0 Account Bet
0 Selection
0 Profile & Preview bet
0 Negatives
7 Races Discussed

Apologies for the short delay today. It was not
Racing Related. Since Saturdays big winner I
think my analysis has been a bit scrambled so
I'm just in the process of repositioning things
trying to get into a proper rhythm as I am just
a bit off the pace with my timing. The plan on
Friday is a shorter message with a bet. That's
likely to put me right for Saturday's message.

I really like two short priced horses today but
sometimes all that glistens is not gold. Rightly
or wrongly I have decided not to stake either.

I have downgraded one to a saver and included
him with an outsider as the messages best bet.


T o d a y ' s M e s s a g e


First of all there are no account bets today

This is my Best bet and then the thought process


Today's Best Bet


Chelmsford 8.40

Split Stake Bet Staked to £10

£3 Each Way GOLDEN BIRD 11/1 -12/1

£4 Win Saver SHIFTING MOON 7/4



Four meetings today as I am not including the
Laytown card as this is just a 7f strip of beach
turned into a racecourse for a day without any
starting stalls so I just can not take it seriously.

This is not a very ambitious message
Slighty perturbed about how many favourites I like
I am highlighting these two races


Chepstow 2.15

REAL SMART 5/4

Win Bet


Chelmsford 8.80 - Staked to £10

£3 Each Way GOLDEN BIRD 11/1

£4 Win SHIFTING MOON 7/4


I mentioned REAL SMART recently as a horse
I wanted to stake as a bet and was about to do
just that before he pulled out of his latest run.
I think he ran a very eye catching debut race.
I feel he could eat these alive if we go for him.

SHIFTING MOON has a W W 7 W profile and
is in a race where every runner has flaws so
I can see him improving a track record to 4-4.
There is a slight stamina worry though and I
have decided to downgrade him to the saver
on those ground and because of the prices.
This is not a track I want to take chances with.

I didn't really want a win bet as a short price
Not SHIFTING MOON with stamina issues
Not REAL SMART as a once raced horse


REAL SMART is a possible bet but his price
is shorter than I wanted and I question the
sense of betting an inexperienced horse at
Chepstow at a short price. Why take risks if
you don't have to. The past winners of his
race had 4 7 9 8 1 career starts. There was
a once raced winner like her but most had
a lot more runs and I do heed that warning.

I did consider the each way double

REAL SMART
SHIFTING MOON

I love that but I like a lot of these bets that
stand out on paper and plenty get beaten.

All that glistens is not gold.


Thats why I am going for the Split Stake Bet


Chelmsford 8.80 - Staked to £10

£3 Each Way GOLDEN BIRD 11/1

£4 Win SHIFTING MOON 7/4

I think it is potentially more rewarding
It is also much safer as well
I think it is a sensible choice of bet

Not one I am going to stake though.
It is too messy and at risk of a non runner.
I want my next bet to be when I am spot on.



D a i l y N e g a t i v e s

No Negatives Today

Results of Negatives

20 correct bets from 24




M o n d a y s S u m m a r y

I left it alone yesterday instead going with just
three previews. We just about broke level with
the Speed Hawk split stake. The ground didn't
look like advertised to me and I am pleased to
get out of the race without a loss. The second
preview saw Star of Lombardy lose and shows
the problem with horses like her who flopped
last time. Even if you have excuses for a poor
run you can never assume they will progress.
The last preview was an each way placed bet.
Anyone who followed me with the 4 each way
doubles nicked a few pound ahead which did
seem reasonable as none of the horses won.




P r o f i l e & P r e v i e w s


D o n c a s t e r 1.55

9/4 Nemoralia, 6/1 Alpine Dream, 10/1 Unilit, 14/1 Greenfyre
14/1 Our Joy, 14/1 Pinky Promise, 14/1 Sharaakah
16/1 Fashionable Spirit, 16/1 Illegally Blonde, 16/1 Jet Setting
16/1 Lavinia Rose, 16/1 Salvo, 20/1 Company Asset,
20/1 Rebel Surge 25/1 Baby Ballerina, 25/1 Caitie,
25/1 Canny Style, 25/1 Harmony Bay 33/1 Quick N Quirky.

Fillies Nursery and a Ridiculous start
I would avoid the following horses
Horses drawn 4-5-6-7-8-9
Horses with under 3 runs
Horses from 5f races
Horses absent more than 50 days
Horses from Listed or Group races
This leads to the following shortlist

LAVINIA ROSE - OUR JOY - REBEL SURGE
NEMORALIA - SHARAAKAH - GREENFYRE

NEMORALIA is a short price at 15/8
She was very impressive at Kempton though
Has a turn of foot and could outclass these
One small worry statistically
Horses with 9st 7lbs in this race were 0-15
I think I would make sure I couldn't lose if she won
There are 4 places and that is an advantage
I would see her as best placed in an each way double
Maybe use NEMORALIA in this race
With REAL SMART in the 2.15pm at Chepstow




E p s o m 2.05

7/4 Lytham St Annes, 5/2 Wimpole Hall, 5/1 Regality
10/1 False Id, 10/1 Take Charge, 33/1 King Of Cornwall.

