0 Account Bet
0 Selection
1 Profile & Preview bet
0 Negative
5 Races Discussed

Last week turned out to be a winning week on
the account and whilst October is traditionally
a difficult month we have a W W L W L L P W W
record of bets behind us this month and would
need a disastrous run to finish lose this month.
We still have to choose our battles so carefully.

Despite that I am going with a risky bet today
This is not my bet to be honest

I have sub contracted the bet out
The bet comes purely unendorsed from my statistics

I don't know if it is fit or has any ability
The statistics argue I don't need to know that
So I will give them a chance and see what happens
I would only have done this at a good price
If they let me down I will take it on the chin
And impose some Statistical Austerity for a few days
This is the Only time this week I will take a chance
And go with a bet I know nothing about
I Was not going to do this
But when I typed the analysis up I changed my mind
And with the last 2 bets winning it's a good time for it
I wouldn't be doing this if my last two bets had lost


Today's Bet

Pontefract 2.40

STORMY ART 6/1- 13/2- 7/1

Each Way


Stormy Art 7/1 Bet365 Stan J Corals Betaway
Stormy Art 13/2 Skybet Boyles VC PPower Betfair
Stormy Art 6/1 Tote Betfred






T o d a y ' s M e s s a g e


Today's Bet

Pontefract 2.40

STORMY ART 7/1

Each Way


Trained by Micheal Dods
This is a 2yo maiden
This horse had 1 run months ago over 5f
Hasn't been seen since

From my point of view I have no idea if the horse
is any good or whether it is fit or even trying today.

My Statistics though are not based on Emotion.
They argue that I do not need to know such things
If you run his profile

Look at every 6f maiden in October
You find 15 horses with this profile
They finished in the following positions
W 9 W 18 W 3 4 W 8 W 2 W 6 4 W
That is a 7-15 record and a strike rate of 46.67%

Now if you only look at races in small fields
And only bet then in fields of 10 or under
That record then becomes this
W W W W W 4 W


STORMY ART 7/1 has this profile

This is why he is my best bet today

The race he came from at Haydock in June
Was the race the same trainer won with Meccas Angel
He is now a Group 1 winner

Michael Dods has ran 1 similar horse in October
Thats a once raced horse with a long absence
That horse (Commanche Raider) Won

If you think about it

You have a 2 year old that hasn't raced in months
If it was not fit and ready to win
Why bother rushing it out in the last few weeks of the season ?
You would be only run if it was showing something ?
Maybe thats why so many of them win ?

That is why he is my selection

Now I return to my original point

I have no idea of its ability or its fitness

The dilemma is should I ignore those rational fears
And just purely trust in the statistical data or not ?
I have no idea but I will risk him
The favourite only cost £1500 anyway
Not many can win the race
So why not have a few quid on
Just out of interest to see if the profile works






D a i l y N e g a t i v e s

No Negative Today

Results of Negatives

20 correct bets from 24






R u g b y

Not long to go in the Rugby now
Australia beat Scotland in a controversial ending
I saw the incident but have no idea of the rules
You need the wisdom of Soloman to understand the rules
Too old to worry about that now
One thing that does confuse me is this

Scotland were a whisker away from a great win
We know England have underperformed
Scotland, Wales and Ireland have been excellent

The bit I don't understand is this
The Six Nations tournament Starts on Febuary 6th
Why are Scotland 25/1 for the Six Nations ?
Why are England favourites ?
Since 2004 there have been 12 Six Nation Tournaments
England have won just 1 of the last 12
They have probably been favourite for most

England 2/1
Ireland 11/4
France and Wales 4/1
Scotland 251
Italy 500/1

Perhaps the reason is that other countries will be
dismantling their teams with retirements and the
squads will all change. I have no idea but looking
at the Six Nations betting 25/1 Scotland feels big.





S u n d a y s S u m m a r y

I made a good decision yesterday not to have
any staked bets but all other decisions I made
were clearly wrong. Both mentions were poor.
There are certain trainers that I try and ignore
and not stake bets on and I find that whilst we
miss out on some winners we save our money
a lot more. Front Five was from such a stable.

I just wonder if there was a false pace here as
the hold up horses dominated the finish which
included many doubtful stayers. All the horses
which made the running and raced prominently
were well beaten. I just have a slight suspicion
it turned into a sprint finish after early leaders
collapsed. I could be wrong but we were miles
away from winning that race. Oor Jock lost as
well and that was a limp attempt at a recovery.



