0 Account Bet
0 Selection
3 Profiles/Preview bets
4 Races Discussed



First thing to say is that although there will be
a message tomorrow it will be threadbare and
not contain any previews or analysis. It's best
seen as a day off unless I see something I can
not resist. I feel like I need to stop for a day as
I overslept this morning and I am just starting
to get behind schedule now. I will return to the
account on Saturday and the extra time saved
tomorrow will help a lot. Today's message has
4 previews 1 of which I do not want to commit
to. Only the 3 Profile and Preview bets today.



Profiles and Previews Selections


Southwell 2.10 - Thorpe Bay 11/4 Win Bet
Southwell 2.10 - Rambo Will 9/2 Saver


Southwell 2.40 - Powerfulstorm 11/1 Win Bet
Southwell 2.40 - Excelling Oscar 4/1 Saver


Gowran Park 3.15

Goonyella 11/1 Half Stakes Each Way

Groody Hill 11/1 Half Stakes Each Way


If I was staking the 2.10 race to £10 stakes it would
be £8 THORPE BAY and £2 Rambo Will. Assuming
a £10 stake on all 3 selections that means that if we
can get THORPE BAY home we can't lose over the
three bets. I personally prefer the Irish race myself.

The preview explains the 2.40pm selection has lots
of risk attached. It may not be well staked too and I
to be honest this looks quite an ambitious selection.

I prefer the GOONYELLA and GROODY HILL race.

Staking £10 in this race

£2.50 Each Way GOONYELLA 11/1
£2.50 Each Way GROODY HILL 11/1

There are 4 places
A Quarter the odds a Place
If just one finishes 1-2-3-4 there will be no damage
I'd happily take 10/1 or better about either

Statistically these 2 and GALLANT OSCAR are best
I could have gone for 3 horses in this race
£4 Win on both Goonyella and Groody Hill
£2 Saver on Gallant Oscar at 9/2
I prefer to try and take advantage of 4 places





F r i d a y s P l a n s

Unlikely to have any bets

No Analysis

One Paragraph only

I am basically taking Friday off as I need to stop
for a day and it will help with Saturdays message.
I am just going to send a very short message at
11.30am. It will probably confirm no bet. It will be
very short. No previews. May not even have any
horses in it. I would rather do that than say that
there is no message right now as this gives me
a Window of opportunity to spot something and
have a bet if we want to. The field sizes are small
tomorrow anyway and it looks limited. I think It's
time to break so only a microscopic mail Friday.




W e d n e s d a y 's S u m m a r y

Good solid message not least because both the
Lingfield horses won. These two bets were very
clear and unambiguous and won easily. My two
earlier bets were far messier. The Split Stake bet
did little damage and we got the negative beaten
but the price on the favourite collapsed a bit and
it wasn't worth the effort to have the a bet. It was
annoying to see my danger and potential saver
win the Irish race. Credit to my statistics here as
they have been brilliant once again but I did not
use him as a saver as the price on my selection
went too low. Officially a P L W W message and
I was pleased with that and reading things well.


P r o f i l e s a n d P r e v i e w s



S o u t h w e l l 2.10

4/1 Thorpe Bay, 9/2 Rambo Will, 13/2 Clubland
13/2 Incomparable 13/2 Lucky Times,
9/1 Bapak Bangsawan 16/1 Fortinbrass
16/1 Foxtrot Jubilee 25/1 Alpha Tauri.