This is a 2yo maiden over 7f

LYTHAM ST ANNES would be my choice
I prefer him to WIMPOLE HALL
Partly down to a much safer stable for starters

TAKE CHARGE has been well backed
I can see him winning without leaping off the page
He was 66/1 in a maiden on his debut which is offputting

I dont see LYTHAM ST ANNES as a banker
More a mild preference
Made milder by the fact just 6 horses run
Would have looked an each way double horse really
LYTHAM ST ANNES is a lukewarm selection

Selection

LYTHAM ST ANNES 7/4

Win Bet




C h e p s t o w 2.15

7/4 Real Smart, 7/2 Fei Kuai
5/1 Star Of Spring, 20/1 Earnestine, 25/1 District Twelve
33/1 Chica Rapida, 33/1 Tatiani, 40/1 So Stroppy Poppy
100/1 Pistyll Rhaeadr.

This is a 3yo fillies maiden over 7f

STAR OF SPRING has the best numbers
She has gone 12 runs without a win though
Her numbers are respectable but she must have limitations

FEI KUAI - Her profile is fine
I don't like Stall 1 here though
Since 2011 there were 46 races over 7f here with 9 + runners
Horses drawn 1 or in the lowest stall are 0-46 in these races
There are just 9 runners so that draw stat just stands

REAL SMART

Raced once on this course in August
I loved her first run on video
I think she has a lot of ability
I was going to bet this horse at Newcastle
She didn't run that day
I'd hope she has more ability than these

REAL SMART 5/4

Win Bet




D o n c a s t e r 2.30

100/30 Fadhayyil, 11/2 Mistrusting, 8/1 Kiyosh
8/1 Majestic Queen, 10/1 Lucky Kristale, 12/1 Dusky Queen
14/1 Lady Correspondent, 16/1 Muffri´ha, 16/1 Pearly Steph
16/1 Realtra, 16/1 Terror, 20/1 Penmaen, 25/1 Primrose Valley
33/1 Bella Nostalgia, 33/1 Bold Lass, 33/1 Don´t Be, 33/1 Excilly
33/1 Marsh Hawk, 33/1 Pelerin, 66/1 Zifena.

The Sceptre Stakes is a Listed race for fillies over 7f
Another hideous looking race
Statistics point me towards these areas
I'd avoid the following horses
Horses aged 4 or more
Horses from Handicaps when absent over 9 days
Horses without Listed or Group form
Horses with under 3 runs
Horses absent over 5 months
Horses from Class 3 or lower

This leads to a shortlist of 5
Some of which do have other doubts about them
TERROR - Not keen on absence or ground
EXCILLY - Not keen she has 1 run in 78 days
REALTRA - Winning over 8f last time worries me
PEARLY STEPH - Filly with absence and down from 9f to 7f

FADHAYYIL is favourite but may be the best option
Barry Hills has said this week that she will win this race
Not very original but my angles point to her

Selection

FADHAYYIL 7/2

Win Bet




D o n c a s t e r 3.00

3/1 Hidden Gold, 7/2 Koora, 5/1 Gretchen
13/2 Toe The Line, 8/1 Arabian Comet, 9/1 Vive Ma Fille
10/1 Asyad, 16/1 Melodious, 20/1 Island Remede
25/1 Groovejet, 33/1 Mill Springs.

The Park Hill Stakes is a Group 2 for fillies
It is the only race of it's kind at this time of year

This the number of runs past winners had since 1997
8 5 6 12 18 7 15 7 16 19 16 8 6 10 10 10 8 9 8
Eva Luna 1996 (4yo) had 2 runs but that years ago
Horses with 5-12 runs are best

This race has never gone to a horse with under 5 runs
KOORA looks very inexperienced with 3 runs
GRETCHEN only has 4 runs and that's a concern
I can't forgive her that given she is drawn widest of all
That is probably the worst draw in the race
Most past winners came from Listed/Group races
Horses from Handicaps have a weak 1-29 record
That winner came from a Listed Handicap
Horses from Class 2 Handicaps or lower are 0-12
GROOVEJET fails this
TOE THE LINE also fails this and is a bit exposed
ARABIAN COMET also fails this handicap statistic
With 14 runs she is a little bit on the exposed side
MILL SPRINGS is wrong from a Class 4 handicap
She looks too experienced and short of backclass
ISLAND REMEDE has more runs than any 4yo winner
I think She's too exposed and she fails my breeding stats

VIVE MA FILLE - No strong statistical issues
I don't like his sire's record though
Look at horses sired by Doyen
When running in Listed or Group races they are just 1-55
That winner won over far shorter than this
Not sure She will get home in the class
MELODIOUS may find this a bit warm
Almost all winners came from Pattern races
She does not do that and her numbers are average

