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5 Races Discussed


I have not pushed hard today and the message
is simply a non-committal one. It is now a 15th
message in 16 days and I have deliberately left
it bet-free and limited the analysis just to get a
break. We have the Guineas weekend to come
followed by Bank Holiday Monday and Chester
and that's too heavy a programme after 15/16
day messages. Last night I ignored the cards
and did some Saturday work which included a
look at tomorrow's 2000 Guineas. I didn't look
at todays cards until this morning so taking it
very light today just to try to catch my breath.





P r o f i l e & P r e v i e w B e t s


The New Negatives Column Starts Today

There is a Negative today explained later.

I could have done without doing today so
I am keeping away from any staked bets,




Lingfield 3.05

Seek The Fair Land 6/4 Win Bet
Munsarim 12/1 Saver

This race is like yesterdays best bet when
we opposed a 3yo in a seller/claimer. I feel
we should avoid the 3 year olds. I think we
have the winner but my one feeling doing
this race was what a stupid decision made
yesterday not to bet Pearl Blue when only
one horse was a danger. This race will be
harder but Seek The Fair Land looks best,



Chester 3.15

Secret Millionaire 8/1

I have backed him.
75% of my stake to Win
25% to Place

This horse was my bet two weeks ago
It made me look a fool
Staking a bet on him is just unpalatable
It may be a chance to get your money back and more
Far more comfortable with a personal bet
Rather than a staked bet
Expect little or nothing from this selfish mule
At 8/1 he appeals to me as a bet with no pressure


It is a deliberately weak message
Designed mainly to save me some energy
Get me a head start on tomorrows cards




New Negatives Column

About time I got this up and running.
I have decided to grade these bets 3 ways

Grade 1 Negative
Grade 2 Negative
Grade 3 Negative

Grade 1 Negatives

These will be the strongest and horses that
I would advise as a Lay. I warn you I don't do
much laying myself and I won't be giving any
horses to lay a big prices. I doubt any will be
more than 2/1 but they are my best negatives.

Grade 2 Negative

These Negatives will be strong enough and
a Negative in this Grade will mean that there
is enough of an edge to have a bet. Maybe a
bet on one of the other horses in the race as
an alternative to a lay on the Negative.

Grade 3 Negative

Simply a lower strength negative. Little more
than a horse I would not choose in my preview.

Don't get hung up on these
They are nothing to do with any account
They are entirely up to you and optional

I will start this today and it's place in the
message will be at the end of the P&P bets.



Message Negatives


Grade 2 Negative

Lingfield 3.05

Corzetti 5/2


This looks a race you should consider a bet
on something else as I do not like his profile.





T h u r s d a y s S u m m a r y

It was a no bet message and a late one as well
and one of the reasons for that was making the
decision whether to stake PEARL BLUE on any
account. He was my best bet and won. I made a
wrong decision and I suspected that at the time
but made it as I did not want 2 short priced bets
in a row. This plays into the psychological flaw I
have about staked bets. With a big bank holiday
weekend and Chester coming up and wanted to
clear my mind so it is not corrupted with doubt
on bigger days to come. Not defending that as
I understand it is a flaw. I've learnt to live with
it and have compensated for this by improving
my performance in the last 12 months. We are
much more clinical now and you will know the
bets can be trusted. They won't all win and do
not always come supported by the rallying cry
some would want but they can be trusted and
they deliver. Messages are more economical.
I think we are going well with obvious issues
we need to sort like stop dossing about on a
lower grade account and get back to big bets.



P r o f i l e & P r e v i e w s



L i n g f i e l d 3.05


2/1 Seek The Fair Land, 11/4 Corzetti
3/1 Imperial Link, 9/2 Turnbury, 20/1 Munsarim
20/1 Rokbaan, 25/1 Strategic Action.

This is a selling race over a Mile

CORZETTI is a 3yo from a maiden with 3 runs
I looked at every 8f seller in April and May
3 year olds with under 6 runs were 0-36
CORZETTI fails that
I looked at every seller in April and May at every distance
3 Year olds from maidens were 0-70
CORZETTI also fails that and looks wrong
IMPERIAL LINK is also a 3 year old and a filly
I find a weak profile well beaten last year
And when having just 1 run this season
I am against the 3 year olds
ROKBAAN is also out as a 3yo
TURNBURY is wrong as a 4yo from 11f +
All 28 horses doing that lost

I think this pair are best

MUNSARIM
SEEK THE FAIR LAND

No doubt SEEK THE FAIR LAND is the more likely
winner but he is 9 and up in distance and there is
nothing much between him and MUNSARIM from
a statistical point of view. The latter is the saver
but has a miserable task at the weights.

