0 Bet today
0 Negative
4 Races Discussed



Grand National Day

All our reputations are on the line today with the
pressure of once a year punters we all know who
will be expecting us to pull up the winner for them.

I have made a couple of bad decisions this week
and that has made me a bit annoyed with myself.

When I tell you that I feel the Grand National is
going to be won by a 50/1 outsider who has never
won any Chase in his life before and never won a
race beyond 3m before you may think I've had a
mental meltdown and that I should be sectioned.

Possibly so but I'm pleased with my 50/1 having
ran a few fresh angles last night and adapted my
approach because it is a softer ground National.
I have a Split Stake bet 50/1 20/1 with 2 savers.


Today's Bet

No Official Bet



Grand National Final Selection


£4 Win Bet RULE THE WORLD 50/1

£2 Each Way GOONELLA 20/1

£1 Win GALLANT OSCAR 20/1

£1 Win MANY CLOUDS 10/1


1-2-3-4-5-6 Places with V. Chandler
1-2-3-4-5 Places available with these firms
Bet365 Skybet Boyles PPower Corals Betfair
Best firms to bet Rule The World
Bet365 Skybet PPower



Only 4 Previews Today

I have decided to go with No Staked Bet today
I't's a one of day and one with enough interest anyway.
I wont care if my National Bet wins unstaked anyway

Mainly it is a Strategic Decision with next week in Mind
The National is a Must bet race anyway
I have 2 other bets that I like a lot
I have decided to do a Sunday Message tomorrow




T o d a y s M e s s a g e

Aintree's card has collapsed with 3 unbackable hotpots
The Yorkhill - Douvan - Thistlecrack treble pays 10/11
Good luck if you play but not something I can go with.

That leaves only the National and 1 other decent races
I have thrown everything at the Aintree 4.20pm
Dusted down some Generic Stats to target this race
Gowran Park has heavy ground and lots of small fields
No English flat card on the Grass
Lingfield is poor just 1 race interested me


Sedgefield 3.20

Sakhee´s City 13/8

Win Bet

This is the best of the short priced bets today
Should just be two runners
The favourite fails a 0-169 statistic
I think he should win


Aintree 4.20

£4.00 Each Way Band Of Blood 14/1
£2.00 Win Bet Cernunnos 13/2

Detailed preview
Serious Generic Angles
One or two blind eyes have to be turned
With shortlists, staking and last time out runs
But I think we have a very good chance here




Aintree 5.15

£4 Win Bet Rule The World 50/1
£2 Each Way Goonyella 20/1
£1 Win Gallant Oscar 20/1
£1 Win Many Clouds 10/1

Explained in Detail elsewhere in message
Obviously have to be realistic
But I am happy with this portfolio
My personal stakes will differ slightly
I will save on Many Clouds Place only
That's the only difference from the above stakes



N e g a t i v e s

No Negative Today

Results of Negatives
22 correct bets from 29




F r i d a y s R e v i e w


It was a Wexford dominated message and my 3 bets
there finished L W P but the wrong option won as we
went for the main bet on TUZO. That frustrated me.
I don't mind that I got the favourite wrong. Multiple
decisions are made every day and mistakes are part
of it but I went with the wrong race. The price shifted
too quickly and a non runner came in and the bet just
looked far too short and looked ridiculous. I won't let
that get under my skin too much as I an annoyed with
myself. BAY OF FREEDOM's win did help matters a
bit and TOREEN ran well placing each way. I fancied
the winner as well and could have split staked that as
another option but we'd have broken level either way.
Brilliant negative in the last but we only finished level
in the race. I look at yesterday as a bad day and must
put it down to my error because the work was decent.



P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s



L i n g f i e l d 2.35

11/2 Exchequer, 6/1 Fiftyshadesofgrey, 7/1 George Cinq
7/1 The Warrior, 7/1 Unforgiving Minute, 10/1 Arnold Lane
10/1 Fleckerl, 10/1 Presumido, 12/1 Easy Tiger, 14/1 Clement
14/1 Forceful Appeal, 14/1 Split The Atom, 25/1 Fast Dancer.

