0 Account Bet
0 Selection
0 Profile & Preview bet
0 Negative
5 Races Discussed

Five previews today. Still plenty of soft ground
out there. Not covering Ayr today and probably
wont do tomorrow. The main impression I have
about today's message is a lack of magic. It's all
just a bit bland rather than brave and it has not
excited me. There's no point pretending this is
anything other than ordinary. This doesn't have
to mean results won't be positive today though.

I shall leave a bet today.
I haven't performed well enough to risk one
Tomorrow will be an all out assault for a bet




T o d a y ' s M e s s a g e

All 5 previews seem similar in strength
Starts with a short priced bet that I would not stake

I like the Newbury 2.10 and 2.45 races
The trouble here is 11/4 and 100/30 horses each way
I don't want to mess around with each way bets like that

I have a split stake bet in the Listowel 4.55
My main bet there has been shaved from 9/2 to 7/2
It doesn't look strong enough for the account

Hexham 5.05

French Seventyfive 4/1 Win
Forestside 6/1 Saver

There is a horrible frame to this Handicap Chase
but I thought we had a good chance here. I don't
think many can win this. I shan't stake this bet as
French Seventyfive has no chase form of note so
I am relying on a stable upgrade and his fitness to
get him home. Its probably best left to small stakes.




D a i l y N e g a t i v e s

No Negative Today

Results of Negatives

20 correct bets from 24






W e d n e s d a y s S u m m a r y

Three previews yesterday with only two offering
potential bets and I was disappointed that all we
got back was a placed bet each way. I was hoping
for better than that from the 3 year olds I liked so
a little setback much as they were only mentions.

Something about Pontefract that does not seem
to treat me or my analysis well. I had to slow it up
a bit yesterday as I felt I wasn't working as quickly
as I had been earlier in the week and I'm not that
surprised we had a dud message much as I liked
those 3yo's and could easily have staked them.



P r o f i l e & P r e v i e w s



N e w t o n A b b o t 1.50

8/11 Bantam, 11/4 Precision Five, 7/1 Dry Ol´party
12/1 Bahri Sugar, 20/1 Starlight Sonata, 33/1 Heartening
33/1 Midnight Gypsy, 33/1 Palmaria, 50/1 Miss Lucarno
66/1 Beauchamp Bella, 100/1 Dont Call Me Doris
100/1 Highridge Princess, 100/1 Pennant Lady, 100/1 Tambalong.

This is a mares novice hurdle
Sounds unbelievable but only 7 similar races in September
Many mares maiden hurdles but so few are Novice races

August September October
There are 40 of these races
Thats over any distance during these 3 months

If You look at horses without any hurdling form
Those aged 6 or more had a weak 3-73 record
None of the 3 winners had ran on the flat before

PRECISION FIVE has done that
If we take horses aged 6 or more
That raced on the flat
None have won any of these races without 4 + hurdle runs
PRECISION FIVE is a hurdling debutant
She is not like any winner and not for me

BAHRI SUGAR has a very weak profile
You don't want horses her age from bumpers with absences

DRY OL´PARTY has 8 career starts
4 over hurdles 4 in bumpers
None have yet broke a Racing Post Rating of 100

BANTAM comes here off a 126 R.P.Rating
He has achieved higher in the past
He should be winning this on the numbers

Selection

BANTAM 11/10

Win Bet



N e w b u r y 2.10

9/4 Operative, 11/4 Fighting Temeraire
5/1 Christchurch 5/1 Swilly Sunset, 8/1 Bedrock
20/1 Loaded 25/1 Arizona Sunrise, 25/1 Desert Cross
33/1 Sweet Dream Lady.

This is 2yo maiden over 6f

OPERATIVE has 5 runs and hasn't won yet
Some September maidens are won by similar types
None though were on Grade 1 tracks like Newbury
You can't expect to Rock up on a Grade 1 track
Having been beaten in all 5 previous runs
And not expect to meet anything better than you
None like him have won on a Grade 1 track in September
Not since 2004 much as not many tried
I am looking elsewhere

BEDROCK looks unsafe on breeding
His sire's 2yo's are just 1-38 over 6f + on softer ground
I don't see him getting home against experienced horses
I don't see LOADED winning first time
CHRISTCHURCH was a negative on his debut
I thought he ran a very good race in defeat
I fancied him each way at 5/1 on his second start
He scraped a place that day finishing late and fast
Far from convinced he wants this drop from 7f to 6f
I wonder if he is here for a handicap mark
SWILLY SUNSET has excuses on her debut
She has significant improvement to find though

