0 Account Bet
0 Selection
1 Profile & Preview bet
3 Races Discussed


We are just about holding our own at the moment.
The staked bets are just outperforming messages
but both could do with stepping up a gear as there
has been a couple of less than impressive days so
far this week. Shorter message today to find some
consistency and rhythm which has been lacking.

My original plan was a main selection in Ireland at
Dundalk and leave it at that but I found something
very late in the day that shocked me and because
of that I am now downgrading the bet to a P&P bet.



P r o f i l e & P r e v i e w B e t s


Today's Bet

Dundalk 6.00

MASTER SPEAKER 3/1

Each Way

(Only 2 Places 1/4 the odds)


3/1 Bet365 Skybet Spber 888sport Corals







I decided to leave the National Hunt today and did
not see any race I wanted to preview at Doncaster.

Something quite surprising happened earlier
This bet was shaping up to be the a selection

Dundalk 6.00 - MASTER SPEAKER 7/2 Win Bet

I felt I had a lot of decent angles in the race which
suggested to me that MASTER SPEAKER had the
best chance. I had done 90% of the preview before
I found out completely to my surprise that we have
a trainer who has a 0-48 record on the Flat. This is
an Aidan O'Brien cast off. Looking at trainer stats
is some way down the list of things I check for but
when I did it left me a lot more worried about a bet.

It is highly unusual when dealing with races in this
sort of class that you come across a horse you like
that is trained by someone who has never had any
winner on the Flat before. That's spoilt this bet in
terms of him being staked so I am now going to go
only on the Profile & Preview account each way.

This can't now be a message I wanted which was
a main account winner used as a platform to go on
a winning run. We may still get that winner but it's
going to have to be on a lower account now. I am
going to pull out the stops for a stronger bet for
Saturday.





Service Changes

I forgot to mention the other day that following a
request to do so I am texting the P@P bets every
day free of charge to those on the text service.

The other change to the message is to run a new
seperate paragraph about the days negatives and
I hope to start that tomorrow and if not just after.




T h u r s d a y 's S u m m a r y

Losing P&P bet yesterday at Southwell and although
I got the negatives beaten I did not fancy the winner
and it wouldn't have mattered anyway as saver Sleet
and the main bet TRUST ME BOY finished unplaced.

Most likely explanation is a poor choice of bet so not
what I wanted. The message went L L W W L which is
average stuff. We had a winner Wednesday and loser
Thursday but the overall impression is the racing has
got the better of me in the last couple of days so I am
keen to keep things tight with the racing challenging.




P r o f i l e & P r e v i e w s



S a n d o w n 1.30

4/1 Spring Offensive, 5/1 Tom Hark, 11/2 Mutarakez
6/1 Shaakis, 6/1 Yeenaan, 7/1 Mukhayyam
15/2 Purple Rock, 10/1 Plymouth Sound
14/1 Mister Universe.

This is a 3yo handicap over a mile
11 past renewals of this race
20 similar races elsewhere
Recent winners had 4 2 3 2 1 2 4 3 4 runs
Every recent winner had under 5 runs
Recent winners had 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 runs this season
7 of the last 9 winners were seasonal debutants
Lightly raced seasonal debutants score best

MUKHAYYAM doesn't fit that ideal profile
5 runs as a 2yo is more than most
He has more weight than every past winner as well

MISTER UNIVERSE didn't do enough last time

YEENAAN comes from a 3yo handicap
2 winners did that and they had 5 and 8 runs
They also had 8st 9lbs or less weight
YEENAAN only has 4 runs and 9st 2lbs
That's not a close enough match to a winner

SPRING OFFENSIVE comes from a 3yo handicap
We know the 2 horses winning with this profile had 5 8 runs
With 4 runs he is 1 run short of ideal

SHAAKIS won a 3yo handicap last time
Horses doing this with 1 run this season were 0-8
SHAAKIS isn't like a winner and not the owners 1st string

PLYMOUTH SOUND - Not a negative but not quite right
There is also a stamina doubt in this class
Chances are he will need the run

Shortlist

MUTARAKEZ has 2 runs and races first time out
3 of the last 6 winners of this had that profile
None came via 7f maidens though as he does
Not a perfect match but respected
I'd rather not bet a Brian Meehan horse first time out

TOM HARK has run this year
Not a bad profile
Just 3lbs higher than the 2 winners with his profile
He has proven Sandown form
He should relish the uphill finish

PURPLE ROCK has 2 runs and races first time out
3 of the last 6 winners of this had that profile
None came via 7f maidens though as he does
Not a perfect match but respected

Selection

TOM HARK 5/1

Each Way






S a n d o w n 2.30

11/4 Shifting Power, 9/2 Bow Creek
5/1 Custom Cut, 5/1 Here Comes When
11/1 Top Notch Tonto, 20/1 Baltic Knight.

