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5 Races Discussed


Not the most friendly or familiar tracks today so
scraps have been hard to find. My angles point
me towards some competitive races today. I am
in no rush to find any bet. I am not trigger happy
and I'm just trying to relax into a good rhythm at
the moment and work myself back into top form.


Today's Bet

No Official Bet

This was never going to be a day that offered a
strong bet. We should play small and be patient.





T o d a y ' s M e s s a g e

I am planning a major revamp of the negatives column
I was going to do that today but just delaying that a bit
The message is due a bit of a shake up soon anyway
Nothing major but the clocks have gone back now
We are running out of Flat races
Racing is beginning to start earlier
I normally make message changes about this time
Negatives are top of the list of things likely to change


Before that onto today's racing
Most of the races are hostile and unfriendly
I am just going to have some target practice today
I'm interested in the first at Clonmel
I just feel I have a little squeak with this horse
Clonmel 1.55 - FOR PEDRO 8/1 Each Way
I wouldn't go much further than little squeak though


The message is dominated by big priced selections
I quite liked 2 Lingfield handicaps as well
I was drawn to some bigger priced horses


Lingfield 2.20

£3.50 Each Way Urban Castle 20/1

£3.00 Win Desert Snow 5/2

Desert Snow is far more likely to win
You could read just the staking if you wanted to


Lingfield 2.50

I quite like this staking
Chance of a big win
3 Savers all relatively cheap
If I get my two negatives right
We could get a result


Lingfield 2.50

£ 6 Win Lexington Times 14/1

£2 Win Big Whiskey 9/1

£1 Win Crazy Chic 8/1

£1 Win Miracle Of Medinah 11/1





T u e s d a y s S u m m a r y

No bet message. It was a bit of a muddle really.
Started with 2 superb negatives both unplaced
but neither were in races that we could exploit
without taking chances. I was probably correct
not to try and force a bet or take any silly risks.
This was a message where the main negatives
shone and the breeding stats performed but I
wasn't able to capitalise on all that good work.





D a i l y N e g a t i v e s

No Bet Today

Results of Negatives
20 correct bets from 24





P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s



C l o n m e l 1.55

9/4 Tongie, 5/2 Roman Gold, 5/1 Paddy Gunzales
7/1 For Pedro, 12/1 Fiddlers Bow, 12/1 Harry´s Place
20/1 Crack On Corrie, 20/1 Eglise Des Champs
20/1 Fintown Boy, 25/1 Westfield King, 33/1 Righty Rue.

This is a 2m Maiden Hurdle
The two form horses are not very safe

ROMAN GOLD drops down from 2m 4f
I looked at 5 year olds who did this
When having 1 hurdle run and a recent race
There was a disappointing 1-66 record
A few more did it aged 6 and 7
But 5 year olds like him were only 1-66

TONGIE is a seasonal debutant
He comes from hurdles and has 6 hurdle runs
There are a few seasonal debutant hurdlers win
None though from maiden hurdles wit so many runs
The implication being hhe has 6 tries at winning
He hasn't yet managed that which is a worry
Horses with his exact profile were 0-3

I can't make either negatives
But neither are they positives
PADDY GUNZALES has an unsafe profile

FOR PEDRO is like 1 winner
I'm taking the view he didn't stay 2m 4f last time
Ignore that run he still has a decent hurdle run before
Speculative - but I can't commit to the market leaders

Selection

FOR PEDRO 7/1

Each Way





S e d g e f i e l d 2.00

11/8 Western Breeze, 2/1 Russian Royale
9/2 Stoneham, 15/2 Hatton Springs
14/1 Our Phylli Vera.

This is a mares handicap hurdle over 2m 1f

If you look at inexperienced horses in these races
They do not score well
WESTERN BREEZE only has 2 runs
She has maiden hurdle form and an absence
I looked at every one of these races over any distance
A couple of weeks ago a horse called Presenting Lisa won
She was inexperienced but was reasonably similar
WESTERN BREEZE has 1 less run than her though
She is also running over a shorter distance
Her profile is unsafe and not very good
The problem is there is a tiny field
This includes and unfit OUR PHYLLI VERA
It includes 2 horses aged 4 and these under perform

RUSSIAN ROYALE seems the safest choice
You can argue 17f and ground softer than good
May not be ideal for a daughter of Royal Applause
Several have won though and this is a drop in class
She is fit and in form
She may have more substance to her profile than others
Lots to other little issues like the inexperienced jockey
Profile wise I was drawn more to her

HATTON SPRINGS could be a good saver
Was entitled to be a non stayer last time out

Selection

RUSSIAN ROYALE 3/1 Win Bet

HATTON SPRINGS 6/1 Saver Bet






L i n g f i e l d 2.20

3/1 California, 3/1 Sweeping Up, 4/1 Desert Snow
8/1 Alwilda, 12/1 Allumage, 12/1 Groovejet, 12/1 Urban Castle
16/1 Headline News, 16/1 Loaves And Fishes, 20/1 Twitch
25/1 Tingleo, 33/1 Siren´s Cove, 50/1 Monaleen.

