about see both as acceptable
My angles are clear though
Whilst they are acceptable
Their profiles would be far better with 2+ runs this year

CLOTILDE doesn't look safe drawn 1
SKY ROSE isn't first choice with a long absence

There is another side issue in this race

KIP is sired by Rip Van Winkle
JOSEPH JEFFERSON is sired by Rip Van Winkle
STUBBINS is sired by Rip Van Winkle

This sire has bred a winner over 11f on the All Weather
None though have won over 12f yet
Much will depend on whether these 3 stay or not

DROMCUS has a chance

In terms of profiles 2 horses stand out

STUBBINS
MONOTYPE

MONOTYPE has a solid and safe orthodox profile
Plenty of winners like him have won similar races

STUBBINS has the best profile
Fillies with 4 runs
Running 15-25 days ago
Coming from 9f or longer
Having 2-3 runs that season
Horses with this profile were W W 5 W W W 2 W
Easily the best profile but two small issues
MONOTYPE has a slightly better draw
STUBBINS has that stamina question mark
By Rip Van Winkle I can't be sure she will stay
Because of that I would want a saver in the race

Selection

Staked to £10

£7 WIN STUBBINS 7/2

£3 Win MONOTYPE 7/2





S a l i s b u r y 3.25

11/8 Lemoncetta, 2/1 Bella Lulu, 5/2 Iconic
14/1 Kind Of Hush, 66/1 Auntie May, 66/1 Reigning.

This is a fillies maiden over a mile
Not an attractive race for an each way bet
I don't see any strong statistical issues
KIND OF HUSH has too much improvement to find
ICONIC is sired by Kodiac
Wont be easy getting a mile by this sire with just 1 run
I looked at Horses sired by kodiac over 8f + on Grass
When having 0-1-2 career runs they are just 1-41
That may or may not be significant
It is a race you have to guess in
BELLA LULU is a seasonal debutant
LEMONCETTA has a run
It is partly a trust issue with these trainers
Gosden invariably wins those battles
That pushes me towards LEMONCETTA
Not enough evidence to commit to her though



C o r k 3.30

5/2 Monsieur Joe, 4/1 Mirza, 11/2 Abstraction
11/2 Russian Soul, 13/2 Ardhoomey, 13/2 Dikta Del Mar
12/1 Line Of Reason.

This is a Listed race over 5f
Just 7 runners complicate this matter
MONSIEUR JOE causes me problems
I like his last run 8 days ago
That is the most recent race of any of these
His fitness could get him hope
There are a couple of problems with him
MONSIEUR JOE is 0-13 in this class or higher
That has contributed to a poor sire record

Look at horses sired by Chosir
When running over 5f in Class A or higher
There is a very modest 1-69 record with these horses
Those aged 3 or more were 0-49 in this record
MONSIEUR JOE fails that
He has contributed 13 losers to that 0-49 record
He may overcome that with the recent race
It is too much of a worry to make him the selection

LINE OF REASON is opposed for similar reasons
Look at his sires runners over 5f in Class A or higher
All 50 that ran were beaten
LINE OF REASON is therefore not my choice
ABSTRACTION also fails that breeding statistic
ARDHOOMEY looks risky
He has never raced over 5f before
I prefer two horses

Selection

RUSSIAN SOUL 11/2 Win Bet

MIRZA 7/2 Saver Bet





S a l i s b u r y 4.00

5/4 Absolutely So, 4/1 Minalisa, 5/1 Musical Comedy
5/1 Justineo 50/1 Van Ellis.

* The Cathedral Stakes is a Listed race over 6f
* There are 14 past renewals
* Ideally you want the following based on past renewals

* A horse rated 103 or more
* Two or more runs that season
* Last years winner had 1 run that year
* She was the first and there were reasons for that
* ABSOLUTELY SO only has just 1 run this year
* Connections have said he is at his best on soft
* MINALISA has just 1 run this year
* I'm drawn more to the horses with 2 + runs
* MUSICAL COMEDY and JUSTINEO

Selection

MUSICAL COMEDY 4/1 Win Bet

JUSTINEO 4/1 Saver




C o r k 4.05

11/8 Words, 9/4 Carla Bianca
5/2 Roheryn, 16/1 Maid Of The Glens.

The Munster Oaks is over 12f
It is a Group race for 3yo fillies

WORDS has only raced once before
She has not raced in 352 days
She is reported to have had hold ups
She is said to need the run
I can't select her on the above

Statistically though I can't show her as a negative
There is only 1 past renewal of this race
A similar race has been won by a similar horse
That was when Spanish Sun won the Ribblesdale
I do feel I should oppose her
MAID OF THE GLENS may not fully stay this far
Tight choice of selection
CARLA BIANCA just gets the vote




D o w n p a t r i c k 4.25

3/1 Haddington Road, 9/2 Bridgets Pet
5/1 Officer Cadet, 7/1 Lord Of Isenay, 7/1 Rendezvous Peak
7/1 Shamar, 9/1 Cnoc Na Sioga, 12/1 Cousin Bill
25/1 Replacement Plan, 33/1 Admiral Barton.

