1 Bet today
0 Negative
8 Previews

8 previews on a very wet Saturday
2 fascinating Cheltenham chases at 1.50 + 2.25
I've thrown the kitchen sink at these two races
Remarkable age and weight statistics in both races
Complicated analysis entangled and woven together
It will be fascinating to see if these races work out
6 softer races that offer us different options
Feels like quite a well balanced message
That should bring a fair share of pleasure and pain

Todays Bet is a bit outrageous

£2.50 Each Way Bet at 20/1
With 5 Saver Bets at £1 each
I was going to go with the 2.25pm
But I feel we have lost the value in the price
The main bet Is least likely of 4 highlighted bets to win
I have gone with this
But I see all 4 bets of equal strength


Today's Bet

Cheltenham 1.50

ALVARADO 20/1

£2.50 Each Way Bet


5 Saver Bets

£1 SHOTGUN PADDY 10/1
£1 DOCTOR HARPER 11/1
£1 FOURTH ACT 10/1
£1 UPSWING 11/1
£1 CORGY 8/1








T o d a y s M e s s a g e

I want to highlight 4 bets from 8 previews


Lingfield 12.15

£7 Win Bet LILBOURNE PRINCE 100/30
£3 Win Bet RITASUN 9/4

I can't split these two
Either could have been the main bet
If I have a reservation about the race
It was not going with one of them each way
I think we can beat the favourite
But each way would allow me to be wrong
And still have a chance of not losing much
I will stake it as a win bet and saver
With Staking issues my biggest worry


Uttoxeter 12.30 - MARQUIS OF CARABAS 7/4

Uttoxeter 1.05 - ROLLING DYLAN 7/4

Each Way Double

This seems a sensible bet
Both horses set the standard and look solid
They both should run their race and go very close
They both have unratable dangers
It just seems logical to combine them



Cheltenham 1.50

Win Bet
5 Savers

ALVARADO 20/1

£5.00 Win Bet

£1 SHOTGUN PADDY 10/1
£1 DOCTOR HARPER 11/1
£1 FOURTH ACT 10/1
£1 UPSWING 11/1
£1 CORGY 8/1

A Fascinating multi issue chase
I do like ALVARADO around 20/1
The problem with him over the other options
Are that he is not as certain to run his race
The savers are important and affordable




Cheltenham 2.25

£4.50 Each Way AS DE MEE 7/1

£1.00 Win Bet FRODON 8/1

Thomas Crapper 33/1 (Small 2nd saver 40/1)

Frodon was always going to be a saver
I have had some 33/1 + Thomas Crapper
I can't see it happening but you never know
And he has the right numbers and can deliver her
AS DE MEE fought off everything to be the pick
His handicap mark is his biggest claim
My Breeding stats question whether he will stay
I have backed him but I do just prefer the 1.50pm









Cheltenham

Winter Handicap Chase Statistic

November and December
Cheltenham
Handicap Chases
Class 2 and Higher
Horses aged 9 or more
Carrying more than 11st weight
There is a miserable record with these horses
Since 2004 they have a 0-117 record
The last winners to do it were both in 2003
They were Cenkos and Lord Noelie 13 years ago
In fields of 9 or more these types were 0-119





Daily Negatives

No Negative Today
Results of Negatives
27 correct bets from 38




F r i d a y 's S u m m a r y

We stayed only at Cheltenham yesterday
Didn't deviate elsewhere which as a good plan
It made for an accurate message from 4 previews
These 4 previews finished P P L W
We got the 1st 2nd and 3rd in 2 of the 4 races
ERICHT Each Way was my best bet
Ran a cracker and just touched off in second
PAIROFBROWNEYES was another each way 2nd
He did enough to win and probably should have
ROCK THE KASBAH failed as the 3rd preview
The winner had a W W W W profile and I turned him down
That suggests I completely cocked that race up
We got PEREGRINE RUN home in the last with savers
Finished ahead in quite an accurate message




P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s


L i n g f i e l d 12.15

5/2 Threebagsue, 7/2 Lilbourne Prince, 4/1 Masqueraded
9/2 Ritasun, 10/1 Evidence, 10/1 Musical Taste
14/1 Moving Robe, 16/1 Tasteofexcellence.

