0 Account Bet
0 Selection
1 Profiles/Preview bet
6 Races Discussed

Five meetings today but as a message it doesn't
feel significant. I started on the all weather but it
soon became clear I was suffering from a lack of
imagination and it felt stale and not enjoyable so
I decided to leave the Southwell and Chelmsford
cards. Might be a seasonal pre Cheltenham issue
but I got very bored there and I lacked invention.

Not much in England interested me either. Might
just be one of those days where things have not
clicked. I found the racing a bit more interesting
in Ireland and there are some races I liked so it's
not devoid of potential bets. I'm going with only
one smaller strength bet in Ireland at 8/1 where
I found Thurles to be the most stimulating card.


Profiles and Preview Bets


Thurles 2.15

Shesaportrait 8/1

Each Way



W e d n e s d a y s R e v i e w

Very happy with yesterdays offerings most of
all the biggest bet on STREETS OF PROMISE
who won easily by 13 lengths returning 7/2 and
bigger than advised in the morning. Took me a
bit by surprise to go with a bet and Although it
only really comes out as a 7/4 winner it is nice
enough. The message opposed 3 horses and
they all were beaten so the credit goes to my
angles. The Split Stake profile & preview bet
nicked a tiny bit given a winner and loser and
I will take that. The only disappointment came
in the football as we were heading towards a
winner needing just 7 more minutes without
a goal and then one was scored helped by a
lucky deflection and spoilt the bet. I think we
should keep an eye on Monaco and perhaps
look at having another bet around their very
good defensive record soon. That's for later.



C h e l t e n h a m C o u n t d o w n

Ruby Walsh will be leaving the Champion Hurdle
decision to ride FAUGHEEN or HURRICANE FLY
until the Sunday before the meeting. Statistically
he should ride FAUGHEEN because of a horrible
record of horses aged 10 + like HURRICANE FLY.

* Look at the Grade 1 Hurdle races at the festival
* Since 1992 there has been 102 of these races
* Horses aged 10 or more have a 0-60 record

* This 0-60 record includes some top class horses
* Istabraq - Inglis Drever - Barracouds
* Rooster Booter - Hardy Eustace - Brave Inca
* Hurricane Fly - Big Bucks - Harchibald
* Celestial Halo - War of Attrition

* This year a few more will try to buck this statistic
* I will be opposing all of them
* These are the main horses trying to bust this stat

* Hurricane Fly 8/1 in the Champion Hurdle
* Rock On Ruby 7/1 in the World Hurdle
* Jetson 16/1 in the World Hurdle
* Reve De Sivola 16/1 in the World Hurdle
* Back In Focus 25/1 in the World Hurdle



P r o f i l e s a n d P r e v i e w s


L u d l o w 1.50

2/1 Sweeping Rock, 3/1 Scoop The Pot, 4/1 Argot
8/1 Arthamint, 12/1 Maverik, 14/1 Gorman, 14/1 Low Key
14/1 Sir Frank Morgan, 25/1 Just A Normal Day
33/1 Sharp, 100/1 Bronwydd, 100/1 Red Hot Secret
100/1 Sanndiyr, 100/1 Symphony Of Pearls.

This is a 2m Novice Hurdle
February have 253 similar races
I see weakness in SCOOP THE POT
He is 5 and has had just 1 hurdle race before
That's fine but he has no supporting races
He has no Bumper form and no Flat form
If you have a profile like that you need a win last time
Look at horses with 1 hurdle run beaten last time
When having no bumper or flat runs
Horses aged 5 doing this are 0-37
Horses aged 6 doing this are 0-22
SCOOP THE POT as a 5 year old fails this
My angles say oppose SCOOP THE POT

The problem is with what.
ARGOT may not be the natural each way bet he looks
There are some warning signs for me
Bought and owned by a well known Tipster off the flat
Cost only 11 grand suggesting limitations
ARGOT is sired by Three Valleys
So far 10 horses by this sire have gone hurdling
Between them these 10 horses have a 1-34 record
They are 0-18 racing on the soft side
I think his sires runners are more speed than stamina
Not convinced ARGOT will get home in the ground

There are several here with neutral profiles
MAVERICK and LOW KEY are hard to read

Shortlist

SWEEPING ROCK is a definite option
He was an underachiever on the flat
Only sold for 10k because of that
There were only 2 horses under 16/1 with his profile
They finished 1st and 11th
SWEEPING ROCK appealed more than most

ARTHAMINT is a neutral positive and hard to read
I would want him on the staking plan for some cover

SWEEPING ROCK and ARTHAMINT come from the same race
Should be close between them
I'm staking it with an element of value and safety


Selection

ARTHAMINT 8/1 + Win Bet

SWEEPING ROCK 4/5 Place Bet







Southwell 2.10

7/4 Gerrard´s Slip, 4/1 Moon River, 4/1 Patrick
5/1 Come Uppence, 10/1 Gabrial The Tiger
10/1 Zebs Lad, 20/1 Marigot Bay, 25/1 Poolstock.

