0 Account Bet
1 Selection
9 Profiles/Preview bets
11 Races Discussed



Today's Selection

Warwick 3.35

Split Stake

RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE 11/1 Each Way

TALES OF MILAN 22/1 Each Way



Staking Guidance to £10 Stakes

£3 Each Way Rigadin De Beauchene 11/1

£2 Each Way Tales of Milan 22/1



This is quite an interesting Saturday despite
only a few meetings. My race I really wanted
to get right was the Warwick Chase but this
is not a one race message. There are plenty
of races I feel are potentially interesting and
without knowing any results yet it does feel
a message of substance so fingers crossed.

It's a slow burner that starts very slowly and
builds up the momentum to the final preview.
I like it but all Saturday messages are creative
masterpieces before any races are run but it
is a lot harder to say that at the end of play.




Warwick Chase

One of the best profiles does not run
Global Power pulling out has been a problem
I found the shortlist of 4 quite easy
I found the staking quite hard

RETURN SPRING - His type can no longer be ruled out
SIXTY SOMETHING - Profile good but breeding doubts
TALES OF MILAN - The price outweighs the concerns
RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE - I can see him placing +




Profiles and Previews Selections


Kempton 1.00 - Lay Cocktails At Dawn to Place 8/13
Kempton 1.00 - Lay Cold March to Place 8/13

Lingfield 1.30 - Spellmaker 5/1 Each Way
Lingfield 1.30 - Black Vale 7/1 Saver Bet

Lingfield 2.05 - Willie Wag Tail 7/2 Each Way

Warwick 2.25 - Closing Ceremony 6/1 Win to half stakes
Warwick 2.25 - Join The Clan 14/1 Each Way to half stakes

Kempton 2.40 - Hello George 5/1 Win Bet
Kempton 2.40 - Warrantor 5/4 Place Bet

Warwick 3.00 - Shantou Bob 11/10 Win Bet
Warwick 3.00 - Flintham 12/1 Saver

Lingfield 3.10 - Chicago Bere 3/1 Win Bet

Kempton 3.15 - Midnight Appeal 6/1 Each Way

Warwick 3.35 - Rigadin De Beauchene 10/1 Each Way
Warwick 3.35 - Tales of Milan 22/1 Each Way




Potential Selections/Account Bet Options


Lingfield 2.05

Willie Wag Tail 7/2 Each Way

Has every right to be considered as the days best bet


Warwick 2.25

Closing Ceremony 6/1 Win to half stakes
Join The Clan 14/1 Each Way to half stake

I like my analysis a lot but it is very one dimensional
and relying heavily on breeding and I don't know if I
have staked this one well enough. I can't be sure if
one will handle the track and the others ridden by a
jockey who has never had a winner before.


Kempton 3.15

Midnight Appeal 6/1 Each Way

Has some solid parts of his profile that could make
him a potential bet. My one worry is I've shortlisted
5 horses in the race so could it be a bit too warm ?


Warwick 3.35

Rigadin De Beauchene 10/1 Each Way
Tales of Milan 22/1 Each Way

Again strongly considered as the days bet. I don't
want to turn it into a vanity project and we've lost
the 4th place now and he is a seasonal debutant.
I had to change track after a non runner. I had the
dilemma to either go with RETURN SPRING as a
saver or stay with TALES OF MILAN each way so
I made the decision and did so on breeding/price.





P r o f i l e s a n d P r e v i e w s


Punchestown 12.40

2/1 Apache Jack, 2/1 Jarry D´honneur
5/2 Bishops Road, 7/1 Busty Brown, 25/1 Futuramic
40/1 Kilford, 50/1 Tooreen, 66/1 Capture The Drama.

