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Only a quick message today
Partly down to the lack of choice
Partly because there is a Monday message this week

Normally I'd break tomorrow but there are two flat
cards that will offer me more than today's offerings.

Over the weekend there were 8 meetings and only
one of these was on the Flat and that's partly why it
has been a bet free weekend. There should be one
tomorrow though now the All weather comes back.

Next Message Tomorrow


T o d a y ' s M e s s a g e


One Preview

Fairyhouse 3.10

£6 Win Bless The Wings 6/1

£2 Each Way Forever Gold 12/1

I will suggest this as a small interest bet

Low Grade National Hunt on soft/heavy is not
my idea of safe betting so I will not stake a bet
on him and wait for the all weather tomorrow.


Leicester doesn't offer much. It never does.

Fairyhouse is dominated by high class prospects
that are odds on. None of them appeal as horses
I can sensibly bet or oppose either. I have looked
at the 3m 5f Handicap Chase as the main preview.


Carlisle

Not really in my comfort zone here
Had a look at a few races
None were able to be opened without risk
My best bet there is in the 3.20pm
This is a 3m 1f handicap hurdle on heavy ground
The horse comes out best on breeding stats
Comes out with the best profile
Similar 7yo debutants were W W from a small sample size
The horse is PRAIRIE LAD 3/1
Unraced this year so fitness is not guaranteed
But he is the only horse at Carlisle I liked






D a i l y N e g a t i v e s

No Negative Today

Results of Negatives
20 correct bets from 25



S a t u r d a y 's S u m m a r y

Not a good Saturday message but it was certainly
a luckless one and never had the run of the balls
at any stage. Notably two early Fallers including a
frustrating First fence faller in the Hennessy and
much as he may not have won we could have got
a place beaten as far as 20 lengths so we have to
accept a frustrating fact that we can never know
what would have happened. Spiritual Star looked
like winning and was matched on Betfair to win at
1.31 and 1.02 to place. Tippmanboy went off miles
ahead of his rival and could have gone off a little
to quickly before being caught late. It was a poor
combination of an underachieving message that
was also cursed with bad luck. I suppose my only
saving grace was not having any staked bets but
I am not fooling myself that this is significant and
like myself most of you will have had a losing day.


Hennessy

My selection fell at the first fence and that was
very annoying but part of National Hunt racing.

Smad Place was statistically fine. I didn't select
him for two reasons. Unproven stamina and my
belief that the big field could be a problem too.

Lessons have to learnt here.

It is the sort of race where after a few fences
half the field are out of it and Smad Place did
not have a big field to beat as he was running
at the front of the field. If he front runs as he
did it takes away a lot of the concern about a
big field. It was a mistake not to consider this.

In terms of stamina another thing I may have
considered better is that in races like this its
possible to be beaten 30 lengths yet still get
placed even if you do not fully stay the trip. I
can obviously claim that had we not fallen at
the first fence we could still have been right
and perhaps The Young Man may have won it
but the truth of the matter is that I am a little
disappointed with my overall Hennessy work.

What this has done though is focus the mind
on the Welsh National a race I take seriously.
I will be throwing the kitchen sink at this race
and I will begin that tomorrow. The Ante Post
will return tomorrow starting this process.


P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s



F a i r y h o u s e 3.10

9/2 Bless The Wings, 5/1 No Secrets
13/2 Killer Crow, 7/1 Clar Na Mionn, 8/1 Jansboy
10/1 Betterthanalright, 16/1 Sword Fish, 20/1 Forever Gold
25/1 Cootamundra.

This is a 3m 5f handicap Chase
Looked at all similar races at this time of year

SWORD FISH is not in the right place at the moment
I see no reason why he can overcome sluggish form

NO SECRETS is a 11yo seasonal debutant
With Topweight and from a weak sire over similar races
I felt he had too much to do
Especially as he is sired by King's Theatre

COOTAMUNDRA is 12 and older than acceptable

Horses with 2 or more runs this season are best
Most past winners of this race had 2 + runs
BETTERTHANALRIGHT only has 1 run
Well beaten in that race he is too risky

Horses from recent races over 2m 5f or less struggle
Especially when they were beaten last time
When racing within the past 3 weeks
These horses have a 1-47 record
I'm opposing JANSBOY as an 8yo on this statistic


Shortlist

CLAR NA MIONN was 2nd in the Cork National
I oppose him that day and it was a good run
I like his recent runs and fitness levels
Whilst he is very well treated
Both his wins have come on sharp tracks
This is far from that
CLAR NA MIONN has 4 runs here
He has been hammered 4 times
There are excuses for this but it's a worry
Shortlisted but it's why he is not the selection

KILLER CROW is a 6 year old
I looked at similar 6 year olds
Those from Non Handicap Chases
Coming up in distance with under 4 Chase starts
Beaten more than 40 lengths last time
I found a pretty good record 1-5 record
Fell 12/1
3rd 8/1
4th 66/1
2nd 10/1
Won 7/2

The winner like KILLER CROW is Soudain
Soudain came from 2m 6f
KILLER CROW comes from 2m 4f
Soudain had 34 days off after a bad run
KILLER CROW only has 15 days
That's a worry for me
Shortlisted and gets the benefit of the doubt
Best Trainer Best Jockey Best Sire 3 good reasons why
But he doesn't make it to selection

FOREVER GOLD is not a certain stayer
He is also out of form
Worth nothing he was being backed very early yesterday
I suppose you can argue he has been hurdling
You only have to go back 11 months
And he fell at the last in the Irish National here
When having every chance in 3rd place at the time
He likes it here and the market support is interesting
Around 12/1 looks a sensible saver

BLESS THE WINGS was 4th in the Cork National
He was well beaten that day
I made him a negative that day so can understand why
Good run last time in a Cheltenham Cross Country race
That is not an orthodox preparation though
It means I can't match him to a winner
But he ticks a lot of boxes
One of the fittest horses
That counts for a great deal
He is running well something many others aren't
His highest rated dangers today are 132 and 124
He met horses rated significantly higher last time
Yes it was a Cross Country race
So can not be taken literally
But BLESS THE WINGS has other form claims
He was 2nd at the Cheltenham festival in the Kim Muir
That was off a higher mark in a 0-145 race
That proves he has the raw ability to win this
You can argue he has a 0-8 soft ground record
Only very few were in long distance chases
Some were with long absences
No reason in my view why he can't handle it


Selection

£6 Win BLESS THE WINGS 5/1

£2 Each Way FOREVER GOLD 12/1


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