Trappy looking 7f handicap

Racing Post Ratings
Lingfield 7f races
Since Jan 1st 2015

96 Arnold Lane
90 Arnold Lane
88 Arnold Lane - Fleckerl - Clement
86 Clement
85 Fleckerl - Forceful Appeal
84 Clement
80 Clement


There are 47 similar races in April on Sand
Horses that raced over 6f this season were 2-62
The only horses doing this were 4 and 5 year olds
FLECKERL is 6 and does this
FORCEFUL APPEAL is an 8yo
Only 2 winners were aged 8 or more
Neither of those dropped in distance

GEORGE CINQ - Not for me as a 6yo seasonal debutant
He has never won before July
THE WARRIOR is a 4yo seasonal debutant
9 of these won but none had his weight
None won from a rating as high as he does
With No sand form not for me
No seasonal debutant aged 4 won with 10 or more runs
FAST DANCER has 12 runs and is not like a winner
EASY TIGER has the same problem
CLEMENT wouldn't be my first choice
Landed a Winter Hat-trick but 3 defeats since
The handicapper seems to have caught up with him
SPLIT THE ATOM is an exposed 4yo down in trip
I can find 4yo winners with fewer runs winning
None with as many runs as him but his profile is Neutral

Shortlist

UNFORGIVING MINUTE has been gambled
He has the worst draw as well though

FIFTYSHADESOFGREY is a 5yo seasonal debutant
His profile is fine and he has run well first time out before

EXCHEQUER - Profile ok. Similar to the 2002 winner

PRESUMIDO - Won last time and his profile is fine

ARNOLD LANE - Neutral profile
But has the best course and distance numbers
If we look at Course and Distance numbers he is best

Selection

£6 Win ARNOLD LANE 10/1

£2 Win EXCHEQUER 11/2

£1 Win PRESUMIDO 12/1

£1 Win FIFTYSHADESOFGREY 9/1





S e d g e f i e l d 3.20

4/6 Lamool, 2/1 Sakhee´s City,
14/1 Rocky Two, 33/1 The Saskatoon, 40/1 Kyllachykov
50/1 Ask Paddy.

This is a 2m 3f Novice Hurdle

LAMOOL was a Non runner yesterday
I opposed him in yesterdays message for these reasons

LAMOOL is 9 years old and is absent 203 days
That is a hell of an absence for a 9yo hurdler
When you consider how exposed he is
40 Career starts
14 on the Flat 20 over Hurdles and even 6 Chases

Novice Hurdles in April
Any distance
There are 665 of these races since 2003
Horses aged 7 or more
Over 4 lifetime starts
Absent more than 5 Months
There is a 0-90 record with these horses
LAMOOL fails this 0-90 statistic

I can take this further today

March April May June
Novice Hurdles
Any distance
Horses aged 7 or more
Over 10 lifetime starts
Horses with this profile were 0-169
LAMOOL fails this 0-169 statistic

I have to oppose him
He has plenty of ability
But the age and absence leaves me no choice

It has to be SAKHEE´S CITY
Not perfect in every department
But his Racing Post Ratings of 119 117 123 are fine
He looks the better bet at the prices

Selection

SAKHEE´S CITY 13/8

Win Bet




A i n t r e e 4.20

5/1 Coologue, 5/1 Mystifiable, 7/1 Cernunnos, 10/1 Cloudy Too
10/1 Knock House, 10/1 No Secrets, 10/1 Roc D´apsis, 10/1 Warden Hill
12/1 Thomas Brown, 12/1 Virak, 16/1 Little Jon, 16/1 Maggio, 20/1 Al Co
20/1 Racing Pulse, 25/1 Band Of Blood.

This is a Handicap Chase over an extended 3m
I am going to start with a couple of Generic Statistics

Aintree Festival since 2000
There have been 65 Handicap Chases
That is any distance and any Class
There were only 8 winners aged 7
Those with 11st or more had a 0-67 record
No 7yo has won any handicap chase at this festival
With more than 10st 13lbs since 1999
VIRAK is therefore rejected aged 7 with topweight

Aintree Festival since 1997
There have been 79 Handicap Chases
Horses aged 11 or more had a poor 9-332 record
Those absent longer than 42 days had a 1-115 record
The only winner was Neptune Collonges absent 56 days
None won with more than 8 weeks absence
AL CO fails this and looks short of runs
After all 17 of the last 19 winners of this race ran within 35 days
NO SECRETS is 12 years old and absent 55 days
In 79 Aintree Festival Handicap Chases
Horses aged 12 or more were just 2-118
Those absent more than 4 weeks were 0-69
NO SECRETS has to go as well

RACING PULSE isn't running well enough

Past winners had the following days absence
32 24 2 32 35 23 23 22 29 102 21 13 76 24 54 13 22 41 22
17 of the last 19 winners ran within 35 days
WARDEN HILL is rejected absent 363 days