This is a 3yo Claimer over a mile
6 past renewals
This is the only 6f claimer run in November

If we look at the ratings and weights
Then THREEBAGSUE should be winning
But I am not convinced that's the right approach
For starters is she really worth a rating of 76 ?
She has raced 20 times before
Her best ever Racing Post Rating is 73
I think that is a more accurate rating
I don't think she is a 76 horse

All 6 winners were Male
All 6 winners ran within 26 days
Female horses have a 0-22 record in this race

I think we should demand lots of recent runs here

2015 winner had 3 runs in the previous 76 days
2014 winner had 3 runs in the previous 49 days
2013 winner had 3 runs in the previous 64 days
2012 winner had 3 runs in the previous 47 days
2011 winner had 3 runs in the previous 49 days
2010 winner had 3 runs in the previous 45 days

I want at least 3 runs in the last 3 months

MUSICAL TASTE is a filly (0-22)
Not interested with 1 run since July
EVIDENCE is a filly with 1 run in 95 days
I think you will need more than that
MOVING ROBE looks underraced as well
TASTEOFEXCELLENCE is a filly
We know fillies are 0-22 in this race
She has a longer absence than all 6 winners
And she's been under performing

THREEBAGSUE is a filly
She should be winning this at the weights
But I don't feel I can rely on her
We know fillies are 0-22 in this race
THREEBAGSUE could be short of recent runs
She has only had 2 races since last April
If you look at her main market rivals
They all have multiple recent races

MASQUERADED has questions to answer
He comes up in distance
Has raced just once in 79 days

Whilst MASQUERADED has just 1 run in that time
And THREEBAGSUE 2 runs in as long as 7 months

Shortlist

RITASUN had 3 recent races
LILBOURNE PRINCE has 6 recent races

They look fitter and better conditioned
Hard to know what trip both prefer
But I think both have to be backed

Shortlist

£7 Win Bet LILBOURNE PRINCE 100/30
£3 Win Bet RITASUN 9/4





W e t h e r b y 12.20

10/11 La Bague Au Roi, 11/8 Whatduhavtoget,
16/1 Groovejet, 50/1 Fille Des Champs,
200/1 Byresteads Farm.

Mares Novice Hurdle over 2m
We have 5 runners
2 rank outsiders
Only 2 horses under 16/1
Should really be a match
Especially as GROOVEJET looks held

WHATDUHAVTOGET is a well regarded prospect
He is 4 and has had 1 run and 1 win
Looking at the betting and frame of the race
I wouldn't criticise anyone considering her
In an each way double
But there is no doubt her profile is unsafe

November
Mares Novice Hurdles
Any and every distance
Horses with 1 career race
Running within 5 months
Have a 3-82 record
The only winners were 5 year olds over longer trips
Those aged 4 were 0-23
WHATDUHAVTOGET fails this 0-23 record
Those of any age racing over 2m 4f or less were 0-49
WHATDUHAVTOGET fails this 0-49 record

LA BAGUE AU ROI has the better profile
Only 2 horses ran with his profile
They finished 1st and 2nd
He is a year older
Those extra 4 Bumper runs he has
Give him an advantage in experience
Which is why he has the better profile

Selection

LA BAGUE AU ROI 10/11

Win Bet






U t t o x e t e r 12.30

11/4 Marquis Of Carabas, 5/1 Kafella 5/1 Report To Base
11/2 Champion Chase, 13/2 Supply And Demand,
25/1 Mortens Leam, 25/1 Winido, 25/1 Fit For Fifty,
25/1 Admiral´s Secret, Major Hindrance, 25/1 Spirit Of Hale
33/1 Champagne Benefit, 40/1 Cheque En Blanc
50/1 Big Chip And Pin.

