0 Account Bet
0 Selection
1 Profile & Preview bets
10 Races Discussed


I can summarise this week as one where my
decisions have been poor. I'm hoping that's
about to change. Having no bet in Saturdays
message is about my best decision recently.

I feel far more comfortable with todays cards
with some fascinating international racing so
the message whilst touching on some racing
in England is dominated by Irish and French
racing and It feels a much superior message.


Todays Bet

Leopardstown 3.10

STELLAR GLOW 8/1

Each Way






P r o f i l e & P r e v i e w B e t s


I fancy a lot today. Too much in fact.

There is an argument for several bets today

These look some of the best


Longchamp 2.08 - Make Believe 4/1 Each Way


Killarney 2.20 - Sophie´s World 9/2 Each Way
(No Bet if the reserve Ballyoisin runs)


Leopardstown 3.10 - Stellar Glow 8/1 Each Way

The above are not the only horses I like
I think I could have added more to that list


I'm not in the sort of confident mood I would
want before advising several bets after what
has been a poor week. I would love to have
3 bets but I find it a worry after such a week.


SOPHIE'S WORLD is an option but there is
a reserve horse which could kill the bet if he
runs and he would be risky because of that.

STELLAR GLOW looks a great price to me
but a run 6 days ago when on heavy ground
is an issue I can't predict so he is risky too.

It's not just that though. Non Runners seem
to be a much bigger threat because of soft
heavy ground and they threaten to change
the frames of many races and their prices.

MAKE BELIEVE was the front runner for a
selection. I'm not sure whether I should be
on him each way or instead have a win bet
and saver on the favourite Highland Reel.

In the end I switched to Stellar Glow at 8/1.

Time has dictated I make a decision.

I like the message and almost all selections



D a i l y N e g a t i v e s


Grade 2 Negative

Leopardstown 3.10

Stormfly 5/4

If he stays he will probably win
At the price I am taking a chance he wont
There is a case for that on his breeding profile

Grade 1 Negatives 0 correct from 1
Grade 2 Negatives 4 correct from 4





T e n n i s

Madrid Open Tonight

Andy Murray 11/4 to beat Rafa Nadal

I have been making some dodgy decisions this
week and I hope this is not another one but I'm
quite keen on Andy Murray to beat Rafa Nadal in
the final of the Madrid Open tonight as I feel the
Spaniard is not yet convincing even on the Clay.

When we get to the French Open I think it will
be at the mercy of Novak Djokovic who surely
now will be too good for Nadal who has simply
looked a shadow of his former self. I won't be
at all surprised if Murray can defy the odds to
beat him over 3 sets tonight. My two strongest
ante post fancies this year are both tennis bets.

Novak Djokovic to win the French Open (Evens)
Petra Kvitova to win Wimbledon 5/1

Nice to see that having had a short break down
to needing a rest Petra Kvitova has just won in
impressive style in Madrid. That is a good sign.
She hammered Serena Williams in the semi final
and won the Final dropping just 3 games and in
my view she is the best player in the world. She
is still 9/2 for Wimbledon. It's my bet of the year.

The Djokovic / Kvitova decisions were made at
a time I was making very good decisions so not
as confident about Andy Murray tonight but he
looks quite good value to win tonight at 11/4.




S a t u r d a y s S u m m a r y

It was a miserable message and the only thing
I did right was to abandon plans to have a bet.
on the day. Didn't get a lot of luck and several
of the percentage bes just missed out but the
overall effort was very flat and like much of it
this week the Racing has got the better of me,




P r o f i l e & P r e v i e w s



L o n g c h a m p 2.08

7/2 Highland Reel, 4/1 Make Believe, 7/1 Karar
8/1 Muhaarar, 12/1 Maftool, 12/1 New Bay, 14/1 Tale Of Life
16/1 War Envoy, 20/1 Mr Owen, 20/1 Sir Andrew
20/1 Smaih, 25/1 Cornwallville, 25/1 Flaming Spear
25/1 The Comissioner, 33/1 Borsakov, 33/1 El Suizo
33/1 Mind That Boy, 40/1 Hawke.