This is a 2m 4f Beginners Chase
Obviously limited to what we can do here
Not least with a favourite with no Chase runs
APACHE JACK comes from a Grade 1 hurdle
Thats a good profile. 5 winners did it from 10 to try
I'd rather have him than JARRY D´HONNEUR
No strong reason but his 1st chase run was just ok
Also not sure he will stay this far by a flat bred
BUSTY BROWN looks a serious danger
Could play a place role in a confusing race
Best profile is APACHE JACK
Feels to me like a race I should sit out

No Selection



W a r w i c k 12.45

This is a Novice Handicap Hurdle
Too hard for me so no selection
I did see one interesting statistic
This is about 4 year olds
There are 64 similar races in January over 2m - 2m1f
Horses aged 4 had a poor record 2-60 record
Those that were beaten last time out were 0-48
AVEL VOR Fails this 0-48 statistic
There are 4yo's that won at longer distances
None were beaten in handicaps like him
With a 7 day break I am a bit loathe to oppose him
My angles say AVEL VOR is one to avoid
Too big to lay. Best to oppose him in a match bet

No Selection



K e m p t o n 1.00

6/4 Cocktails At Dawn, 7/4 Cold March
5/1 Lost Legend, 6/1 Key To The West
12/1 Ostland.

Not sure about this race. It's clear that softer
ground isn't ideal for COCKTAILS AT DAWN
so I explored the possibility of opposing him.
There are 100 similar handicaps in January.
None were won by a 5 year old. Admittedly
only 5 tried but that makes COLD MARCH a
bit unsafe when none his age have won an
identical race. Can you be sure he will stay
anyway out of a 7f flat horse ? I am bailing
with question marks about the others too.
I wont be surprised if LOST LEGEND wins
despite a big absence as they are flaws in
all of these. I won't be shocked if he wins

Selection

Lay the two favourites to place

Lay Cocktails At Dawn to place 8/13

Lay Cold March to place 8/13

The only way you can lose money is if
they finish 1st and 2nd. They may well
do that but there are concerns and we
have a chance of an upset in this race.



L i n g f i e l d 1.30

4/1 Pharoh Jake, 5/1 Chapellerie, 5/1 Lujeanie
5/1 Profile Star, 6/1 Tidal´s Baby, 7/1 Black Vale
7/1 Spellmaker, 14/1 Half Way.

* This is a 6f handicap for 0-70 rated horses
* January has 264 similar races
* The following horses are opposed
* Horses that won 5f races last time are 2-36
* Those aged 5 or more doing this are 0-26
* PHAROH JAKE is 7 and therefore fails this
* TIDAL´S BABY - Down from 8f and downgraded yards
* Look at Mares aged 5 or more
* Those absent more than 42 days were 0-44
* CHAPELLERIE fails this aged 6 absent 64 days
* HALF WAY - Weak profile and downgraded yards
* The above horses are negatives

On Old Racing Post Ratings PROFILE STAR
would win easily but that was a long time ago
and his trainer has had just 1 winner since
the start of 2014 just over a year ago. I don't
like the fact he has had just one proper race
in the last 68 days. I am not shortlisting him.


* BLACK VALE - Shortlistable
* Horses aged 4 absent a month
* Those with 18 or more runs are just 1-33
* BLACK VALE has this 1-33 profile
* Not enough to make him the selection
* He does like a small field though
* Thats why he is the saver

Shortlist

SPELLMAKER - BLACK VALE - LUJEANIE

Statistically my angles have done their job
It is a good job if one of the shortlist wins
From here It has to be a bit of guesswork


Selection

Lingfield 1.30 - SPELLMAKER 5/1 Each Way
Lingfield 1.30 - BLACK VALE 7/1 Saver




L i n g f i e l d 2.05

2/1 Wrood, 7/2 Willie Wag Tail, 9/2 Gold Trail
7/1 Spiritual Star, 8/1 Kings Bayonet
12/1 Faithful Mount, 16/1 Sensible Way
20/1 Ansaab.