Selection

SEEK THE FAIR LAND 6/4 Win Bet

MUNSARIM 12/1 Saver




C h e p s t o w 3.15

7/2 Tarooq, 9/2 Macdillon, 5/1 Midnight Rider
7/1 Beau Mistral, 7/1 Secret Millionaire, 8/1 Threave
14/1 Powerful Wind, 14/1 Swendab, 16/1 Haadeeth
16/1 Parisian Pyramid, 25/1 Temple Road.

* This is a 5f handicap for horses aged 6 +
* These "Veterans" races are rare but interesting
* They are sometimes called "Seniors" races

* Only 16 of them are run at any time of year
* Interesting that all 16 winners ran within 75 days
* 15 of the 16 winners ran within 5 weeks

Given the nature of this race I would have to take
on horses without recent runs so BEAU MISTRAL
MACDILLON and THREAVE must go all seasonal
debutants. TEMPLE ROAD and HAADEETH don't
come out well with their absences. I am against a
horse like POWERFUL WIND absent 6 weeks and
it is best to stay with horses with recent races.

No doubt that TAROOQ has the ability to win the
race but he's having his first race for a new yard
and a 22 day absence is not perfect. There is the
problem that TAROOQ has never ran over 5f on
Grass before as well. There are definite risks if
we back him. I do not feel PARISIAN PYRAMID or
SWENDAB did enough last time.

MIDNIGHT RIDER is shortlistable

SECRET MILLIONAIRE is also shortlistable

I made myself look a right Mug two weeks ago
when I chose to bet SECRET MILLIONAIRE at
Wolves on the Saturday night over 6f a trip he
has never won over before. He ran badly and
drifted in the betting. I risked him that day as
he'd just recorded his best Racing Post Rating
in 8 months when impeded at Musselburgh so
felt he was running into form. I'm still annoyed
with myself for that bet and I know too well he
could very easily make me look a mug here as
well. He has won on his only Chepstow run so
likes it here and 10/1 and more could be worth
a risk if you are prepared to risk this mule.

Selection

SECRET MILLIONAIRE 10/1

75% Win Bet
25% Place Bet




C h e p s t o w 5.00

7/2 Four Nations, 6/1 Medburn Cutler,
8/1 Ninepointsixthree, 8/1 Shadows Ofthenight
8/1 Tijori, 12/1 Taste The Wine, 12/1 Toretto
14/1 Fuzzy Logic, 16/1 Blue Talisman, 33/1 Blue Top.



This is a 2m handicap

I like FOUR NATIONS here
He won 4 days ago and has a fitness advantage
I like the fact he is a 70 rated horse facing a 0-65

If we can rule out SHADOWS OFTHENIGHT
Which is possible as he may not stay 2 miles
No horse by Fastnet Rock has won over 14f or more yet
Then he has just a 0-62 class race to beat

Given TASTE THE WINE may not be fit
He is 9 and has raced just once in Months
And given AAMAN is 9 and hasn't raced since 2012
Then FOUR NATIONS only has a 0-60 field against him

Impossible to accurately rate some of these
Especially those coming from National Hunt races
I just didn't see 3 horses beating FOUR NATIONS

FOUR NATIONS Each Way 100/30
looks the percentage bet





B a n g o r 5.20

3/1 Pennies And Pounds, 4/1 Horace Hazel
9/2 Duke Of Monmouth, 5/1 Billy Congo, 12/1 Miss H Lewiss

12/1 Westerly Breeze, Magic Present, 14/1 March Seventeenth
16/1 The Wee Midget, 20/1 Dolly Diamond, 20/1 Toast And Jam,
25/1 Nicky Nutjob.

This is a 3m handicap hurdle
When I look at Mares coming from 2m 4f races
I find a disappointing 1-72 record
PENNIES AND POUNDS has this problem
I liked the horses from Novice Handicaps

I opposed HORACE HAZEL last time
He was heavily backed but failed a 0-37 stat
I opposed him as he went from 2m to 3m
This could easily be the right race for him
I would save on him

BILLY CONGO won a Novice Handicap 9 days ago
It is a fair profile and I feel he is the main bet

Selection

BILLY CONGO 8/1 Win Bet

HORACE HAZEL 2/1 Saver Bet




B a n g o r 5.50

I wouldn't oppose FOREVER FIELD

Just felt he had the safest profile


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