0 Account Bet
0 Selection
1 Profiles/Preview bet
3 Races Discussed

The weekend starts tomorrow and we have two
days starting on Saturday without flat racing so
it will be National Hunt all the way this weekend.

There will be a Monday message and that looks
like it will be a Grand National message. I might
leak out another horse to bet in the National at
the weekend if it looks sensible to do just that.

Three previews today and nothing else. I don't
want to get dragged into small fields especially
at Lingfield so being selective and keeping the
messages tight. I've averaging just 2-3-4 races
a day at the moment. It will increase shortly but
with a Cold and one eye on the Grand National
work and some pre flat season preparations it
is one of those weeks I've limited the previews.



P r o f i l e & P r e v i e w B e t


Today's Bet

Dundalk 8.35

Crown Pleasure 6/1 Win Bet

Cristy´s Call 7/2 Saver Bet


Not a strong bet . The record shows that we are
W W W with staked bets this week which is good
but I think that flatters me. It sweeps plenty under
the carpet. I know from the speed or lack of it I'm
working at this week that I am not at my best and
good results have covered this up a bit. A Small
bet today. I'd go £7 win and £3 Saver but I'd like
to see a better message tomorrow done faster.



I did think about going with a shortie in the 6.05

Dundalk 6.05

Period Piece 4/5

I decided not to bother because of the price
I also felt the split stake bet was more attractive
Period Piece 4/5 to win the race
Blue Fragrance 4/5 to place in the race

Decided to have a less complicated day and just
go with the win bet and saver in the 8.35 Dundalk.


T h u r s d a y s R e v i e w

Unusual message especially with a rare ante post
bet. I will start with the three previews that ran on
the day. They finished P P L with a small loss over
the 3 races. I wasn't keen to stake any of those so
the only bet was the that antepost Grand National
bet on First Lieutenant. Whilst some may be quite
disappointed by his run yesterday I wasn't. He was
not running on a track that would suit him and this
was only a hurdle race slowly run in a tiny field and
people may have expected better because he was
odds on. There are many recent National winners
hammered on their recent starts and over hurdles
yet he was beaten only around 5 lengths. It was a
trial race. I fancy him no less than I did yesterday.
I am pleased I have got him "staked" and pleased
with his performance and the price he can still be
backed at. I have the option of upgrading the bet
if I choose to. When you look at some of the other
profiles in the race you will like him a lot more so
as things stand if he runs I am happy enough.



P r o f i l e s a n d P r e v i e w s


S e d g e f i e l d 3.35

4/1 Court Dismissed, 5/1 Red Danaher
6/1 Five In A Row, 13/2 Wolf Sword, 7/1 Istimraar
7/1 Make Me A Fortune, 8/1 Smooth Stepper
10/1 Mr Burgees, 14/1 Ice ´n´ Easy, 20/1 Boruma
25/1 Silver Shuffle.

* This is a 2m 4f handicap hurdle
* There are 79 similar races around Class 2 in March

* Horses that came from Novice Hurdles were 7-87
* All 7 winners finished either 1st or 2nd last time out
* Horses finishing 3rd or worse in a Novice Hurdle were 0-33
* Horses beaten over 10 lengths in Novice Hurdles were 0-26
* MR BURGEES fails this from a Novice Hurdle
* MAKE ME A FORTUNE fails this as well
* ICE ´N´ EASY also fails these two angles
* ISTIMRAAR also fails these statistics
* No 4yo won a similar race from a Novice/Maiden Hurdle
* COURT DISMISSED was 2nd in a Novice last time
* Beaten 12 lengths is longer than ideal though
* No 5yo has won a similar race beaten in a Novice
* He just failed my angles because of that
* SILVER SHUFFLE is not running well enough
* BORUMA also be looks too far below form
* FIVE IN A ROW comes from a Novice Handicap Chase
* There was a 7yo winning that did that
* He came from a Cheltenham Graded race though
* FIVE IN A ROW only comes from a Class 3 race
* FIVE IN A ROW is not a negative but not matchable
* SMOOTH STEPPER pulled up 6 days ago
* No horse ran as badly as that running recently

