Unscheduled Message


I was not planning a message today but I did
get a bit more time than I thought last night
and saw a few races I wanted to cover so we
see an unexpected and unplanned message
today. I can't start throwing bets around with
nobody expecting a message or a bet as this
will cause too much disruption. So lets call it
a non committal practice message. I wouldn't
have bothered doing one unless I liked some
of the races today so I'm hopeful it's worth it.

Normal messages from tomorrow. I'm not too
confident I will have much on Friday given it
is a two meeting day and Lingfields card will
not suit me. Not much else to day other than
Nina Carberry rides First Lieutenant in this
months Grand National. Not sure how I feel
about it. No female rider has won it before
and as I like precedents that does worry me
but she's a good jockey and has ridden four
times in this race finishing on 3 occasions.
I'm trying to take a positive view as I do like
his chance and with 10 days to go this race
will start to get very interesting very soon.


Today's Best Bet

If you gave me a free bet today then this
is the bet that would interest me the most.

Wincanton 1.50 - She´s Da One 6/4
Kempton 6.15 - Jazzi Top 11/8

Each Way Double

I wouldn't have staked this on a normal day
but it's there for anyone wanting to bother



T u e s d a y s S u m m a r y

Yesterdays bet was a loser as we backed two
horses to win that finished 2nd and 3rd. Quite
an interesting race. Race readers suggested
that Major Rowan was unlucky but I don't feel
it made much difference. I was pleased to get
all the negatives beaten. I felt the winner was
there with a legitimate chance and got 1st run
on our horses. I think that both Major Rowan
and Candesta could be winning soon. I think
both ran with a lot of credit. Perhaps it could
have been staked more safely with one horse
advised each way. Always a difficult dilemma
between safety and capitalising profit and as
I felt there were up to 7 potential winners the
race wasn't a natural each way race.


P r o f i l e s a n d P r e v i e w s



W i n c a n t o n 1.50

11/8 She´s Da One, 7/4 Spellbound
11/4 Red Penny 25/1 Miss Serious
50/1 Sisterbrooke.

This is a 2m 6f Mares Novice Hurdle

My angle into this race could be stamina doubts
about Spellbound being sired by Doyen. This is
a sire who has struggled with his offspring when
racing over 2m 4f or further. So far they are 3-93
with all 3 winners in lower grade than this. Given
this is 2m 6f on a Grade 1 track there's a doubt it
could be a bit far for Spellbound. I would see this
as a race best left to one of two horses.

SHE´S DA ONE
RED PENNY

Purely on their profiles RED PENNY has the edge
SHE'S DA ONE has a far better trainer and jockey.

Selection

SHE'S DA ONE 6/4

Win Bet





W i n c a n t o n 2.20

6/4 Jimmy The Jetplane, 4/1 Buck Magic
6/1 Dancing Shadow, 8/1 Swallowshide, 9/1 Man Of Leisure
14/1 Kellys Brow, 14/1 Oscar Prairie, 14/1 Somerset Lias
16/1 Key To The West.

This is a 2m 6f handicap hurdle
JIMMY THE JETPLANE bolted up 10 days ago
That was a Class 3 race similar to this
It was the first Class 3 race any horse sired by Jimble had
Jimble has sired 26 individual winners
25 of these came in Class 4 or lower
This suggests limitations to me
This is backed up by Racing Post & official Ratings
One or two smart horses by the sire but none top class
None broke a Racing Post Rating of more than 142
This is a Limited sire who has never bred a top class horse
JIMMY THE JETPLANE could easily still win
He's entitled to on his win last time
I just don't think it's sensible to take a short price
Not when it's clear there could be class limitations
There is a case to go with BUCK MAGIC each way
He was favourite in a Class 2 Chase last time
He fell at the 4th which obviously isn't ideal
BUCK MAGIC has achieved the most of the pair
He could easily be a very good each way bet

Selection

BUCK MAGIC 4/1

Each Way



T o w c e s t e r 3.10

7/4 Always Managing, 5/2 Aces Over Eights
5/1 Diamond Gesture, 6/1 Monbeg Dolly, 9/1 Tara Dove
20/1 Passing Fiesta, 20/1 Weston Flame
25/1 Loves Destination, 25/1 Rising Teal, 40/1 Overdo
50/1 Sea Of Cortez, 66/1 Born To Be Free
100/1 Spicy Lady.

This is a 2m mares maiden hurdle
Small sample size of races so not much I can do
Not looking for a horse with just 1 hurdle run
The odd winner has won with just 1 run
However look at 5 year olds in these races
When having under 3 hurdle starts they are 0-35
MONBEG DOLLY has this to overcome
DIAMOND GESTURE is 0-14 over hurdles
She was beaten 19 lengths only 9 days ago
That was her first race in 6 months
Not comfortable she is coming back so quickly
ACES OVER EIGHTS has a chance on the numbers
ALWAYS MANAGING would just shade it for me
Better stable and more momentum than her rival

Selection

ALWAYS MANAGING 6/4


Anyone wanting to have an each way double at
short prices may like to consider this horse and
My selection in the Kempton 6.15 for such a bet.

Towcester 3.10 - Always Managing 6/4
Kempton 6.15 - Jazzi Top 6/4

Each Way Double




K e m p t o n 6.15

11/8 Hundi, 5/2 Jazzi Top, 6/1 Jasmine Blue
6/1 June, 12/1 Persiflage, 14/1 Kipuka, 14/1 La Superba
20/1 Ktclouseau, 25/1 Devonshire Place
100/1 Chanson De Marins.

This is a mile maiden for fillies
Not keen on HUNDI's profile
She comes from a 6f maiden last season
Horses from 6f races were 3-77
Those with 2 or more career runs like her were 1-38
None like her had raced 4 or more times
HUNDI's profile is unsafe
She was expensive but she is only a small filly
At least she was last year and that puts me off a bit
JAZZI TOP may be able to beat her
She is well related and should improve this year
Her connections often said she would be better as a 3yo
JAZZI TOP is from a family that improve with age
I prefer JAZZI TOP to HUNDI
I like one more thing about her
JAZZI TOP is over 3 months older than HUNDI
Early in their 3yo careers that could be a big help
The others don't offer strong enough profiles
One could pop up but I much prefer JAZZI TOP

Selection

JAZZI TOP 6/4


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