0 Account Bet
0 Selection
1 Profile & Preview bet
0 Negatives
11 Race Discussed

Not the easiest message to finish and there
are 11 previews which are dotted around all
different kinds of races. It is a message that
has been stretched a bit because I have so
many different statistics and breeding stats
in many strange areas I have had to cover a
few races I would not normally have chosen.



Today's Bet


York 2.30

BESHARAH 4/1

Each Way


4/1 VC PPower Spbet Bet365 Skybet Tote Betfair
7/2 Elsewhere





T o d a y s M e s s a g e


It is a bit of a collective mess today given a few
obscure stats I want to share but which placed
me in some races I'm not confident I can master.

I haven't enjoyed doing this message
I don't think you will enjoy it much either
It is ugly and not very customer friendly
It is not a message I would want to follow all day.

I am going to try and rescue a horrible message
Only 1 bet and 1 winner can do that
This was the Ante Post Bet I was looking at


York 2.30

BESHARAH 4/1

Each Way


August results have yet to live up to July so
far but it seems the vast majority of bets are
money back or placed bets and we seem to
be just about breaking level on the majority
of bets so I suppose it could be a lot worse.
I would like a few more clear clean winners.




D a i l y N e g a t i v e s

No Negatives Today

Results of Negatives

20 correct bets from 24





W e d n e s d a y s S u m m a r y

The message concentrated on two races and as
ever there are some interesting points to chew
over. I rejected the bet on AT FIRST LIGHT only
to see him win but he was very lucky to win and
there was a big rule 4 so we didn't miss much at
all. The main selection was SYMBOLIST who we
backed each way. It was a 12 furlong maiden and
for 11 of those 12 furlongs I wanted to cancel my
bet as he was held up at the back looking like a
non tryer. In the end thankfully he finished well
to grab a place and I'm very relieved about that.
No damage done over the two races but things
could have gone a lot worse and maybe it was a
day where we were lucky and escaped a bullet.





P r o f i l e & P r e v i e w s

Y o r k 1.55

7/4 Tasleet, 7/2 Orvar, 13/2 Lathom, 8/1 Projection
9/1 Excessable, 12/1 Mr Lupton, 16/1 Delizia, 16/1 Rantan
16/1 Still On Top, 20/1 Ferryover, 25/1 A Momentofmadness
25/1 Encantar, 25/1 Operative, 33/1 Mickey
33/1 Sign Of The Kodiac, 33/1 Top Of The Bank
40/1 Rockley Point, 50/1 General Alexander
100/1 Billy Roberts.

This is a Sales race for 2 year olds over 6f
Just some basic guidance in these races
Horses from Nurseries have to be avoided
You should oppose horses with 7 or more runs
Horses that wear Headgear should be opposed
Avoid horses that lost by 10 + lengths last time
Avoid Males from Maidens with 1 run
You want a horse that ran within 7 weeks
Avoid horses with 2-3-4 runs if they have not won before
Horses from 7f races are poor with 3 + runs
Horses winning maidens last time with 3 + runs are unsafe
This leaves us with the following rather obvious shortlist

Rantan - Mr Lupton -Excessable
Lathom -Projection -Orvar -Tasleet

Too many fancied runners
An Embarrassing failure at a shortlist attempt



Chepstow 2.10

2/1 Al Khateya, 5/2 This Is For You, 11/4 Just Glamorous
8/1 Lunar Son, 14/1 Bahamian Boy, 20/1 Giant Shadow
25/1 Donttouchthechips, 50/1 Blue Blaze.