Shortlist

* WOLF SWORD was 2nd in a Novice Hurdle last time
* There were 4 horses with similar profiles
* They finished 2 2 W 6
* Those with under 4 hurdle runs like him were 2 2 6
* He's a positive but not an exact match to a winner

* RED DANAHER won a Novice Hurdle last time
* Only 1 horse his aged (8) ran with this profile
* That horse won so he looks a serious runner

Selection

RED DANAHER 5/1

Each Way





D u n d a l k 6.05

6/4 Period Piece, 5/2 Blue Fragrance, 3/1 Unchanged
12/1 Maknificent, 14/1 Tap Focus, 20/1 Doppler Effect
25/1 Royal County Boy, 50/1 Madame Nobel
50/1 Millennium Dancer, 50/1 Proper Order
66/1 Milford Lass.

This is a 3yo maiden claimer over 7f
Only 3 of these races have been run in Feb-March-April
The 3 winners had 4 4 5 career starts
Horses with under 3 runs were 0-16
UNCHANGED only has 2 runs
I'd be inclined to see him as the weakest link

PERIOD PIECE looks far safer with 3 runs

BLUE FRAGRANCE is better still with 5 runs
Her problem though is a 154 day absence
Much longer than ideal for a race like this

BLUE FRAGRANCE has upgraded stables
I think that's unusual for a horse in a claimer

I do like PERIOD PIECE as well though
Two runs ago I made her a big negative
Had an impossible draw and awful profile
She ran into a potentially good horse last time
Big gap back to the 3rd she could have the class

Selection

PERIOD PIECE 10/11

Win Bet





D u n d a l k 8.35

9/2 Cristy´s Call, 6/1 Crown Pleasure, 8/1 Colla Pier
8/1 King Of Oriel, 8/1 Well Insured, 10/1 Blue Ridge Lane
10/1 Hammermann, 10/1 Headlong, 16/1 That´s Ours
20/1 Annadiamond, 20/1 Flaring Forth, 20/1 Mosman Park
33/1 Hard Times.

* This is a 12f handicap for 0-68 rated horses
* There are 139 similar races in March
* These are 12f handicaps between 0-65 and 0-75

* FLARING FORTH isn't running well enough
* ANNADIAMOND is a Diamond Green Filly
* I don't want her with just 1 race since early October
* No horse aged 9 or more won absent over a month
* MOSMAN PARK is 10 and absent 107 days
* WELL INSURED is 11 older than all 139 winners
* Without a recent run I would avoid him
* HARD TIMES has to go coming from 5f to 12f
* HAMMERMANN fails my breeding statistics
* Bothers me more he has just 1 run in 140 days

* BLUE RIDGE LANE is a badly drawn 9 year old
* KING OF ORIEL is an exposed 6yo up in distance
* My angles suggest he may be short of recent runs
* Raced just once in 114 days his profile is not safe
* His previous runs at this trip have been failures
* HEADLONG has an average profile
* He is a quirky type and 12f may not be his best trip
* I can't rule him out but he is usually best avoided
* THAT´S OURS - Average profile. Not ruled out
* EXCELLI wouldn't be first choice
* Not as a 5yo absent with 7 runs
* From a stable yet to have a winner
* COLLA PIER has a decent chance
* My draw stats suggest Stall 14 is hard to win from
* There is a case for making her a saver

Shortlist

* CRISTY´S CALL is progressive but has stamina issues
* He is no certainty to stay 12f
* Hís sires runners are 0-20 racing over 11f and more
* He has placed over 12f in a weaker race though
* He does have stamina to draw on from the dam's side
* He's on a hat trick after two wins over 10f
* This is a better race and up 2f in distance
* He will need a lot of luck in running in this field
* I have concerns about him getting home
* I did like his turn of foot here last time though
* I think he is the sensible saver

* CROWN PLEASURE is a 4yo filly with a recent run
* Three horses had a very similar profile
* Two were 33/1 + losers the other (Lady Lunchalot) won
* With a recent run I think she should run close

Selection

CROWN PLEASURE 6/1 Win Bet

CRISTY´S CALL 7/2 Saver Bet


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