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1 Profiles/Preview bets
1 Races Discussed


A cold snowy day and unlikely to see much
National Hunt action before the weekend so
it is likely to be a quiet slow and grim week.

I am starting my Cheltenham race statistics
today and the Supreme Novice Hurdle kicks
us off. Last week was nothing special. Not a
lot of damage but we dipped a little. As soon
as you look back at past results and find the
profits are higher than you thought it starts
to automatically changes your perspective
so I started taking fewer risks to defend the
profits which makes no sense. This week it
could be the weather that changes plans.

I will take the week day by day. No interest
in doing too much on rescheduled fixtures
and if this means short messages so be it.

Today involves just one major preview and
it will probably be a loser given his price of
16/1 but I think there's a chance of a shock.
Bit of a wild opening bet of the week today.




Profiles and Previews Selections


Southwell 1.55

MAZOVIAN 16/1 Each Way

AMAZING BLUE SKY 9/4 Saver



Staking Guide

MAZOVIAN 16/1

£5.00 Win
£2.50 Place

AMAZING BLUE SKY 9/4

£2.50 Win




If AMAZING BLUE SKY wins we will return at least
80% of our stakes and I wanted to save on him as
he has a solid chance but the best jockey by some
way and that is reassuring as we are on an outsider.

The other jockeys in this race have ridden 56 past
winners between them. Sarah Brotherton has now
ridden 81 winners far more than the rest together.



P r o f i l e s a n d P r e v i e w s


S o u t h w e l l 1.55

11/4 Amazing Blue Sky, 4/1 Kyllachykov
13/2 Cherry Tiger, 15/2 Josie´s Dream,
10/1 Weybridge Light, 12/1 Monzino, 14/1 Mazovian
16/1 Sawwala, 20/1 Santayana 25/1 Swords
25/1 Valentine´s Gift, 33/1 Brian The Lion.

This is an Amateur Riders handicap over 11f
and with so few races over this distance not
an easy race to do. There are 13 direct races
at Southwell and about 50 other similar ones
at other tracks around this range of distance.
You are better off with a fit male horse here.

* SWORDS - Unacceptable profile. Too old
* VALENTINE´S GIFT - Weak stable and he's outclassed
* BRIAN THE LION is far too inexperienced
* He has 4 runs and all 50 winners had at least 6 runs
* SANTAYANA - Absent far too long for a mare

* WEYBRIDGE LIGHT is 10 and comes from hurdles
* Horses aged 8 or more doing this were 0-27
* WEYBRIDGE LIGHT is therefore not like a winner
* I don't like his 37 day absence but that's prejudiced
* There's been older horses winning with longer breaks
* He has no Southwell form either
* I wasn't drawn to his profile

* CHERRY TIGER comes from a mile race
* He was beaten 15 lengths over a mile last time
* Horses beaten 10 + lengths over a mile are 0-34
* CHERRY TIGER fails that 0-34 statistic
* There were 3 winners from 8f races
* None were aged 5-6-7 and he is a 5yo
* None were absent more than 3 weeks and he is
* I wanted more statistical promise

* MONZINO isn't running very well at the moment
* He has got some runs in the past that could win this
* Hard to see why he should suddenly bounce back
* He didn't stay 2 miles two runs ago
* He wasn't fit Three runs ago
* There are a few runs you can excuse him for
* It would be a leap of faith to think he will win though

* KYLLACHYKOV has a chance
* He is effective over the course and distance
* I don't think he stays 12f
* All the dams offspring were sprinters or milers
* He probably didn't get home over 12f on his last 2 runs
* He has raced just once in 77 days though
* Thats my only main objection to his chance
* He can win if at peak fitness but will he be ?

* JOSIE´S DREAM is 7 and absent 64 days
* Statistically that's manageable so I'd pass him on that
* None came down in distance but again not too worried
* He may not have stayed 14f last time
* I think he gets credit for being 3rd in this race last year
* He's clearly only modest but no strong objections

Shortlist

* SAWWALA is a mare hammered last time out
* No mare was beaten as far and her profiles weak
* She does have the 2nd best jockey though
* Could be an excuse for her last run
* May have raced on the wrong part of the course
* I'd have her 3rd best here

* AMAZING BLUE SKY is a 9 year old
* He is fit and running well so he seems fine
* You can argue it's not really his time of year
* 9 of his 10 career wins came May to August
* That said one of the more likely ones to run his race
* There are enough positives to shortlist him