This is a 1m 5f Listed race for fillies
Only 9 of these races at this time of year
I want to combine 3 different angles here

I want a lightly raced horse
Past winners had 6 2 4 6 9 7 8 5 9 career starts
I am prepared to go with a bit more experience
As several here are close enough to the norm

All past winners were rated 85 or higher
I want a horse proven to a level of at least 85

I'd prefer a horse that passes my breeding stats
I'd want sires breeding winners over this trip and class

GROOVEJET is too exposed with 18 runs
Fails my breeding stats and no winners came from 2m
ALWILDA has 23 runs and is too exposed
Coming down 6f in trip is another negative
HEADLINE NEWS is too exposed with 22 runs
I want horses rated 85 + like all past winners
MONALEEN - SIREN´S COVE fail this
TINGLEO - TWITCH fail this too

LOAVES AND FISHES fails my breeding stats
Oasis Dream hasn't bred a Class A winner over this far yet

I am accepting 12 runs of lower as fine

CALIFORNIA - 3 runs is acceptable
Not sure if I'd want her though with 3 runs from Stall 1
Her Sire is 0-6 with his runners over 1m 5f in this class
CALIFORNIA also comes from 10f
The only 2 past winners doing that had 6 or more runs
Could win but I sense a few holes in her profile

ALLUMAGE has a chance despite just 3 runs
Her last run ws a bit underwhelming
Drawn widest of all there are safer options

Shortlist

SWEEPING UP- Positives but last run in France
Makes her harder to rate

URBAN CASTLE - 12 runs is fine
Passes Breeding stats as well
Horses have won this many times with absences

DESERT SNOW is fine with 11 runs
Hard to see him being too far away

Selection

Split Stake Bet

£3.50 Each Way URBAN CASTLE 20/1

£3.00 Win DESERT SNOW 11/4





L i n g f i e l d 2.50

4/1 Hold Tight, 5/1 Crazy Chic,
7/1 Time Flies, 8/1 Big Whiskey, 10/1 Majestic Myles
10/1 The Rectifier, 14/1 Baltic Brave, 14/1 Dutiful Son
14/1 Lexington Times, 14/1 Santefisio
16/1 Miracle Of Medinah, 33/1 Field Of Dream.

This is a Class 2 handicap over 7f
There are 49 of these races in October - November
I am just following some angles here

All 49 winners had 6 or more runs
Those with under 6 runs were 0-42
HOLD TIGHT only has 1 career start
Drawn 13 with just 1 previous run he is rejected

October November December
Handicaps over 5f 6f 7f
Class 4 or higher
Horses aged 3
Winning maidens last time out
Under 5 career starts
There was a 0-25 record
HOLD TIGHT has this profile
His type do seem to win in races over 8f +
This is only a 7f race though
The shorter the distance the harder their task
He may get away with it at 7f but all 25 like him failed

All 49 winners had 6 or more runs
Those with under 6 runs were 0-42
TIME FLIES fails this 0-42 statistic
He's harder to read with 5 runs trained by a Genius
My main issue with him is one run since June
There were 13 winners aged 3 in the 49 races
They all had at least 2 runs in the last 90 days
TIME FLIES doesn't have that
His 49 day absence worries me as well
The 13 winners aged 3 all ran within 28 days
Horses aged 3 that were absent longer were 0-49
TIME FLIES also fails that and that puts me off
No 3yo came from a maiden like him anyway
Drawn 1 he is going to have to be rejected

In 49 similar races horses aged 7 or more are 1-101
SANTEFISIO is rejected as a 9yo with an absence
FIELD OF DREAM is rejected as a 8yo with an absence
THE RECTIFIER is rejected as a 8yo with an absence
MAJESTIC MYLES is 7 older than ideal
He also fails that 1-101 record and has little sand form

GREY MIRAGE is absent 209 days
That's twice as long as any of the 49 winners

BALTIC BRAVE is 4 and absent 51 days
The 4yo's defying similar absences were all lighter raced
The big field would worry me with him as well
Horses dropping from 8f races scored badly
None were aged 5 like DUTIFUL SON (0-26)


Shortlist

If you look at Course and Distance runs
LEXINGTON TIMES stands out on Racing Post Ratings

His numbers are 12lbs + better than the others
Doesn't mean a lot as not every horse has run here
But it shows He is very effective here and achieved the most

MIRACLE OF MEDINAH is an exposed 4yo
None of those won without a more recent run
I can forgive him that
He is very useful on his day

CRAZY CHIC is like one winner

BIG WHISKEY has a reasonable profile
Yet to win in this class yet
His last 2 Racing Post Ratings suggest he can

LEXINGTON TIMES has a squeak
He is 3 and rated 100
There were 2 winners aged 3 rated 100
They had 12 and 15 runs and raced within 3 weeks
LEXINGTON TIMES has 15 runs and does the same
The main worry is if he has had enough for the year
His last run didn't give me any concern
In fact he was entitled to have needed his last 2 runs

Selection

£ 7 Win LEXINGTON TIMES 14/1

£1 Win CRAZY CHIC 8/1

£1 Win BIG WHISKEY 9/1

£1 Win MIRACLE OF MEDINAH 11/1




S e d g e f i e l d 3.00

3/1 Woodford County, 100/30 Sun Cloud, 4/1 Royale Knight
6/1 Lackamon, 6/1 Twirling Magnet, 9/1 Finish The Story,
10/1 Pinerolo.

The Durham National is a 3m5f Handicap Chase
I ran some breeding stats and some angles
I didn't want a big preview with no 6 or 7 year olds
Especially when there are just 7 runners
I came down on the side of SUN CLOUD
He ticked most of the boxes in an open race

Selection

SUN CLOUD 4/1

Win Bet


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