0 Account Bet
0 Selection
0 Profile & Preview bets
1 Negatives
8 Races Discussed

Far too many races and meetings to look at this
Friday in a tortuous schedule. I needed several
more hours. The message has not had a chance
to ferment properly. I've done what I can but I'm
a bit slower than I used to be and It shows when
we get 7 meetings so lets hope results are good.



P r o f i l e & P r e v i e w B e t s

No Official Bets today


Very difficult to choose a stand out bet today
Lots of the previews look steady not spectacular
I'm happy enough with most of the previews

I have gone with a Negative today in the 3.25pm
I have two reasons to oppose the favourite

I'd love to make my bet in this race

Trouble is I have to shortlist 4 horses
Three of these have neutral profiles
I have staked 3 of these in the preview
I'm still not sure I have the right combinations

Staked to £10 Stakes
£6.50 Win Postbag 6/1
£2.50 Win Zoella 3/1
£1 Win Volunteer Point 14/1

It's a dogs dinner of a staking plan
Volunteer Point does cause me problems
Weakest profile of the 4 that I shortlist
My Stats say No
I think he could go very close
I think he will place at 14/1 with a recent run
I was tempted to go with him
As long as I get the favourite beaten I'll be happy


I like the Cork 7.35pm as well
It is easier to win in Ireland in my view
I could easily make the 7.35pm favourite a negative
It was close but I decided to stay with just 1 negative

I've decided against any bets

Been a very heavy message to work through

Saturday - Sunday - Bank Holiday will also be heavy

My mind is not clear enough to predict my best bet

Lots of steady previews though worth some small bets

Lets have a Break before 3 important days




D a i l y N e g a t i v e s


Todays Negative

Goodwood 3.25

Luna Moon 15/8

Results of Negatives
8 correct bets from 10





F r i d a y s S u m m a r y

Two Bets yesterday and both placed. There was a
small profit from NIGEL´S DESTINY who came 3rd
and a small loss from LUCKY PAT. Overall a break
level day and not unhappy with the two bets. They
both looked like winning at one stage and neither
got in any trouble travelling well so happy enough.




P r o f i l e & P r e v i e w s



H a y d o c k 2.00

6/4 Life Less Ordinary, 5/1 More Mischief
13/2 All You, 13/2 Bletchley Park, 8/1 Borak
12/1 Comanche Chieftain, 12/1 Sunday Royal
14/1 Glorious Dancer, 14/1 Mythical City.

This is a 3yo handicap over 10f
There are 204 similar races in May

Just wonder whether to take on the favourite
LIFE LESS ORDINARY has a neutral profile
He is sired by Thewayyouare
I've mentioned a few times about this sires record
His record on sand is far better than his turf runners
Horses sired by Thewayyouare on grass are just 3-97
He has had 3 turf winners now all on Good-firm
The sires runners on Good or softer like today are 0-52
I'm going to try to get him beaten
LIFE LESS ORDINARY was only a cheap horse anyway
I don't fancy ALL YOU to win coming from a 7f race
That's a 3f rise in trip just 11 days ago
Horses coming from 7f in the past 3 weeks were 0-21
My guess is that if more had tried all would have lost
ALL YOU is not a horse I could bet
Haydock is a gruelling place for young horses
MORE MISCHIEF is a filly with just 2 runs
I looked at the 204 similar races
Fillies with under 3 career runs were just 1-25
That sole winner (Fine Threads) won first time out
I looked at fillies from 3yo maidens
There was a 3-114 record
Those coming from 9f or shorter were just 1-66
Fillies winning maidens last time were 0-21
MORE MISCHIEF fails both these angles and is out
COMANCHE CHIEFTAIN is not what I'm looking for
GLORIOUS DANCER is the wrong sort on the wrong ground
GLORIOUS DANCER has an average profile at best
MYTHICAL CITY is a filly thrashed over 12f last time
She has a weak profile and is not like any winners
BLETCHLEY PARK comes from a 10f maiden
His profile is one or the safest statistically
I am nervous when Richard Fahey owns his own horse
I went back 3 years to see what level of horse he owns
None achieved a Racing Post Rating of more than 81
He keeps modest horses he can not palm off on his owners
I'm saving despite that as his profile is fine

I like BORAK's chance in this race
His profile is solid and is entitled to improve

This is not a confident preview
I feel my other selections are a bit safer

Selection

BORAK 9/1 Each Way

BLETCHLEY PARK 9/1 Saver





Haydock 2.30

If I was having a bet in this race
It would be a Place Lay on Menai at 2/1
The sire is weak with 6f debutants



H a y d o c k 3.05

9/4 Ghalib, 11/4 Hope And Faith, 13/2 Scalzo
13/2 Use Your Filbert, 8/1 Collosium, 14/1 Caigemdar
16/1 Magh Meall, 16/1 Tecumseh, 25/1 Golden Spun
25/1 Mo Henry, 33/1 Honeysuckle Lil, 33/1 Koptoon
33/1 Straightothepoint.

