0 Account Bet
0 Selection
1 Profile & Preview bet
0 Negatives
8 Races Discussed

This is the final Saturday message before
Christmas and despite some mild weather
it is heavy ground at most tracks. I wanted
to hand pick a few races avoiding anything
that looks too dangerous or out of bounds.

It feels a sensible enough message given
conditions. Tried to find some good priced
horses with solid chances. It's not a classic
but it does throw up a few ideas for bets.


Today's Bet


Ascot 2.40

MINELLACELEBRATION 7/1

Each Way




Staking Guidance

I would go £6 Win and £4 Place
Just because we only have 3 places now


It has been a week disrupted by hospital visits
and the brief today is to try and come up with a
good priced winner. This weekend isn't one of
the most significant ones. Look at the next one.

Saturday Boxing Day the King George
The Welsh National next Sunday

Once Racing finishes in 3 days time I will have
all week to get this Welsh National sorted out.
It's the one race I'm obsessed about perfecting.


T o d a y ' s R a c i n g


I have done the Silver Cup (Ascot 3.00)
My Hennessy bet The Young Master reappears
He makes the staking plan.
I am highlighting just 2 races today
They offer me reasonable priced Bets


Fairyhouse 1.00

£7.50 Win Cogryhill 6/1

£2.50 Win Damut 3/1


Ascot 2.40

Minellacelebration 8/1

Each Way



I like the 1pm
There is an odds on Willie Mullins horse
We have to get that beaten to profit
Two possible reasons why that could happen
But a tiny field and so much is up in the air

In the end I went with simplicity
And decided to go with Minellacelebration




No Negative Today

Results of Negatives
20 correct bets from 25





P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s



L i n g f i e l d 12.05

11/8 Alshaqee, 4/1 Burmese Whisper
4/1 Hearmenow, 4/1 Zeeoneandonly, 12/1 Priory
20/1 Mullover, 66/1 Don´t Tell Jo Jo.

This is a 6f Claimer for 2 year olds
There are 27 similar races at this time of year
There are 7 runners and 2 look too inexperienced
MULLOVER and DON´T TELL JO JO are easy to ignore
PRIORY has not shown enough yet
I think one of the remaining 4 should win

ALSHAQEE does deserve to be favourite
He has the best numbers and highest rating
The problem with him statistically is this
He has less experience with 5 runs than most
He comes from a 5f race
If I look at horses from 5f races
Those with under 8 career starts were 0-16
ALSHAQEE only has 5 runs
He has to give weight away to every horse too
Statistically I should consider an alternative

Stop Press

ALSHAQEE is now a Non runner

ZEEONEANDONLY ran yesterday
Could have a fitness advantage because of that
I would rather bet him than the others

Selection

ZEEONEANDONLY 7/4

Win Bet




A s c o t 12.40

7/1 Carlo Rocks, 7/1 Kap Jazz
7/1 Say My Name, 7/1 Varom, 9/1 Minellacelebration
12/1 Cooper´s Friend, 12/1 Wait A Second
16/1 Knight Ofthe Realm, 16/1 The Wexfordian
20/1 Amiral Collonges, 20/1 Gambol, 20/1 Pyrshan
25/1 Alanjou, 33/1 Doitforthevillage, 40/1 Get Involved.

This is a Novice Handicap Hurdle over 2m 7f +
There are 19 of these races in December
All 19 winners raced within the last 50 days
I am opposing the 3 horses with long absences
WAIT A SECOND is rejected absent 125 days
THE WEXFORDIAN is rejected absent 292 days
ALANJOU is rejected absent 281 days

Ascot has 6 renewals of this race
All 6 winners were aged 5
Horses aged 4 were 0-6
Horses aged 6 or more were 0-39
We want a lightly raced 5 year old

The 6 winners had 6 7 4 7 3 6 career starts
The 6 winners had 5 7 3 6 2 4 hurdle starts
The 6 winners had 2 3 3 3 3 4 runs that season
None of the 6 winners had previous Flat Form

