0 Bets today
0 Negative
6 Races Discussed


The Flat season returns tomorrow and not before time.
I prefer the evening cards today but I have not pushed
for a detailed message. The afternoon racing is rubbish
and to be honest this message is disappointing as well.

The Newbury card is littered with horses who have had
interrupted campaigns trying to salvage something from
their seasons. Not many races that interested me at all
today so decided to aim for this shorter Friday evening
message. The last 10 Saturday messages have been so
effective with only 1 losing bet in that time and several
decent winners. Recently I've targeted Saturdays and
sometimes Friday suffers as a result and this message
is an example of that. There's not enough improvement
from yesterdays. We are going through without taking
a break now for all of next week so no point rushing to
stake anything that's not good enough for the account.



Today's Bet

No Bet Today





T o d a y s M e s s a g e

Statistic's for tomorrow's Lincoln are at the end of this
message but the race won't be given much coverage on
Saturday and I will probably just produce a shortlist.

It's a very bland message today
The All weather lingers on like a Cold you can't shake off
Without Dundalk the message would be dead

There are only 2 horses I wanted to suggest

Wetherby 5.00 - RAILWAY DILLON 6/4

Dundalk 6.30 - ZILBIYR 5/2

I was looking at going with ZILBIYR each way 7/2
as the days best bet but he has shortened now and
that has taken a lot of shine off the bet. I think we
could place both of these together in an e/w double.


Todays Best Bet

Wetherby 5.00 - RAILWAY DILLON 6/4

Dundalk 6.30 - ZILBIYR 5/2

Each Way Double




N e g a t i v e s

No Negative Today

Results of Negatives
22 correct bets from 29




T h u r s d a y s R e v i e w

Yesterday was a No Bet comeback message with
just 3 previews. We did not have much luck in the
first two. PRESTO BOY just went down in a photo
beaten a neck and MARKET OPTION fell early.
We didn't do anything wrong there just didn't get
the rub of the green. The third preview failed and
none of the 3 main previews delivered any winner.
The mini previews did good but instinct served us
well in terms of not having any official staked bets.




P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s


W e t h e r b y 5.00

Evs Thetalkinghorse, 6/4 Railway Dillon
10/1 Grouse Lodge, 14/1 Code Blue
16/1 Wizadora.

Hunter Chase
Initially I wanted to be with THETALKINGHORSE
Lighter raced improver offering the most
But I had a rethink and changed my mind
THETALKINGHORSE's profile is not great
It was a maiden hunter he ran in last time
He didn't even manage to win that
And he is also being ridden by a 19yo boy

RAILWAY DILLON has a more experience jockey
He is an older exposed type
He has ability though and some decent numbers
Instinct tempts me to go with the improver
But all my data pushes me the other way
His last run doesn't worry me
I feel he bounced and has won many times after bad runs

Selection

RAILWAY DILLON

Win Bet 6/4




D u n d a l k 6.00

4/1 Tilly Trotter, 9/2 Celerity
9/2 Joyce Compton, 6/1 It´s Your Turn
7/1 Gifted Lady, 10/1 Fluorescent Rock
10/1 Grecian Divine, 12/1 Fox Dream
16/1 Davaria, 16/1 Kissykissy.

2yo maiden over 5f
Most of these are unraced
TILLY TROTTER has had a run
But his Racing Post Rating was miserable
Normally I would not entertain a horse like her
Not well beaten recently and a 41 R.P.Rating
But I made her a negative on her debut
Unraced filly drawn 1 at the Curragh was a problem
So I rate her considerably better than that
And she is one of just 2 with experience
Whether she can improve enough to win is debatable
But TILLY TROTTER could well be a good each way bet
You may find something to beat her
But I will be disappointed if 3 horses do
If you look at unraced horses drawn 7 or more
They are just 1-58 since 2009
GRECIAN DIVINE has this problem
CELEBRITY also has this problem
If this statistic works out
It will improve TILLY TROTTER's chances

Selection

TILLY TROTTER 11/4

Each Way



W o l v e r h a m p t o n 6.15

6/4 Destroyer, 13/8 Semana Santa
6/1 Secret Sonnet, 8/1 John Joiner
10/1 Royal Blossom.

