0 Account Bet
0 Selection
1 Profile & Preview bets
0 Negatives
7 Race Discussed


Today's Bet


Doncaster 2.20

MR QUICKSILVER 10/1 11/1 12/1

Each Way

12/1 Corals VC Spbet Betbright
11/1 Bet365 Stan J
10/1 Ladbrokes Skybet Tote Betfred PPower



It has been a very quite week so far which
was more by design than by accident. After
a brilliant run of form in July we had a very
poor bet last Saturday and I sensed it may
have been the end of that great run. This
week I've kept it tight with fewer bets and
I think my form has dipped a bit this week.

Sunday

Taking a couple of days off is the solution.
I just can't do that tomorrow. I have got to
do a Sunday message as I have ridiculous
angles in a couple of races tomorrow and
it looks to be a significant day. There is a
message Sunday and I do expect a bet.

I am going to have a bet today as well but
it is not an easy day. When your a bit stale
you can still have a winner as there is the
random chance of choosing the right bet
even from a message with fewer winners.

What being stale does affect is the vision
to see different opportunities and it takes
my imagination away leaving work average.
That said it may not matter tomorrow as it
is a day of good angles I've found already.
In terms of today It feels stale and limited.




T o d a y s M e s s a g e


There were only 2 options for a bet today


Doncaster 2.20

MR QUICKSILVER 10/1 11/1 12/1

Each Way


Goodwood 4.20

FOLKSWOOD 7/2

Each Way



FOLKSWOOD is obviously the most likely winner
You pay for that with the price though
It means betting each way under the odds
I am going to resist that today

MR QUICKSILVER 10/1

My angles love him
His profile is strangely good
I didn't see that as the only argument really
His purchase price is persuasive
I was impressed with his Sandown run
His numbers are fine
Overall the package is not bomb proof
Given the price I really don't mind that





D a i l y N e g a t i v e s

No Bet Today

The one option yesterday did get beaten as
expected but it was over 5/2 and I don't want
to have any negatives at big prices like that.
Thats why it was not an official negative.


Results of Negatives

17 correct bets from 19





F r i d a y s S u m m a r y

Yesterday was the second message in a row
without an advised bet. That was a sensible
decision. I liked Miners Lamp but was aware
he is a bit quirky and he finished 2nd when a
better ride might have got him home. I came
out looking at idiot in the Novelty bet at 4.10
but I feel something went wrong in the stalls
with Cardinal Sin and it caused him to miss
the break and run poorly. Montalcino placed
at a big price to rescue another mention but
the last race I highlighted lost. That was the
1 race I could have staked a bet in but it was
just a cause of too many positives here and
although we got that negative beaten there
was too much risk choosing the wrong one
and I did that so pleased I did not stake him.




P r o f i l e & P r e v i e w s


G o o d w o o d 2.00

8/1 Direct Times, 10/1 Fast Track, 10/1 Jan Van Hoof
10/1 Major Jack, 10/1 Rex Imperator, 10/1 The Hooded Claw
12/1 Charles Molson, 12/1 Golden Steps, 14/1 Barnet Fair
14/1 Canyari, 14/1 Indescribable, 14/1 Secretinthepark
14/1 Seeking Magic, 14/1 Shore Step, 14/1 Zanetto
16/1 Mubtaghaa, 20/1 Newton´s Law, 20/1 Vimy Ridge
25/1 Go Far, 25/1 Slip Sliding Away, 33/1 Brother Tiger
33/1 Lexi´s Hero, 33/1 Links Drive Lady, 33/1 Musicora
50/1 Arctic Feeling, 50/1 Holley Shiftwell, 50/1 Hoof It
50/1 Joey´s Destiny.

* This is a Stewards Cup consolation race
* Just a shortlist today in a race that's too hard
* My shortlists in this race have done very well
* Thats why it doesn't get kicked off the message

* No 3 year old has won this race (0-21)
* No horses aged 10 + have won this race
* All 30 fillies and mares that tried to win failed
* Horses aged 4 have a miserable 2-105 record
* Those absent more than a week were 0-74
* Avoid 4 year olds with 1-2-3 runs this season
* I would want at least 3 runs this season
* Ignore horses beaten 10 + lengths last time
* Horses from 5f want a run within 2 weeks
* Take out horses absent 6 weeks or more
* Ignore horses with under 13 career runs
* Horses aged 7 or more won 6 past renewals
* They all had at least 5 runs that season
* Horses aged 6 or more won 9 past renewals
* They all had at least 4 runs that season
* Last time out winners need a run within 2 weeks
* They also need to be aged 5 or 6
* These angles lead to the following shortlist

Shortlist

ZANETTO
BARNET FAIR
SHORE STEP




D o n c a s t e r 2.20

13/8 Koora, 2/1 Star Storm, 5/1 Mr Quicksilver
8/1 Blenheim Warrior, 10/1 Central Square
12/1 Bastille Day, 25/1 Dalamar, 25/1 Sigurd
33/1 Mr Pickwick, 40/1 Sant´elia, 50/1 Littlemissparton
66/1 Baler Boy, 100/1 Raffers.

