0 Account Bet
2 Selections
0 Profile & Preview bets
6 Races Discussed


The Grand National is over for another year
and the Circus has left town. Full review and
post mortem later in the message. Despite a
failed attempt to land the big one results are
really good and we can now settle down with
no distractions and go back onto the account.

I like this message a lot. I'm feeling unusually
macho today rather than my normal timid self
so it will be interesting to see how we get on.



Today's 2 Selections


Leopardstown 3.15

STORMFLY 9/2

Each Way

5/1 Ladbrokes Bet365
9/2 Hills Tote Betfred Spbet VC Stan J


Tramore 3.30

ESHTIAAL 7/4

Win Bet





P r o f i l e & P r e v i e w B e t s


No Profile and Preview Bets

Just the 2 selections
I bet that has shocked you

I did have 3 possible bets today

This was the 3rd

Leopardstown 2.40

PARISH HALL 100/30 - 7/2

I was thinking about staking this horse as an
each way bet but a non runner has killed that
option now. That's a shame as he would have
been the safest bet of the three horses.

I like STORMFLY

I feel she has advantages
She needs them as others are rated higher
I will be disappointed if 3 horses beat her

ESHTIAAL should win if he finds his backbone
In this class it his best chance in a very long time




Ffos Las

Very dangerous track. Almost worth boycotting
given how bad the ground is. I have 1 mention
with a W W profile but silly to stake big here.

Market Rasen

True to form a garbage card again as ever here
and my 1 selection is one of the least interesting.

Tramore

Two Previews. Two Confident bets.

Leopardstown

Two interesting Previews. Both bets backable

As ever Irish Racing offers the quality yet again.





R e c e n t F o r m

Since Cheltenham the record of bets have
been impressive and we are in superb form.

I decided to do this Macho piece just to tell
newcomers how best to survive in the service.

Profile & Preview WON 4/1
Profile & Preview Lost 20/1
Profile & Preview Lost 40/1
Profile & Preview Placed 7/2
Profile & Preview WON 4/1
Profile & Preview Lost 7/2
Selection WON 5/4
Selection WON 4/7
Profile & Preview Lost 5/1
Profile & Preview Lost 11/4
Profile & Preview Lost 7/2
Profile & Preview Placed 4/1
Profile & Preview WON 10/11
Profile & Preview WON 7/2
Profile & Preview Lost 6/1
Profile & Preview Placed 91
Profile & Preview WON 8/1
Profile & Preview Lost 6/1
Profile & Preview WON 4/1
Profile & Preview WON 11/4
Profile & Preview WON 7/4

21 Bets since Cheltenham

10 winners
3 losers
8 losers

Profit to a £1 Stake

Approximately + £27


This record is outstanding
Obviously it is almost all Profile & Preview
Some of you I can hear saying.....
I only bet the Selections/Account Bets

I have said before what you can and can not trust
Do not trust the choice of account I use
Do not trust my Staking most of the time
Most of the time I have no idea if my bet will win
Trust in the fact that does not matter at all
Trust the Top of the message
Trust the best bets in the message
Trust the analysis and the integrity of the work

What is sometimes not considered by some
Is that to achieve a record like the above
I have to place myself in the right position mentally
I have to get my timing right and handle the pressure
Do not read that as a sign of weakness
It is a sign of great strength and experience
It only sounds weak because of it's transparency

I wanted to remind people about this record
My advice is don't have staking plans
Don't have betting banks in this service
My style of betting doesn't require one
Just trust in the work and worry not about losers
These are not bets plucked from nowhere
There will be mistakes and losers as ever
Overall the profit will be there
It is because it is based on a winning approach

Unusually very Macho for me but sometimes this
has to be said to help some understand how best
to survive in the service and how to appreciate it.






S a t u r d a y s S u m m a r y

We finally got an answer to the Grand National
question we invested so much time, hope and
not to mention lots of money in and the answer
was not what we wanted to here. I didn't fancy
the winner and I don't think the trainer did but
he was just about the Class horse in the race.

He was topweight bar one. His form was sheer
class and 6th in the Gold Cup last time whilst a
bit disappointing was still good enough to find
Silviniaco Conti and other Grade 1 Chaser just
behind him. The answer to the puzzle was stay
with the Class horse. Our bets both finished in
9th and 16th. FIRST LIEUTENANT was simply a
shadow of his former self and he lobbed about
safely at the back. SOLL ran a great race which
gave us a lot of hope but either didn't stay the
trip or didn't have enough class. This was one
painful experience. The anticipation was quite
thrilling but no payback sucked the enjoyment
away. The Dossier experiment failed although
you could say the Top rated horse fell early in
the race but this really is straw clutching now.

