0 Account Bet
0 Selection
0 Profile & Preview bets
1 Negative
5 Races Discussed


Hopefully back to normal after a very quiet start
to the week. I find with the Flat season being so
demanding I am having to work at a faster pace
than ideal. With the best races condensed on a
Saturday by the time the 2 weekend messages
are done I'm not fit for purpose on Monday and
have to just break. Last week was heavier than
usual as I was also doing the Derby/Oaks work.


Tomorrows Message

Given that some of the tracks are some of my
weaker ones I am going to try and mix it up by
splitting the message into two different parts.

Part 1

This will concentrate on Thursdays racing
No previews just a summary of the racing.
Limited details more a list of the best bets.

Part 2

The Derby and Oaks Previews

I hope to get them out tomorrow which will
help to reduce congestion at the weekend.
Obviously a few issues are still unclear
Not least running plans of certain horses.





P r o f i l e & P r e v i e w B e t s


Only 5 normal previews today

I have added a few extra mini previews
These are just "observations" and labelled as such

I'm at a time of the year where only want to do
races that I feel I can sort out with confidence.

The truth of the matter is this is a message that
would benefit greatly from being sent later. Had
I gone for a mid afternoon message then I could
have improved this a lot with a few more hours.

My Timing is short to pieces at the moment

The message is very late

Not going with a bet today with a rushed message





5 previews



Fontwell 2.10

ROYALRAISE 11/4

Easily the best profile in the race (7-10)
Only 4 look to have any chance
He does look a real burglary bet
Not keen on the stable myself
Not keen on advising these e/w bets either
I can't deny that it does look tempting on profiles
He will want it to dry out to perform to his peak
I'd have been happier with stronger negatives


Nottingham 4.50

I don't feel I have made the case here


Chelmsford 6.20

I fancy Pick Your Choice 4/5 but too short



Chelmsford 7.50

THAHAB 7/4

I have fallen for this sexy horse
I have legitimate negatives for every opponent
I do not like Small field Class 2 races
The stats are based on bigger field races
These horses have quality and can defy them
That said he does look the winner
Could be very impressive or very frustrating
On the balance I am going to bet him


Punchestown 8.00

OUR GIRL NAOISE 6/1

Each Way

This one is a real puzzler
The favourite is odds on with the best form
I am going to make the favourite a negative
Our Girl Naoise looks the natural bet
Not one that I feel very comfortable with
Hardly an each way bet to nothing
I just feel we have to oppose the favourite






T u e s d a y s S u m m a r y

Only one preview yesterday. I didn't feel I could
do much more on unfriendly tracks when still in
need of a break. I was short on inspiration after
a long schedule and settled on one race which
was unstaked. My ideal scenario was going for
Ocean Crystal each way on fast ground but the
rain made this impossible. He still got placed on
soft ground and I feel he'd have won without a
ground change. I downgraded the bet and had
just a win bet and saver which failed. It was an
uneventful day I knew I couldn't do much with.





D a i l y N e g a t i v e s

1 Negative Today

Punchestown 8.00

Sophie´s World 1/2

Not sure if this is wise
I think she has a weak profile
Probably not as weak as I would like
I am going to make her a negative
Partly because she looks small to me
A big field and very short price help a lot
The unfortunate truth is so few can win
There may just be one legitimate danger


Results of Negatives
10 correct bets from 12





P r o f i l e & P r e v i e w s




Wolverhampton 2.00

Observations

This is a 6f maiden for 2 year olds
Just 7 runners
Unraced 2yo's by Duke of Marmalade struggle
They are just 1-104 the winner won over 7f
Battle Of Bosworth fails this
Crossed my mind to place lay him
It is a small field and the favourite's unraced
Something to think about if your not risk averse



F o n t w e l l 2.10

7/4 Vivant Poeme, 5/2 Mercers Court, 3/1 Royalraise
110/1 Lawless Island, 50/1 Only Gorgeous
50/1 Royale´s Legacy, 50/1 Willshebetrying
100/1 Court Finale, 100/1 Finnegan´s Garden
100/1 Nyetimber.