This is an all aged maiden over 6f

DESTROYER is entitled to win this race
But you have to rely on his trainer to get him fit
William Muir is not a trainer I like doing this

The 2nd and 3rd favourites
Are 3yo fillies with just 1 career start
In all similar races in March and April
Fillies aged 3 with just 1 run this year are 5-81
None of these came from a 5f race
SEMANA SANTA has this problem
None were beaten over 6 lengths last time (0-59)
SECRET SONNET faces this problem

JOHN JOINER is hard to like as a 4yo
When his numbers are so poor
ROYAL BLOSSOM is an unraced filly
In 5f 6f 3yo maidens here January to May
Unraced fillies struggle just 1 of 73 winning

SEMANA SANTA doesn't appeal to me from a weak sire
His sires best horse has a Racing Post Rating of 78
That is not a very high standard
If you look at the sires runners over 5f and 6f
Those with under 3 career starts are 0-33 so far
SEMANA SANTA probably wont handle DESTOYER
The market does not agree with this position
The market tells me SEMANA SANTA is the one
But DESTROYER does have the better profile
It all depends on his trainer having him fit
Not something I'd rely on for anymore than a small bet

Selection

DESTROYER 7/4

Win Bet



D u n d a l k 6.30

2/1 Long Island Sound, 7/2 Whiskey Zulu
9/2 Zilbiyr, 8/1 Pure Happiness, 9/1 New Classicism
12/1 Eshaan, 12/1 My Fantasea, 12/1 Saga Sprint
16/1 Haqeeba, 25/1 Raconteur, 33/1 Bonfire Bank
33/1 Phebes Dream, 50/1 Karulina, 66/1 Digger Dandy.

This is a 3yo maiden over a Mile

LONG ISLAND SOUND comes from Aidan O'Brien
I've looked at the sire War Front
He has never had a debutant winner over 8f or more
All 10 unraced War Fronts have lost on debut
The stable can always leave debutants short of work
I'd rather go each way against him

RACONTEUR is unsafe
I don't want an unraced Acclamation over a mile
SAGA SPRINT may have too much to find

WHISKEY ZULU is an each way option
Dissapointed last time but should go well
I prefer the horse that finished ahead of him last time

That was ZILBIYR who was 2nd
ZILBIYR was badly drawn last time
Put in a career best from a bad draw
I think he can take this

Selection

ZILBIYR 5/2

Win Bet






D u n d a l k 7.30

6/4 Washington Dc, 5/2 Most Beautiful
7/1 Al Mohalhal, 8/1 French Blue, 10/1 Gift Wrap
10/1 Sevenleft, 12/1 Alphonsus
33/1 Madame Thunder, 66/1 Lilliard.

This is a Listed race for 3yo's over 7f

WASHINGTON DC is the highest rated horse
I don't feel I can trust him first time out
Aidan O'Brien's comments were interesting
He openly declared this horse would improve for a run
Yet he also went further than that
He said he would also improve for his next run
Does that imply he is some way off fitness ?
Quite possibly as when this horse went to Ascot
Paddock Watchers said he was a "sizeable colt"
There must be a good chance he is not fit

MOST BEAUTIFUL seems a reasonable alternative
Rated 107 and a well regarded prospect

I can not have FRENCH BLUE a filly with 1 run
IS it likely a filly with just 1 run
Will beat a 107 rated MOST BEAUTIFUL ?
Look at FRENCH BLUE's sire Iffraaj
Look at his pattern race winners
That had under 2 career starts
The only winner he has had was over 5f
GIFT WRAP was last seen winning a Nursery
She could improve but she needs to
I felt exactly the same about AL MOHALHAL

Selection

MOST BEAUTIFUL 11/4

Each Way




D u n d a l k 8.00

4/1 Tom Dooley, 5/1 Our Manekineko
6/1 Coreczka, 13/2 Tsar Paul, 7/1 Pierre D´or
7/1 Twistsandturns, 8/1 Sofi´s Spirit, 10/1 Mo Henry
12/1 Doonard Prince, 12/1 Herewego
12/1 Pushingmypatience, 14/1 Mile Buiochas
25/1 War Room.

