0 Bet today
0 Negative
8 Previews


4 meetings
8 previews

Exeter 2 races
Kempton 3 races
Wolverhampton 2 races
Redcar 1 race






T o d a y s M e s s a g e

Likely that we will go all week without a break
Today there are price and staking issues
Judging what is worth it and what is not


Kempton 7.10

MAZZINI 7/4 - 15/8 - 2/1

Confident he is the best horse in the race
The problem is slower ground at Kempton
There is a track bias and it is quite obvious
This does increase the chance of him losing
I am not that familiar with Kempton right now
I have been ignoring it since they refurbished in July
The ground has ridden slow since then
So I have paid it little attention
So if the race is not run to suit him.....
Put it this way. I wont risk a short priced loser
On a track that is riding the way it is
But I am more than happy to make him my best bet
MAZZINI is my best bet today


There are other bets at similar prices
That I could quite easily lump together
These 3 horses all look each way double options

Exeter 1.50 RESOLUTION BAY 2/1

Wolverhampton 4.00 STANLEY 11/8

Kempton 5.10 - BLACK BOLT 2/1

I could add MAZZINI to this list as well
I'm not going to go down that route myself

STANLEY and MAZZINI do look interesting
I'd be happy to have an each way double on these

I could have an each way single

Wolverhampton 2.00

LIFE ON MARS 11/4

Each Way

It is one of those days
Where the prices of the selections
And the frame of the races they are in
Raise the possibility of too many different options
Too many different type of bets
Too many radical staking options
Which is why I shan't bother staking any today
It is just a complicated staking day

I can always make it less complicated
And take out 4 of the previews of course
But I will leave it as it is without a bet.




Today's Bet

No Staked Bet





Daily Negatives

No Negative Today
Results of Negatives
27 correct bets from 38





P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s


E x e t e r 1.20

13/8 Swoop To Conquer, 15/8 Murifield
9/4 Bistouri D´honore, 16/1 Plantagenet
25/1 Hoo Bally Diva, 66/1 Fit As A Fiddle.

Novice Hurdle over 2m 5f
I was going to oppose the Non runner
The race has changed now
6 runners and 3 look to stand out

Exeter have 17 similar Novice Hurdles in Oct/Nov
Interesting that 4 year olds are 0-29 in these races
BISTOURI D´HONORE is a 4yo
SWOOP TO CONQUER is a 4yo
PLANTAGENET is also a 4yo

If you look at the 17 Exeter races
We had 6 unraced winners
We had 10 seasonal debutant winners
Only 1 winner with a recent race
Horses that raced in the past 3 months
Had a pretty poor 1-71 record in these races
BISTOURI D´HONORE has that recent race

You can only guess here
There are 3 horses dominating the market
2 of these are 4 year olds (0-29 in this race)
They are Both coming from Bumpers

If I look at similar races in October-November
4 year olds running in the past 4 months
Coming from a Bumper
There is a 3-70 record
Those who were beaten last time were 1-59
Those beaten over 3 lengths last time were 0-49
BISTOURI D´HONORE has this profile

SWOOP TO CONQUER has the better profile of the two
But this race has been dominated by different types
By 5-6 year old seasonal debutants
MURIFIELD has that profile

In Reverse Order

BISTOURI D´HONORE is my 3rd choice
SWOOP TO CONQUER my second choice
MURIFIELD is my 1st choice

Selection

MURIFIELD 9/4

Win Bet





E x e t e r 1.50

3/1 Resolution Bay, 7/2 Citrus, 4/1 Double Treasure
4/1 Poisoned Berry, 7/1 Magnus Romeo, 14/1 Flighty Filia
16/1 Chantecler, 33/1 Brean Golf Birdie
33/1 Captain Bonsai.