This is a 2m Novice Hurdle
10 runners and 6 look no hopers
This should be down to 4 runners

LAWLESS ISLAND was well beaten last time
That was only in a maiden hurdle
With just 1 hurdle run there are better profiles

MERCERS COURT is a 7 year old
He comes from a handicap hurdle
There were 4 winners aged 7 doing this
These had 18 15 4 6 hurdle runs
MERCERS COURT has 9 hurdle runs
Not a naural match but could win

VIVANT POEME is a 6yo
HE comes from a handicap hurdle
I found a similar winner with 8 hurdle runs
VIVANT POEME has 6 so isn't a perfect match
I would see him as a mild positive

ROYALRAISE is a 6yo
He won a Novice Hurdle last time out
That race was over 2m 4f
I ran this profile in all similar races
There was an excellent 7-10 record
Win lose or draw it's the best profile

Selection

ROYALRAISE 3/1

Each Way



Nottingham 3.50

Observations

I could only shortlist 2
Once I took out horses failing my fitness tests
I would have shortlisted Big Baz and Extremity
Betting both at 3/1 is an even money winner
Could be a lower strength choice of bet


Wolverhampton 4.00

Observations

12f Claiming race
I don't fancy a 3yo from a seller
I would not have chosen Percella at all



N o t t i n g h a m 4.50

7/2 The Cashel Man, 4/1 Amour De Nuit
5/1 Atalan, 13/2 Magic Circle, 15/2 Galileano
12/1 Paddys Runner, 14/1 Bletchley Park, 14/1 Diamond Joel
14/1 Percy Veer, 20/1 Duke Of Sonning, 20/1 The Twisler
25/1 Just Ching, 25/1 Sporting Prince, 50/1 Philba.

* This is a 14f handicap for 0-70 rated horses
* Run on soft ground a big stamina test for 3 year olds
* I ran a few breeding tests for horses unlikely to stay
* JUST CHING - SPORTING PRINCE - PHILBA failed them
* BLETCHLEY PARK didn't look a guaranteed stayer either
* Not overkeen on his trainer when he owns his own runners

* There could be a draw advantage here
* Since 2008 there have been 71 races here over 14f
* Horses drawn in Stalls 11 or higher are just 1-53
* Sharp bend after the start looks the explanation
* I'd be very wary about horses drawn in Stall 11 or more

* PADDYS RUNNER is not well drawn
* Horses like him from 10f maidens this year are 1-71
* Males like him doing it were 0-40
* MAGIC CIRCLE is drawn 14 the worst draw
* I felt he had a neutral profile
* I needed another run to match to to a winner

* GALILEANO has a worrying draw in stall 13
* GALILEANO's profile isn't perfect by any means
* Fillies beaten in 12f handicaps last time were 4-124
* These 4 winners had 4 6 4 5 runs
* None had more than 6 runs and she has 8

* AMOUR DE NUIT is a seasonal debutant
* Coming from 7f and with 9st 6lbs he isn't like a winner
* DUKE OF SONNING ran well over 14f last time
* With 1 race this season I am against him
* I want more given he has only just ran 13 days ago
* DIAMOND JOEL has only an average profile
* PERCY VEER - No strong statistical objections
* A lack of positives too and a low rent stable


* THE CASHEL MAN won a 14f handicap last time
* Horses doing that with a recent run were 1-10
* That winner had 8 runs and 5 runs that season
* THE CASHEL MAN has just 4 runs and 1 this year
* None won a maiden handicap last time as he did
* It's not a perfect match for a 11/4 favourite

* THE TWISLER has a solid profile

* ATALAN won a 3yo handicap last time
* With a recent run it is a good solid profile
* The main issue is will he want it on the soft side

Selection

THE TWISLER 12/1 Each Way to half Stakes

ATALAN 7/1 Win Bet to half Stakes




C h e l m s f o r d 6.20

5/2 Pick Your Choice, 4/1 Rifle Range
5/1 Diamond Ridge, 5/1 Lord Reason, 8/1 Hayba
12/1 Sea Of Heaven, 14/1 Alan Turing
14/1 Singapore Dream, 14/1 Synoptic Dream
66/1 Rowellian.

This is a Mile Maiden race

PICK YOUR CHOICE should be hard to beat
Best Numbers. Satisfactory last run. Track form

My best negative is DIAMOND RIDGE
I don't want an unraced horse by Zebedee over 8f
His runners over 7f + with under 3 runs are 0-40
DIAMOND RIDGE should be a doubtful stayer
The same applies to SEA OF HEAVEN
ALAN TURING - Not for me first time from Ed Dunlop

Shortlist

LORD REASON - Appears to have a solid each way chance
He is only a small horse. May have less scope than some

RIFLE RANGE is unraced and could be a threat

PICK YOUR CHOICE - Looks the likely winner

Selection

PICK YOUR CHOICE 4/5

Win Bet



Chelmsford 7.20 pm

Observation

I'm interested in how Nidnon runs
His sires 5f runners are only 1-56
The only winner had 4 runs
Not a negative in a tiny field
I would have selected something else though




C h e l m s f o r d 7.50

3/1 Thahab, 4/1 Quite Smart, 5/1 Teruntum Star
6/1 Vimy Ridge, 7/1 Al Gomry, 10/1 Elis Eliz
10/1 Frostman, 10/1 Mambo Paradise.