P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s


W i n d s o r 1.50

6/4 Quatrieme Ami, 2/1 Shine Likeadiamond,
8/1 Don´t Tell Her, 8/1 Miss Uppity, 14/1 Sand By Me
20/1 Bella´s Boy, 33/1 Frank Sandatra.

This is a 2yo maiden over 5f

Complicated race where 2 horses stand out
MISS UPPITY is an unraced filly
I would stay with the experienced horses
DON´T TELL HER doesn't inspire me
Her numbers of 71 63 62 55 are regressing

QUATRIEME AMI deserves to be favourite
Complicated profile from a 6f Pattern race
I can find a filly winning like her with 2 runs
No Male has done it though with just 2 runs
Tiny smple size not a persuasive enough statistic

SHINE LIKEADIAMOND is no world beater
Her numbers are very consistent though
She is not far behind the favourite on the numbers
She has a very recent race
She has placed in her last 7 races

At the prices I would rather bet her each way
She may just be able to catch the favourite out

Selection

SHINE LIKEADIAMOND 3/1

Each Way (2 Places)





P o n t e f r a c t 2.10

6/1 Toboggan´s Fire, 8/1 Beverley Bullet
8/1 Billy Roberts, 8/1 Catastrophe, 8/1 Harlequin Rock
10/1 Airton, 10/1 Indulgent, 12/1 My Two Scoops
14/1 Maulesden May, 16/1 Black Hambleton, 20/1 Bo Bridget
33/1 Adherence, 33/1 Carbutt´s Ridge, 33/1 Permera.

This is a 2yo Nursery over a Mile
There are 93 similar races in October

I want to start with the draw
I looked at 91 races here since 2012
90 of the 91 winners were drawn 1 to 11
Horses drawn 12 or higher are 1-60
Horses drawn 13 or higher are 0-39

BILLY ROBERTS has the worst draw in Stall 16
That is just too extreme a draw to consider
ADHERENCE has to go from Stall 15
BLACK HAMBLETON is badly drawn in 13
His sire's never had a 2yo winner over 8f or more
Both factors put me off especially when inexperienced
CARBUTT´S RIDGE has an awful profile
INDULGENT has 3 runs and 52 days off the track
There were 2 winners overcoming that profile
They won many years ago and on better ground
I didn't think he had the class to overcome his absence
BO BRIDGET comes from a 10f maiden
Horses doing that have a 0-24 record
BO BRIDGET has a weak profile and is rejected
PERMERA is unsafe as a filly with just 3 runs
I wouldn't consider him from a weak stable
MAULESDEN MAY is a filly absent 62 days
That is a longer absence than any filly in the 93 races
If you look at fillies with under 5 career starts
Those absent more than 37 days were 0-50
MAULESDEN MAY fails that and is rejected
HARLEQUIN ROCK is quite exposed with 9 runs
Worries me he hasn't achieved a rating higher than 60
On reason for that might be a lack of application
He is described as Lazy by his jockey
Not overbig either and not my first choice
CATASTROPHE seems badly weighted to me
Racing Post Ratings of 67 66 66
Not sure he deserves a handicap mark of 72
There are horses with less weight and bigger numbers
Does he really deserve 9st 7lbs after 3 runs
I looked at every winner in similar races with 9st 7lbs +
When having under 4 career starts
There was a poor 1-33 record with these horses
The only winner was a Godolphin horse (Khusoosy)
That winner had huge numbers compared to him
I think he has a lot of weight for what he has achieved

Possibles

MY TWO SCOOPS comes up in distance
With 6 runs it is not an impossible profile
He has to prove he can stay though
His sire's had 8f winners on the All Weather
He has yet to have a 2yo winner on turf over a mile

AIRTON has 3 runs and 52 days absence
There were 2 winners overcoming that profile
They won many years ago and on better ground
Statistically I can't rule him out

TOBOGGAN´S FIRE has a neutral profile
No fillies like her tried to win similar races
She is fit and in form with a recent run though
Hasn't done too much wrong
She was entitled to need the run last time out
That was a decent 2nd in a trappy nursery
She will stay and she ticks a lot of boxes

BEVERLEY BULLET is drawn 12
Now there is a non runner his draw is effectively 11
Still higher than I would want but his profiles good
I am giving him the benefit of the doubt

Selection

BEVERLEY BULLET 8/1 Win Bet

TOBOGGAN´S FIRE 7/2 Saver Bet





P o n t e f r a c t 2.40

7/4 Hold On Magnolia, 5/1 Red Tea, 13/2 Stormy Art
8/1 Carlovian, 8/1 Mr Orange, 10/1 Calder Prince
16/1 King´s Currency, 20/1 Lilozza, 33/1 Frankster
100/1 Blue Jay.