This is a 10f maiden
There are 257 similar races in July and August

Overnight a big gamble on an unraced horse
CENTRAL SQUARE was being well backed very early
10/1 in the Racing Post and 5/2 in the early hours
He is an unraced son of Azamour
Just 10 days ago a horse called California won
He won a similar race on his racecourse debut
He is the only horse by his sire to do that
Unraced horses sired by Azamour
Running over 9f and more are now just 1-52
That record and this track just put me off a bit
He may well win - but all his rivals have experience

BLENHEIM WARRIOR wouldn't be my first choice

BASTILLE DAY could be a lively outsider
I don't fancy him much
He was sold for only £8k last winter

STAR STORM comes from a Listed race
5 winners came from Listed or Group races
Fillies won 5 of these races
Males like STAR STORM won just 1 race
That winner had fewer starts
Profile wise STAR STORM is a neutral
It is his draw that bothers me in Stall 1
35 races here since 2013 with 9 + runners
Horse drawn 1 or in the lowest stalls were 0-35


Shortlist

KOORA is a one raced filly
Acceptable profile without being strong
Some have won similar races but not this race
It's a big track and a test but her profile is ok

MR QUICKSILVER has a decent profile
Male horses from 10f maidens
Absent over a month and 4 career starts
Beaten under 10 lengths last time
Horses with this profile were 5-12
MR QUICKSILVER has the best profile

He looks one of 4-5 with a sound chance
MR QUICKSILVER cost £300k
Hasn't set the world alight yet
I think he went off far too fast at Sandown last time
He set a scorching pace and had them all in trouble
No surprise at all he faded back into second
That was still a Racing Post Rating of 82
Thats the second best number in this race
I don't think he was doing his best at Chester before that
The trainers last few runners finished 2 W 3 4 W W
This is the only horse he has sent to Doncaster today

Selection

MR QUICKSILVER 10/1 +

Each Way





G o o d w o o d 2.35

5/1 Dartmouth, 7/1 Senrima, 8/1 Barreesh
8/1 River Dart, 9/1 Novancia, 10/1 Melodious
11/1 Antiquarium, 14/1 Arcano Gold, 14/1 Polarisation,
20/1 Open The Red, 20/1 Yorkidding, 25/1 Martiniquaise.

* This is a 3yo handicap over 12f
* Too difficult a race for a lengthy preview
* I played around with some breeding stats
* And some race statistics as well
* Winners had 8 6 4 7 6 7 7 6 8 10 7 8 4 career starts
* The winner should have between 4 and 10 runs
* SENRIMA is not for me as the least experienced
* I thought one of 4 horses would win

* DARTMOUTH - ANTIQUARIUM
* BARREESH - YORKIDDING

* The problem with DARTMOUTH is the draw
* I'd rather keep away from the lowest 2 stalls
* He is improving fast though and may still win
* I see him more as a saver

Selection

BARREESH - Win Bet 8/1

DARTMOUTH - Saver 3/1





G a l w a y 2.40

6/4 Zafayan, 9/4 Tigris River, 13/2 Castle Guest
7/1 Akito, 14/1 Focussed, 14/1 Rocky Court, 16/1 Dylrow
16/1 Thomas Ledger, 25/1 Oighear Dubh, 33/1 Myamo

This is a 2m maiden hurdle
There are 226 similar races at this time of year
Not many will be able to win this race

ZAFAYAN ran here in a Novice hurdle 5 days ago
He was beaten 16 lengths though in that race
When I see a National Hunt horse by Acclamation
That has finished 3 2 2 2 2 in 5 hurdle starts
I have to question whether he truly stays
Especially when many of those runs were at short prices

I gave a statistic out 5 days ago
Horses sired by Acclamation
Running over hurdles
Running on soft or heavy ground are just 1-95
It was softer ground at the start of the week
The drying ground will improve his chance
Technically as it is "Yielding" he does not fail that stat
He was still beaten 16 lengths when only 11/8

Chances are ZAFAYAN will get home
Chances are he was beaten by a top class horse 5 days ago
I just have that nagging doubt about stamina

TIGRIS RIVER is the only market danger
Aidan O'Briens horse has an average profile
I looked at all similar races
Horses aged 4 with 1 hurdle run
There were 10 of these winners
Those however with under 9 lifetime starts just 4-127
Not a strong record but several of those were unfancied

ZAFAYAN has that extra experience
My problem is committing to ZAFAYAN
I don't feel 10/11 is appealing with that stamina doubt
Therefore I am going to switch to the O'Brien horse

Selection

TIGRIS RIVER 2/1

Win Bet



G o o d w o o d 3.45

6/1 Magical Memory, 7/1 Huntsmans Close
12/1 Discussiontofollow, 14/1 Ruwaiyan, 14/1 Tatlisu
14/1 Tropics, 16/1 Poyle Vinnie, 16/1 Related
20/1 Gamesome, 20/1 Greeb, 20/1 Lancelot Du Lac
20/1 Toofi, 25/1 Algar Lad, 25/1 Clear Spring
25/1 Dinkum Diamond, Firmdecisions 25/1 Kimberella
25/1 Ninjago, 25/1 Rivellino 25/1 Robot Boy 25/1 Ashpan Sam
25/1 Suzi´s Connoisseur 33/1 Another Wise Kid
33/1 Barracuda Boy, Basil Berry, 33/1 Boomerang Bob
33/1 Jack Dexter, 40/1 Ajjaadd.