I am uneasy with 4 year olds
SAY MY NAME is 4 and has just 1 run this season
We know all 6 winners had 2 3 3 3 3 4 runs that year
AMIRAL COLLONGES only has 1 run this year
May not be enough with 19 career starts
We know all 6 winners had under 8 career starts
PYRSHAN doesn't convince me
My breeding stats say he is no certainty to stay
GAMBOL is the wrong type with 19 runs and flat form
GET INVOLVED hasn't shown enough yet
DOITFORTHEVILLAGE hasn't shown enough yet
KNIGHT OFTHE REALM is a 6 year old
We know none his age have won this race
None were as experience as he is either
Coming here after a heavy defeat he is unsafe

VAROM is a lightly raced 6 year old
Not the best age. My issue is with stamina
VAROM is by a French Sprinter.
There is some stamina on the dam side
I would still see him as a potential non stayer
I suggested he might not stay last time over 2m 5f
This is over 2 furlongs further today
COOPER´S FRIEND is 6 which isn't my target age
Not rule out only on that as he has other positives
There are more suitable options though

Shortlist

MINELLACELEBRATION has won his last 2 races
Attempting a hat trick wont be easy
Good profile though and is a battler

KAP JAZZ is a last time out 5yo winner
Lightly raced he fits what we need well
My problem with KAP JAZZ is his last run
I think he beat 2 non stayers last time
I think he was flattered by that

CARLO ROCKS has similar credentials
He has to be seen as a positive as well
He has just won easily over 3m on soft
Despite that my Breeding Stats say be careful
They say not to assume he automatically stays

MINELLACELEBRATION battled well last time
At the prices I think he is a better bet

Selection

MINELLACELEBRATION 7/1

Each Way




F a i r y h o u s e 1.00

8/13 Gangster, 4/1 Damut, 11/2 Cogryhill
8/1 Last Encounter, 20/1 Cheiliuradh.

This is a Grade 3 Novice Hurdle over 3 miles
Small field so no surprise what wins
The race has been switched from Cork

GANGSTER might have a couple of flaws
Absent 91 days he is off the track longer than all others

Can we be sure he will stay being by Green Tune
Horses sired by Green Tune
Running over 2m 6f or more
Have a weak 1-36 record
The only winner was a Chaser on firm ground
His hurdlers over 2m 6f or more are 0-19
This is 3 miles and Heavy ground

There are more guaranteed stayers
That have more recent runs than him
The downside is he is probably the superior horse
But he wont be if stamina or fitness fail
So I am going to try and get him beaten

Selection

£7.50 Win COGRYHILL 6/1

£2.50 Win DAMUT 3/1





A s c o t 1.15

7/4 Blue Fashion, 9/4 Voix D´eau, 7/2 Mala Beac
8/1 Royal Regatta, 11/1 Kings Lad, 12/1 Horizontal Speed.

This is a 2m 5f Graduation Chase
There are 8 of these races in December

The last 5 winners of this were 5 year olds
There is something more significant about this
There were only 9 horses aged 5 that tried
Horses aged 5 have a 5-9 record in similar races

All 8 winners had previous Chasing experience
They had 2 14 11 2 5 3 3 4 Chase runs
They also all had recent runs as well

BLUE FASHION is not a 5 year old
He does not have any Chasing experience
He does not have a recent run
He does not have the profile of any past winner

VOIX D´EAU seems the better choice
He is 5 and has 4 Chase starts
His Chase Racing Post Ratings are 128 139 142 146
Those are improving numbers and a career best last time
MALA BEACH will be a danger
But he lasted 9 fences this year in his sole race
VOIX D´EAU may just have a fitness edge

Selection

VOIX D´EAU 11/4

Win Bet






N e w c a s t l e 1.55

6/4 Near To Tears, 2/1 May Hay
11/4 Beyondtemptation, 7/1 Lochnell.

Mares handicap Hurdle
Not many of these races in December
If I take the lower grade mares races
None of the winners had just 1 run that season

This could be the interesting point
It is heavy ground scraping through an inspection
God only knows how gruelling this might be

MAY HAY has raced just once since March
Only a lightly raced 5yo and has to carry topweight
She was well beaten in that race too
LOCHNELL was hammered last time
She too has raced just once this season

I'd rather stay with the horses that had more
This is why I am short-listing two.