This is a 6f maiden
This is full of uninspiring types

Statistically for me the problem is too many similar types
21 Pontefract maidens like this in October
Horses with 1 career start have a miserable 1-66 record
That stat will probably get broken today
Almost all the fancied runners have just 1 run

Had there been a horse with 2-3 runs I'd have liked him
There is the option of CARLOVIAN with 7 runs
He does look exposed and average
Then again so did last years winner with 6 runs
I wouldn't rule him out of nicking a place here
His fitness and experience will be of some help

CALDER PRINCE is one to avoid first time by Dark Angel
So few of those win and none have on this ground
He was a May 22nd foal and still very much a baby
He could be a place lay if the price is right

HOLD ON MAGNOLIA offers a dilemma
His first run was at Beverley
We know unraced horses there struggle
In September and October they are 1-207 at any distance
That tells us we can upgrade his performance
His Racing Post Rating was modest enough (65)
We can assume he is better than that though
My main problem is he was a cheap £1500 horse

The issue with RED TEA is similar
He also started his career st Beverley
He too must be considered capable of much better
He was only a Cheap £4000 purchase though as well
How far should we let that influence us ?

STORMY ART has 121 days off the track
Thats not a problem

Look at this profile
6f Maidens in October
1 previous race
Coming from a 5f maiden
Absent 120 days or longer
Starting under 25/1

Horses with this profile were 7-16
Thats a fantastic strike rate
When you consider time off the track
STORMY ART has this 7-16 profile


Selection

STORMY ART 7/1

Each Way





P o n t e f r a c t 3.40

11/4 Beast Mode, 11/4 Thanksfortellingme
4/1 Chinoiseries, 6/1 Lazzam, 7/1 Percy Street
10/1 Still On Top, 14/1 Dot Green.

This is a Listed race for 2 year olds over a mile
Never been the most compelling of trends races

I have looked at every similar race
Every Listed or Group race for 2 year olds over 8f +
I can't find any fillies that won one with just 1 previous run
Only 14 tried to be fair but none managed it
That is at any time of year in all similar races
CHINOISERIES has this problem
DOT GREEN also has this problem
I am avoiding once raced fillies so they are out

PERCY STREET has 2 runs from a maiden
I'd rather have a more substantial profile

STILL ON TOP has to come from 6f
He has 4 runs and I can't match him to a winner

BEAST MODE obviously has plenty of talent
Not my choice for one simple reason
2 year olds sired by Cape Cross over a Mile or more
When running in Listed or Group races they are 0-23
That is a very surprising sire stat

Shortlist

LAZZAM
THANKSFORTELLINGME
I find these two more persuasive than the others

Selection

£7.00 THANKSFORTELLINGME 5/2

£3.00 LAZZAM 7/1



P o n t e f r a c t 4.10

2/1 Persian Breeze, 4/1 Reetaj, 6/1 Ataman
6/1 Tidal Moon, 7/1 Sharp Rise, 8/1 Blue Sea Of Ibrox
12/1 Cassie, 16/1 Southerly Buster, 33/1 Snow Prince
40/1 Charpentiere, 40/1 Fastnet Red, 50/1 Orinocco
66/1 Danzella, 100/1 Longshaw, 100/1 Sustainable.

This is a 12f maiden
Big field of 15 runners
Probably just 6 that can win this

There is a serious draw bias here
59 races here since 2011
Horses drawn 9 are 0-58 since than
It certainly puts me off TIDAL MOON drawn 15
SHARP RISE drawn 9 is just in the wrong range
I don't want a horse drawn 8 in a maiden anyway
BLUE SEA OF IBROX is also rejected as a 7yo mare
Her sire's runners over 12f are 0-19 anyway

I think this is a 3 horse race
PERSIAN BREEZE - REETAJ - ATAMAN

Shortlist

PERSIAN BREEZE is a filly drawn 10
Her chance may depend on his cruel that draw is
ATAMAN has to prove stamina and fitness
His 91 day absence will be a challenge
REETAJ could be the compromise candidate

Selection

REETAJ 5/2

Each Way

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