* This is the French 2000 Guineas
* The Draw must be considered here
* Since 2011 there has been 54 races over 8f here
* Horses drawn 12 or higher have a 0-64 record
* High Draws have not won in years over course/distance

* This is a very compelling Draw Statistic
* Since 2011 there were 289 races at Longchamps
* That's 289 races at every distance from 5f to 2m 4f
* Horses drawn 13 or higher are only 1-134
* The only winner was Treve drawn 15 in the 2013 Arc
* That 1-134 record must mean we oppose high draws

* THE COMISSIONER - CORNWALLVILLE are badly drawn
* MUHAARAR has a horrible draw in Stall 18
* Brilliant in the Greenham but that is too much to ask
* NEW BAY is inexperienced and drawn badly in 16
* TALE OF LIFE is rejected with the same problem
* KARAR has Stall 13 and only 2 career starts

* Look at the past winners of this race
* They had the following career starts
* 5 5 4 6 4 8 4 3 5 4 6 4 7 8 6 4 5 4
* The least experienced winner had 3 runs
* The vast majority had 4-8 career starts
* I am opposing horses with 2 runs
* NEW BAY - KARAR - TALE OF LIFE already rejected
* MIND THAT BOY - HAWKE are too inexperienced
* FLAMING SPEAR is also short of runs
* WAR ENVOY looks too exposed with 10 runs
* No winner has won with more than 8 runs
* He is 0-9 since winning on his first ever start

* BORSAKOV doesn't have the numbers
* EL SUIZO needed more after 5 career starts
* MAFTOOL has been too busy this year
* He is not well drawn either
* MR OWEN is not well drawn and looks out of his depth
* SIR ANDREW could go well at a big price
* Hard to imagine there are not better options
* This is not a race for long absences
* SMAIH is hard top fancy absent 197 days

* HIGHLAND REEL also has a long absence
* He is favourite and clearly a high class prospect
* 284 days is a serious disadvantage to overcome
* HIGHLAND REEL also has just 3 career starts
* There was a winner that had 3 runs but he was lucky
* He won at 33/1 when his stablemate should have won
* Jamie Spencer messed the ride up and he was lucky
* 17 of the last 18 winners had more runs
* Clearly he could still win but he is far from safe
* Not with that absence and just 3 career starts

* MAKE BELIEVE could be the safer option
* He only 3 runs but a recent run and a good draw
* Having 3 runs can be forgiven
* The 3rd 5th and 6th favourites only have 2 runs
* The 4th favourite has a nightmare draw
* He should go very close to winning this

Selection

MAKE BELIEVE 4/1

Each Way





K i l l a r n e y 2.20

11/10 Karalee, 2/1 Sophie´s World, 10/1 St Peter´s Square
16/1 Finish In Style, 20/1 Free Scorpion, 20/1 My Matador
20/1 Open The Door, 25/1 Artists Daughter, 25/1 Crecora
25/1 Jeremy´s Jet, 25/1 Peace N´ Milan, 25/1 Show´s Over,
33/1 Lemon Sole, 33/1 Riverside Hero, 33/1 Taken
40/1 Bawnmore Lass, 50/1 A Minute To Go
50/1 Thessalienne.

This is a 4yo only hurdle
KARALEE is odds on
Willie Mullins and Rich Ricci so no real surprise
Two problems for me
In similar races horses with long absences struggle
Those absent more than 90 days were 0-49
I can overlook that as it is only a small sample size
KARALEE was only a cheap horse
If his sale price of 7000 euros is accurate and truthful
Then it would be far too risky a bet for me
I'd rather be on Sophie´s World to place.
SOPHIE´S WORLD is the same price to place
As the favourite is to win and I'd prefer that bet
There is also a case for an each way single

Selection

SOPHIE´S WORLD 4/1

Each Way

This bet is conditional on Ballyoisin not running
If the reserve Ballyoisin runs cancel the bet


P l u m p t o n 2.30

3/1 Flugzeug, 5/1 The Kings Assassin
6/1 Bridal Suite, 8/1 Canarbino Girl, 8/1 Lord Aldervale
10/1 Petite Fantasie, 10/1 Spanish Fork, 12/1 Conserve
16/1 Band Of Thunder, 16/1 Dexter Benjamin
16/1 Maccabees, 50/1 Curragh Dancer, 50/1 I´m Lucy.