NEAR TO TEARS
BEYONDTEMPTATION

Statistically the lighter raced NEAR TO TEARS is
far more suitable but BEYONDTEMPTATION will
be the fittest horse by miles here. Interesting this
is a 7 year old when both past winners of this race
were the same age and had more than 1 prep run.

The issue for me is can we squeeze both horses
into the staking plan to give us a stronger spread.

Selection

£6 Win BEYONDTEMPTATION 3/1
£4 Win NEAR TO TEARS 15/8

This is one option. It would mean we are getting
11/8 about BEYONDTEMPTATION with cash back
if Near To Tears wins. There is another alternative.

Exacta Bet

BEYONDTEMPTATION - NEAR TO TEARS

My reasons are either right or wrong. If these are
right and fitness really does matter than there is a
good chance this pair could finishing 1st and 2nd.
Therefore the Exacta could be the alternate bet if
you felt the staked bet above was short on value.





L i n g f i e l d 2.20

7/2 Grendisar, 4/1 Battalion, 5/1 Lamar
6/1 Man Of Harlech, 7/1 Metropol, 8/1 Energia Davos
14/1 Don´t Be, 14/1 Hawke, 25/1 Real Smart
25/1 Starlit Cantata, 33/1 Sequester, 50/1 Phyllis Maud.

This is a Listed Class race over a 10f
There are 7 past renewals and no similar races
Last year my angles found the 1st and 2nd
They found the previous years winner as well
Because of that I stay with the same statistics

All 7 winners had the following in common
All 7 winners were aged 4-5-6
Horses aged 3 are 0-12 in this race
All 7 winners ran within a month
All 7 winners had at least 15 runs
All 7 winners had at least 6 runs this season
All 7 winners had form in Listed or Group races before
All 7 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
All 8 winners came from Class 2 or higher
Their last run was over at least 8f
This produces a shortlist of 3

METROPOL
GRENDISAR
BATTALION

These 3 were 2nd 3rd 5th in the Churchill Stakes
Obviously hard to split them
I think GRENDISAR could follow up his win last year

Selection

£8 Win GRENDISAR 9/4

£2 Saver BATTALION 4/1




A s c o t 2.25

15/8 Saphir Du Rheu, 9/4 Thistlecrack
4/1 Reve De Sivola, 8/1 Dynaste, 12/1 Deputy Dan
20/1 Taglietelle, 25/1 Aqalim, 25/1 Karezak.

The Long Walk Hurdle is a Grade 1 over 3 miles
Not a race I tend to cover very often
I was interested in a stat about SAPHIR DU RHEU
SAPHIR DU RHEU comes from a Chase
That was when 5th in the Hennessy
On a separate note that could also be an issue
Hard race 3 weeks ago could hurt him today
But my main issue is coming from any Chase

October November December
Listed and Graded Hurdles
Any Distance
There are 321 of these Class A + races
Look at horses coming from a Chase
Running in the last 5 months
There is a 0-59 record with horses doing this
SAPHIR DU RHEU fails this statistic

Now there was a winner from a Chase in January
That was SAPHIR DU RHEU winning the Cleeve hurdle
He won that race coming from a Chase in January
The record before new year is 0-59 though
That and a hard race in the Hennessy put me off him
SAPHIR DU RHEU is therefore not my choice

REVE DE SIVOLA is a 10yo
He has won this race for the last 3 years aged 7-8-9
Each time he won he had 2 + runs that season
This year he is 10 and has just 1 run
That does worry me and puts me off him
But years ago Deano's Beano won this with this profile
That means REVE DE SIVOLA is not a negative
But I am drawn more to THISTLECRACK
He is a better age and has an extra run this season

Selection

THISTLECRACK 2/1

Win Bet




A s c o t 3.00

9/2 Pendra, 6/1 Fingal Bay, 6/1 The Young Master
7/1 Salubrious, 10/1 Houblon Des Obeaux, 10/1 Virak
11/1 Fox Appeal, 11/1 Wakanda, 12/1 Ma Filleule
14/1 Gullinbursti, 16/1 Unioniste, 20/1 Katenko
25/1 The Giant Bolster.