Novice Hurdle just short of 2m 1f
I think we have some dodgy profiles here
We have a 4yo filly with a nasty absence
Two horses hammered with recent runs

POISONED BERRY is a 4yo filly
With a 62 day absence I have reservations
Fillies aged 4
1 previous Hurdle run
Beaten in that race
Running this season
The only 4yo fillies to win with this profile
Ran within the past 26 days
Those that did not had a 0-47 record
POISONED BERRY fails this 0-47 profile
She has 62 days off which worries me for a 4yo filly
FLIGHTY FILIA is a 4yo filly
No National Hunt form I don't like her profile

DOUBLE TREASURE was a weak profile
He was beaten 16 lengths only 9 days ago
CITRUS was beaten 33 lengths just 7 days ago
Neither have safe profiles
I can find a winner back in 2005 (Davys Luck)
Who was similar to DOUBLE TREASURE
But she was a mare and not close enough a match
If I look at 4 year olds
Running within 12 days
Beaten more than 15 lengths last time
3 or more career starts
I find a 0-94 record from these horses
CITRUS has this 0-94 record
CHANTECLER is not easy to fancy
So far none like him won but few have tried (0-4)

RESOLUTION BAY has the only Safe profile
He may be useless and unfit
Or he could be a machine and rippling fit
We can't know but purely on profiles
He is the only sensible option

Selection

RESOLUTION BAY 2/1

Win Bet





W o l v e r h a m p t o n 2.00

9/4 Western Presence, 3/1 Impassioned, 7/2 Life On Mars
9/2 Alice´s Dream, 14/1 Magic Journey, 14/1 Silk Mill Blue
20/1 The Night Is Ours, 22/1 Permanent
25/1 Arthurthedelegator 50/1 I Dare To Dream.

This is a 7f Nursery

IMPASSIONED is my best negative
I don't see him staying this far
He could prove me wrong but I doubt it
I don't consider him a threat

WESTERN PRESENCE isn't certain to stay either

MAGIC JOURNEY doesn't have good numbers
PERMANENT isn't running well enough

If I look at fillies from 7f handicaps
Running 3-4 weeks ago
4 Career starts
Starting under 25/1
I find a solid enough 3-12 record
LIFE ON MARS has this profile

ALICE´S DREAM could be annoying
Worth considering as a saver
WESTERN PRESENCE will be a threat if he stays
Profile solid but breeding stats not so clear

LIFE ON MARS has the best chance for me
You could bet her win or each way
Depending on your preference

Selection

LIFE ON MARS 11/4

Each Way





R e d c a r 3.40

7/2 Jan De Heem, 5/1 Adrakhan, 5/1 Social Media
7/1 Ryan The Giant, 8/1 Buzz Boy, 8/1 Triple Eight
10/1 Hint Of Grey, 14/1 Yasir, 16/1 Cavalieri
16/1 Perennial, 25/1 Sr Swing.

This is a low grade handicap over 1m 4f
There are 97 similar races in October/November

These horses have weak profiles
BUZZ BOY - No winners came from 8f or shorter
I don't want a mixture of inexperience and an absence
I looked at every winner absent more than 6 weeks
They all had at least 14 career starts
Those absent more than 6 weeks with under 14 runs
Had a miserable 0-94 record
SOCIAL MEDIA has this problem and is a filly
SR SWING also has this problem as well
HINT OF GREY is a 3yo filly
With only 1 run in 126 days I see her as unsafe
YASIR - I needed a better last run
PERENNIAL hasn't won in years

CAVALIERI - Average profile no better
TRIPLE EIGHT - Fair chance but I'd prefer a recent run
All the winners his age had more recent runs

JAN DE HEEM has every chance
But he will have to prove he stays
His sire hasn't had a winner softer than good over this far
RYAN THE GIANT has the same problem

ADRAKHAN could be the safest option

Selection

ADRAKHAN 6/1

Each Way




Wolverhampton 4.00

11/10 Alf Guineas, 6/4 Stanley, 9/1 Sehail
10/1 Spinart, 16/1 Angelical, 20/1 Macksville
33/1 Deeley´s Double, 33/1 Dinsdale, 100/1 Jackblack
150/1 Look Who´s There.

Maiden race just short of 10f
ALF GUINEAS was hammered very recently
No doubt there were excuses
But 108 lengths ís an outrageous defeat

July to December since 2006
9f and 10f maiden races
Horses aged 3
Coming from 12f race
Under 4 career starts
Beaten over 10 lengths last time out
I find a 0-197 record with these horses
ALF GUINEAS has this 0-197 record
I can't give him the benefit of the doubt
STANLEY surely has to be the better bet

Selection

STANLEY 11/8

Win Bet





K e m p t o n 5.10

7/2 Black Bolt, 4/1 Power Home, 8/1 Evening Hill
8/1 Prosecution, 10/1 Chough, 10/1 Pleasure Requested
10/1 Royal Sentiment, 10/1 Sajah, 12/1 Elusive Olivia
14/1 Bahamian Paradise, 16/1 Ede´s E Rider
33/1 Forest Steps, 33/1 Highland Clearance
33/1 Settle Petal.