This is a 3yo handicap over 6f
There are 174 similar races in May

HOPE AND FAITH is a filly with just 1 run
I don't want a profile like that on this track
No filly won any similar race with her profile
Haydock has 20 similar races in May
Fillies were only 2-85 in these races
Those with under 5 runs were 0-21
SCALZO won a 3yo maiden last time over 6f
I ran his exact profile with 2 runs and 1 this season
6 horses shared his profile coming 11 3 5 10 8 2
All 6 horses that failed were fancied
It's his draw that worries me most
If I look at races here over 6f with 10 or fewer races
Then you do get Stall 1 winners like SCALZO
However in fields of 11 or more runners
We have 50 of those races with 11 + runners since 2008
Horses drawn 1 or in the lowest stall were 0-50 in them
SCALZO leaves me cold on draw and profile
USE YOUR FILBERT has raced once last year
There was a winner that did that
He was a Godolphin horse winning a small field race
USE YOUR FILBERT has a far longer absence as well
Not the safest of profiles and not for me at Haydock
GOLDEN SPUN didn't do enough last time

COLLOSIUM is not like a winner
I would see him more like a Neutral though

CAIGEMDAR - I would keep her on side
She ran well from a bad draw at Chester
I thought her profile was acceptable

GHALIB has won both races this season
With a recent run he looks the solid option
The weight could be an issue but he should go close
His main rivals have significantly more to prove
Should at least be a saver despite the short price

Selection

CAIGEMDAR 8/1 Win Bet

GHALIB 2/1 Saver Bet




G o o d w o o d 3.25

7/4 Luna Moon, 4/1 Zoella, 9/2 Royal Silk, 5/1 Postbag
7/1 Fondly, 9/1 Volunteer Point, 14/1 On High
16/1 Lady Pinnacle, 20/1 Maybe Now Baby
25/1 Tongue Twista.

This is a 3yo handicap for fillies over a Mile
There are 40 of these races in May

I want to oppose LUNA MOON for two reasons

First of all it is stamina sired by Equiano
This sire has bred winners over 7f
He has a couple of winners over 7f and 100 yards
None have yet won beyond that
All 20 that tried failed and I question her stamina
Not convinced about the draw she has either
If you asked me what draw I would least like
It would be Stall 2 based on all mile races here

My other reason is LUNA MOON's profile
Look at the 40 similar races in May
Horses coming from 3yo handicaps
Coming from 7f or shorter
Remarkably all 57 horses that did that lost
LUNA MOON fails that 0-57 record
There is enough evidence to oppose her now

TONGUE TWISTA also fails that 0-57 record
I don't think she will stay either
FONDLY also fails that 0-57 record

ON HIGH didn't do enough last time
LADY PINNACLE needs too much improvement
MAYBE NOW BABY looks outclassed first time out

Possibles

ROYAL SILK is a seasonal debutant
Average profile. Can't rule her out
Not many positives and she may need the race

VOLUNTEER POINT ran in a Listed race last week
No winners came from pattern races as she does
Her profile is unorthodox and unsafe
I looked at every fillies handicap at every distance
Horses from Listed races this season were 0-17
I Still quite like her with a recent run
I'd also consider there are no positives in this race

ZOELLA has 1 career start winning 104 days ago
I have to make her a neutral here
Horses with 1 run had a 1-2 record
None tried to win absent more than 4 weeks
She looks simply a Neutral
Obviously the inexperience and weight could be an issue

POSTBAG won a 7f maiden last time
Horses with this profile were 1-9
That winner had 4 runs
POSTBAG only has 2 runs
Only 1 horse had her exact profile
That was a 16/1 outsider who lost
POSTBAG looks a neutral to me

Selection

Staked to £10 Stakes

£6.50 Win POSTBAG 6/1

£2.50 Win ZOELLA 3/1

£1 Win VOLUNTEER POINT 14/1





H a y d o c k 3.40

7/2 Handsome Dude, 7/2 Wanting, 4/1 Snap Shots
5/1 Miss Mullberry, 13/2 Appleberry, 13/2 Don´t Tell Annie
10/1 Something Lucky.