The Silver Cup is a Listed Chase over 3m
There are 11 renewals of this race
There are 26 similar races elsewhere

If you look at horses aged 9 or more
That had 11 or more previous Chase runs
None of these managed to win with an absence
KATENKO looks too exposed to win first time out
He has a poor record after a break
GULLINBURSTI is absent too long
Whilst not too exposed 602 is a serious absence
He is also 0-11 in Class 2 and higher
THE GIANT BOLSTER is 10 and older than ideal
With 1 poor run this year he is rejected
FINGAL BAY is a 9yo a little older than ideal
He was a very creditable 4th in the Hennessy
The Hennessy may not be the best of trial races
The 2013 winner did it but that was in a small field
Going back many years it has been a bad overall trial race
FINGAL BAY is no certainty to appreciate this track either
It would worry me a very hard race 3 weeks ago
On his 3rd start of the year he may find this too much

UNIONISTE has raced once this year
Beaten 43 lengths just 2 weeks ago is not enough
He has never won off his current rating before
He should need more runs before he can win

WAKANDA is a 6 year old
Not the best of ages and he is not safe
6 year olds that won last time are 0-8 in similar races
Horses that win recent races struggle in these races
If you look at horses that won their last races
Those that were absent over 5 weeks were 4-26
Those that were absent Under 5 weeks are 0-27
WAKANDA absent 21 days fails that 0-27 record
You need several weeks break to follow up a win
WAKANDA does not have that and that weakens him
He needs a career best to land a hat trick
History and a 0-27 record raise doubts

MA FILLEULE is a 7yo Mare
No Mares have won any similar race in December
I think she probably wants a flatter track

VIRAK has a tough task off 11st 12lbs
Especially for a 6 year old
Looks harshly handicapped to me
He has been raised 5lbs for getting beaten
I don't think he is good enough to carry topweight
Not on this track which has seemed not to suit him

HOUBLON DES OBEAUX won this in 2013
He was also 2nd in the 2014 renewal last year
He achieved that after a good recent run
This year he has twice been well beaten
He was beaten 47 lengths in the Hennessy last time
Not a good trial race and that is a long way
That worries me and he has had 23 Chase starts now
There are 26 similar races in December
25 of the 26 winners had 17 or fewer Chase starts
Those with 18 or more have a poor 1-44 record
That winner was older and he is not for me

FOX APPEAL doesn't have too bad a profile
Career high mark today though
I also try and avoid his trainer if I can
Also not overkeen he is a small horse
With 11st 6lbs here I would be uneasy about him
But I can't offer a strong negative statistically

Shortlist

THE YOUNG MASTER fell at the 1st fence last time
That meant he has not had a proper race in 47 days
If you look at 6 year olds in the 26 similar races
They have a very modest 3-53 record
I was surprised how modest that was
The 6 year old winners all had 2 + runs that season
THE YOUNG MASTER has only had one proper run
They all ran in the previous month as well and he hasn't
He did win this race last year as a 5 year old with less weight
I fancied him for the Hennessy off 150
So I have to fancy him here off the same mark

If you look at horses that won their last races
Those that were absent Under 5 weeks are 0-27
Those that were absent over 5 weeks were 4-26
SALUBRIOUS fits that nicely absent 40 days
PENDRA fits that nicely absent 49 days
In fact both come out better than it looks

Last time winners
Absent between 35 and 50 days
Aged under 9
Under 12 career starts
There were 7 horses with this profile
They finished W 9 W 2 W PU W
The 2011 2012 2014 winners of this race shared it
PENDRA shares this excellent 4-7 record
SALUBRIOUS shares this excellent 4-7 record

SALUBRIOUS of course only has 2 Chase starts
There are 26 similar races in December
The least experienced winner had 3 Chase starts
That was The Young Master in this race last year
SALUBRIOUS only has 2 Chase starts which worries me
If you look at Ascot Handicap Chases over 2m 4f +
Run in Listed or Graded Class at any time of year
None have won with just 2 Chase runs
I still see SALUBRIOUS as a positive
But that lack of experience worries me
His trainer reported early jumping problems
Hinted he was not a natural Chaser in the beginning
T his is not a track that gives much away

PENDRA with 8 Chase starts may have the edge
Especially as he has winning Ascot form

Selection

£6 Win PENDRA 6/1

£4 Win THE YOUNG MASTER 8/1

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