I'm leaving this 5f handicap for 3 year olds
Not drawn to the horses with under 3 runs
Gerrard´s Slip and Patrick fail this
It's all a bit ambiguous though
Horses with under 3 career starts were 1-16
However those winning 6f races were just 0-1
Gerrard´s Slip has this profile so is more a neutral
Moon River is also impossible to read
Has flaws but first run for Michael Appleby a positive
Come Uppence won a 5f maiden last time
None doing that had 10 or more runs and he has 13
Zebs Lad would have made the shortlist
I wouldn't go with Patrick or Gerrard's Slip
Come Uppence may have more of a place role
Moon River and Zebs Lad shortlisted
Zebs Lad at 20/1 seems very weak but good value

No Selection




T h u r l e s 2.15

9/4 Feenakilmeedy, 4/1 Carrigeen Kigelia
5/1 Shuilamach, 7/1 Shesaportrait, 8/1 Love On Top
10/1 Kindly Vinnie, 12/1 Molly Connors, 12/1 Vole Au Vent
20/1 Shaunas Dream, 25/1 Perfect Promise
25/1 Posh Frock, 50/1 Cabra Cruizor
50/1 The Conker Club.

* This is a Mares Beginners Chase
* February and March have 80 of these races
* That's 80 races at any distance

* I'm interested in Chasing debutants here
* 12 of the 80 winners had no Chasing form at all
* Look at the distances these horses raced at
* Those that ran over 2m 4f or more were 12-101
* Those that ran over 3m 2f or shorter were 0-52

Chasing debutants only seem to have won when
racing over 2m 4f or more and perhaps they are
caught out by the quicker pace over shorter trips.

* SHUILAMACH is opposed as a chasing debutant
* LOVE ON TOP is opposed as a chasing debutant
* MOLLY CONNORS is opposed as a chasing debutant
* KINDLY VINNIE is opposed as a chasing debutant
* CABRA CRUIZOR is opposed as a chasing debutant

* I'm against SHAUNAS DREAM not running well
* She has also downgraded stables recently
* PERFECT PROMISE hasn't shown enough
* VOLE AU VENT wouldn't be my first choice
* The only 6yo winners were more experienced

Shortlist

SHESAPORTRAIT
FEENAKILMEEDY
CARRIGEEN KIGELIA

Not in familiar territory of course. These all seem to
have positives and negatives. There is strangely an
impressive record from horses with this profile.

* Horses that have run over fences before
* Running 31-56 days ago
* Starting under 33/1
* Horses with this profile had a 7-15 record
* Those that came from a hurdle race were 4-6
* They finished W 3 W W W 2
* The 2014 winner of this race had this profile
* The 2010 winner of this race had this profile
* SHESAPORTRAIT also has this profile

Selection

SHESAPORTRAIT 8/1

Each Way



T a u n t o n 2.30

4/5 Herbert Park, 15/8 Mister Grez, 9/1 Sonny The One
10/1 Fountains Blossom, 20/1 Say My Name, 25/1 Dunn´s River
33/1 Mon Petit Ange, 100/1 Cellist, 100/1 Nicki´s Nipper
100/1 Ofcoursewecan.

This is a Novice Hurdle over 2m 3f
MISTER GREG ran in a Chase 5 days ago
HERBERT PARK won a maiden hurdle last time
Running both profiles there was only one option
HERBERT PARK has a better and safer profile
No other runners came close to his profile
I can't see a sensible alternative

Selection

HERBERT PARK 8/11

Win Bet




T h u r l e s 2.45

2/1 Arnaud, 9/4 Rubi Light
100/30 Irish Thistle, 4/1 He´llberemembered.

* This is a 2m 2f Chase
* Restricted to horses rated 145 or lower
* These are all smart horses
* RUBI LIGHT is a big horse who is better at 2m 4f
* 2m 2f at this track may well be a bit sharp for him
* IRISH THISTLE wouldn't be my first choice
* Lightly raced he has only won a Novice Chase before
* That is the only Chase winner his trainer has had
* He has only ever had 1 winner over fences before
* HE´LLBEREMEMBERED is worst in at the weights
* He is also a 12 year old now
* Not convinced about him over this distance anyway
* ARNAUD looks the bet to me
* He simply needs a tight track like this
* I think he will make all and not get caught

Selection

ARNAUD 13/8

Win Bet





T h u r l e s 3.45

5/2 Winter Breeze, 3/1 First To Boogie
5/1 O´donoghue´s Opera, 11/2 Samson Bill
9/1 Lets High Five It, 10/1 Cliffside Park, 14/1 Lahaag
16/1 Robbina, 33/1 Dontbackme, 33/1 Fiddlers Bow
33/1 Goodluck Noel, 33/1 Kilkarney Mai
50/1 Monasteradenpauric, 50/1 Shadow Shopper
66/1 Old Irish, 66/1 Silent Wish, 66/1 Silver Serenade
66/1 Toomuchthinkin.