This is a 2m 5f Beginners Chase
There are 50 of these races in June
There are 143 Novice and Beginners Chases

Look at Racing Post Chase ratings here

138 Bridgets Pet
135 Bridgets Pet
122 Bridgets Pet
116 Cnoc Na Sioga
110 Cnoc Na Sioga

BRIDGETS PET is miles clear
The problem he has is his record
6 Chase runs and finished only 3
He has Fallen twice and Unseated once

I see him as the Class horse
But he has to be able to jump round

I dont see many good profiles against him

Horses aged 9 + are 1-92 in these races
LORD OF ISENAY fails that and fell on his chase debut

I looked at horses aged 6 having their Chase debuts
When running within the past month
There were 3 winners that managed that
All 3 came from handicaps in Class 3 or higher
All 3 of them placed in those handicaps
None came from Novice or Maiden Hurdles

HADDINGTON ROAD fails this
OFFICER CADET fails this


I looked at all similar race over 2m 4f or more
6yo chase debutants
Those with under 7 career starts on any code
There was a poor 1-70 record with these horses
The only winner a 25/1 shock in 1999 (The Tin Soldier)
HADDINGTON ROAD fails this 1-70 angle

COUSIN BILL has never raced over fences
RENDEZVOUS PEAK has never raced over fences

I keep coming back to BRIDGETS PET
His Chase form is more than good enough to win
I feel if he jumps round he will win

Selection

BRIDGETS PET 5/2 +

Win Bet




S a l i s b u r y 4.35

6/4 Gutaifan, 5/2 Husbandry, 9/2 Operative
7/1 Thaqaffa, 12/1 Bingo George, 14/1 Ochos Rios
16/1 Peak Hill, 66/1 Opera Baron, 66/1 Showmethewayavrilo
100/1 Arctic Flower.

This is a 2yo maiden over 6f

I find it very hard to ignore GUTAIFAN

He ran very well in second just 9 days ago
I made him a negative that day for 2 reasons
One being he failed a 0-103 draw statistic
He got beaten but recorded a R.Post Rating of 84
To do that with 2 strong statistics against him feels good
I'd be very reluctant to oppose him

HUSBANDRY has a lot to find on the numbers
Drawn 1 could also make it harder for him
THAQAFFA has a lot to find on the numbers too
I feel I can beat OPERATIVE as well
GUTAIFAN looks a good thing

Selection

GUTAIFAN 4/5

Win Bet




D o w n p a t r i c k 5.30

5/2 El Grande, 6/1 Le Grand Chene, 8/1 Bottle Rattler
8/1 Royal Chief, 10/1 Banana Flambe, 10/1 Down Time
10/1 Tiger Sam, 12/1 Abarta, 12/1 St Maxime
14/1 Bouggietopieces, Magical Mother, 16/1 High Talk
20/1 Becauseicouldntsee, 25/1 Deputy Consort
33/1 Captain Luke.

This is a 2m 7f handicap chase

I can't be to intimate with most of these

5 year olds don't score well
BOUGGIETOPIECES didn't appeal as a 5yo
Not when only costing £1800 recently
DOWN TIME is not for me aged 5 either


I do like EL GRANDE though

I like Hunter Chases like him
Those that had recent wins
That switch into handicaps off low marks

I looked at similar Hunter Chasers
Running in Handicap Chases over 2m 4f +
Running within 2 weeks
Placed or did not complete last time
Starting under 2/1
I found a 3-7 record with these types

LE GRAND CHENE looks worthy of respect

ROYAL CHIEF is also interesting
He is another lightly raced chaser
The ground has come right for him


Selection

EL GRANDE 9/2 Win Bet

LE GRAND CHENE 9/2 Saver Bet




C o r k 5.45

15/8 Spiritual Man, 7/2 Manitobian, 5/1 Gallope
5/1 Love Rosie, 7/1 Multiculture, 16/1 Hushed Tones
20/1 Royal Ascot Trip, 33/1 Brutally Honest
66/1 Ondamoura, 100/1 Costello´s For Fun.

This is an 8f maiden

SPIRITUAL MAN ran once last year
No statistical reason why he can't win

MANITOBIAN was beaten 14 + lengths 9 days ago
That is not a very safe profile

GALLOPE hasn't set a very high standard

MULTICULTURE has a chance

LOVE ROSIE interests me
I made her a negative last time
I didn't feel she would get home over 8f on heavy
She failed a 0-38 sire stat last time
She went off quite hard and faded late
This is much faster ground today
She has a far better profile today
She looks the each way bet here

Selection

LOVE ROSIE 9/2

Each Way


****************************************************
****************************************************