0 Account Bet
0 Selection
1 Ante Post Profile & Preview bet
0 Negatives
0 Race Discussed


This will not be a normal Sunday message
as we have have a Bank holiday tomorrow.
The Saturday and Monday messages take
priority and the Sunday gets squeezed out.
Only a quiet message today.


Today's Bet


Ante Post Bet

Saturday September 12th

Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes

MR SINGH 6/1

Each Way

Generally 6/1 with all firms bar two
Corals and Hills are just 11/2






T o d a y s M e s s a g e


One Main preview today

There are a few other races dotted around that are
not previews - more conclusions that might have been.

There is a Football bet I've been tempted by
There is a BBC Sports Personality of the year opinion
There is a short piece on today's St Leger bet as well



Today's Preview

Goodwood 3.40

UNISON 4/1

Each Way

This is the selection in the main preview
I could have staked it as a small Bet
I decided not to do that
I would rather Stake the Leger Bet






Football

Swansea 5/2 to beat Manchester Unnited

First thing to say is I have backed Swansea today
to win the 4pm kick off later. I have also saved on
a 0-0 draw at 10/1. Swansea are 3.6 on Betfair and
and I think that is reasonable for the home side.



Ante Post

Saturday September 12th

Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes

MR SINGH 6/1

Each Way

I am putting my St Leger bet on the account
today. I sent a preview a few days ago which
pointed to MR SINGH and I feel it is time to
get him on the account. The race is down to
12 runners right now. I want to get the price
now because things could change quickly.

Sumbal runs in France today so he may not run
Aidan O' Brien still has 6 of the 12 runners left
He will probably take out 2 or 3 of those as well
I don't think he will run 5th fav Field of Athenry
7 of the 12 runners are 33/1 and more anyway
I'd just rather have him on the account right now



Sports Bet

BBC Sports Personality of the Year

Jessica Ennis-Hill 6/4

As ever there are few that can win this and it
does not always go to the deserving person.
I would argue Chris Froome deserves it with
his Tour De France achievement but he may
miss out again as he has done before. He is
not as widely popular as Ennis-Hill and does
not appear the natural choice for the award.

Jessica Ennis-Hill has been 3rd 3rd and 2nd
in this recently and I think the writing is now
on the wall for this poster girl winner who is
free from controversy unlike several others.

The price doesn't matter really but I suspect
nearer the time she will be far shorter and
my view is desite a volatile event she is so
likely to win this. This is not on any account.





D a i l y N e g a t i v e s

No Negatives Today

Results of Negatives

20 correct bets from 24




S a t u r d a y s S u m m a r y

Much better yesterday. It had been a sluggish
week and I did not snap into life until Friday's
each way second and yesterday we managed
a very easy winner and combined it with a big
winning message. The earlier results went so
well we would not have deserved a loser but
thankfully KALOPSIA hacked up. Opposing all
horses from these Racing clubs or syndicates
is sensible. Occasionally it does cost winners
but it is a very good principle as the reasons
to do this make sense. They may be great fun
to be members of and I have no problem with
the idea of them But I don't allow these types
of horse on the accounts. That policy helped
to stake KALOPSIA who won just as he liked.

The message went W P W P L L W L W which
given some decent prices was excellent. My
performance earlier in the week was abysmal
but this cost us No losers and I know exactly
why I could not raise a gallop before Friday.
I was mentally tired and doing this work you
have to be fresh because applying statistics
requires imagination and clear thinking. I'd
done two long stints and probably had only
about 2 - 3 days off in the previous 3 weeks
and only started to feel fresh by this Friday.



P r o f i l e & P r e v i e w s


Goodwood 2.00

4/6 Skeaping, 5/1 Thanksfortellingme, 7/1 Dark Avenue
7/1 Hygrove Percy, 7/1 Kismet Hardy, 66/1 Ede´s The Mover
66/1 Prosperitee.

SKEAPING will probably win
Only just scrapes through on breeding stats
Interesting to see who stays 8f on soft as a 2yo

One outsider interested me
HYGROVE PERCY
Normally I'd assume he would need the run
He comes out best on my breeding angles
If I look at his trainers unraced 2yo's at 8f
It is very good when they run in small fields
Maybe that is meaningless as an angle
What it does show is you can't assume he wont be fit
Small stakes all the way here especially with 7 runners
I may try and use HYGROVE PERCY in Novelty markets

HYGROVE PERCY

"Without the favourite" at 7/2 could be the right bet




Cork 2.25

I was considering a split stake bet
1st and 3rd favourites
Roconga - Half stakes to win 10/11
Pashtunwali - Half stakes to win 7/1
Based on the chance the 2nd fav may not stay




Goodwood 2.30

5/4 Solstalla, 4/1 Sonic Rainbow, 4/1 Western Playboy
12/1 Reigning, 14/1 Activation, 16/1 Noble Master
16/1 Silence In Court.