This is a handicap hurdle over 3m 1f +

I do like FLUGZEUG who is a token choice
This race does look far too hard though
One statistic interests me

Yesterday I opposed a horse called It´ll Be Grand
I did that based on this statistic
Horses sired by Beat All
Running over 2m 5f or more on soft ground
So far all 73 that ran were beaten
We got that horse beaten easily at 3/1

Today in this race Canarbino Girl has the same sire
Must be a huge doubt about her staying 3m1f110y
Canarbino Girl could be a place lay around 2/1

Selection

Lay Canarbino Girl to Place in running at 2/1




K i l l a r n e y 2.50

3/1 Beau Et Sublime, 100/30 Louise Royale
9/2 Little Rocky, 9/2 Round Tower,
16/1 Hes Our Robin, 25/1 Encrypted Message
25/1 Instruct, 33/1 All Summer Long, 33/1 Pajomi
33/1 Staten Island 50/1 Madaboy Cross
66/1 Jet Mistress 100/1 Ellie Maguire
100/1 Fairy Field 100/1 Fugitive Motel.

This is a maiden hurdle.
BEAU ET SUBLIME ran 10 days ago beaten 69 lengths
Interesting to see him heavily backed despite that
I ran his profile in every novice/maiden hurdle in May
I can't resist seeing how many overcome huge recent defeats

Horses running within 11 days
Beaten 36 or more lengths last time out
There was a 9-502 record with these horses

Those aged 6 or more were 9-259
Those aged 4 or 5 were 0-243
Those aged 5 like BEAU ET SUBLIME were 0-143
My angles make him a negative
Obviously an unusual profile to consider
Normal rules can't fully apply to him
What he can not be though is a positive

Not too familiar with most of these
LOUISE ROYALE is a mare with an absence
I find the mares winning with long breaks
Were hurdling debutants and she is not
Not a safe enough profile for me

Negatives

BEAU ET SUBLIME - LOUISE ROYALE

Shortlist

These horses offer much safer profiles

LITTLE ROCKY
ROUND TOWER

1 Issue is whether LITTLE ROCKY is fit
I feel a split stake could be best

Selection

ROUND TOWER 11/2

Each Way




L e o p a r d s t o w n 3.10

5/4 Stormfly, 9/2 Stellar Glow, 5/1 Devonshire
8/1 Kissed By Angels, 8/1 Off Limits
14/1 Corail, 16/1 Plus Ca Change, 16/1 Red Ivy
33/1 Terracotta.

This is a 1000 Guineas Trial
It is Group race for 3 year olds over a mile

STORMFLY is the best horse on the Numbers
She is a warm 6/4 favourite and she deserves to be
Dangerous to oppose her but I feel I have to

In the English 2000 Guineas I opposed Estidhkaar
I did this on the following statistic

Look at Horses sired by Dark Angel
When running in Group races over 8f + all 28 lost
STORMFLY is sired by Dark Angel
None so far have won over a mile in Group Class
One may do it soon and it could be STORMFLY
This is heavy ground though and a mile
I can't bet her in light of that breeding statistic
STORMFLY is therefore opposed
I am looking for an each way alternative

If you look at races over 8f here with 9 + runners
Since 2008 there were 101 of these races
Horses drawn 1 had a 0-97 record in these races
OFF LIMITS has a horrible draw
A non runner has helped his draw


KISSED BY ANGELS has been well backed
Unbeaten O'Brien horse must be respected
My issue with her is just 1 career start
Recent winners had the following career runs
4 3 3 6 2 4 5 6 6 11 9 9 9 2 3 3 7 4 3 4
None of them had just 1 previous run
Without that precedent I prefer to look elsewhere
KISSED BY ANGELS is therefore not my choice
CORAIL is far from certain to stay 8f on heavy

DEVONSHIRE has a chance
My breeding stats are positive
He was only a 25/1 chance last time in another trial

I would give STELLAR GLOW a chance
Connections last year made some interesting comments
They said she would be at her best in a large field
Her 4 runs so far have been in small fields
STELLAR GLOW was 4th on her seasonal debut
That was against older horses though
I think she has a legitimate chance of taking this
If the favourite stats well she will probably win
There is a good chance she won't though

Selection

STELLAR GLOW 8/1

Each Way




L o n g c h a m p 3.15

7/4 Ervedya, 5/1 Mexican Gold, 8/1 Sainte Amarante
10/1 Ameenah, 12/1 Fontanelice, 14/1 Maimara
14/1 Penorka, 14/1 Queen Bee, 16/1 Soft Drink
20/1 Irish Rookie, 25/1 Bilissie, 33/1 Royal Razalma
66/1 Kenouska, 66/1 Qatar Dance.