This is a 3yo handicap over 5f
HANDSOME DUDE has raced once this year
With just 3 runs beaten last time no winners were like him
SOMETHING LUCKY doesn't come out well either
DON´T TELL ANNIE is a filly absent 339 days
Seasonal debutant fillies are just 2-67
Those with under 8 runs were 0-47
DON´T TELL ANNIE is therefore rejected

If you look at 3 year olds sired by Kodiac
Their record on softer ground over 5f is poor
They have a 1-36 record he only winner in a 5 runner race
MISS MULLBERRY and SNAP SHOTS are by Kodiac
Both may just want a bit further
They both fail the following statistic
Fillies with 7 or more runs
Coming from 3yo handicaps over 5f
Running within the previous 3 weeks
Beaten in that race
Fillies with this profile had a 3-65 record
Those with 1-2 runs this season were 0-34
MISS MULLBERRY fails this 0-34 record
SNAP SHOTS fails this 0-34 record
APPLEBERRY is a filly from a Listed race
There are no winners with her profile
WANTING has by far the safest profile
Similar fillies had a 2-9 record

Selection

WANTING 7/2

Win Bet




B a t h 5.00

2/1 Glens Wobbly, 5/1 Eastern Magic, 6/1 Party Palace
13/2 Teide Peak, 8/1 Cameley Dawn, 10/1 Sebs Sensei
12/1 Petrify, 14/1 Birthday Guest, 14/1 Just Duchess
20/1 Crashing Thew Life.

This is a low grade handicap over 1m 5f
I looked at 81 similar races over 12f 13f 14f in May
There are 95 similar races in May

I don't feel many can win this

I have SEBS SENSEI down as a non stayer
PETRIFY may want another race this season
EASTERN MAGIC is an 8yo seasonal debutant
There must be serious fitness doubts about him
Look at his trainer Ben Case
I looked at all his flat runners
Those absent 8 or more weeks are 0-40
EASTERN MAGIC looks too risky
CRASHING THEW LIFE is badly drawn and poor
Fillies aged 4 absent over 3 months are 0-30
CAMELEY DAWN is unsafe as a 4yo filly absent 256 days
JUST DUCHESS doesn't come out well as an older mare
I wanted at least another run this season
BIRTHDAY GUEST is am exposed 6yo
His 69 day absence damages his profile
PARTY PALACE is a mare aged 11
No horse aged 11 or more won any of the 95 races
Coming from a hurdles race I feel she is unsafe

GLENS WOBBLY has to be respected
He doesn't have a bomb proof profile
Not as a 7yo absent 5 weeks
Not as a 7yo with just 1 run in 100 days
Factor in Topweight and a 7lbs claimer
GLENS WOBBLY begins to look unsafe

TEIDE PEAK has an acceptable profile
He looks one of the more reasonable e/w options

Selection

TEIDE PEAK 6/1

Each Way



G o o d w o o d 5.10

4/1 Major Jack, 9/2 Ashpan Sam, 11/2 Zanetto
6/1 Secretinthepark, 15/2 Humidor, 8/1 Ninjago
10/1 Ruwaiyan, 14/1 Slip Sliding Away, 16/1 York Glory
20/1 Deeds Not Words, 20/1 Smoothtalkinrascal
25/1 Elusivity.

Not enough time for this 6f handicap
ASHPAN SAM has a negative profile
HUMIDOR has a negative profile
SLIP SLIDING AWAY comes out badly
RUWAIYAN comes out badly

MAJOR JACK is an obvious player

NINJAGO is hard to red. Overall Positive.

ZANETTO ran at Newmarket 19 days ago
SECRETINTHEPARK ran at Newmarket 19 days ago
That's a very good trial race for this
The 2011 2012 2014 winners came from the same race

Selection

ZANETTO 9/2

Each Way




C o r k 7.35

8/11 Jacobean, 4/1 Ningxai, 6/1 Laffina, 14/1 Hushed Tones
14/1 K Rock, 16/1 Boost Buddy, 16/1 Walkabout, 20/1 Deor
20/1 Docali, 25/1 Ferguson, 25/1 Forever Scotland
25/1 Noble King, 50/1 Ballacolla, 50/1 Dazzle The Duel
50/1 Rusty Rebel, 50/1 War Anthem, 66/1 Bellaney In Motion
100/1 F B A House.

This is a 3yo maiden over a mile
JACOBEAN easily has the best form
You can argue he has been disappointing
He'd still win on his last Racing Post Rating
Statistically his problem is coming from 12f to 8f
April May June July
I looked at all 8f maidens during these months
Horses coming from 12f or longer
Running within the previous 3 weeks
All 44 horses that tried failed
He could still be capable of overcoming that
I couldn't risk a disappointing horse doing that at 10/11

NINGXAI is a similar price to Place
I'd rather bet NINGXAI to place than Jacobean to win

LAFFINA can not be ruled out either
Several once raced fillies from 2yo maidens have won
If you look at her DAM St Lucinda
She has produced 4 other siblings
All 4 managed Racing Post Ratings of 99 +
All 4 ended up running in Group races
She is from good stock and could be the bet

Selection

LAFFINA 6/1

Each Way


****************************************************
****************************************************