* This is a 10f handicap for 0-87 rated horses
* January has 73 similar races
* WROOD is a 4yo filly with 5 runs
* Fillies aged 4 with under 13 runs were 2-22
* One was a seasonal debutant from a Group race
* The other had an 9 day absence
* WROOD absent 57 days is like neither
* I looked at horses aged 6 or more
* When racing with a 59 + day absence they are 0-42
* ANSAAB fails this
* FAITHFUL MOUNT also fails this
* SENSIBLE WAY makes limited appeal
* GOLD TRAIL clearly looks a big runner
* My problem with him is just one run since July
* I looked at 4 year olds with 1 run in several months
* There was only one winner and he had 4 runs
* GOLD TRAIL has 8 and it's a nagging doubt for me

Shortlist

SPIRITUAL STAR a 6yo with some worries
He faces a step up in trip and an absence
I can find 1 winner like him
However Ben Hanbury trained that winner
That shows how long ago that was

KINGS BAYONET is 8 absent 38 days
Not a natural type of bet I'd go for
I can find a winner like him though

WILLIE WAG TAIL is an unexposed 6yo
Look at similar 6 year olds absent 30-40 days
They have a 2-5 record
Look at those that dropped in trip
They have a W W record in similar races
Nice Style won this race in 2011 with this profile

Selection

WILLIE WAG TAIL 7/2

Each Way



W a r w i c k 2.25

3/1 Closing Ceremony, 5/1 Handazan
6/1 Phoenix Returns, 7/1 Awaywiththegreys
7/1 Big Hands Harry, 7/1 Top Wood, 12/1 An Poc Ar Buile
14/1 Dawn Twister, 14/1 Minella On Line
16/1 Join The Clan, 25/1 Vandross.

This is a quality 3m 2f Handicap Hurdle
There are only 7 races like it in January
That doesn't allow us to do much statistically
Surely Stamina has to be a serious issue
I ran some breeding stats
Looking at Sires that bred winners over 3m2f +
To my surprise only 4 of these sires had done that
HANDAZAN for example is by Nayef
He has yet to breed a winner beyond 3m yet
PHOENIX RETURNS is by Phoenix Reach
He's bred only 1 winner beyond 2m 5f
BIG HANDS HARRY is by Multiplex
He's bred just 1 winner beyond 2m 6f
That was over 3m on good ground
AWAYWITHTHEGREYS is by Whipper
He's never bred a winner beyond 3m

Only 4 horses have passed my Sire tests
You can argue a 5th horse is a Neutral
That would be TOP WOOD
His breeding stats were inconclusive
The other horses that pass these tests are these

CLOSING CEREMONY
MINELLA ON LINE
DAWN TWISTER
JOIN THE CLAN

If I then apply breeding statistics that include
the fact it's soft ground and a Class 2 race it
is then that we can drop DAWN TWISTER so
I am going to as he has just 1 run this season.

The 7 similar races do throw something up
All 7 winners were aged 6 or 7
Horses aged 8 or more were 0-31
TOP WOOD fails this
AWAYWITHTHEGREYS fails this
VANDROSS is 5 and none of those won

None of the 7 winners came from Class 2 or higher
PHOENIX RETURNS fails this
AN POC AR BUILE fails this
AWAYWITHTHEGREYS fails this

Shortlist

MINELLA ON LINE - Passes my breeding stats
Not keen he pulled up over fences recently
Wasn't sold on his profile. Should at least stay

JOIN THE CLAN - Can't be ruled out

CLOSING CEREMONY has an excellent profile
6 year olds winning last time were 3-6

Selection

CLOSING CEREMONY 6/1 Win Bet half stakes

JOIN THE CLAN 14/1 Each Way half stakes





K e m p t o n 2.40

9/2 Hello George, 9/2 Tea For Two
11/2 Hammersly Lake, 11/2 Warrantor, 8/1 Dell´ Arca
8/1 Kilcooley, 10/1 Heath Hunter, 10/1 Saffron Wells
20/1 Ballybough Pat, 20/1 Foxcub, 20/1 Shotavodka
25/1 Little Boy Boru, 25/1 Sporting Boy.