This is a 5f maiden
There are just about 3 you can fancy here
I passed the 3 shortest priced runners as fine
I don't fancy any of the other horses

JUST GLAMOROUS has 4 runs and rated 75
THIS IS FOR YOU has 3 runs and rated 73
Either could win. They set the standard

The main issue in the race is this
Can once raced AL KHATEYA improve past them
She has the best connections
She may have fewer runs but she cost 350k
These are quite impressive credentials
There is a very good excuse
She was drawn 16 of 16 at Windsor over 6f
Unraced 2 year olds do not win drawn that high
Watched the race and she ran with plenty of credit
She was only beaten just over 4 lengths
The jockey hardly touched her in the last furlong
She has ability and is not faced with a stiff standard

On Racing Post Ratings she has 15lbs to find
You can never tell but I prefer her
Her last run persuaded me she could be better class

Stop Press

AL KHATEYA is now a very annoying non runner

THIS IS FOR YOU gets a marginal vote

Selection

THIS IS FOR YOU 6/4

Win Bet





Y o r k 2.30

5/4 Lumiere, 7/2 Besharah, 9/2 Easton Angel
7/1 Ashadihan, 12/1 Quiet Reflection, 16/1 Lady Clair
20/1 Continental Lady, 40/1 Glenrowan Rose
50/1 Twin Falls.

This is a Group 2 race for 2yo fillies

This race revolves around LUMIERE
She won her only start and was hugely impressive
I am going to try and get her beaten

One argument for that is the Mark Johnston record
It is pretty miserable at this meeting
His overall record is 12-234 after another 6 losers yesterday
I tend not to use trainer trends
But since 2010 the Johnston record is worrying
His Runners at this meeting are just 1-87 since 2010

LUMIERE having just 1 run is my next reason
Past winners had the following previous races
6 4 2 3 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 1 2 2 3 5 3 2
Only 1 of the last 18 winners had just 1 race
That winner was Carry On Katie in 2003

When Carry On Katie Won with 1 race
She had achieved a Racing Post Rating of 106 on debut
LUMIERE has only achieved a Racing Post Rating of 90
That is a mile behind Carry On Katie
Look at Racing Post Ratings of all recent winners
This is what they have achieved before they won this race
117 110 101 106 104 105 92 91 100 110 100 106 111 105 106
13 of the last 15 winners had achieved a rating of 100 +
LUMIERE is well behind achieving just 90
All 15 winners had done more than her on these numbers
I am naturally inclined to avoid once raced horses
And when she falls short on Racing Post Ratings as well
Then there is no incentive to bet her at a short price

If you look at races over 6f here with 8 + runners
Results show the worst draw to be Stall 2
These have a 2-76 record in the last 3 seasons
LUMIERE has Stall 2 as well which should not help her

I am taking out horses with poor numbers
We know the last 15 winners had R.P.Ratings of 90
CONTINENTAL LADY only has an 84 rating and 1 run
QUIET REFLECTION only has an 87 rating and 1 run
TWIN FALLS - LADY CLAIR have numbers that are too low
GLENROWAN ROSE hasn't achieved enough after 6 runs
There are 3 each options against the favourite

ASHADIHAN has Stall 1 which wouldn't be ideal

EASTON ANGEL deserves every consideration

BESHARAH - Has slightly better numbers and recent runs

Selection

BESHARAH 4/1

Each Way




Chepstow 2.45

My best negative is a non runner
There are now 7 runners spoiling an each way bet
It makes it harder to oppose horse drawn worst
That would have been Kylies Wild Card in stall 1
With 7 runners I can not use that argument
Marginally best on profile was Jaganory
With 7 runners I have lost interest in the race



Y o r k 3.40

3/1 Covert Love, 9/2 Curvy, 11/2 Jack Naylor
6/1 Lady Of Dubai, 13/2 Pleascach, 9/1 Sea Calisi
12/1 Crystal Zvezda, 16/1 Easter, 16/1 Miss Marjurie
20/1 Outstanding, 25/1 Lustrous.