2m Novice Hurdle
This may have to be an each way double race
REPORT TO BASE is an unraced 4yo
CHAMPION CHASE is an unraced 4yo
We can't know nearly enough about either
The race is full of unknown prospects
KAFELLA fell at the first on his hurdling debut
SUPPLY AND DEMAND has a chance
But hardly convincing and his stable are struggling

MARQUIS OF CARABAS is the interesting one
My hang up with him is his profile is unsafe
He drops from 2m 5f to 2m
No horse has won with his profile
Few tried though and none particularly fancied
I like his experience
He has Reasonable Numbers
He does come from a 0-140 Cheltenham handicap
When you consider his 2 biggest dangers
And unraced 4 year olds
I am more drawn to his profile
That said he can not be matched to a winner
And plenty of unraced 4 year olds win these races
And my statistics can not endorse him
So I am retreating towards the each way double
With a horse that runs in a few minutes

Selection

Uttoxeter 12.30 - MARQUIS OF CARABAS 7/4

Uttoxeter 1.05 - ROLLING DYLAN 7/4

Each Way Double




C h e l t e n h a m 12.40

2/1 Defi Du Seuil, 2/1 Wealth Des Mottes, 8/1 Diable De Sivola
8/1 Dino Velvet, 10/1 East Indies, 10/1 Nucky Thompson
20/1 Lambeau Field, 20/1 Red Hot Chilly, 33/1 Hazamar.

This is a Grade 2 Juvenile Hurdle
My statistics say there are no clear angles
They tell me I can not oppose inexperienced types
Much as that was my first instinct
I have looked at the numbers
They tell me this is a weak renewal
None of these have achieved much at all
Less than most past winners had done as well
So I think we have a weak renewal of this race
NUCKY THOMPSON sets the standard so far
He has a Racing Post Rating of only 112
The worst past winner managed a rating of 125
I would rather have a darker horse
A Big reputation horse from a major stable
WEALTH DES MOTTES is an obvious option
Trainer has said he needs time to grow up
He has had a few months to do that
I prefer DEFI DU SEUIL given the choice
He won a bad race but he has been out and won
He won easily and is far better than he has shown

Selection

Small Stakes

DEFI DU SEUIL 2/1

Win Bet if you can't stomach an each way bet
Each Way bet if you can




U t t o x e t e r 1.05

5/2 Rolling Dylan, 5/1 Above Board, 10/1 Beneagles
10/1 Shambougg, 10/1 Shrewd Tactics, 10/1 Sierra Oscar
14/1 Alfie´s Choice, 14/1 Duel At Dawn, 14/1 Field Marshall
14/1 Melrose Boy, 14/1 Zero Grand, 20/1 Abbotswood
20/1 Mr Mcgo, 25/1 Best Practice, 25/1 Coole Cody
33/1 Celtic Park, 50/1 Cave Top, 100/1 Next Lot.

2m 4f Maiden Hurdle

I am going for ROLLING DYLAN
But there are a few unrateable opponents
He does look at each way double bet to me
ROLLING DYLAN sets the standard
His Numbers are similar to past winners of this
I think he will probably win
He has experience and a career best last time
I made him a negative in his early hurdle runs
He failed an Indian River Breeding stat I like
It just makes his earlier hurdle form more creditable
I think there is a lot to like in a race with Deadwood
But as we can not rule out some unknown prospects
The each way double does offer safety

Selection

Hopefully we have an each way double running
With the 12.30 at Uttoxeter.

ROLLING DYLAN 2/1





C h e l t e n h a m 1.50

6/1 Minella Rocco, 7/1 Sausalito Sunrise, 8/1 Cogry
8/1 Upswing, 10/1 Fourth Act, 12/1 Beg To Differ, 12/1 Doctor Harper
12/1 Viconte Du Noyer, 14/1 Shotgun Paddy, 14/1 Un Ace
16/1 Any Currency, 16/1 Racing Pulse, 20/1 Alvarado
20/1 Le Reve, 20/1 Midnight Prayer, 20/1 Unioniste
]20/1 Warrantor.