It was otherwise a very professional message.
It went W P L P W P L P L. Aside from both the
Grand National bets the other Profile/Preview
bets did well. WHISPER won nicely which gave
us a good boost and TILSTARR placed second
getting most of the stakes back. It was a quality
message outside the National. Sadly though by
it's very nature that was only show in town.







P r o f i l e s a n d P r e v i e w s



F f o s L a s 2.00

5/2 April Dusk, 3/1 Aldborough, 3/1 Space Walker
7/1 Summer Sounds, 10/1 Canicallyouback
12/1 Clancy´s Cross, 14/1 Broadway Blueshirt
20/1 Tuffstuff, 33/1 Driftashore, 100/1 Fanny Fantastic.

This is a 2m 4f Maiden Hurdle
April has 76 of these races

SPACE WALKER is 4 and from a 2m hurdle
If I look at 4yo's from hurdle races
I find an underperforming 1-44 record
That winner didn't come from a 2m race
4 year olds from 2m hurdles were 0-20
SPACE WALKER is opposed

APRIL DUSK unseated his rider last time
Horses aged 6 or more
Failing to complete on their last outing
Under 3 career hurdle starts
Horses with this profile were 0-59
APRIL DUSK doesn't offer enough

CANICALLYOUBACK is 7 years old
Last seen in a Bumper 188 days ago
Horses from Bumpers were 5-140
Those absent 3 + months were 0-46
Those aged 7 or more were 0-25
CANICALLYOUBACK fails both those angles

SUMMER SOUNDS - Neutral profile

ALDBOROUGH is a 5 year old
He comes from a 2m maiden hurdle
He has 1 hurdle run and no Bumper form
Horses with this profile are W W
These horses were Underwriter and Horseford Hill
ALDBOROUGH has the best profile (2-2)

Selection

ALDBOROUGH 11/4

Low Stakes

The track is unraceable at the best of times




L e o p a r d s t o w n 2.40

11/4 Jamaica, 3/1 Zawraq, 7/2 Parish Boy
9/2 Endless Drama, 7/1 Mohaayed,
16/1 Mandamus, 66/1 Mesmerism.

* This is a mile race for 2 year olds
* It is a 2,000 Guineas Trial
* I am opposing ZAWRAQ for 2 reasons
* I am opposing ENDLESS DRAMA for 1 reason

* Look at the past winners of this race
* They had the following previous races since 1996
* 3 2 5 3 2 2 3 3 5 4 2 2 3 3 2 2 3 5 4
* This horse has never gone to a once raced horse

* ENDLESS DRAMA fails this with 1 career start
* ZAWRAQ also fails this with 1 career start
* I have one other problem with him
* ZAWRAQ has a horrible draw in Stall 1
* Since 2011 there were 74 races here with 7 + runners
* Horses drawn 1 had a 1-70 record in them
* It is not a good draw

JAMAICA was a potential bet in the race
Aidan O'Brien has a poor 1-19 record in this race
The only winner was when he had 2 in a 4 runner race
Had lots of disappointing results in this race
Every chance many of them have needed the run

PARISH BOY looks the best each way

Selection

PARISH BOY 3/1

Each Way





M a r k e t R a s e n 2.45

10/11 Hassle, 5/2 Quebec, 5/1 Camachoice
10/1 Countersign, 16/1 Coozan George
16/1 Larmor, 25/1 Lochalsh.

This is a 2m 1f Novice Hurdle
The main issue is will the favourite perform
My gut feeling is HASSLE should be too good for these
He has been disappointing and he is not bombproof
He is clearly the best horse in the race though
No doubt had some problems and is a bit tricky
Good ground will be important to him
CAMACHOICE may not even get the distance
QUEBEC is respected and could capitalise if Hassle flops
I just think HASSLE should be too classy for him
Deserves one more chance to show it

Selection

HASSLE 4/5 +

Win Bet




L e o p a r d s t o w n 3.15

4/1 Calypso Beat 4/1 Stroll Patrol
4/1 Legatissimo, 5/1 Stormfly, 8/1 Steip Amach,
14/1 Military Angel, 20/1 Red Ivy
25/1 Devonshire.