COOLOGUE is 7 and has 10st 10lbs
Thats only 4lbs lower than my Generic Stat ceiling
We know no 7yo has won any race here with 11st +
Although he passes this statistic it's only by 4lbs
And he has a few other factors I dislike
COOLOGUE has breeding issues
If I look at his sires runners in Class 2 or higher
None have yet won beyond 2m 2f yet
He comes from a 2m 3f Novice Chase as well

Do we really want a 7 year old anyway ?
Here is another Generic Statistic

Aintree Festival since 2001
Handicap Chases over 2m 1f and Longer
There have been 45 of these Handicap Chases
Look at 7 year olds in these races
They had a horrible 1-126 record
That was a 7yo Mare who won the 2006 Topham
I am against all the 7 year olds here
COOLOGUE is out aged 7

KNOCK HOUSE is also rejected aged 7
He has never run here before
He is 0-6 Racing above Class 3 Grade as well
He is also a Small horse and I don't want that here

THOMAS BROWN is also rejected aged 7
He only has 5 Chase starts anyway
He has yet to win beyond a Class 3 Grade
He has never done much in a big field either
And his record suggests he is best fresh

ROC D´APSIS is also a 7 year old
He fails that Generic 1-126 record too
His jumping isn't perfect and he needs a career best

LITTLE JON would not be my first choice
He is only a small horse and I don't like that here
He has never won beyond 2m 4f
He has never even raced beyond 2m 5f
If you look at his sire Pasternak
His runners over 2m 6f and more in Class 3 or higher
Have a weak 1-34 record
The only winner was a 3m Novice Chaser
LITTLE JON is not certain to stay
This is over 3f longer than he has ever raced before
I don't want that for a small horse coming off a recent fall


MAGGIO is an 11yo
It worries me he has raced just once since November 19th
I suppose the 2010 was not too dissimilar
I am a bit worried by limited big field form
Worried by the overnight rain
But he has probably been laid out for this race
His owner is a Liverpudlian who has won a Grand National

MYSTIFIABLE comes here on a Hat Trick
He won a 0-127 off a mark of 112
He won a 0-125 off a mark of 120
Now he faces a 0-157 Chase off a mark of 134
This is a big jump in Class and weight
MYSTIFIABLE has only had 3 Chase starts as well
Past winners had the following Chase runs
25 19 14 11 6 7 8 8 5 7 3 7 14 8 6 13 11 7 12
The 2006 winner of this had 3 Chase runs
He did come from a Grade 1 Chase though
MYSTIFIABLE only comes from a Novice Handicap
I've looked at all Aintree Handicaps in recent years
No horse won from a on Graded Novice Handicap Chase
He's clearly a big improver
But very inexperienced and there are concerns

Possibles

CLOUDY TOO is an exposed 10 year old
He has now had 24 Chase starts
Past winners had the following Chase runs
25 19 14 11 6 7 8 8 5 7 3 7 14 8 6 13 11 7 12
Last years winner did win with 25 Chase runs
But all previous winners were lighter raced
Wouldn't rule him out but not convinced
This isn't really his best time of year

CERNUNNOS is a 6yo
Aintree Festival since 2000
There have been 65 Handicap Chases
That is any distance and any Class
There were 7 winners aged 6
They all had under 8 Chase runs
CERNUNNOS fails that with 10 Chase runs
Now I could ignore this statistic
Based on the fact 4 of his runs were abroad
But I'd have to overlook other things
The 6yo winners of this race all came from pattern races
CERNUNNOS does not do that
He is sired by Della Francesca
This sire has yet to breed a winner beyond 2m 6f
None of the Sires winners won in Class 2 or higher beyond 2m 4f
CERNUNNOS fails my breeding statistics too
But 6 year olds do score well in this race


BAND OF BLOOD has bottomweight
He was hammered at Cheltenham last time
Forgive him that as the race came too soon
He had ran only 10 days beforehand
Over the winter he moved stables to Richard Newland
He has had a trapped epiglottis cured by a Wind Operation
He's been 4th in an Irish National so he has some class
Whether he has enough for this after a bad run I don't know