This is a 7f handicap
Low Grade and I shouldn't be doing it
But I did have to mention a stat I found recently

I'd call it a Compound Draw Statistic
It essentially looks at high drawn horses
But when they are compounded with another problem
That being Claiming Jockeys

Go back to 2012
Dundalk 7f races
Horses ridden by any Claimer
When Drawn in Stall 10 or higher
I came out with a miserable 1-170 record
That was an unraced horse in a maiden (Emperor Bob)
The record in handicaps is 0-129

TOM DOOLEY has this problem Drawn 10 with a Claimer
HEREWEGO also has this problem as well
MO HENRY fails this draw statistic as well
CORECZKA also fails it as well

I've looked at all similar races
7f Handicaps in March and April for 0-70 or lower
Horses aged 7 absent over 5 months are 0-68
DOONARD PRINCE fails this stat and is opposed
If you look at all 7f races here since 2012
Horses drawn 14 have a weak 1-48 record
TWISTSANDTURNS may well have a bad draw
WAR ROOM doesn't offer enough
SOFI´S SPIRIT was hammered 6 days ago
Too big a defeat too recently for comfort
I looked at 4yo fillies first time out
Two of them won but had 7 and 10 runs
MILE BUIOCHAS only has 4 runs so is rejected
PUSHINGMYPATIENCE - Just doesn't offer enough

Shortlist

TSAR PAUL- He is 11 but has a good recent run

OUR MANEKINEKO - Needs to be respected

PIERRE D´OR - Massive gamble. New Stable. Well treated


Selection

£4 Win TSAR PAUL 14/1

£4 Win OUR MANEKINEKO 7/1

£2 Win PIERRE D´OR 5/1

Minimum Stakes here





Lincoln Handicap (Saturday)

The Lincoln Handicap is over a 8f at Doncaster

Recent winners were aged as follows
6 5 5 6 6 4 4 4 5 6 4 4 4 6 5 5 5
Horses aged 7 or more have a 1-80 record in this race
All 53 that ran in the last 11 years were beaten

March-April Class 2 handicaps on turf over 8f
There are 82 of these races since 2000
Horses aged 7 or more had a miserable 2-206 record
None of them had form in Group races before

Horses aged 6 or more had a poor 10-402 record
The vast majority were seasonal debutants.
Look at 6 year olds that ran within the previous 90 days
Only 1 managed to win from 201 that tried

Looking at the record of 4 year olds in this race
4 year olds have won 7 of the last 17 renewals
Horses aged 4 are best with 4-20 starts
Those that raced in the last 3 months perform poorly
Since 1998 horses aged 4 with recent runs are 0-30
Horses aged 4 tested in Listed Grade or higher are 1-71
Fillies aged 4 are 0-7 in the last 17 years
None of the 4 year old winners came from a 3yo handicap
None of the 4 year old winners lost 10 + lengths last time

Looking now at 5 year olds
No 5yo winners ran in an English Group race before
The Lincoln winner rarely has English Group Class form
There are 124 that tried and only one managed to do it
The only winner that did that was Babodana (2004)

Horses with under 4 runs have a 0-7 record in this race
Horses with 21 + runs won 8 of the last 22 renewals
6 of the 8 were seasonal debutants
None of these carried 9st 5lbs or more
None of them had raced in Group Class before

Horses from the All Weather this season won 7 races
4 of the 7 winners had 15 or fewer career starts
The other came 3 from the sand in Dubai
The 4 that ran in England on sand all ran within 15 days
These 4 horses were aged 5 5 4 5
None were beaten more than 4 lengths last time
None came from 7f or shorter
They all had 8st 11lbs or less
Horses absent 15-90 days That ran in England have a 0-66 record
Horses running within 15 days won 4 renewals.
These were Male horses Aged 4 or 5 with 5-20 runs
They also Placed in a Class 2 handicap last time
They also ran over at least a mile and had under 9st
No past winners came from a Class 4-5-6 handicap last time out
Horses from 6f races won in 1994 and 1995
Both were seasonal debutants aged 4 or 5 and had 8st 6lbs or less
Horses that came from 9f or more won 5 of the last 11 races
No horse won this coming from a 3 year old handicap before


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