FIGHTING TEMERAIRE looks the safest profile
He is one horse I can not criticise
His debut run was in a Racing Post Rating of 79
That beats 4 of the numbers OPERATIVE has
With natural improvement he my improve past him
With 9 runners it is hard to see 3 beat him

Selection

FIGHTING TEMERAIRE 5/2-11/4

Each Way





N e w b u r y 2.45

11/4 Satellite, 9/2 Keep In Line, 5/1 Priors Brook
6/1 Perrault, 8/1 Oceane, 14/1 Prescience
16/1 Sweet Dream, 25/1 Swing Easy.

This is a trappy 12f handicap
This should involve 5 of the 8 runners

I could not go with PERRAULT
Not with 3 runs and unsafe on breeding angles
His sire hasn't bred a 12f winner on softer than good

Not convinced OCEANE will stay this far
Not when combined with a 69 day absence
PRIORS BROOK won last time but 89 days ago
No 4yo won last time and followed up absent so long

SATELLITE is also 4 and won last time
His profile is very complicated with 34 days off
I would not see him as a negative or a positive
He could easily win but he isn't like a winner

KEEP IN LINE each way could be the right bet
His profile is fine and he was very unlucky last time
His jockey gave him a bad ride last time
He will appreciate the non runners and smaller field

Selection

KEEP IN LINE 100/30

Each Way





L i s t o w e l 4.55

5/2 Devils Bride, 3/1 Texas Jack, 7/2 Lord Ben
9/2 Letter Of Credit, 9/2 Spring Heeled, 66/1 Toomdeely.

This is 2m 4f Chase for horses rated 150 or less
There are only 5 serious contenders
Two of these look badly out of sorts

SPRING HEELED won the Kim Muir at Cheltenham 2014
Hasn't been fit or right in the 18 months since
He has raced just once since last years National
What ability he has is unlikely to be used here
He just does not seem a horse likely to win right now
LORD BEN gives me a similar feel
Just 1 dismal run since September 2014
As an exposed 10yo I would want more runs
These two seem likely to lack form and fitness
TEXAS JACK has ran two poor races in a row
I appreciate he was hampered last time
But he is a long way from being at his best
My view was that he will probably need more runs

I think two horses stand out
LETTER OF CREDIT and DEVILS BRIDE
Both ran 9 days ago with credit in different races
I think they have the most momentum and fitness

Selection

Staked to £10

£6 Win LETTER OF CREDIT 7/2

£4 Win DEVILS BRIDE 2/1



H e x h a m 5.05

100/30 Brother Scott, 5/1 Alba King, 5/1 Forestside
5/1 Local Present, 11/2 French Seventyfive
8/1 Areuwitmenow.

This is a 2m 4f handicap Chase
Only 6 runners for horses rated 0-92

LOCAL PRESENT is a 12yo
All winners his age had more recent runs
He has 1 run since 2014 and may need more

AREUWITMENOW is 10 and absent 576 days
Horses aged 10 or more all ran within 176 days
He is absent 400 more days than any his age
Might win but that absence is a big worry

BROTHER SCOTT would win this on 2014 form
His recent form in a little worrying
His last two races were dreadful
If I look at horses from 3m or more
That run in the previous 50 days
Those beaten 20 or more lengths last time were 0-36
BROTHER SCOTT fails this 0-36 record
That's why I won't forgive him his last 2 runs

ALBA KING - Average profile at best
Have my doubts about whether he is fit enough
He could win but I prefer others

Shortlist

FORESTSIDE is very exposed
He is 10 and has 40 Chase starts
There are no strong problems with his profile
The fact he is 0-40 over fences is a big concern
He is coming down the weights and wants this longer trip

FRENCH SEVENTYFIVE is hard to read
I definitely felt his profile was on positive side
His 2 Chase runs have been unimpressive
Ignore that. He faced huge absences both time.
That was also when trained by a much weaker stable
A stable that have never trained a winner under rules
Now he has significantly upgraded trainers
His old trainer is a work rider for his new trainer
He should improve a lot for better handling
He is fit and should show better chase form now

Selection

FRENCH SEVENTYFIVE 4/1 Win Bet

FORESTSIDE 6/1 Saver Bet

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