This is a Graded Handicap Chase over 3m 3f
The race has 14 past renewals
Past winners had 5 7 12 4 6 9 6 11 28 19 40 Chase runs
Interesting 6 of the last 7 winners had under 10 Chase runs

If you look for horses aged 9 or more
You find 3 past winners and all had 10st 6lbs or less

Very much like the 2.25pm later today
There are powerful age and weight angles
In Decent Class handicaps at this track

Cheltenham Handicap Chases in November
Listed and Graded races since 2003
Horses aged 8 or more
Carrying 10st 7lbs or more
Have a miserable 1-156 record

The following horses have this problem

SAUSALITO SUNRISE- ANY CURRENCY
UNIONISTE - LE REVE - UN ACE
SHOTGUN PADDY - MIDNIGHT PRAYER

SAUSALITO SUNRISE won this last year
He had a prep run and a much lower weight last year year
I don't like 8yo seasonal debutants as I explain here

November and December
Handicap Chases since 2007
Any Distance
Listed and Graded races
There are 112 of these races
Horses aged 8 have a 24-347 record in these races
All 24 winners raced in the previous 54 days
Horses aged 8 absent more than 54 days are 0-111
SAUSALITO SUNRISE fails this 0-111 record
LE REVE fails this 0-111 record
DOCTOR HARPER fails this 0-111 record

ANY CURRENCY - Happy to avoid a 13yo debutant
UNIONISTE is 8 and has 11st 2lbs
He shares this worrying 1-156 statistic above
I wanted much more from his last run anyway

October November December
Cheltenham Handicap Chases
Listed and Graded Class races
Horses aged 9 or more were 7-214
The 7 winners had 10st 5lbs or less
Those aged 9 with 10st 6lbs or more were 0-145
These horses have this problem
SHOTGUN PADDY
MIDNIGHT PRAYER
ANY CURRENCY

UN ACE fails the earlier 1-156 statistic
I didn't see enough I liked about him
He didn't run as well as I'd want last time
He is 0-5 over 3m or more never placing
Never won in this class before
I have my doubts about him staying

UPSWING - 2nd in this race last year
He did have two good prep runs last year
This year just one run and he Pulled up
Thats not a good preparation
I suppose last years winner Pulled up beforehand
But he was the only one that did in all similar races
UPSWING's stable are on a long losing run as well
I would not feel safe risking him

MINELLA ROCCO is a 6yo
BEG TO DIFFER is a 6yo
I do have a dilemma here
The 2003 and 2006 winners were aged 6
But since 2007 here there has been a drought

Cheltenham Handicap Chases Since 2007
Run over 3m and further
Any Month of the year
Class 2 or higher
Horses aged 6 are 1-69 in these races
The only winner was The Package in 2009
He only had 10st weight

MINELLA ROCCO is only a 6yo
Has a big weight from a stable thats struggling as well
He won the 4 miler at Cheltenham last festival
I can't presume he will be fit enough to win this

BEG TO DIFFER has the same problem
He is also 6 and trained by Jonjo O'Neill
But he is sexy with impeccable owners
And looks well handicapped off 143
Very interesting if here to win
But is that the plan or is another target ?


POSSIBLES

WARRANTOR is a 7yo debutant
I would pass his profile as fine
Not sure he has the class to win this first time
Or the Jumping ability or the stamina
His sires runners in Class 2 races or higher
Have a 0-31 record over 3m 1f and more
I think he is a player
But I think his stamina could give in

VICONTE DU NOYER is a 7yo debutant
Profile fine but never raced over 2m 5f or more
I'd be worried about stamina here as well
His sire hasn't bred a winner over this far yet
He isn't the biggest of horses either

RACING PULSE ran once this year
He unseated his rider at the 8th fence
Thats now 4 Chase races in a row
Where he has not shown much form
He does not convince me right now
There is a definite stamina doubt as well