Selection

£4.00 Each Way BAND OF BLOOD 14/1

£2.00 Win Bet CERNUNNOS 13/2





A i n t r e e 5.15

7/1 Many Clouds, 10/1 The Last Samuri, 12/1 Silviniaco Conti, 14/1 Holywell
14/1 Saint Are, 14/1 The Druids Nephew, 16/1 Gallant Oscar, 16/1 Shutthefrontdoor
20/1 Goonyella, 20/1 Kruzhlinin, 20/1 Sir Des Champs, 20/1 Ucello Conti
25/1 Morning Assembly, 25/1 Unioniste, 33/1 Boston Bob, 33/1 First Lieutenant
33/1 Triolo D´alene, 40/1 Le Reve, 40/1 On His Own 40/1 Onenightinvienna,
40/1 The Romford Pele, Wonderful Charm, 50/1 Buywise 50/1 Gilgamboa,
50/1 Hadrian´s Approach, 50/1 Just A Par, 50/1 Rocky Creek,
50/1 Rule The World, 50/1 Soll, 66/1 Aachen, 66/1 Ballycasey, 66/1 Ballynagour
66/1 Black Thunder, 66/1 Double Ross, 66/1 Home Farm, 66/1 Katenko
66/1 Pendra, 66/1 Vics Canvas, 66/1 Vieux Lion Rouge.

The Grand National is fascinating as ever
This year Willie Mullins has 4 runners and Paul Nicholls 6
They have a quarter of the field trying to win the trainers Championship

They seem to be throwing a lot on unsuitable doubtful stayers at the race
I am boxed into certain corners in a race like this
Certain statistics and Breeding statistics give me no wiggle room
The 7 year olds for example have to be eliminated
So to surely does the 13yo VICS CANVAS
So do the horses with very light seasons on fitness grounds

The last 27 winners had the following runs that season
4 7 4 3 4 6 4 5 6 6 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 3 5 4 6 7 6
It would statistically unacceptable to consider horses with 1-2 runs
WONDERFUL CHARM and TRIOLO D´ALENE have this problem
So to does SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR who didn't stay last year
HADRIAN´S APPROACH and PENDRA are too lightly raced this year
HOME FARM - KATENKO and KRUZHLININ are as well
ROCKY CREEK is a doubtful stayer by Dr Massini

I am boxed in by breeding stats as well
I don't mind that as these are tried and tested
There are strong grounds to oppose several on stamina grounds
I always oppose the horses by Accordion in long distance chases
THE ROMFORD PELE and SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR are by this sire
Horses by Robin Des Champs don't have high class staying winners
SIR DES CHAMPS represents him and looks a doubtful stayer
King's Theatre has bred 131 Listed /Graded winners
Those that ran over 3m 3f or more are 0-43
THE DRUIDS NEPHEW has this to overcome
He led 6 fences out last year when falling
But there was a long way to go and he is not proven over this far
Besides that he is far lighter raced this season than last
Just 1 run in 120 days will be no help when the Petrol light comes on

Horses by Shantou have not done that well
None have won beyond 3m 2f yet in Class 4 or higher
BALLYNAGOUR has this problem
What I do like about BALLYNAGOUR
Is the number of runs he has had this year
Overall the negatives outweighed the positives
But 70/1 on Betfair is a very cheap additional saver

MORNING ASSEMBLY is sired by Shantou
Thats a breeding concern and doesn't score well on my points system
He'd be the least experienced chaser in decades if winning
The last 2 winners had just 10 and 11 Chase runs
Maybe it is not unrealistic to expect a winner like him with 8 Chases
He is after all well handicapped
If the race is slowly changing and lighter raced horses are winning
And that does happen and could well be the case
Then MORNING ASSEMBLY would be one to consider
He is the ideal flag bearer for the new progressive lighter raced type
But I have to overlook a lot if I select him

I have JUST A PAR as a doubtful stayer
Flat bred but he has won a 3m 5f Whitbred Gold Cup
He scores well on my scoring system as well
He has raced just once in 126 days though
20 of the last 21 winners had at least 2 runs since Jan 1st that year


The last 25 winners all ran within 56 days
UCELLO CONTI fails that and has the longest absence today
BUYWISE is absent longer than acceptable
He just doesn't look the type that wins races like this
He could find the big field against him
BLACK THUNDER looks short of runs and absent too long
GILGAMBOA looks a doubtful stayer

SAINT ARE was second last year
That sort of trumps my breeding stats who dislike him
But last year he had an extra race that season
This year he has just 3 runs
That is very low for an exposed horse with 25 Chase runs
On that has raced just once in 126 days
These are the reasons his numbers are not significant
I just feel there are better bets out there