I do like this 11f seller
SOLSTALLA 5/4 could be an banker
If it was trained by almost any other trainer
Then I would be really strong on him
I do Not commit to Willie Jarvis runners
That's the main reason I haven't previewed the race
I am fascinated to see which horses stay
How my Breeding stats work out here
They predict the following horses wont stay
SONIC RAINBOW - ACTIVATION
SILENCE IN COURT is a negative from a 6f race
You do not want a 3yo with an absence
REIGNING has this from a horrible stable
NOBLE MASTER is very hard to fancy
This leaves

SOLSTALLA
WESTERN PLAYBOY

WESTERN PLAYBOY has a 0-17 career record
Not too bothered about that
I don't like his stable but stamina worries me

Horses sired by Kodiac
Running over 11f or more
Running on Good to Soft or Worse
There was a 1-27 record with these horses

That winner (Anginola) should not count really
This was the Racing Post Analysis in that race

" They went no pace in this weak seller and the
time was by some margin the slowest of 176 races
over C&D since 2005."

It wasn't a proper test
There is a definite stamina doubt with him

I think SOLSTALLA should win
But I don't want to rely on his trainer
WESTERN PLAYBOY may not stay on paper
But there may be no pace in this race
Half the field won't want a fast pace anyway
He may end up staying by default

I was tempted by the Split Stake Bet
Half Stakes on both horses
In the end I decided to go for an Exacta

Exacta

SOLSTALLA
WESTERN PLAYBOY

This means they need to be 1st and 2nd in any order





G o o d w o o d 3.40

4/1 Unison, 11/2 Party Royal, 6/1 Berkeley Vale
7/1 Lu´s Buddy, 8/1 Dark Amber, 8/1 Grey Gem
9/1 Automotive, 10/1 Evervescent, 12/1 Clovelly Bay
12/1 The Gay Cavalier, 14/1 Bloodsweatandtears
16/1 Kubeba.

This is am Amateur Riders race over 9f
There are about 144 similar races at this time of year


Racing Post Ratings
Ratings in 8f 9f 10f races
Good to Soft or Softer
Since 2014

83 Unison
82 Unison
77 Unison - Party Royal
76 Evervescent
74 The Gay Cavalier - Unison
73 Evervescent
72 Lu´s Buddy

CLOVELLY BAY fails my breeding angles
I don't think he will get home in the ground
You want a fit horse not a seasonal debutant
EVERVESCENT also fails my breeding stats
No horse by Elnadin has won over 9f + on soft
I think he is short of runs this year as well
KUBEBA is far from certain to stay this far on soft
Profile is unappealing and looks short of recent races
BLOODSWEATANDTEARS is underraced this season
GREY GEM was well beaten over 12f last time
Not a strong profile and he hasn't run over 8f-10f before
BERKELEY VALE may not get home over this far
His sire has yet to breed a winner over 9f + on soft
Not keen on his absence and see him as vulnerable
He's just been put up 4lbs for losing as well

LU´S BUDDY may not get home in this ground
Not impressive breeding stats
He was well beaten last time out
I can't find a similar 4yo overcoming a bad defeat
Not enough positives to be interesting

THE GAY CAVALIER wouldn't be first choice
I ran his profile as a 4yo male with 17 + runs
Running within 3 weeks and beaten over 5 lengths last time
I returned a 1-61 record with horses with this profile
That winner (Midnight Warrior) had far less weight
I wanted a better profile than that

DARK AMBER is a 5 year old mare
Female horses aged 5 with 16 + runs have a 2-63 record
Neither winner came from 10f races as she does
One ran far better than her last time out
Has a chance but her soft ground numbers are low

AUTOMOTIVE won this race in 2013
This year he is a 7yo coming from an 8f race
I can find a winner like him as he has a very recent run
AUTOMOTIVE is a positive
My main issues is his soft ground numbers are low

PARTY ROYAL is an exposed 5yo
Average profile at best without a recent run
Similar horses had a 1-27 record
The ground would worry me a little as well

UNISON is an exposed 5 year old up in distance
He comes from 8f and last ran 2-3 weeks ago
4 winners had his profile
All 4 were beaten under 3 lengths last time out
UNISON was beaten 4.5 lengths just a bit more
I see him as a positive not far away from 4 winners
He is also comfortably best on my Racing Post Ratings table

Selection

UNISON 4/1

Each Way


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