* The Lanzarote is a handicap hurdle over 2m 5f
* Only 7 past renewals of this race
* There are only 14 similar handicap hurdles in January
* Too small a sample size
* Not a race to spend much time on given

* Horses running within 2 weeks are 0-23
* SAFFRON WELLS fails this
* BALLYBOUGH PAT is absent too long
* The high weights have struggled in the past
* I don't see KILCOOLEY defying that weight or rating
* FOXCUB is too exposed over hurdles
* SPORTING BOY is too exposed over hurdles
* LITTLE BOY BORU has too many runs for comfort
* HEATH HUNTER - I wanted more runs this year
* SHOTAVODKA - Not keen hammered over further
* DELL´ ARCA - Not keen hammered over further

* There were 3 winners that came from 2m races
* They were all 6 olds
* Two came from a Listed/Graded Handicap Hurdle
* They were both beaten last time out
* The other was also 6
* She was a mare from a novice hurdle with 3 runs

* HAMMERSLY LAKE - More of a place chance
* HELLO GEORGE - Nice enough profile
* I'd have liked more runs from a 2m race
* TEA FOR TWO - Not a perfect match but acceptable
* WARRANTOR - Acceptable but I'd like more runs

Nothing really grabs me statistically. Only done this
race as it is one of the days big races. I am going to
resort to a split stake bet to increase my chances.

Selection

HELLO GEORGE 5/1 Win Bet
WARRANTOR 5/4 Place Bet



W a r w i c k 3.00

5/4 Shantou Bob, 5/1 Three Musketeers
7/1 Alisier D´irlande, 7/1 Ballagh, 9/1 Anteros
10/1 Red Tortue, 12/1 Flintham, 20/1 Rons Dream.

* This is a Grade 2 hurdle over 2m 5f
* Warwick has 10 past renewals
* I'm against horses with 1 hurdle run
* They are 0-15 in this race
* BALLAGH fails this
* ALISIER D´IRLANDE fails this
* THREE MUSKETEERS fails this

* FLINTHAM could go well
* I like his fitness and experience
* I can see him grabbing a place

* I don't want to oppose SHANTOU BOB
* Dominant on the Numbers and Ratings

Selection

SHANTOU BOB 11/10 Win Bet
FLINTHAM 12/1 Saver

(Flintham could be a Place Saver around 2/1)





L i n g f i e l d 3.10

7/4 Turning Times, 9/4 Chicago Bere
7/2 Royal Albert Hall, 6/1 Thanksgiving Day
14/1 Gleneely Girl.

* This is a 3yo handicap over a Mile
* January has 67 of these 3yo handicaps
* All 67 winners ran within the past 91 days
* Those absent longer than 91 days were 0-32
* TURNING TIMES fails that absent 136 days
* She is a filly and has just 3 career starts

* I looked at every 3yo handicap in January
* Thats every handicap at any distance in Class 3-4-5
* Fillies that had under 4 career starts were 8-102
* All 8 of these winning fillies ran within 6 weeks
* Those absent longer like TURNING TIMES are 0-29
* TURNING TIMES fails that in an unsafe profile
* GLENEELY GIRL didn't do enough last time
* ROYAL ALBERT HALL comes from an 8f maiden
* Horses that won maidens last time are sublime
* They have a 10-16 record but he managed just 3rd
* Horses beaten in 8f maidens were 0-13
* That means he is not like a winner
* Thats a shame. Had he won last time I'd be on him

Shortlist

* THANKSGIVING DAY comes from an 8f handicap
* His profile has positives and negatives
* Would have been better if winning last time

* CHICAGO BERE won a 7f handicap last time
* There were 4 winners that did that
* They had 14 10 7 career runs
* They had 10 9 6 days absences
* CHICAGO BERE has 8 career runs
* He has 13 days absence
* Judgement call but he must be a positive

Selection

CHICAGO BERE 3/1 Win Bet




K e m p t o n 3.15

3/1 Open Hearted, 9/2 Masters Hill, 11/2 Al Alfa
11/2 Chartreux, 13/2 Midnight Appeal
8/1 Ardkilly Witness, 8/1 Howard´s Legacy
12/1 Via Sundown, 25/1 Mart Lane.