* This is the French 2000 Guineas
* The Draw must be considered here
* Since 2011 there were 289 races at Longchamps
* That's 289 races at every distance from 5f to 2m 4f
* Horses drawn 13 or higher are only 1-134
* The only winner was Treve drawn 15 in the 2013 Arc
* That 1-134 record must mean we oppose high draws
* PENORKA and ROYAL RAZALMA are drawn too high

* ERVEDYA looks the class horse
* The main issue is whether Stall 12 is too high
* Stall 13 or higher would be a disastrous draw
* Stall 12 must be a worry at the very least

* The market danger is MEXICAN GOLD
* I would not see her safe with just 2 runs
* Past winners had the following runs
* 3 5 3 3 6 5 3 2 5 6 4 5 3 4 3 9
* Only 1 horse had 2 runs the unbeaten Darjina 2007
* MAIMARA is out with 2 runs

* QUEEN BEE is too exposed with 10 runs
* Her Numbers are going nowhere
* SOFT DRINK's numbers are too low
* IRISH ROOKIE - BILISSIE have the same proble,

Shortlist

* ERVEDYA - Stall 12 a serious worry

* FONTANELICE - I could argue against her
* Unplaced in 2 runs this year is hardly classic form
* Trainer is a genius though so I respect her

* SAINTE AMARANTE could be improving fast
* Well drawn. Has to prove she likes soft ground.

* AMEENAH has 5 runs and 1 this season
* That's the same profile as the 2009 winner
* I will give her the benefit of the doubt

Selection

AMEENAH 9/1

Each Way



L e o p a r d s t o w n 3.40

10/11 Success Days 6/4 Summaya
10/1 Cradle Mountain 33/1 Carbon Dating.

This is a 10f Group race
It is a Derby Trial
SUCCESS DAYS won a 10f Group race last time
In doing so he ticked a breeding box from his sire Jeremy
None by this sire had won over 10f + in Group races
I'm just not sure we can assume he will stay
It was only a 3 horse race
There was a very hot 1/4 favourite who flopped
I just don't want to select him on those grounds
I suppose another tiny field may help him get home
Until I'm convinced of his stamina I can't bet him
SUMMAYA is marginally preferred
She does stay and gets a fillies allowance
I can only guess but that would be my choice of bet

Selection

SUMMAYA 6/4

Win Bet




K i l l a r n e y 4.20

100/30 Abbey Lane, 7/2 Macnicholson, 5/1 Undressed
6/1 Lord Adare, 7/1 Give Me A Break, 8/1 Somethingwonderful
10/1 Bishopslough, 14/1 Liberty´s Gift, 20/1 Our Sox
20/1 Shamar, 25/1 Point Of Rescue, 33/1 Fruits Of Molly
33/1 Vic Approach, 40/1 Sunsetstorise, 100/1 Millstream Ned.

This is a Beginners Chase over 2m 1f
I've ran a few profiles and don't like two

ABBEY LANE is 10 and absent 119 days
Not a safe profile and I'd rather look elsewhere
GIVE ME A BREAK ran over 3 miles just 10 days ago
Not a profile I want and she is a mare
UNDRESSED looks unsafe as well

Much depends on how MACNICHOLSON runs
He has never ran over fences before
His profile is encouraging if he can jump




K i l l a r n e y 4.55

I wouldn't oppose FIVE O´CLOCK TEA
With a recent win over hurdles
He would appear to be very well handicapped over fences
Could be an each way double bet
I think we could squeeze one of those bets now

Selection

Killarney 4.55 - FIVE O´CLOCK TEA 7/4
Leopardstown 5.10 - KNOCKNAGREE 7/4

Each Way Double




L e o p a r d s t o w n 5.10

7/4 Knocknagree, 3/1 Bantry Bay, 6/1 Bondi Beach
6/1 Crossandra, 8/1 Barnacle Bill, 12/1 Sense Of Victory
14/1 Creative Talent, 16/1 Slaney River Run
20/1 Master Manipulator.

This is a 12f maiden

KNOCKNAGREE ran once last year over a mile
BANTRY BAY has never raced before
BONDI BEACH has never raced before

BANTRY BAY is trained by Aidan O'Brien
BONDI BEACH is trained by Aidan O'Brien

I've looked at his 12f maiden record with debutants
He has won one of these races (Venus De Milo)
His overall record is not impressive though

I would just prefer KNOCKNAGREE
I'd rather bet him in an each way double though

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