* This is a 2m maiden hurdle
* There are 162 of these races in February
* Very intimidating field size
* Most of these won't have much of a chance

* There are some interesting negatives here
* O´DONOGHUE´S OPERA is a negative
* Horses from a 2m maiden hurdle
* Aged 5
* Running within a month
* Horses with this profile were 11-202
* Those beaten 20 + lengths last time were 0-147
* O´DONOGHUE´S OPERA fails this and is rejected

* I am against SAMSON BILL hammered over 2m 6f +
* No horse as old as him won defying that profile
* LAHAAG looks regressive and hasn't shown enough
* LETS HIGH FIVE IT may pop in but I don't see enough

Shortlist

* WINTER BREEZE has an obvious chance

* CLIFFSIDE PARK is 6 and comes from a bumper 140 days ago
* I have to make him a positive
* Just 2 weeks ago a horse won with this profile
* That was Lockstockandbarrel who won at this track

* FIRST TO BOOGIE has a decent profile
* 7yo Male. 1 Hurdle run. Down from 19f
* Horses with his profile were 2-6
* I made him a big negative last time
* He failed a 0-50 stat last time out
* He was also opposed on a trainer statistic
* Anthony Mullins hurdling debutants are 0-55
* They are not primed to win first time out
* This his 2nd run could see abnormal improvement

Selection

FIRST TO BOOGIE 4/1

Win Bet




C h e l t e n h a m S t a t i s t i c s

Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate

Handicap Chase 2m 5f

* This is a Handicap Chase over 2m 5f
* It was Formerly known as the Mildmay of Flete
* This is a race where shocks can be expected
* The last 13 winners had the following SP's
* 12/1 50/1 9/2 25/1 18/1 33/1 66/1 12/1 14/1 25/1 12/1 16/1 25/1

* England have dominated this race
* The last Irish winners were 1982 and 1951
* All 43 Irish horses were beaten in this race since 1992

* 17 of the last 21 winners finished 1-2-3-4-5 last time
* However the last 3 winners had not been
* They finished PU PU 12th last time out
* Recent trend has been against a good run last time

* 17 of the last 20 winners has at least 3 runs that season
* Look at the 3 winners that did not have that
* They were all trained by David or Martin Pipe
* The 3 winners all carried between 10st 9lbs-10st 10lbs

* I looked at winners from a Novice Chase
* The 1995-1998-2004-2010 winners did this
* They all had 11st or less
* They all finished 1st 2nd 1st 4th last time out

* Don't rule out 1st season Chasers
* Majadou (1999) was a 1st season Novice with 4 Chase runs
* Kadi (1995) was a 1st season chaser with 7 Chase runs
* Great Endeavour (2010) also did it with 3 Chase runs

* The first 4 horses each year
* This is their combined Hurdle and Chase runs

* The first 4 in 2014 had 13 14 33 and 20 Career starts
* The first 4 in 2013 had 24 28 38 and 16 Career starts
* The first 4 in 2012 had 3, 11, 16 and 27 Career starts
* The first 4 in 2011 had 19 , 22 , 4 and 20 Career starts
* The first 4 in 2010 had 8, 13 , 22 and 79 Career starts
* The first 4 in 2009 had 16 , 12 , 15 and 28 Career starts
* The first 4 in 2008 had 60, 5, 23 and 9 Career starts
* The first 4 in 2007 had 18 , 16 , 25 and 29 Career starts
* The first 4 in 2006 had 22 , 26 , 13 and 14 Career starts
* The first 4 in 2005 had 13 , 39 , 28 and 10 Career starts
* The first 4 in 2004 had 25 , 19 , 23 and 15 Career starts
* The first 4 in 2003 had 25 , 18 , 18 and 38 Career starts
* The first 4 in 2002 had 28 , 23 , 29 and 17 Career starts
* The first 4 in 2000 had 19 , 19 , 19 and 25 Career starts

* 18 of the last 21 winners had 13 + runs over hurdles/fences
* 15 of the last 16 winners had no more than 16 Chase stars

* Avoid horses running within 15 days unless from Cheltenham
* Only the 66/1 winner in 2008 has done that
* Horses absent 16-47 days have won the majority of renewals
* There were 5 winners from Listed or Graded races
* They had 1-1-3-6-7 runs that season
* They were aged 8-7-6-11-11

* Horses that carried 11st 8lbs or more are 0-44
* The last winner carrying that weight was in 1985

* 25 of the 27 winners were rated no higher than 141
* 18 of the last 21 winners carried 11st or less
* French Breds have won 7 of the last 16 renewals
* 20 of the last 23 winners had ran at the festival before

* Recent results show any age can win this race
* Recent winners aged 8-9-7-10-6-8-11-8-8-6-7-10-9-9-5
* Paul Nicholls has a 0-23 record in the race
* No past winner came from hurdles (0-20)
* Horses from 18f or shorter won just 2 races

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