This is a 3m handicap Chase.
Good quality race and 74 similar races

I don't normally do this race but I wanted to have
a quick look this year as OPEN HEARTED seems
the wrong type to me. Looking at all similar races
it leaves me cold that he comes from short of 18f
and up to 24f with just one race this year. That is
not a good profile. I am against MART LANE with
the Welsh National run too soon. VIA SUNDOWN
has a heavy defeat to overcome in the last month.
I looked at all horses that managed that as it was
the 9 and 10 year olds that could do it and those
like VIA SUNDOWN aged 6-7-8 failed and I think
he's best avoided. AL ALFA just won over 2m 5f
last time. I looked at horses that won these races
doing that and found 3 winners who did it. They
had 5 4 1 Chase starts. AL ALFA has 15 and my
view was he could be too exposed to deliver a
second career best in a row. Not on my shortlist.

Shortlist

HOWARD´S LEGACY - Heavy recent defeat
Stats show 9 year olds do overcome that
I can not rule him out but not first choice

ARDKILLY WITNESS - Heavy recent defeat
Stats show 9 year olds do overcome that
Has a chance despite not doing much lately

CHARTREUX - 10yo with long absence and topweight
I wanted to oppose him. My angles say no
Last year a 12yo won with an absence and topweight
I ran his profile carefully. Nothing to stop him winning
Not keen on the trainer or the handicap mark

MASTERS HILL is W PU PU PU 2 over fences
These runs were spread out over three seasons
I think he is a player. His profile is hard to read
He was made favourite first time out at Haydock
That was a better race than this was
First time out there his defeat is forgivable
Ran well last time. He does look well treated

MIDNIGHT APPEAL - One of the safer profiles
He is shaping well and has solid track form
He hates huge fields and this race should suit
Look at his Chase runs in fields of 13 or less
When running outside Graded Class
W 9 W 3 W W 2 2 W W 4 2 3
I prefer him from the 5 I have shortlisted

Selection

MIDNIGHT APPEAL 6/1

Each Way




W a r w i c k 3.35

5/1 Return Spring, 7/1 Carruthers, 7/1 Shotgun Paddy
10/1 Rigadin De Beauchene 11/1 West End Rocker
12/1 Benbane Head 12/1 Hawkes Point, 12/1 Sixty Something
12/1 Theatrical Star, 16/1 Ballyoliver
20/1 Cadeau George, 20/1 Peckhamech
20/1 Tales Of Milan, 25/1 Dark Glacier

* The Classic Chase is a 3m 5f Handicap Chase
* It is a Grade 3 race for horses rated 0-147

* I looked at 19 similar handicap chases in January
* Those over 3m 4f or more in Class 2 or higher

I like to start with some quick Breeding Stats
I looked at every sire in the race
Those that bred winners over 3m 5f +
When it was soft/heavy in Graded Class
There are just 5 horses that pass this test

Shotgun Paddy 8/1
Rigadin De Beauchene 11/1
West End Rocker 14/1
Dark Glacier 40/1
Tales Of Milan 25/1


* Look at the 19 winners of all similar races
* The most exposed Chaser had 17 Chase runs
* Horses with 18 or more chase runs were 0-50

* RETURN SPRING has only 3 Chase runs
* It's complicated with horses with under 4 Chase runs
* In all similar races in January they have a 1-16 record
* That winner came from a Graded Chase
* That was last years winner of this race Shotgun Paddy
* If I look at horses from Non Graded Chases with 3 runs
* Then there is a 0-11 record with these horses
* I Looked at all similar races in December
* None of the winners had under 4 Chase runs
* I did find one that won in February (Frantic Tan)
* Overall though these horses underperformed
* I can no longer say they don't win
* I think he is shortlistable bearing in mind other profiles

In the distant past I did some research in this race
that showed horses from the Welsh National were
dreadful. The race comes too soon for them. This
statistic has failed just once in 2012 when a winner
came from that race. However that horse didn't get
round in the Welsh National and didn't have a hard
race there. I would be wary of horses coming here
after hard races 2 weeks ago in the Welsh National.