COGRY is 7 and fell at the first last time
That effectively makes him a 7yo seasonal debutant
No problem at all with his profile
COGRY is well treated these days
Still quite a young horse as well
My main worry would be how ready he is
No surprise if he ends up in the Welsh National
Not easy to risk him on his seasonal debut
He is not a big horse which is a problem here
Maybe thats why he has never won outside a small field
Personally I don't like him
But 2 past winners had his profile

DOCTOR HARPER - He is an 8yo debutant
I fail him statistically because of that
But I am inclined to overlook that with him
His trainer is always significant at this meeting
He has bust many stats at this meeting
The horse is a cheap saver
He also goes well fresh and has a light weight

FOURTH ACT is a 7yo
Decent enough run this season
I don't mind his profile with some issues
He has yet to prove he stays
He does not have a safe breeding profile
Kings Theatre runners over 3m 2f or more
In Listed and Graded Class are just 1-70
He probably needs a bit of improvement too
And he is not proven in a big field either

SHOTGUN PADDY is a 9yo debutant
With 10st 8lbs he does fail some earlier weight stats
But he only just fails them by a couple of pounds
He was 5th in this race last year on his seasonal debut
As an 8yo his profile was poor last year
He has less weight and a lower handicap mark
This could be a Welsh National prep run
But dangerous to rule this horse out

ALVARADO is a 11yo seasonal debutant
I can pass that profile as fine
The 2007 winner was a seasonal debutant aged 11
He was also a lightweight as ALVARADO is
Last won in 2013 when taking this race as an 8yo
He has raced just sparsely since then
He has won off absences of 133 164 209 days before
That offers some encouragement
He was 4th in the 2015 Grand National
He missed the cut last year rated just too low
Connections will need to win this year before Aintree
To get him a chance of running again
I like his chance despite obvious risks
There are lots of recent articles about him
Saying he is well, more forward this year
Impressed in a racecourse gallop
All the usual nonsense of course
But he has finished 4th in a Grand National
With just 1 run in the previous 4 months
Which is an astonishing run
And shows he can come to hand early
and although I like my others on the shortlist
They do fail statistics and he does not.


Will some of these stay
CORGY and FOURTH ACT might not
Their sires record is not strong at all
Neither is UPSWING's sire

Do UPSWINGs connections want to win ?
Are they targeting the Festival in March ?
Are they targeting the Welsh National

Do they want CORGY want to win ?
Do they want SHOTGUN PADDY want to win
Do they want to risk a big welsh national weight ?

Selection

ALVARADO 20/1

£2.50 Each Way Bet


£1 SHOTGUN PADDY 10/1

£1 DOCTOR HARPER 11/1

£1 FOURTH ACT 10/1

£1 UPSWING 11/1

£1 CORGY 8/1




C h e l t e n h a m 2.25

9/2 More Of That, 6/1 Frodon, 8/1 Double Shuffle
10/1 As De Mee, 10/1 Taquin Du Seuil, 12/1 Art Mauresque
12/1 Bouvreuil, 16/1 Buywise, 16/1 Sizing Platinum
16/1 Village Vic, 20/1 Annacotty, 20/1 Aso, 20/1 Potters Cross
20/1 Sizing Granite, 25/1 Ballynagour, 25/1 Vintage Vinnie
33/1 Tenor Nivernais, 33/1 Thomas Crapper.

The Betvictor Gold Cup
This is a graded chase over 2m 4f
Formerly known as the Paddy Power Gold Cup

November and December
Cheltenham
Handicap Chases
Class 2 and Higher
Horses aged 9 or more
Carrying more than 11st weight
There is a miserable record with these horses
Since 2004 they have a 0-114 record
The last winners to do it were both in 2003
They were Cenkos and Lord Noelie 13 years ago
In fields of 9 or more these types were 0-116

The Following horses have this problem

BALLYNAGOUR
TAQUIN DU SEUIL
VILLAGE VIC
BUYWISE
TENOR NIVERNAIS

BALLYNAGOUR is the oldest horse aged 10
With an absence and high weight not for me

