0 Account Bet
0 Selection
1 Profile & Preview bets
1 Negative
3 Race Discussed



Today's Bet

Lingfield 4.05

TILSTARR 9/2 - 4/1

Each Way


We can get 9/2 but I'd wait for this afternoon
to be honest. There could be a non runner
which would be a disaster and she could be
weak in the betting anyway. I think she may
be twice the price in running anyway as she
looks likely to be racing off the pace as well.


9/2 Skybet Boyles VC Ladbrokes
9/2 Corals Stan J Betfair Independants
4/1 Tote Bet365 Betfred Spbet PPower Hills

It was beginning to shape up like a boring
and dull message which wasn't surprising
as today's tracks are not high on my list of
favoured courses. Then I came across an
angle that just changed the day completely.

BAQQA in the Lingfield 4.05pm looks sexy
She has impeccable connections
She is a warm favourite

However my angles are saying No
They clearly show her type are wrong
They have bullied me into opposing her

I have to go with TILSTARR

She is a bit of an old mule to be fair

My big worry is TILSTARR gets outpaced
or caught flat footed before running on a
bit too late as something may get first run.
It will be vile if that is BAQQA so hope my
angles work. They insist that I avoid her.




T o d a y s M e s s a g e

It is probably worth making a quick point
When I advise a Bet and Negative in the same race
If you follow the bets and the negatives
It means that you are double staking in the race

Not sure that is a good idea
I suppose it depends on your attitude to things
You could have half the stake on the bet
And half the stake opposing the negative
If things go wrong it is like 2 losers
If things go well it is like 2 winners
I suppose it may just come down to your choice

Sometimes statistics and profiles are amazing
They can give you second sight
Sometimes it almost feels like knowing the future

Equally at times they can go badly wrong
They can be a curse and blind you to the truth

The 4.05 result will be an example of one of the other








D a i l y N e g a t i v e s

1 Negative Today

Lingfield 4.05

BAQQA 5/4


Results of Negatives
18 correct bets from 21





M o n d a y s S u m m a r y

It was Monday Mentions all the way yesterday
and seconditus with the two bets I liked most.
This was not unexpected. Both were in races
that had just one danger. Our horses finished
second in both races so only each way singles
or doubles could have worked. I am obviously
glad I didn't make Ciandarragh a negative but
disappointed he won as I know some will have
opposed him. Maybe a good idea to avoid the
Willie Mullins negatives. We found the winner
in the last but that was the only one and really
there was not enough to get excited about.




P r o f i l e & P r e v i e w s



C a r l i s l e 2.45

11/4 Makin A Statement, 7/2 Ypres, 5/1 Circuitous
5/1 Mystical Moment, 10/1 Salvatore Fury
10/1 Thewestwalian, 12/1 Feel The Heat
16/1 Meandmyshadow, 25/1 Gold Beau, 33/1 Plunder.

This is a 0-69 handicap just short of 6f
There are 468 similar races in August


Racing Post Ratings
6f races on Good or Faster
In the last 12 months

78 Meandmyshadow - Feel The Heat
77 Meandmyshadow
75 Meandmyshadow - Meandmyshadow
70 Ypres - Ypres
68 Salvatore Fury
64 Meandmyshadow
63 Salvatore Fury
61 Meandmyshadow
60 Feel The Heat
59 Thewestwalian
58 Thewestwalian
53 Thewestwalian

MAKIN A STATEMENT is 3 and absent 133 days
3 year olds with absences struggle at Carlisle
Every all aged handicap at Carlisle over 5f 6f 7f
There were 163 of these handicaps all year round
Horses aged 3 won 10 of these 163 handicaps
None of them won absent more than 52 days
None of them won with under 6 career starts
MAKIN A STATEMENT has both those problems

CIRCUITOUS is 7 and drops down in distance
He is underraced this year with just 2 races
PLUNDER is woefully underraced this year
FEEL THE HEAT is an 8yo
He has raced just once in 76 days
Short of runs this year and well beaten last time
Not enough evidence of form or fitness
GOLD BEAU isn't running well enough

THEWESTWALIAN was well beaten over 7f last time
You have to dig deep for positives
There are some if you look for them
Both wins on right handed tracks with stiff finishes
If you take the view he doesn't stay 7f
You can excuse 15 of his 24 career runs
His numbers and backclass are just not impressive

YPRES has a recent run and does appeal
He has been running himself fit this year
He is a bit of a thinker with a low strike rate
Not entirely happy with him or his draw
Stall 1 is probably not the best draw here