I can't make a case for BALLYCASEY
I feel the same about 12yo ON HIS OWN

FIRST LIEUTENANT interested me in last years race
I just wasn't sure if he had retained all his ability
His Racing Post Ratings suggest he has done
But FIRST LIEUTENANT is 11 now
He has raced just once in 113 days
He had a 23 day absence in last years race
This year it is 63 longer than the last 25 winners
I can't justify him as a selection this year
I don't fancy LE REVE
BOSTON BOB is 11
He has raced just twice in 9 months now
I don't see enough I like about him

SOLL could go well
He comes out quite well on my points system
He shouldn't be as big as 80/1 on Betfair
His run in last years race was poor though
He broke a blood vessel and does run that risk again
Not considered for a selection
But I found few negatives and respect him

There are two class horses this year
SILVINIACO CONTI is one of those
If you look down the weights from the top down
You can see a case that Class might come to the front
But I've never though he fully stayed the Gold Cup trip
And he is not a big horse either
Hats off to him if he wins but I can't see it
And his price is too short given the task in hand

MANY CLOUDS is the other Class horse
Last years winner scores pretty well this year too
To be fair he is shortlistable
But he wouldn't be an imaginative choice

HOLYWELL is clearly very smart
His Points score is good enough to shortlist
I just have a Non statistical combination of problems
He is a short enough price
When you consider he is not a very big horse

THE LAST SAMURI is 8 with 8 Chase starts
Would be the least experienced winner in decades
He has won his last 2 races though
And he is very well handicapped off 149
I give him a better chance than I did a few weeks ago
He scores badly on my points system
And he makes limited appeal at the price
But I feel like I have been a bit unfair to him recently

UNIONISTE scores well on my points system
He fell at the 5th in last years race but he was a 7yo
I can make a case for him and he could win
It is really just the big field that worries me
He isn't the most substantial of horses
That's not something that I want to risk


Conclusion

No surprise if Many Clouds won again.
Many Clouds is 9/2 to Place on Betfair
That could be the best saver in my view

I had a bet on Morning Assembly 28/1 yesterday
My race stats, Breeding stats and Points system disagree
They would see that as a stupid waste of money
I don't think he will win but he got under my skin a bet
If the race is changing towards lighter raced horses
After all the last 2 winners had 10 and 11 Chase runs
The he may just break some unbreakable angles and win
He is Not on my official shortlist though



The Final Angle
The Most Important Angle
The Brand New Angle

The Ground is on the soft side
That is going to make a significant difference
So I decided to look at only past Nationals
That were run when the ground was softer than Good
That just seems Logical and I was persuaded by this

Every winner was aged 9-10-11

No Winners Came from Cheltenham (0-67)

All winners had 5 or 6 races that season

Most had 3 or more runs since Christmas Day

All had at least 2 runs since Christmas Day

If you think about it the race must be harder to win
on softer ground. I don't think it is coincidence that
these winners had 6 6 6 5 6 races that season rather
than those with 3-4 runs. It is that extra preparation
I also like and understand with several recent races
as well. Horses from Cheltenham's Festival are 0-67
in softer ground Nationals and that could be a factor.

Only 1 horse fits this profile like a Glove

RULE THE WORLD 50/1

I tell you what else I like about him
Sometimes after the National you get that feeling
Where you can see it clearly after the race but not before
He fits that feeling of being all too obvious after the race

I made his sire a Negative sire
That was unfair. It probably should have been neutral
The Sire did not have a Chase runner since 2013
So none have had a proper chance to achieve things

Besides that Rule The World has shown great stamina
He was 2nd in an Irish National on soft ground

I love his extra runs this year
He has a 2 race advantage over most of these

He scored badly on my Points system for these reasons

He has never won a Chase before
He has never won over 3m or more
He also comes up in distance

It seems Madness that I am going with a horse that has
never won a Chase before and has never won one at 3m.

Other statistical punters would cold shoulder me for such views
But he has only had these 13 Chase placings
2 2 5 2 2 2 6 SU 3 2 2 5 4
He was pitched in at the Deep end very quickly
On his Chase debut he gave weight away to a Grade 1 winner
Beaten only in a photo that day as well
2nd in an Irish National after just 5 runs
He has already shown he is a high class Grade 1 horse
It is a crazy selection statistically
But he is also a crazy price as well
And I am sold on him.

Final Selection


£4 Win Bet RULE THE WORLD 50/1

£2 Each Way GOONELLA 20/1

£1 Win GALLANT OSCAR 20/1

£1 Win MANY CLOUDS 10/1

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