This is a 2yo maiden over 7f

BLACK BOLT the favourite has ran once
Racing Post Rating of only 52
I would not be confident had he done a 72
So my first reaction was to oppose him

However I think that's not a good idea
He probably wan not fit or fancied on his debut
It was a hot maiden on a Grade 1 track
And he is probably capable of significantly more

There are also some dodgy looking opponents
I looked at the sires in this race
Their record with Unraced 2 year olds over 7f or more

EVENING HILL's sire is 0-18 with these types
That makes me question his stamina
EDE´S E RIDER's sire is 0-24 with these types
SAJAH is far from certain to get home on her debut
PLEASURE REQUESTED wouldn't me my choice
I don't like his sires record with debutants over 7f +
I don't see many suitable unraced horses
Beginning to see the experienced horses as safer
Albeit without setting much of a standard

Shortlist

Any well backed unraced horse can be considered
I have to side with the experienced horses though
BLACK BOLT
POWER HOME
Given a lot of these may not get home
I am asking myself if 3 horses can beat the favourite

Selection

BLACK BOLT 2/1






Kempton 5.40

8f Nursery
I thought about doing this race
But it is too difficult given the track conditions
I would have opposed Primrose Place
Far from convinced she will stay a mile
No Preview






K e m p t o n 6.40

2/1 Captain Courageous, 3/1 Candesta, 5/1 Ebbisham
6/1 Gavarnie Encore, 10/1 Freddy With A Y
10/1 Saleh, 14/1 Suitsus, 20/1 Welsh Inlet.

Low Grade Mile Handicap

We have a couple of 3 year olds with just 3 runs
This includes the well backed favourite
My angles do not like this profile

Horses aged 3
Coming from a Maiden
Beaten last time
Under 4 career starts
Horses with this profile won 3 races
However.....
Those that raced over 8f or shorter were 0-72
Those who raced in the past 6 weeks were 0-47

CAPTAIN COURAGEOUS fails both those angles
SALEH also fails both those angles

The Danger here is getting dragged into a race
We shouldn't especially with other dodgy profiles.

Shortlist

CANDESTA is shortlistable

GAVARNIE ENCORE has the best profile
But he is trained by Michael Blanshard
The thought of relying on that stable is hideous

EBBISHAM - Not too bad a profile
Despite an absence I can find winners like him

Low Stakes race

A lack of trust everywhere

GAVARNIE ENCORE 9/2 Half Stakes

EBBISHAM 9/1 Half Stakes



K e m p t o n 7.10

3/1 Mazzini, 4/1 Tailwind, 5/1 Brilliant Vanguard
11/2 Interlink, 7/1 Fang, 10/1 Field Of Vision
16/1 Rio Ronaldo, 16/1 September Issue
20/1 Bahamian Heights, 20/1 Pandar, 25/1 Picture Dealer
25/1 Townsville.

MAZZINI is very interesting
I opposed him at Ascot last time
He had won a 0-76 handicap
He was then unlucky in a 0-83 race
But He was in a 0-103 at Ascot
It was 2 Grades higher than his previous race
And the ground was softer than he wanted

MAZZINI was still a very creditable 3rd
Today he drops in Class from a 0-103 to a 0-85
That looks much more like it
And some of his rivals seem to have a lot to prove

TAILWIND for one has raced just once this year
He is very lightly raced even for a 3yo
Just 1 poor run since last December worries me
I can't match him to a winner
I would much rather have MAZZINI of the pair

INTERLINK has only won a maiden last time
It took him 4 races to win that maiden
MAZZINI has placed in a 0-103 handicap
I will be a little surprised if he is good enough
His sires runners are far better over further than 6f
SEPTEMBER ISSUE is 3 and absent 96 days
FANG comes from a very weak stable

BRILLIANT VANGUARD I would see as a danger
Cheap saver but I do like MAZZINI best of all


Selection

£8.50 Win Bet MAZZINI 7/4

£1.50 Win Bet BRILLIANT VANGUARD 5/1

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