* This is a 0-75 handicap over 5f
* January has 234 similar races
* INCOMPARABLE is 10 and won a 0-65 last time
* This is harder. He lacks a very recent race.
* I will be surprised if he can win this up in class
* Since Spring 2011 his best Racing Post Ratings 68
* Many of these have beaten that last time out
* I don't see him being good enough
* FORTINBRASS is out absent 352 days
* FOXTROT JUBILEE has holes in his profile
* Not least never having run at Southwell before
* It's been 15 months since he ran over 5f as well
* I couldn't match him to a winner
* BAPAK BANGSAWAN isn't showing me enough
* Not keen he downgraded stables recently as well
* Statistically he is Not a negative
* LUCKY TIMES is a lightly raced 4yo filly
* Bothers me she has just 1 run in 86 days
* All similar horses had far more recent runs
* I'm failing her on her lack of recent runs
* She also has a difficult draw
* CLUBLAND's profile is acceptable
* Nothing strong about it but not a negative
* Quite a while since one of his 5f runs would win this

Shortlist

Racing Post Ratings
5f Southwell
Past 12 Months

80 Rambo Will
79 Thorpe Bay - Bapak Bangsawan - Alpha Tauri
78 Thorpe Bay
77 Alpha Tauri
76 Rambo Will
75 Bapak Bangsawan
74 Rambo Will
70 Lucky Times
68 Incomparable
65 Incomparable
65 Bapak Bangsawan


* ALPHA TAURI was beaten 16 lengths 9 days ago
* All horses beaten 10 + lengths in the last 2 weeks are 0-28
* ALPHA TAURI has a poor profile
* That said excuses on his last two runs
* Outclassed from an impossible draw last time
* Not fit on his previous run
* He has won after a bad run before
* I don't fancy him and his profile isn't good enough
* I just think there is a case for him on the numbers

Selection

* RAMBO WILL won this last year
* He was a 6yo then and absent 37 days
* Now he is a 7yo absent 37 days
* I can find a few 7yo winners absent that long
* Most won at other tracks though
* One did win at Southwell but came from a better grade
* It's definitely not a negative profile though

* THORPE BAY won a 5f seller last time
* On paper it was as good as many handicaps
* With a recent run he is a positive

I think both of these have chances
They top my Ratings table
One needs to be a saver
Thorpe Bay does had the fitness edge though

Selection

THORPE BAY 3/1 Win Bet

RAMBO WILL 9/2 Saver





W a r w i c k 2.20

100/30 Bally Braes, 7/2 Goodtoknow
9/2 Take The Mick, 5/1 Safran De Cotte, 8/1 Jimmy Shan
9/1 Ballyvoneen, 9/1 Time To Think
10/1 Spanish Arch.

* This is a 3m 2f Handicap Chase
* January has 154 similar races
* Thats 154 Handicap Chases over 3m 1f - 3m 3f

* TAKE THE MICK has things against him
* He only has 1 run this season
* Far from sure he will get the trip with just 1 run
* He's sired by Ishiguru not a stamina laden sire
* The sires runners over 2m 6f and more are 1-23
* None have yet won over this far
* TAKE THE MICK has won at 3m on Heavy
* He's the sires only winner so far over 3m or more
* Given 1 run this year I can't trust him to stay
* Look at horses with 1 run this season
* Those with 12 or more Chase runs are just 1-72
* TIME TO THINK with 15 Chase runs fails that
* My angles say she is too exposed to overcome it
* She is also a mare and fails my angles
* BALLY BRAES won a Novice Handicap Chase
* There were 5 winners that did that
* These 5 had 5 4 4 4 7 previous Chase runs
* Those with under 4 Chase starts doing this were 0-5
* They were 3rd PU FELL PU PU all 5 were fancied
* BALLY BRAES has just 2 Chase starts
* Thats 2 chases short of any past winner like him
* He fails my angles albeit from a small sample size
* JIMMY SHAN has raced just once over fences
* He pulled up in that race and looks inexperienced
* SPANISH ARCH has poor recent runs and looks wrong

Shortlist

* BALLYVONEEN is a very exposed 10 year old
* He comes from a 3m 5f race
* Not a safe profile but not a negative

* GOODTOKNOW is 7 and comes from 2m 4f
* 3 winners aged 7 did this
* They had 6 4 9 previous Chase runs
* GOODTOKNOW has 8 which is not too bad
* Last time out was his 2nd run this year
* He fell at the 1st fence on his seasonal debut
* That means he has really had just 1 run this year
* That worries me with topweight
* He is lightly raced though so I still say Positive

* SAFRAN DE COTTE would win on his best form
* His 2 runs this season were very poor though
* This is a nice drop in class but he feels unsafe
* Betting him means trusting him to deliver
* Impossible to know if he will do that or not
* No surprise if he does but should he be favourite ?