* HAWKES POINT pulled up in the Welsh National
* He did that with 2 fences to go after a hard race
* It worries me coming back so quickly
* DARK GLACIER also pulled up in the same race
* I couldn't have him after that
* He also has too many Chase starts
* All 50 horses with 18 + Chase runs were beaten
* BENBANE HEAD won last time out
* There were 6 horses that won last time
* Those that won again were all quite lightly raced
* They had 8 8 9 5 4 5 Chase starts
* BENBANE HEAD doesn't fit that pattern
* He is 11 years old and has 16 Chase runs
* There are 19 similar races in January
* Horses aged 11 or more have a weak 1-55 record
* Those like BENBANE HEAD aged 11 were 1-33
* He has never won off this handicap mark before
* His Sire hasn't bred a winner beyond 3m 2f yet
* BENBANE HEAD has too many doubts for me

* I want to look at horses aged 12 or more
* We know Horses aged 11 or more are 1-55 record
* None were aged 12 or more
* The following Statistic looks very interesting

* JANUARY and FEBUARY
* Handicap Chases over 3m 3f and More
* Racing in Class 3 of higher
* Horses aged 12 or more are just 1-117
* The only winner was in 2001 (Flaked Oats)
* He was very lucky to win that day
* A Martin Pipe horse was about to win but fell late
* Had that not happened it would be a 0-117 record
* You don't want to be on 12 year olds statistically

* WEST END ROCKER is 13 years old
* He fails that 1-117 statistic
* WEST END ROCKER also has just 1 run this year
* Past winners had 3 3 3 1 2 3 2 6 2 4 runs that season
* Almost every other horse has more runs
* I can't entertain a 13yo with 1 run this year
* He also has too many Chase starts
* All 50 horses with 18 + Chase runs were beaten
* CARRUTHERS is a 12 year old
* He fails that 1-117 statistic as well
* CARRUTHERS also fails another statistic too
* January Handicap Chases over 3m 3f and More
* Racing in Class 3 of higher
* I looked at horses that came from 3m 4f or more
* Those aged 11 or more doing this were 0-64
* Horse of any age doing it with 17 + Chase runs are 0-74
* CARRUTHERS fails that statistic
* He also has too many Chase starts
* All 50 horses with 18 + Chase runs were beaten
* He has been well beaten on all 3 starts this year
* He simply doesn't have a winning profile

* BALLYOLIVER is 11 year old
* Horses aged 11 or more have a weak 1-55 record
* January Handicap Chases over 3m 3f and More
* Racing in Class 3 of higher
* I looked at horses that were aged 11
* There was a 3-74 record
* They had absences of 5 42 27 days
* BALLYOLIVER has 57 days off the track
* None of them pulled up last time either
* D'Argent did win this in 2008 aged 11 absent 42 days
* He had 16 Chase runs far less than BALLYOLIVER
* BALLYOLIVER is also 0-7 racing above Class 3
* He faces a career high mark in a much higher grade
* There are definite concerns about his profile
* He also has too many Chase starts
* All 50 horses with 18 + Chase runs were beaten

* CADEAU GEORGE was beaten 50 lengths 9 days ago
* Hardly an inspiring profile and he is the wrong age
* No horses won aged 6 like him
* Handicap Chases in January
* 3m 1f or more in Class 3 or higher
* Horses aged 6 have a 0-18 record in these races
* That suggests you don't want a 6 year old
* Certainly not with 3 Chase runs and a heavy defeat

* PECKHAMECHO has stamina issues
* Horses like him by Beneficial rarely stay this far
* Ignoring Hunters and Cross Country races
* The Sires runners at 3m 4f and more are 1-82
* He has not taken to Chasing very well
* Fell on his last Chase and was sent back hurdling
* He hasn't ran in a Chase over 21 months now
* You can argue he is very well handicapped
* Not enough positives for him given stamina issues