This is a Group 2 race over a mile.
There are several past seasonal debutant winners
None had more than 14 career starts though

TOP NOTCH TONTO fails that with 27 runs
CUSTOM CUT is a seasonal debutant with 37 races
None have won with more than 14 so he is unsafe
No 6yo has won this first time out
CUSTOM CAT has that to overcome as well

HERE COMES WHEN is a 5yo debutant and they are 1-18
You are far better off with a 4yo debutant in this race
HERE COMES WHEN may also want it softer
His trainer has always said he prefers softer ground

BALTIC KNIGHT didn't do enough last time
His sire's never had a Group class winner over 8f or more

Shortlist

SHIFTING POWER has a good profile
My worry is will he get up the hill
Look at horses sired by Compton Place
When running over a mile or more
Those racing in Class 2 or higher are just 1-59
None have won in Listed or Gradd races (0-12)
SHIFTING POWER has placed over 8f in Group class
He hasn't won though and this is a very stiff finish
I opposed him at Goodwood in August for the same reason
He was a 6/4 beaten favourite that day
He may not get a stiff mile in this class first time out

BOW CREEK is a seasonal debutant with 15 runs
I can forgive that as he is a 4yo
The 2013 winner was a 4yo debutant with 14 runs
Plenty to like my main worry is Stall 1
He will need to get out fast from Stall 1
If he doesn't he may have problems as a small horse
Two non runners have made this problem far easier

Selection

BOW CREEK 7/2

Win Bet




D u n d a l k 6.00

9/4 Chiclet, 3/1 Master Speaker
9/2 Fast In The Wind, 9/2 Zunera, 7/1 Mr Good Guy,
15/2 Strategic Heights

This is a 5f handicap for 0-89 rated horses
I have looked at every similar 5f handicap in April

6 runners in this race


MASTER SPEAKER is dominant on the numbers
He does face horses that will improve a lot
The issue is whether he can hold these off today
I think he probably should be able to do that

3 horses have long absences
ZUNERA
FAST IN THE WIND
MR GOOD GUY


MR GOOD GUY is a Diamond Green 4 year old
No strong statistical reason why he can't win
I will be surprised though and see others as safer
This sire has never bred a 5f winner beyond a 0-83 race
His runners aged 3 or more have won 4 races over 5f
None were in Class 3 or higher
I think he will find one or two too strong

ZUNERA is a 3yo filly with just 3 runs
I can't bet here when so inexperienced
Statistically nothing came close to her
She may be very smart but this is a big ask
I don't think she will cope against fitter elders

FAST IN THE WIND is 4 and absent 546 days
He had a stress fracture of the tibia as a 2 year old
It sounds a hideous profile but not necessarily
In 2006 a horse his age won absent 66 days with 3 runs
That was Desert Commander
He won off 78 in a 0-80 handicap
FAST IN THE WIND has to win off 88 in a 0-89 handicap
I don't fancy him to win but it is not a disastrous profile
I feel it is unlikely he will beat my selection
He was a smart 2yo and is well thought of so respect him

There are some breeding stats that interest me
FAST IN THE WIND is sired by Footstepsinthesand
Footstepsinthesand has sired 44 winners over 5f
These 44 winners all came in Class 4 or lower
This sires 5f runners in Class 2 or higher are 0-39
FAST IN THE WIND has this problem

Horses sired by Footstepsinthesand aged 3 +
These horses have had 14 winners over 5f
All 14 winners won in Class 4 or lower
Those that raced in Class 3 or higher were 0-33
FAST IN THE WIND has this problem
This tells me he could easily want 6f or 7f
His trainer did say he thought 6f would suit better

Whilst we look at breeding stats
STRATEGIC HEIGHTS is sired by Strategic Prince
This sire has bred 12 winners over 5f
None were as old as STRATEGIC HEIGHTS
None had won in Class 2 or higher
If you look at this sires 5f runners
He has bred a 5f winner in a 0-71 race (Strategic Heights)
He has bred a 5f winner in a 0-77 race (Strategic Heights)
None others managed it beyond a Class 5 race
STRATEGIC HEIGHTS is trying to win a 0-89
He was well behind Chiclet last time out
I don't see enough class to fancy him

CHICLET has a good chance
Won last time. Favourite Today. Respected
There are some mini angles she fails though
I looked at all similar races
I looked at 4yo fillies who won last time out
The only winners had 6 + runs that calendar year
CHICLET only has 1 run

Look at 4yo fillies from 5f races
When having over 8 career starts
There were 6 winners with this profile
2 were seasonal debutants
4 had at least 4 runs that season
None like CHICLET has just 1 run this season
The implication is there is some vulnerability there
CHICLET recorded a Racing Post Rating of 84 last time
That was a career best over the minimum distance
MASTER SPEAKER has achieved ratings of 96 97 99
I think he may beat her but she is a threat
She will have some improvement

MASTER SPEAKER has 2 runs this year
That's more than Chiclet
He has a shorter absence as well
Not many horses tried to win with his profile
Only 3 did this finishing 2 3 4 at decent prices
MASTER SPEAKER has pace and led 1f out last time
The drop to 5f away from soft ground will suit him
My biggest worry is the yard have never trained a flat winner
He has trainer jumpers and pointers
He has only has 12 flat runners that were fancied
Several have placed though
I see it more relevant that this horse has performed
He has twice run races that would win this race this year

Selection

MASTER SPEAKER 7/2

Win Bet

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