I am against the 9yo seasonal debutants
TENOR NIVERNAIS is a 9yo debutant
He is more exposed than I would want anyway
Hard to see him competitive on this ground
If you look at his trainer Venetia Williams
Her November runners at Cheltenham
Have a 0-58 record going back to 2004

VILLAGE VIC is a 9yo debutant
It is his handicap mark I object too most
His best win came from a rating of 144
That was in January 2016
He then flopped at Cheltenham and Aintree
VILLAGE VIC is now rated 155
Thats much higher than he has ever faced in a handicap
He started last season rated 125
Now rated 155 I can't trust he has the ability
He fails some big age/weight stats later too

BUYWISE was 3rd in this race in 2014
He was 2nd in this race in 2015
He deserves respect on those grounds alone
But he is older now as a 9yo
His prep run was not as good this year
Never really seen him as comfortable in this race
He prefers smaller fields and is not well handicapped

TAQUIN DU SEUIL is a 9yo with 11st 11lbs
We know no horse his age has won with his weight
The last 9yo winner was back in 2002
He is a Cheltenham Festival winner though
If you look at horses aged 8 or more
In this race since 2003 they have a 1-108 record
That winner had 17lbs less weight

This worries me as well
Cheltenham Handicap Chases in November
Listed and Graded races since 2003
Horses aged 8 or more
Carrying 10st 7lbs or more
Have a miserable 1-156 record
TAQUIN DU SEUIL fails this age/weight stat
These horses all fail it as well

BALLYNAGOUR - ANNACOTTY - BUYWISE
VILLAGE VIC - TENOR NIVERNAIS
MORE OF THAT the favourite also fails it
SIZING GRANITE and SIZING PLATINUM fail it

What this does is show how well horses under 8 have done
And how horses aged 8 + have struggled

October November December
Cheltenham Handicap Chases
Listed and Graded Class races

Horses aged 9 or more were 7-214
The 7 winners had 10st 5lbs or less
They all won in races beyond 3 miles
Those aged 9 with 10st 6lbs or more were 0-145
Those aged 9 running shorter than 3 miles were 0-98
These horses have this problem
BALLYNAGOUR - TAQUIN DU SEUIL
VILLAGE VIC - BUYWISE - TENOR NIVERNAIS

These angles are Forcing us to younger horses

Horses aged 8 have not done well
They have only won 3 renewals since 1993
Since 2002 Horses aged 8 were just 1-60
If you look at the 3 winners aged 8 since 1993
They all ran within the previous 2 weeks
They were either 1st or 2nd last time out
Seasonal debutants aged 8 have struggled
In the last 18 renewals they were 0-32
The last 8yo to win first time out was before 1988
I like to oppose 8yo debutants in all similar races

November and December
Handicap Chases since 2007
Any Distance
Listed and Graded races
There are 112 of these races

Horses aged 8 have a 24-347 record in these races
All 24 winners raced in the previous 54 days
Horses aged 8 absent more than 54 days are 0-111
The Following horses are rejected

MORE OF THAT fails this 0-111 statistic
SIZING GRANITE fails this 0-111 statistic
ANNACOTTY fails this 0-111 statistic

We know the 24 winners aged 8 had recent runs
We also know None had under 4 Chase starts
All 13 that did were beaten
MORE OF THAT has this against him as well
ANNACOTTY did win this last year
But is a far weaker age this year
He also has considerably more to do at the weights

ART MAURESQUE was 6th in last years race
He is 9lbs higher this year having won his last 2 races
His Handicap mark and weight worries me
ART MAURESQUE is 6 and he has 11st 8lbs this year
History shows that is a tough task
No 6yo has won with 11st 3lbs or more since 1960
ART MAURESQUE has 8lbs more weight than that

POTTERS CROSS looks out of his depth
VINTAGE VINNIE has 3 recent runs
Well beaten last time this Grade is too tough

ASO is also trained by Venetia Williams
He also fails those poor 0-58 trainer stats
He is a 6yo and there were 4 winners his age
They won from ratings of 136 138 139 139
ASO has to defy a rating of 144 more than any of them
I have to see him as an unlikely winner