It would be criminal to commit to this race
I think the 4 market leaders are all wrong

If you combine the Stewards Cup Statistics
And the statistics for the consolation race (Run at 2pm)
I then have 35 very similar 6f handicaps here
None of the market leaders match any winners

Horses aged 3 are only 1-68 in these 2 races
MAGICAL MEMORY has that to overcome
He is not like the only 3yo that won 15 years ago
Look at horses that come from 5f races
When having an absence of more than 2 weeks
In both of these races they have a 0-90 record
DISCUSSIONTOFOLLOW fails this statistic
If you look at male horses with 21 or more runs
Plenty of these won both of these 6f handicaps
None however with under 3 races that season
HUNTSMANS CLOSE only has 2 runs this season
He looks underaced to me and fails another stat
If you look at horses with 21 or more runs
Plenty of these won but all ran within 34 days
Those that did not had a 0-78 record
HUNTSMANS CLOSE fails that as well
RUWAIYAN also fails that absent 6 weeks

Therefore the 4 market leaders are negatives
I ran a few angles and came out with this shortlist

Algar Lad - Suzi's Connoisseur
Tatlisu - Poyle Vinnie - Related

No Selection



G o o d w o o d 4.20

11/4 Folkswood, 7/1 Hairdryer, 8/1 Mediciman
10/1 Bernie´s Boy, 10/1 Very Talented, 12/1 Equistar
12/1 Tigerwolf, 12/1 Yorkee Mo Sabee, 14/1 Beast Mode
16/1 Honiara, 16/1 Jarir, 20/1 Big Shoes, 20/1 Hawkerland
25/1 File Of Facts, 25/1 Mornington, 25/1 White Ensign
25/1 Wootton Vale, 33/1 Recognition.

This is a 7f maiden for 2 year olds
If you look at all 7f races here since 2011
You find unraced 2 year olds drawn 8 or higher are 0-113
VERY TALENTED and several outsiders fail this

If you look at every 7f races here since 2011
You find horses drawn 14 or higher have a 1-95 record
You do not want to be drawn very high here

I am against BERNIE´S BOY drawn 16
EQUISTAR will have his work cut own drawn 18
FILE OF FACTS is also rejected drawn 20
I would want a horse with experience
I think there are only 3 horses to consider

FOLKSWOOD = HAIRDRYER - MEDICIMAN

FOLKSWOOD ran a very nice debut run
He was said to have needed the run as well
I would expect some good improvement

HAIRDRYER has raced once before
He was odds on to win that race which is significant
MEDICIMAN was green and will improve for his debut
FOLKSWOOD persuades me more
He comes from a Grade 1 track
The other pair come from a lower grade track
FOLKSWOOD also has a clear edge on numbers
He is 8lbs clear on Racing Post Ratings
He also cost significantly more than the other pair

Selection

FOLKSWOOD 7/2

Each Way





G a l w a y 5.35

3/1 Breenainthemycra, 7/2 Dancing Noretta
6/1 One Cool Poet, 8/1 Dalasiri, 8/1 Sarwistan
10/1 Cristy´s Call, 10/1 Ebadani, 12/1 Eric The Grey
16/1 Acid, 16/1 Irish Reel, 20/1 Zero Euro.

This is a 0-80 handicap over 1m3f180y

I am going to take on BREENAINTHEMYCRA
Not many horses sired by Jeremy stay this far
Something that interested me about this
BREENAINTHEMYCRA has won over 11f and 70 yards
That win does show he stays this far
Or at least it would convince most people of that
My question is this
If you assume BREENAINTHEMYCRA stays 11f +
Can you be sure he can do it after an absence ?
Horse sired by Jeremy have won 7 races over 11f
That would convince many that they can stay 11f +
But if yo look at those doing it absent 35 + days
You find a 0-37 record with these horses
My view is they can and do stay
When they have other factors in their favour
One of these could be a recent run
I have a few days off in September
I am going to revisit all my breeding statistics
And look for new angles combing different factors
Like how many can stay certain trips after an absence
I think that will lead to many new angles
In terms of this race
I am going to assume he won't get home with 54 days off

There are a few others that don't look fit enough
EBADANI is unlikely to be fit enough
IRISH REEL has the same problem
DALASIRI has raced just once in 69 days
Coming from hurdles I wasn't convinced
ERIC THE GREY has an unsafe profile
ZERO EURO - I don't want a mare with 1 run since April
CRISTY´S CALL's turf numbers are not impressive
ACID is wrong aged 3 absent 75 days
SARWISTAN looks a dark horse but not for me
His 4 flat runs and some way short of what's required

Shortlist

DANCING NORETTA is a lightly raced 3yo filly
She was impressive enough last time out
I can find winners like her and she should go well

ONE COOL POET is interesting with a recent run

Selection

£7.50 Win ONE COOL POET 4/1

£2.50 Win DANCING NORETTA 3/1



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