Shortlist

ASYAD has a decent profile
He is very similar to last years winner
My question is stamina
Horses sired by New Approach over 14f + are 5-53
Those that ran in Class 4 or higher are just 1-37
Those that ran in Listed race or higher 0-9
Many have placed though and he could well stay
The sires had placed horses in the Leger and Queens Vase

HIDDEN GOLD has plenty of positives
No horse has won this down from 1m 7f or longer though
Only 5 tried so I can forgive her that


Selection

Split Stake

£2.50 Each Way ASYAD 10/1

£5.00 Win HIDDEN GOLD 4/1




C h e p s t o w 3.25

4/1 The Resdev Way, 9/2 Hajeer, 5/1 Battle Of Bosworth
11/2 Senza Una Donna, 6/1 Ashford Island, 13/2 Mayfair Magic
12/1 Custodial, 14/1 Frivolous Prince, 16/1 Majestica
20/1 Flash N Smart.

This is a 2yo Nursery over a Mile
September has 39 similar races

There is one statistic I like in 8f low grade Nurseries
In explains the chances of defying an absence
When you have inexperienced horses
8f Nurseries in September and October
Horses absent over 31 days
When having Under 4 career starts
Horses with this profile have a 0-104 record
That suggests lightly raced horses
Don't have enough to beat fitter more experienced rivals
They manage it in better class nurseries
When running in Low grade nurseries they haven't yet won
The following horses fail this 0-104 record
BATTLE OF BOSWORTH fails this 0-104 record
ASHFORD ISLAND fails this 0-104 record
FRIVOLOUS PRINCE fails this 0-104 record
SENZA UNA DONNA fails this 0-104 record
If I look at Male horses from 7f maidens
There were 3 winners and all 3 ran within 19 days
Those that did not were 0-56
SENZA UNA DONNA and FRIVOLOUS PRINCE fail this
MAYFAIR MAGIC is not for me
Don't like his draw or profile
His sire hasn't yet bred a 2yo winner over 8f either
FLASH N SMART looks a non stayer
CUSTODIAL comes from 6f
Horses doing this had a 4-132 record
None of these came from a Nursery as she does (0-27)
If you look at Fillies that came from 6f races
They have a modest 1-69 record
That winner was not like CUSTODIAL

Shortlist

HAJEER - Looks one of the best options
I fancied her at 7/4 in a maiden last time
She blew the start and raced into the lead
She ended up setting the race up for closers
Both are stables I don't like to rely on
HAJEER is a blue blood that may be better class
Not keen on relying on his stable

THE RESDEV WAY - Safest profile by some way

Selection

THE RESDEV WAY 7/2 Win Bet

HAJEER 7/1 Saver Bet




C h e l m s f o r d 8.40

7/4 Shifting Moon, 9/4 Grams And Ounces, 11/2 Tolah
13/2 Dr Finley, 10/1 Golden Bird, 12/1 Willow Jubilee,
18/1 Sheila´s Heart, 20/1 Belrog.

This is a 2m handicap for 0-60 rated horses
There are 57 similar races at this time of year

DR FINLEY is 8 and has 1 run in 15 months
I want a much fitter profile than that
SHEILA´S HEART has a similar problem
He has raced just once since the end of 2014
BELROG is not running well enough
WILLOW JUBILEE's numbers are too low

GRAMS AND OUNCES - My problem with him is stamina
Royal Applause has bred hundreds of winners
His runners over 2m or more are just 1-68
That winner (Royal Entourage) was lucky
The favourite Fell in a flat race and brought down another
H has plenty of National Hunt form which suggests stamina
That 1-68 record tells me he may not stay

TOLAH is a 3yo filly with just 3 runs from a 12f maiden
I looked at all similar races in September
3yo fillies with under 6 runs were 0-19
3yo fillies from maidens were 0-6
If she wins she will be the first of her type to do so

SHIFTING MOON has easily got the best profile

Fillies aged 3
Winning last time over 14f or 15f
6 or more career starts
4 horses had her profile
They finished W W 7 W

My problem aside from the price
Has to be stamina
Kheleyf has bred 2 mile winners
None however were 3 year olds
That worries me and this is a testing 2 miles

Can I be sure SHIFTING MOON will stay

Having thought about it I have decided to save on him
And go with a better priced option

If I look at 4yo males
That come up in distance from 1m 7f or shorter
Those that had under 19 runs were 0-36
GOLDEN BIRD has this profile
I thought he could run quite well but his profiles unsafe
That said only 15 of these were fancied
A High number of these were placed
I think he has been running himself fit recently
He has upgrades stables this year as well
He has size and scope
If the favourite stays he may win
If he wins I won't care
If he doesn't then I think we may be on the winner


Selection

£4 Win SHIFTING MOON 7/4

£3 Each Way GOLDEN BIRD 11/1

****************************************************
****************************************************