MYSTICAL MOMENT is a 5yo mare down in trip
Only an average profile but has a chance
Her first 2 career runs were over 6f
Her last 23 races were over further though
She could get outpaced over this short a trip

MEANDMYSHADOW - I'd have preferred a better last run
She is a 7yo mare after all
The ground is in her favour though
She also dominates my Racing Post Ratings table

SALVATORE FURY is the class horse off topweight
He is taking a drop in class today
Hard to know when he wins but must have a chance
Look at his record under these circumstances
Class 5 races or lower
Running over 6f or shorter
Good or faster ground
Running within 6 weeks
Under 12 runners
SALVATORE FURY has a 6-27 record
Not one you can rely on but chances in this class

Selection

SALVATORE FURY 7/1

Each Way



L i n g f i e l d 4.35

13/8 Moonlight Sonata, 2/1 Prescience
9/4 Libbard, 20/1 Starcrossed, 20/1 Thecornishbarron
66/1 Dainty Daisey.

This is a 12f maiden
Thought this was quite interesting
Should be dominated by 3 big stables

MOONLIGHT SONATA is sired by Galileo
LIBBARD is sired by Galileo
PRESCIENCE is sired by Kyllachy

You would have thought the Galileo's were safer

PRESCIENCE is sired by Kyllachy
I looked at the record of Kyllachy's offspring over 12f +
There were winners but all had 5 or more career runs
Those with under 5 runs were 0-20
PRESCIENCE only has 2 runs
He has ran well over just short of this distance
The other two horses look more natural 12f types

MOONLIGHT SONATA doesn't have the safest profile
Looked at similar races for 3yo fillies with absences
The longest absence a filly had was 68 days
Those absent longer than 68 days were 0-29
MOONLIGHT SONATA fails that absent 109 days
I just wonder how much scope she has anyway
When she was beaten at Sandown last April
She didn't impress paddock watchers that day
One described her as medium sized with little body

LIBBARD is a filly absent 53 days
I looked at fillies who won absent 50-70 days
I found 3 winners who had 2 2 3 previous races
LIBBARD has 3 races and is like a winner
That was a horse called Starry Messenger
I think she has the safest all round profile

Selection

LIBBARD 2/1

Win Bet





L i n g f i e l d 4.05

6/4 Baqqa, 4/1 Tilstarr, 13/2 Chella Thriller
7/1 Thunder In Myheart, 10/1 Diletta Tommasa
12/1 Cape Rosie, 12/1 Fridge Kid, 16/1 Lady Hare.

This is a Fillies handicap over 10f
Open to all aged horses

My angles seem to hate BAQQA
She comes from a maiden this year
She has raced just 3 times before
She failed to win that maiden

She badly fails this statistic

Fillies Handicaps in August since 2002
Any Distance
Any Class
Horses coming from Maiden races this season
Beaten in that maiden
Under 5 career starts

Horses with this profile were 0-99
This profile surprises me
Not that None have won as maidens-handicaps is hard
Just the ferocity of this statistic
Don't forget it covers fillies handicaps at every distance
And in every class at all
These horses are often fancied as well
43 of these losers started 10/1 or shorter
18 of these losers started 4/1 or shorter
8 of these losers started 2/1 or shorter


BAQQA is a John Gosden horse
Obviously a master of his art
I hate opposing this mans horses
BAQQA is so sexy
Lightly raced Gosden/Hamdan Al Maktoum horse
Cost a serious looking 400,000 Guineas
Her Racing Post Ratings have improved every run
I am quite scared about opposing her
That said my angles demand that I do

The alternative is hard to find
Made harder by just 5 similar races in August

LADY HARE doesn't look up to much
FRIDGE KID - hard to like beaten in a 3yo seller last time

DILETTA TOMMASA has pieces of good form
Not easy to read she has to be respected
Not keen on the way she starts these days
Developed a habit of missing the break
She's a small horse as well which puts me off

CHELLA THRILLER has a recent run
That was over 14f though
It's asking a lot o drop from 14f to 10f
Especially when an exposed mare
Shouldn't really be the selection on her profile

Shortlist

THUNDER IN MYHEART is probably capable enough
She has been disappointing though
A 50 day absence hurts her profile
Coming from a Classified race isn't the norm either

CAPE ROSIE - There appear more obvious contenders
She could go well at a big price though
She went off hard last time on a Grade 1 track
This should be easier so I don't rule her out

TILSTARR is an exposed 5yo
She is the class horse off topweight
She definitely has the ability to win
I just hope she will against younger horses

Selection

TILSTARR 4/1

Each Way

****************************************************
****************************************************