Not one of my favourite races of the week
The statistics in the Yorkshire Oaks are bland.
My Breeding stats offer nothing clear
So I am leaving the race completely alone
Apart from one interesting Draw Statistic
Look at 12f races here with 8-17 runners since 2010
There were 57 of these races
Horses drawn 1 and 2 have a combined 0-102 record
Crystal Zvezda is therefore rejected drawn 1
COVERT LOVE drawn 2 would also be one to avoid
I'd have to guess between these five
Curvy - Jack Naylor - Pleascach -Lady Of Dubai -Sea Calisi

Selection

JACK NAYLOR 7/1 Each Way to half stakes

PLEASCACH 7/1 Win Bet to half stakes




Y o r k 4.20

9/2 Suffused, 6/1 Jordan Princess, 7/1 Dark Crusader
8/1 Bright Approach, 9/1 Desert Snow, 10/1 Koora, 10/1 Martlet
12/1 Shoal, 14/1 Hot Sauce, 14/1 Marsh Daisy, 14/1 Zamoura
16/1 Yarrow, 20/1 Melodious, 20/1 Urban Castle, 25/1 Amaze Me
25/1 Tea Blossom.

The Galtres Stakes is a 12f Listed race for fillies
This year it's probably in the "Too hard" caregory
In the 3.40om Preview I gave some draw Stats
Those draw stats would put me off these 2 horses
JORDAN PRINCESS - ZAMOURA
I am against the horses down in distance
YARROW and DARK CRUSADER fail this
MARSH DAISY is out as a seasonal debutant
DESERT SNOW is too exposed for 1 run this season
BRIGHT APPROACH - I don't want a 4yo with 1 run this year
TEA BLOSSOM was beaten too far last time
AMAZE ME was beaten too far last time
MELODIOUS is out of her depth
Horses from maidens over 11f or less are 0-11
KOORA and SHOAL have this problem
URBAN CASTLE is too exposed for me

Shortlist

SUFFUSED
MARTLET

Staked to £10

£4 Each Way MARTLET 9/1

£2 Win SUFFUSED 9/2




Chepstow 5.05

3/1 Alboretta, 4/1 Call It On, 6/1 Easydoesit, 13/2 Our Folly
8/1 Agreement, 10/1 Taste The Wine, 14/1 Jolly Roger
14/1 Moon Trip, 16/1 Fuzzy Logic, 16/1 Tijori
20/1 Eastern Magic, 33/1 Aaman.

This is a handicap over 2m 2f
I ran some breeding stats for stamina angles
The following horses failed these angles
EASYDOESIT - MOON TRIP
FUZZY LOGIC - AAMAN - TIJORI
If any of these win they'd be thier sires 1st winner at 17f +
This doesn't help much
ALBORETTA dominates the race
Hard to get a handle on her statistically
Only 1 3yo filly that won last time has ran in similar races
That horse did win
ALBORETTA should therefore be a positive
Not sure what I can oppose her with anyway
OUR FOLLY didn't convince me of his fitness
CALL IT ON could be worth considering
I would make sure I couldn't lose if ALBORETTA won
I would buy her out of the race through a split stake bet
Half on ALBORETTA and half on an alternative
I will leave the choice of that horse to you
But I'd want half my stake on ALBORETTA too




Stratford 5.15

4/1 Maid Of Tuscany, 9/2 Cabin Fever
5/1 Grams And Ounces, 7/1 Bells Of Castor, 8/1 Vexillum
10/1 Umoristic, 12/1 Mount Vesuvius, 12/1 Until The Man
14/1 Youm Jamil, 16/1 Descaro, 20/1 No No Cardinal
33/1 Aughcarra.

This is a 2m handicap hurdle

Look at every handicap hurdle in August under 2m 4f
Handicaps over 2m1f 2m2f 2m3f
Any class of race
Horses with under 4 hurdle runs were 0-70 in these races

BELLS OF CASTOR fails this and is opposed
CABIN FEVER fails this and is opposed
This pair are my statistical negatives
YOUM JAMIL - Breeding stats argue she lacks stamina
DESCARO is wrong hammered over 2m 7f last time
AUGHCARRA is surely not fit
UNTIL THE MAN is also out potentially lacking fitness
NO NO CARDINAL doesn't inspire me
Not disappointing over fences recently

UMORISTIC is 0-18 over hurdles
I can't rule him out but modest and hard to like

MOUNT VESUVIUS should be competitive
He is 0-24 though in fields of 8 or more

VEXILLUM has a recent run on the flat
That gets him shortlisted with a few mild other positivess