3/1 Thahab,
5/1 Teruntum Star,
6/1 Vimy Ridge,
10/1 Frostman,

* This is a 3yo handicap over 6f
* There are 17 of these races in June
* There are 53 of these races in May and June

* Horses down from 7f races have not done well
* In all 17 races in June they were 1-63
* If you look at races in May and June
* Fillies that came from 7f races were 0-46
* QUITE SMART fails that 0-46 record
* She is from a 7f maiden and no winners did that
* ELIS ELIZ is wrong as a filly from 7f
* MAMBO PARADISE is also out as a filly from 7f
* AL GOMRY is an unlikely winner first time out

* If you look at horses that ran this season
* When absent over a month they were just 2-77
* None were beaten as far as TERUNTUM STAR
* None had his weight either
* None were like FROSTMAN from 5f maidens

* VIMY RIDGE is very exposed with 15 runs
* In 53 races horses with over 13 runs were 1-39
* VIMY RIDGE also comes from a 5f race
* Horses from 5f races with 10 + career runs are 0-31
* I therefore have to fail him from 5f

THAHAB has an acceptable profile
I like him more than the other options
Ran very well at York from Stall 18
That was over 5f and this 6f should suit better
More was expected from a Million Euro 2yo
This is only a Chelmsford handicap though
The 2 highest rated horses in the race may not be fit
He has won a race but hasn't yet delivered what he promised
He looked very good at York last time staying on
In a small field he could out speed these
Especially with so many unfit and down from 7f

Selection

THAHAB 15/8

Win Bet


P u n c h e s t o w n 8.00

4/11 Sophie´s World, 11/2 Our Girl Naoise
12/1 Havana Dancer, 14/1 Anna Holty, 14/1 Lizzies Way
14/1 Roaming Wild, 16/1 Little Stampy, 25/1 Turtle Power
33/1 Flirtatious Annie, 33/1 Last Opera, 33/1 Laura´s Lark
33/1 Petite Beauty, 40/1 Rock On Emma
50/1 Cosmopolitan Cat, 66/1 Charlotte´s Chum
66/1 Elusive Leona, 66/1 On Yellow Island.

This is a 2m maiden hurdle for Mares
Big field but plenty of deadwood

SOPHIES WORLD is trading around 1/2
She is only a 4 year old
I looked at all similar races in May and June
Horses aged 4 are only 1-52 in these races

The only winner (Taweyla) Won recently at Worcester
Not a strong race and she was a hurdling debutant

The issue is whether to oppose SOPHIES WORLD
She was decent on the flat but this isn't the flat
She fell in a 3yo hurdle race
She was 2nd in a 4yo hurdle
Yes it is the best form
But she's never met older horses yet
She is top on her Racing Post Ratings
She is not that far ahead though

I watched SOPHIE´S WORLD at Killarney
She did quite well but she is only a small horse
She lacks size and this is a top class track

OUR GIRL NAOISE is comfortably 2nd best
The Racing Post make the following point
She's "one of the very few equipped to tackle Sophie´s World"

Around 7/1 each way she could be the value

Not a safe bet and not sure how confident we can be
But this favourite does not have a safe profile

Selection

OUR GIRL NAOISE 7/1

Each Way




Chelmsford 8.20 pm

Observation

3/1 Champagne Ransom, 5/1 Shifting Moon
6/1 Cathedral, 6/1 Opus Too, 8/1 Layline, 8/1 Roughlyn
10/1 Ultima Ora, 12/1 Corn Maiden, 14/1 Fire In Babylon.

Champagne Ransom is a warm 7/4 favourite
Mark Johnston 3yo against older horses
The positive arguments are obvious
I looked at every similar race
Class 6 handicaps over 12f 13f 14f in May and June
Fillies aged 3 had a 1-27 record
Those with 5 or more runs like her were 0-23
She may win but she is not like any winner
I would rather oppose her with something each way

CATHEDRAL could be one option
You have to forgive a poor strike rate

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