* SHOTGUN PADDY is hard to read
* I'm ignoring he comes from the Welsh National
* He pulled up before the 7th fence after a mistake
* He did not have a hard race there
* Makes me wonder if he is fit enough though
* He was tailed off on his seasonal debut over hurdles
* He only jumped 6 fences at Chepstow last time
* Far from convinced that is a fit profile
* Especially when you consider he has topweight
* SHOTGUN PADDY did win this last year
* He was in a better place as an improver last year
* After winning he went straight to Cheltenham
* He was 2nd in the 4 miler at last years festival
* That gruelling race takes some getting over
* No evidence as yet he has recovered from that
* Not a stable I like to rely on much either

* THEATRICAL STAR will need a career best
* He has never won off his current rating
* THEATRICAL STAR is also 0-13 in Class 2 or higher
* He has never finished 1st or 2nd in these 13 races
* He is far from certain to stay this far
* Horses by King's Theatre over 3m 4f +
* This sire has 6 winners over this far
* 3 came in Hunter Chases or Cross Country races
* Those that raced in Listed/Graded races are 0-21
* King's Theatre has bred Many Listed /Graded winners
* Those that ran over 3m 2f or more were 0-32
* You wonder if he wants a field as big as this
* He has a 6-14 record in fields of 10 or fewer
* This is his record in fields of 11 or more
* 6 6 4 3 5 3 3 PU PU 12 9 UR 5 UR
* Not keen on his stamina, class or the big field
* He also has too many Chase starts
* All 50 horses with 18 + Chase runs were beaten
* THEATRICAL STAR is not my choice

Shortlist


* RETURN SPRING makes it on the shortlist
* Not the safest of profiles with 3 Chase starts
* Technically he is not an identical match to a winner
* There was a winner in February winning like him
* He could easily have been my saver

* SIXTY SOMETHING won a weaker race easily last time
* There were 6 horses that won last time
* Those that won again were all quite lightly raced
* They had 8 8 9 5 4 5 Chase starts
* SIXTY SOMETHING fits that nicely with 9 Chase runs
* I have to shortlist him on that profile
* I have two problems with him to wrestle with
* I can name 100 stables straight away I'd rather rely on
* The other problem is his Sire Dom Alco
* He has sired a Grand National winner
* Many would not consider any stamina limitations
* However I ran the following breeding stat
* Horses by Dom Alco
* Running over 3m 3f or more
* Running in Class 3 or higher
* Running on Soft or Heavy ground
* Horses by Dom Alco under these conditions were 0-23
* Tells me I should not assume automatically he will stay

* TALES OF MILAN has 16 Chase runs
* That's in the acceptable range
* Troubling he was beaten 24 lengths 2 weeks ago
* None of the winners had such a heavy recent defeat
* I did make him a negative last time though
* He didn't appreciate the track and was statistically weak
* He has a career high mark and a career high grade
* It's his lack of backclass that worries me
* Most past winners had more backclass than him
* This may just be beyond him
* That said 25/1 is a ridiculous price
* He is fit and has a light weight
* He sails though my breeding stats as well

* RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE is a seasonal debutant
* I looked at seasonal debutants
* There was a 1-11 record the winner Choisty in 2000
* That horse won this race at Warwick
* There were only 9 runners and he had 10st weight
* RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE faces more and has 11st 8lbs
* He won this in 2013 but has 3 warm up runs and 10st 3lbs
* That clearly gives him a lot to prove
* Do not rule him out though
* Seasonal debutants do well in this race
* They win it in 2000 and had 3 seconds and a 4th
* Thats all from just 11 horses that tried
* RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE also sails my breeding stats
* I looked at Sires runners over 3m 5f and more
* When soft or heavy in Graded Class
* His sire came back with a W W record from 2 that tried
* RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE goes well after a break
* I think he has a massive chance
* Just the weight first time out that undermines it
* My Breeding Stats say Yes
* My profile Stats say No
* They do argue he has a place chance
* I can see him getting placed here

Selection

RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE 10/1 Each Way

TALES OF MILAN 22/1 Each Way


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