This is a trial for the 1000 Guineas
I didn't want to use any standard statistics in this race
I am going to use some analysis I read about 2 years ago
It involves the relationship between two races
This race and the Weld Park Stakes last year
I can sum this up by listing past winners record

2014 No runners had raced in the Weld Park as a 2yo
2013 winner was Placed 2nd in the Weld Park as a 2yo
2012 winner was Placed 2nd in the Weld Park as a 2yo
2011 2nd was Placed 2nd in the Weld Park as a 2yo
2010 winner was Placed 1st in the Weld Park as a 2yo
2009 third was Placed 2nd in the Weld Park as a 2yo
2008 winner was Placed 4th in the Weld Park as a 2yo
2006 winner was Placed 3rd in the Weld Park as a 2yo
2007 winner was Placed 1st in the Weld Park as a 2yo
2005 winner was Placed 3rd in the Weld Park as a 2yo
2004 third was Placed 2nd in the Weld Park as a 2yo

This leads me to isolate the horses
that managed to finish 1-2-3-4 in last years Weld Stakes

QUALITY does this but is now a Non Runner

STORMFLY does this as well

He is therefore the selection

8 runners must run
If they do the this could be selection material
He is out and has had a run
Yes it was a handicap but a good one and he won it

CALYPSO BEAT may need the run trained by Kevin Ryan
He has said she is backward in her coat
MILITARY ANGEL only has 1 career start
Past winners had 2 4 12 3 5 2 5 2 4 2 runs
She looks inexperienced to me
We can beat her with a recent run

STEIP AMACH has raced this year
Achieved nowhere near as much as Stormfly

STROLL PATROL worries me
Maybe should be a saver
She has upgraded stables this year
J P Murtagh is 0-19 this year on the flat

LEGATISSIMO is respected
Her trainers seasonal debutants are 0-11 this year


Selection

STORMFLY 4/1

Each Way




T r a m o r e 3.30

9/4 Eshtiaal, 11/4 The Mad Well, 3/1 Indian Fairy,
9/2 Mick The Boyo, 7/1 Cappacurry Zak
9/1 Point The Toes, 25/1 Muine Bheag.

This is a 2m 5f Handicap Hurdle
Despite a lack of intimacy with some of these runners
ESHTIAAL just stands out a mile to me
Had some quality flat form as a 3 year old rated mid 90's
Had a miserable 4yo Flat campaign not unexpected
He was badly handicapped and not in a stable I respect
ESHTIAAL does have a lot of raw ability
He was sent hurdling to Gordon Elliot
I see that as a big upgrade in stable
Elliot has taken 7 runs to learn about him
His last 2 runs suggest he has now got him right
He ran as a reserve at Wexford 2 days ago
His opponents had the following ratings
113 109 116 112 106 103 100 116 114 119 114 198 103 111 120
Today they are rated much lower
108 108 104 95 83

If I look at all handicap hurdles in April
Any distance any class
Horses that ran 1-2 days beforehand
Under 8 years of age
Beaten under 20 lengths in that race
There was a W 2 W 2 W 2 record from 6 runners
One of these horse won this race last year
The only 5yo like ESHTIAAL to try it won

ESHTIAAL has 6 opponents
Most of these lack recent runs
Any could win if he fails to deliver
I think he should though in this class
Especially with a very recent run

Selection

ESHTIAAL 7/4

Win Bet





T r a m o r e 4.00

8/11 Urano, 3/1 Draycott Place
4/1 Rocky Wednesday, 25/1 Vic Approach.

This is a 2m 6f Chase
URANO looks the best horse
I think he is completely different class
I just see him having a healthy advantage

My reading of his form
And of his breeding statistics
Is that URANO doesn't stay 3 miles
The sire's only winner beyond 2m 6f was in a Class G
If you assume URANO doesn't get 3m
It excuses him 3 of his last 4 races
He won over fences at Cork very easily
URANO was beaten 23 lengths last time in a Group 2
That was over 3 miles and he may not have stayed
The winner is a Cheltenham festival winner
The 3rd horse has just won the Irish Grand National
URANO was 4th and started the same price as him
Down dramatically in class today
This shorter trip is what he wants
I think URANO will win
Whether you feel 4/6 is worth the risk is the issue

Selection

URANO 4/6

Win Bet

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