* MAZOVIAN was well beaten over 2m last time
* Horses with his profile were 0-10
* None won but several did place
* Therefore an unsafe profile but not dead
* I also worry about his draw in Stall 2
* 11f handicaps here with 10 + runners
* Horses drawn 1-2-3 are just 1-42 since 2011
* So there are clear negatives but I see positives too
* This horse has simply not been fit in 2014-2015
* He should not be approaching full fitness
* He has also not been staying in his races
* We know a few things about his Sire E Dubai
* He has more winners at Southwell than anywhere
* His runners don't appear to stay 12 furlongs
* MAZOVIAN has not stayed in his last 3 races
* Last time over 2m he led for a long way
* Set a fast pace over 2m and understandably favoured
* Today he should stay 11f and should be fit
* It has been 2 years since we can say that
* That he raced over an appropriate trip and was fit
* MAZOVIAN could easily provide a shock here
* His negatives do worry me a bit
* I also see serious positives for him today as well

Selection

MAZOVIAN 16/1 Each Way

AMAZING BLUE SKY 9/4 Saver






C h e l t e n h a m

T u e s d a y 1.30pm

Sky Bet Supreme Novices´ Hurdle
Grade 1 (4yo+) 2m110y

* Look at the Number of Racecourse Appearances
* This includes Flat , Foreign, Bumper & Hurdle runs
* Past winners had the following Racecourse Appearances
* 8 9 8 5 8 9 8 6 21 9 7 7 26 17 13 29 18 10 8 7 15
* Every recent winners had at least 5 previous runs
* 20 of the last 22 winners had ran at least 6 times before
* Horses with 1-2-3-4 runs are negatives

* Horses aged 5 or 6 dominate
* They have won 11 of the last 12 renewals
* They have won 36 of the last 40 renewals

* Last Time out winners have a strong record
* 16 of the last 18 winners won last time
* Horses unplaced last time out were 0-129

* Recent winners had the following hurdle runs
* 5 4 4 4 4 5 2 2 4 4 7 4 2 3 2 2 3
* The last 5 winners had 5 4 4 4 4 previous hurdle runs
* Horses with 6 + runs over hurdles underperformed
* Horses with 1 run have not won since 1991
* Ideally you need 2 + runs over Hurdles before
* If it's soft ground you need at least 3 previous races
There are winners that won with just 2 hurdle runs
*These were all aged 6 or 7
* Horses aged 5 that had under 3 hurdle runs are poor
* Since 1998 these horses have a 0-45 record
* French Ballerina did it in 1998 but she was different
* She was a mare with a sex allowance and Group 1 flat form
* Flown in 1992 was a lightly raced 5yo winner so it can be done
* Recent evidence suggest these horses struggle
* 5yo winners had the following hurdle runs
* 5 4 4 4 4 2 3
* 6yo winners had the following hurdle runs
* 4 4 5 2 7 2 2
* Ignore horses from Class 4 or lower (0-111)
* Ignore horses running in the previous 2 weeks
* Ignore horses stepping down from 19f or more (0-29)
* Ignore horses that wear headgear
* Female horses are fine as long as they pass other trends
* Horses from Handicaps have a 0-42 record
* The 2012 and 2010 runner ups did that though
* I looked at Grade 1 Hurdle races at the Festival
* Looked for horses that fell last time out
* Since 1996 all 57 that tried failed

* The majority of winners run within 7 weeks
* 19 of the last 20 had run within 69 days
* Any longer is a concern unless very lightly raced
* I'd only consider longer absences if having 2 hurdle runs

* I am isolating English Horses to look at
* Every English winner had 2-5 runs this season
* Avoid English horses aged 7 or more

* English horses aged 5 won 5 renewals
* Four of these had 3-6 career starts the other 9 runs
* They all had 3 or 4 runs that season
* The longest absence an English 5yo had was 52 days
* English horses aged 6 won 3 renewals
* All 3 came from Class 3 Novice Hurdles
* English horses with less than 2 wins were 0-119

* Racing Post Ratings of Past winners
* This is the Racing Post Rating on the day of the race
* 158 164 151 155 150 152 159 150 150 146 152

* Career Racing Post Ratings of Past winners
* These are Bumper and Hurdle RPR's only
* 2014 winner (Age 5) 111 116 140 145 150
* 2013 winner (Age 6) 126 138 142 142 130 150 112 150
* 2012 winner (Age 5) 99 114 120 114 105 129 145 128 141
* 2011 winner (Age 6) 123 121 129 134 123 138 121 142
* 2010 winner (Age 5) 128 124 137 151 141
* 2009 winner (Age 6) 103 119 119 127 129 149 139 146
* 2008 winner (Age 7) 100 102 111 108 122 145
* 2007 winner (Age 6) 114 116
* 2006 winner (Age 5) 110 110 99 127 136 137
* 2005 winner (Age 5) 117 127 143 125
* 2004 winner (Age 6) 59 79 85 67 127 127 107 118 145

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