0 Account Bet
0 Selection
1 Profile & Preview bet
0 Negative
3 Races Discussed

This isn't a particularly inspiring days racing.
I'm ignoring Ayr as normal. Mentally I'm just
not motivated at the track. The National Hunt
racing is too immature in places and still too
early in the season. I have found three races
I like but the overall racing quality is weaker
than ideal and that means average messages.

We won a Point of Profit yesterday.
I am going to use that up with this bet today.
Far less confident that I was last night with Sky Cape
But equally a bigger price so worth a small bet





Today's Bet

Chelmsford 6.40

CAPTAIN GERALD 8/1 Win Bet

NOT SO GENTLE 2/1 Saver Bet



Staked to £10

£6 Win CAPTAIN GERALD 8/1

£4 Win NOT SO GENTLE 2/1


This saver is important
He will probably win the race



If CAPTAIN GERALD wins
We will be on a 9/2 winner with the split stake
With full cash back if the saver wins

The main obstacle to the bet is the favourite
I think we can beat her but she's a threat

Captain Gerald 9/1 - Boyles
Captain Gerald 8/1 - Ladbrokes Hills Corals PPower
Captain Gerald 8/1 - Bet365 Skybet Tote Betfred SPbet

Not so Gentle 2/1 Generally
Not so Gentle 15/8 Stan J Ladbrokes PPower




T o d a y ' s M e s s a g e

Three races today
These are the conclusions

Tramore 3.55

£4 Each Way Just Get Cracking 4/1
£2 Win Beautiful Ben 10/1


Chelmsford 6.10
Novantae 5/2
Each Way


Chelmsford 6.40

Captain Gerald 8/1 Win Bet
Not So Gentle 2/1 Saver Bet


The Tramore race is a profile based guess
Fascinating negative in the race but that is 3/1
I am betting around that negative with best profiles

The Chelmsford 6.10 bet makes sense
More a compromise selection staked safely
Just don't want to advise a 5/2 each way bet


My eggs are the the 6.40pm basket.



D a i l y N e g a t i v e s

No Negative Today

Results of Negatives

20 correct bets from 24



W e d n e s d a y s S u m m a r y

A very average message on a dull and mediocre
day's racing but at least the main bet won and it
might have been a short price but it does plenty
for strike rate and confidence as well as nudging
the profit figures up a bit. SKY CAPE won easier
than a short head suggests. It was quite smooth
in the end and I am pleased I went for the horse.



P r o f i l e & P r e v i e w s



T r a m o r e 3.55

11/4 Company Coming, 7/2 Westerner Point
4/1 Just Get Cracking, 6/1 Invincible Don, 6/1 Sister Annie
8/1 Beautiful Ben, 10/1 Akinspirit, 25/1 Who´s Cross.

This is a 2m Novice Chase
There are 129 similar races in October

I am opposing WESTERNER POINT
He raced over 2m 5f last time out
What worries me about that was it was 8 days ago
It will take a bit of readjusting to do that
At least that is what these angles suggest


September October November
Novice Chases over 2 miles
Horses coming from 2m 5f or further
Running within 2 weeks
Horses with this profile were 0-77

WESTERNER POINT fails this 0-77 record
It suggests a big recent drop in trip is a problem
It suggests it is too big of a culture shock
WESTERNER POINT should be opposed

The problem here is ruling enough out
SISTER ANNIE wouldn't be my first choice
Not as a mare winning a 20/1 chase last time
AKINSPIRIT - No 11yo has a won a similar race in October
He may just be a bit too old to consider
INVINCIBLE DON has a chance
Hard to know if he is in good enough form

Shortlist

COMPANY COMING has a solid chance
May want further than this and has limitations
But running well and probably the safest e/w choice

Best Profile

Horses aged 5
No previous Chase runs
Running within 6 weeks
Horses with this profile were 5-23
That is encouraging. Throw out those at 16/1 and more
That then becomes a 5-14 record

BEAUTIFUL BEN has this profile
JUST GET CRACKING has this profile

Hard to decide with 2 of these chasing debutants

BEAUTIFUL BEN - Not sure about his size

I like JUST GET CRACKING. He smells fancied
Small stable though which is a problem
Their horses are 0-35 since last February
That said several of them were placed

I am staying with my best profile here
Staying with the 5yo Chase debutants

Selection

Staked to £10

£4 Each Way JUST GET CRACKING 5/1

£2 Win BEAUTIFUL BEN 10/1



C h e l m s f o r d 6.10

3/1 Just Fab, 3/1 Lady Nayef, 7/2 Novantae
5/1 Fashion Fit, 10/1 Fancify, 16/1 Edith Weston
16/1 Lady Lloyd, 20/1 Sarabi.

This is a 2yo maiden over 6f for fillies
Not many can win this race
One of the issues here is LADY NAYEF having 9 runs
If you look at all fillies maidens in October at every distance
None of the winners had as many as 9 runs
That raises a doubt about her
Numbers that failed that stat were small though
I would ignore that statistic
She has good numbers and a recent run
JUST FAN has raced once. No statistical problems
She has to improve on the numbers though
NOVANTAE offers plenty and could be a compromise
She is experienced yet not too overraced
She has respectable numbers as well

Selection

NOVANTAE 5/2

Each Way



C h e l m s f o r d 6.40

6/4 Royal Pearl, 3/1 Not So Gentle, 6/1 Captain Gerald
6/1 Its A Sheila Thing, 8/1 Somers Lad, 20/1 Lady President
33/1 Bourne Symphony.

This is a 2yo Claimer over a Mile
There are only 10 of these races in October
Only a small sample size of similar races

I don't see enough I like about ROYAL PEARL
She is a filly and only has 3 career starts
In the 10 similar races in October
Fillies with under 5 career starts were 0-17
ROYAL PEARL fails that 0-17 record
If I extend that search to September October November
Fillies with under 5 runs were only 3-86
Those that ran within 25 days were 0-36
ROYAL PEARL just doesn't feel safe
Especially on a track that does not forgive easily

LADY PRESIDENT is too inexperienced
BOURNE SYMPHONY is not good enough
SOMERS LAD was beaten 20 lengths over 10f last time
That is a poor profile and I didn't like him
ITS A SHEILA THING has weak numbers
Rated 48 she is a long way behind on official ratings

Shortlist

CAPTAIN GERALD
NOT SO GENTLE

CAPTAIN GERALD has a stamina issue
Horses aged 2 sired by Captain Gerard
Are 0-17 running over a mile or more
There is a stamina doubt with this sire's juveniles
I can forgive him that
Beaten a close 2nd over 8f at Chelmsford
Ran well at Bath over 10f
He won't be far off staying
Forgive him his last run when he missed the break

He has form at Bath with Not So Gentle
He was only just behind him
Confident CAPTAIN GERALD didn't stay 10f that day
Almost every one of his career runs
He was a negative on breeding statistics
His official ratings are based on many non staying runs
His price is partly based on official ratings
That is why he is value
If he stays he can win
And he has a course and distance 2nd in the locker

NOT SO GENTLE has a recent run
He has the most persuasive profile
May not be the most trustworthy of characters
But at the prices on the profile he is the bet

Selection

CAPTAIN GERALD 8/1 Win Bet

NOT SO GENTLE 2/1 Saver Bet

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