I'm going to bail out here

No Advised bet or selection






S o u t h w e l l 2.40

2/1 Captain Future, 100/30 Pancake Day
9/2 Excelling Oscar, 11/2 Alderaan, 10/1 Junior Ben
12/1 Powerfulstorm, 20/1 Misu Pete, 28/1 Prince Rofan

* This is a 3yo handicap over 6f
* January has 48 similar races
* ALDERAAN is a filly with 1 run since July
* I don't think she will be fit enough to win
* She fails another angle later on as well
* PRINCE ROFAN has raced once since August
* I don't see him as fit enough either
* MISU PETE hasn't achieved enough yet

* CAPTAIN FUTURE comes from a 5f race
* With just 4 runs that's not a safe profile
* Look at horses from 5f handicaps
* Those that run within the past month
* Those that had under 7 career starts are 0-17
* CAPTAIN FUTURE fails that and is not safe for me

* JUNIOR BEN comes from a 5f handicap
* Looked at similar horses with 7-8-9 runs
* The winners like him all ran far better than him last time
* My angles say he didn't do enough last time
* His numbers are not impressive either

* PANCAKE DAY comes from a 5f handicap
* Looked at similar horses with 10-11-12 runs
* The winners like him all ran far better than him last time

* Look at all horses from recent 5f handicaps
* Those beaten over 3 lengths last time were 0-32
* JUNIOR BEN fails this
* PANCAKE DAY fails this
* ALDERAAN also fails this

* EXCELLING OSCAR comes from a 7f race
* He was beaten 12 lengths just 9 days ago
* I looked for horses with similar recent defeats
* I found a winner like who won at Lingfield
* That makes him a positive but it's not a perfect match
* Hayley Turner gave him a bad ride last time

* POWERFULSTORM is a filly from a 6f maiden
* Statistically it's a neutral profile
* No filly like her tried to win similar races
* Having a neutral profile is good against negatives

My angles suggest two horses

EXCELLING OSCAR
POWERFULSTORM

They are shortlisted mainly because they are not
as bad as the other profiles. There is the question
mark about breeding. If I look at 3 year olds running
at Southwell from all the sires in todays race then it
is clear that CAPTAIN GERARD comes out best and
there is a good chance he can overcome his profile.

Excellent Art 3 year olds like EXCELLING OSCAR
are 0-13 here but some have placed and I feel he's
a saver given his profile is acceptable. Whilst you
wouldn't see horses by Bertolini as a perfect match
for Southwell he has had 12 winning 3 year olds on
this surface far more than any other sire in the race
So I will chance POWERFULSTORM first time here.

Selection

POWERFULSTORM 11/1 Win Bet
EXCELLING OSCAR 4/1 Saver




G o w r a n P a r k 3.15

100/30 Djakadam, 9/2 Gallant Oscar, 7/1 Sadler´sflaure
10/1 My Murphy, 10/1 The Job Is Right, 14/1 Goonyella
14/1 Groody Hill, 14/1 Make A Track, 14/1 Sword Fish
16/1 Rogue Angel, 16/1 Thelobstercatcher
20/1 Like Your Style, 20/1 Oscars Business
20/1 Vasco Du Mee, 25/1 Jadanli, 25/1 Toon River
33/1 Ipsos Du Berlais.

* This is a Grade A Handicap Chase over 3m 1f
* There are 26 similar races in January over 3m-3m2f
* I just wanted a crack at this race
* Keeping away from the sand keeps me fresh

Very interesting favourite in DJAKADAM but I am
opposing him. He was favourite for the Hennessy
in November. We opposed him that day despite it
being very obvious he is a very serious horse. I'm
taking him on today for one statistical reason and
a few other reasons as well which I hope work out.