BOUVREUIL is a 5yo
Fully effective at this track and respected
He is down the Paul Nicholls Pecking order though
Given his owner and 2 second places at the Festival
BOUVREUIL may well be aimed at the March meeting
He could easily win
I just have others I prefer

Shortlist

DOUBLE SHUFFLE is a 6yo
Has an acceptable enough profile
Past 6 year old winners were rated 136 138 139 139
DOUBLE SHUFFLE rated 145 has a bit more to do
Has enough to be shortlisted though

FRODON is a 4yo
I don't have a problem with 4 year olds
I see them as neutral positives
The ground and weather complicate things
I always liked him as a saver and still feel that way

AS DE MEE is a 6yo
Raced once this year winning that race
Past 6 year old winners were rated 136 138 139 139
AS DE MEE is a nice match with a rating of 139
His last win was Bloodless though
His 2 main rivals were chasing debutants
AS DE MEE has just won 1 of 9 Chase starts as well
But I like his handicap mark of 139
His Numbers suggest he should be able to win off 139
AS DE MEE does have a breeding issue to overcome
Horses sired by Kapgarde
Running in Chases
Distances of 2m 1f or more
When running in Listed or Graded races
There is a 0-38 record with these horses
AS DE MEE has this 0-38 problem
Thats a worry but several did go close
What swings it for me is his Handicap Mark
AS DE MEE races off 139
His Chase Racing Post Ratings are these
144 146 146 0 153 148 128 141 128
Many tines his numbers dwarf his handicap mark
There is no scientific correlation between the two
But I see that as a good sign that he can win off 139

THOMAS CRAPPER is a 33/1 wild card
Beaten 14 days ago by 32 lengths
Two heavy recent defeats
Normally I would throw up at such a profile
I just want a nibble on him as a wild card
He has some excuses on right handed tracks
He is a far better horse going left handed
He made a noise last time at Ascot
Connections have gone for a tongue strap
If that solves his breathing of other problems
Then he is a very well handicapped horse
THOMAS CRAPPER only has a rating of 134
He has considerably better Racing Post Ratings
He has a good track record
He is effective at this time of year
He has won in a big field before
He's been 2nd at 2 Cheltenham Festivals
He delivers here more often than not
And if he runs his best he can win this

Selection

£4.50 Each Way AS DE MEE 7/1

£1.00 Win Bet FRODON 8/1-9/1

THOMAS CRAPPER 33/1 (Small 2nd saver 40/1)





L i n g f i e l d 2.35

11/8 Equinette, 7/4 Beauden Barrett, 11/2 La Fortuna
11/1 Wattaboutsteve, 14/1 Hangman Jury, 20/1 Secret Striker
33/1 Little Lizzie, 33/1 Rigsby, 40/1 Mistry.

All aged maiden over 6f
You can not trust any of these
Some very poor looking horses
EQUINETTE sets the standard on 2yo form
Hammered 48 lengths last time when said to be in season

BEAUDEN BARRETT has raced once
LA FORTUNA has raced once
I have to prefer BEAUDEN BARRETT of the two
He has a 12lbs higher Racing Post Rating than La Fortuna
He is a male horse and she is female
And he cost 140k and La Fortuna cost only £1500

Fillies like LA FORTUNA with 1 run are 0-19

If you look at Male 3 year olds
1 previous run
Running 19-32 days ago
Coming from a 6f maiden
Beaten under 15 lengths last time
You find a promising 3-6 record
BEAUDEN BARRETT has this 3-6 profile
Take out horses over 14/1
The profile then becomes a W W W profile

I am not convinced
And I don't like the stable at all
But BEAUDEN BARRETT has to be my selection

HANGMAN JURY could be worth a speculative bet
Small stakes. His profile is Not safe at all down from 8f
But no chance he could have stayed on either of his runs
Down from 8f to 6f after an absence
He may just have a chance
This is nothing more than a hunch and hope
I would split this race

£9 Win BEAUDEN BARRETT 13/8

£1 Win HANGMAN JURY 12/1


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