0 Account Bet
0 Selection
0 Profile & Preview bets
0 Negative
5 Races Discussed





Today's Message


Royal Ascot is behind us now and refreshed after
a short mini two day break in service. I am bound
to be a bit rusty today. An uphill battle today given
I got so many jobs out of the way yesterday this is
a message that wasn't started until last night.

I basically fancy 2 horses more than the rest


Newcastle 2.45

MR GLOBETROTTER 4/1

Each Way


Leopardstown 6.50

FISHERMAN´S BLUES 4/5

Win Bet



My best bet is FISHERMAN´S BLUES

Too short for me to stake really

No bet today

I just want to get organised and comeback with
today's message and start the week properly tomorrow.




D a i l y N e g a t i v e s

No Negative Today

Results of Negatives
13 correct bets from 15




M o n d a y s S u m m a r y

The last message on Monday contained a
profile and preview bet on Grosmont who
lost. I was never comfortable with this bet
because of the stable but felt it was worth
a small bet. He drifted badly in the market
before missing the break then recieved a
quiet ride and never looked like winning.
I didn't feel I got a run for my money and I
would put this bet down as unsatisfactory.


P r o f i l e & P r e v i e w s



N e w c a s t l e 2.45

9/4 Prince Hellvelyn, 3/1 Garcia, 4/1 Ediye
5/1 Mr Globetrotter, 14/1 Run Rio Run,
16/1 Follow The Rules, 20/1 Porcupine Creek
33/1 Ivy Matilda, 33/1 Murdanova.

This is a 2yo maiden over 6f
PRINCE HELLVELYN sets the standard here
1 run and a Racing Post Rating of 70
Thats fair enough but I am going to look elsewhere
I mentioned his sire Hellvelyn recently
Seems to have poor stock so far
All winners he bred have won in low grade races
Only 1 of his stock have bettered a R.P.P.of 79
The Average official rating of all his runners is just 31
I would rather look elsewhere than rely on him

EDIYE - Not for me as an unraced filly
Her trainers record with 2yo debutants is modest (2-47)
None have won over 6f or more before anyway

GARCIA has powerful connections
Said to be a big horse if he is fit and ready he's a danger

RUN RIO RUN needs watching in the market
IVY MATILDA is a negative first time out from his sire

MR GLOBETROTTER could be the one
Reasonably competent debut here at Newcastle
He was drawn badly in Stall 1 on that debut
He may be capable of better than that
I'd rather be him each way than the favourite

Selection

MR GLOBETROTTER 4/1

Each Way



N e w c a s t l e 3.55

7/2 Russian Royale, 5/1 King Of The Picts
7/1 Knightly Escapade 10/1 Virnon
14/1 Braes Of Lochalsh 16/1 Fair Trade.

This is a 2m handicap for 0-80 rated horses
I am opposing RUSSIAN ROYALE
She has never raced beyond 14f before
Her sire Royal Applause has bred hundreds of winners
Those racing over 2m or more are just 1-72 though
The only winner was at Dundalk in 2009
The favourite fell that day and brought down the 4th favourite
The winner (Royal Entourage) had won a few days earlier
This is a sire who 2 mile runners underperform
To be fair she won last time over hurdles
I just don't want to risk her over this far
VIRNON doesn't set much of standard
FAIR TRADE was hammered just 5 days ago
BRAES OF LOCHALSH looks beatable

KNIGHTLY ESCAPADE has a good solid safe profile
He won the race last year and is respected

KING OF THE PICTS has an acceptable profile

Selection

Staked to £10

£3 Win KING OF THE PICTS 9/4

£7 Win KNIGHTLY ESCAPADE 7/2




N e w c a s t l e 5.40

4/1 King Of Paradise, 9/2 Hussar Ballad, 11/2 Quest Of Colour
7/1 Exclusive Waters, 8/1 We´ll Shake Hands,12/1 Nelson´s Bay,
12/1 Scoppio Del Carro 16/1 Green Zone, 16/1 Hail Bold Chief
20/1 Bogardus.

This is a 10f handicap. There is a complete saturation
of these races in June and July. So many of them it is
almost imposible to find strong negatives. I am trying
to isolate the safest profiles but no strong negatives.

* NELSON´S BAY - rejected from a 7f race
* KING OF PARADISE - Rejected down from 13f to 10f
* BOGARDUS haas form/fitness doubts
* HAIL BOLD CHIEF - I'd question his fitness
* GREEN ZONE - too risky at 10f after poor last run
* QUEST OF COLOUR - May want another run this year as a filly
* SCOPPIO DEL CARRO - Unsafe with an absence from hurdles
* EXCLUSIVE WATERS - Not enough positives
* HUSSAR BALLAD - just 1 run in the past 112 days worries me
* WE´LL SHAKE HANDS - No problems assuming he stays

Selection

WE´LL SHAKE HANDS 7/1

Each Way




L e o p a r d s t o w n 6.20

7/2 Zunera, 4/1 Ishebayorgrey, 5/1 Cenotaph
11/2 Showcard, 6/1 Glimmer Of Peace, 13/2 Cailin Mor
10/1 Sassy But Classy, 14/1 Future Icon, 16/1 Daisy Bell.

This is a 6f handicap
CENOTAPH has been backed into favouritism
Sexy horse a War Front colt from Aidan O'Brien
The problem is he comes from 10f to 6f
That drop of half a mile won't be easy
I looked at every 3yo handicap in June and July
All 40 horses that tried that were beaten
I can find 6 horses doing this when we get to August
Just none in June or July so I see him as unsafe
CAILIN MOR came out badly
DAISY BELL and FUTURE ICON haven't done enough
ZUNERA has a reasonable profile
From a 5f race his profile is only acceptable
He is an option each way around 7/2
The best profiles come from the 7f droppers

ISHEBAYORGREY comes out well from 7f with a recent run
GLIMMER OF PEACE also comes out well

Selection

ISHEBAYORGREY 9/2 Each Way
GLIMMER OF PEACE 7/1 Saver




L e o p a r d s t o w n 6.50

11/10 Fisherman´s Blues, 7/2 Fair City, 5/1 Hollywood Road
6/1 Vocal Defense, 8/1 Fit For Function, 20/1 Play The Game.

This is a 7f maiden for 2 year olds

FISHERMAN´S BLUES is easy to fancy
Sired by Zebedee he races over 7f
I always oppose this sires runners
When racing over 7f or more with under 3 runs
They have a 0-49 record doing that
FISHERMAN´S BLUES now has 3 runs
That puts him in a much safer place statistically
He has improving Racing Post Ratings of 73 75 81

This is a horse that has been very hard to get fit
His trainer has said he has a lot of condition
He said on his debut he would need the run
His 2nd run he said he was "still a bit heavy for my liking"
Last time out he failed my 0-49 Zebedee statistic
This could be the day it all clicks

I also like him as his main rival has flaws
FAIR CITY is an unraced colt by Lawman
If you look at 2 year olds by Lawman
They are 3-83 racing over 7f or more on their debuts
Male 2yo's by this sire are 0-47 doing this
That makes FAIR CITY a very risky bet
HOLLYWOOD ROAD could go well
He has a lot to find on the numbers
I'll be surprised if VOCAL DEFENSE wins first time
No encouragement from his sire with debutants
FISHERMAN´S BLUES is a confident selection

Selection

FISHERMAN´S BLUES 4/5

Win Bet

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