* There are 75 Listed and Grades races in January
* Thats 75 Handicap Chases at every distance
* Horses aged 6 won just 1 of these 75 races
* They had a miserable 1-47 record
* The only winner was Well Chief in 2005
* He outclassed his field rated 15lbs higher
* He forced most of his rivals out of the handicap
* The implication must be to avoid 6 year olds

* DJAKADAM fails this 1-47 statistic
* He also has Topweight to carry as well
* He is the only horse here with 1 run this season
* All his opponents have less weight and more runs

* DJAKADAM also has the longest absence in the race
* A big field may not suit him either
* In fields of 12 or more his record is FELL UR 8TH

* We know 6 year olds have struggled
* VASCO DU MEE is rejected as a 6yo as well

* Horses aged 7 have also scored badly
* In 26 similar races they have a 2-39 record
* Both 7yo winners were very lightly raced
* ROGUE ANGEL is 7 and far from lightly raced
* He looks the wrong type of 7 year old
* THE JOB IS RIGHT is a lightly raced 7 year old
* He comes from a Beginners Chase
* Horses from Novice or Beginners Chases are 1-15
* None were 7 and the only winner was a 9 year old
* THE JOB IS RIGHT is therefore not like a winner
* JADANLI is too old aged 13
* OSCARS BUSINESS looks a non stayer to me
* She feels my breeding stats and is a mare
* SWORD FISH is a bit too exposed for me
* 22 Chase starts is more than ideal in these races
* He won a much easier 0-117 race last time
* This is a 0-145 and I don't think he will follow up
* The last time out Chase winners had fewer Chase runs
* THELOBSTERCATCHER comes from the same race
* That was a far easier 0-117 and he is 11 years old
* Not keen on a horse that aged with 26 Chase starts
* THELOBSTERCATCHER is used to lower grade than this
* SADLER´SFLAURE is hard to read
* Almost all his chase form is in France
* SADLER´SFLAURE is not sure to stay this far
* His sires runners over 3m 1f + are 1-20
* That came in lower grade and on good ground
* SADLER´SFLAURE ran really well 46 days ago
* If he can repeat that he could go very close
* Hard to know if he will and stamina worries me
* MY MURPHY doesn't have a bad profile
* I would have liked a couple of things changed
* I'd have preferred another run this season
* Especially given he is not short on weight
* I just preferred a few others more
* MAKE A TRACK comes a 19f race
* That damages his profile
* With Plenty of weight he just misses out


GALLANT OSCAR

He is the Sexy runner with 5 Chase starts and having
several prep runs over hurdles and Barry Geraghty on
board. He's inexperienced though and up from 2m 4f.
The 2010 winner overcame both things albeit not from
a hurdle race but it suggests GALLANT OSCAR is not
facing an impossible task by any means. He has failed
to complete the course twice in just 5 Chase runs now.
That's a worry as is the fact it is 9 months since he ran
over fences. Has a chance. Does make some appeal as
a saver but 5/1 is short enough given his inexperience.

GROODY HILL

Pricewise have tipped this horse. They tipped him in the
race last year when he pulled up. He was not fit enough
last year. Pricewise tipped GROODY HILL last time out as
well so he clearly likes the horse. I can see why as he has
a solid profile and will love the ground. He comes from a
good solid trial race and I do like his chance.

GOONYELLA

I liked his profile. Felt he was entitled to need his last run
and that was in a decent trial race for this and he showed
lots of promise there. Both his wins have come on tracks
that were right handed and undulating like this. He should
have as good chance and can win off his current rating.

Selection

GOONYELLA 12/1 - Half Stakes Each Way 12/1

GROODY HILL 12/1 - Half Stakes Each Way 12/1


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