Shortlist

MAID OF TUSCANY is a 4yo filly
I passed her profile as fine. It was quite decent
Fillies aged 4 need 5 + hurdle runs and a recent run

GRAMS AND OUNCES is an exposed 8yo
There are a couple of similar winners absent 20-28 days

Selection

Staked to £10

£4 Each Way GRAMS AND OUNCES 11/2

£2 Win MAID OF TUSCANY 4/1




K i l l a r n e y 5.20

4/6 Creme De La, 5/1 Hot To The Touch, 13/2 Emily Square
12/1 Golden Malt, 14/1 Orotaveo, 16/1 Crafted Jewel
25/1 Palmones.

This is an 8f maiden
Hard to see many threats to CREME DE LA
Equally I don't want to commit to an odds on shot

My best negative is EMILY SQUARE
All the sires runners over 8f or more
With under 4 previous runs are 0-84
OROTAVEO is unraced and has to prove stamina
I don't think his father stayed this far as a 2yo
EMILY SQUARE could be a place lay (2 places) if short

I think HOT TO THE TOUCH can beat both the above
He should be the main danger to the favourite
There probably isn't a bet I can commit to

I'd like HOT TO THE TOUCH in a match bet with Emily Square




Chepstow 5.35

3/1 High Admiral, 4/1 Malekov, 9/2 Awaywiththegreys
10/1 Marengo, 12/1 Mr Rock 12/1 Pack Leader
16/1 Borak.

This is a 12f handicap for 0-85 rated horses

Chepstow All Aged Handicaps
August-September-October- November
Any Distance
Any Class of race
There are 210 of these races
Horses aged 3 won 36 of the 210 races
All 36 winners had at least 4 career starts
Those with under 4 career starts were 0-64
HIGH ADMIRAL fails this 0-64 statistic

MR ROCK has raced just twice this year
Well beaten last time and absence 6 weeks not for me
BORAK is 3 and well beaten last time
We don't want a 3yo hammered over shorter last time
BORAK has also just had a huge stable downgrade
PACK LEADER is 4 and well beaten last time
He has a weak profile and isn't running well
AWAYWITHTHEGREYS is 8 and absent 60 days
The longest absent 8yo to win was absent 43 days
He may pop up but it's hardly a safe profile
MALEKOV is very hard to read
His last few seasons have been racing in Dubai
He has since raced once in Britain last time out
That was his only race since last February
I couldn't bet him with 1 run in such a long time
He could be well handicapped and is a dark horse

I fancied LUCKY HENRY most
He is now a non runner

Selection

MALEKOV 100/30

Win Bet


H a m i l t o n 7.10

3/1 Lara Carbonara, 6/1 Card High, 6/1 Frightened Rabbit
6/1 Indian Giver, 8/1 Baileys Concerto, 8/1 Schmooze
12/1 Bogardus, 12/1 Triple Eight, 16/1 Deep Resolve
25/1 Geanie Mac, 25/1 Oriental Tiger, 33/1 Aryizad
33/1 Swampfire.

This is 12f handicap

I have to start with a Sire Stat
Horses sired by The Carbon Unit
Running over 10f or more
Have a 0-37 record
His sire did not seem to stay 12 furlongs in his career
The longest distance winner he has bred is 9f and 36 yards
LARA CARBONARA fails this statistic
Too much doubt over 12f to commit to him

BAILEYS CONCERTO has a strange hard to read profile
Not for me as a 9yo up from an 8f race
His draw in Stall 1 could be a problem
There are 11 handicaps here over 12f with 10 + runners
All 11 winners were drawn 4-11
Horses drawn 1-2-3 were 0-33
FRIGHTENED RABBIT isn't well drawn either
ARYIZAD is rejected with a massive absence
SWAMPFIRE is wrong from a selling hurdle

I can't find any other negatives
I still feel this is too open for comfort
I am forced to guess here

CARD HIGH each way at 7/1 is that guess
mainly because of a good recent run

****************************************************
****************************************************