0 Bet today
0 Negative
11 Previews

Shergar Cup day and only one race covered
there at this contrived meeting. It's basically
a typically competitive Saturday and I have
tried to focus on some of the friendlier races
but there are few of those. I have been below
my best this week and inconsistent so I feel
we should have a blank Saturday with no bet.


My interpretation of today's message is this


Concentrate on the races that are after 5pm
Ignore the early stuff and stay with late work
Stay with the Top of the message

I am highlighting 3 races as significant
My Best two Bets are identical

Lingfield 5.20
Kilbeggan 6.30

Strange Coincidences between these races
Both are second favourites
Both take on long odds on favourites
One favourite fails a 0-72 stat
The other may well be on the bounce
Both are bets have No safety nets
Both are Unstaked but are my two best bets


Today's Bet

No Account Bet





T o d a y s M e s s a g e


3 Highlighted Races


Kilbeggan 5.25

£4.00 Each Way SOLAR HEAT 5/1

£2.00 Win Bet TAJSEER 3/1

This looks a significant race
Massive problem here with the staking
I like them both as 3rd and 4th favourites
Both could be great each way bets
But I want a saver on the other one
I think TAJSEER is the more likely winner
But he is 3/1 and harder to stake each way
The staking is very messy
So I am not going to make this an account bet
This is my 3rd best option in my opinion


Today's Two Best Bets


Lingfield 5.20

CALIFORNIA LAD 100/30

Win Bet


Kilbeggan 6.30

BILLY´S HOPE 7/2

Win Bet


This is a little bit Spooky
2 Win Bets in 4 runner races
I am opposing long odds on favourites in both races

I am completely naked in both races
No Each Way Options
No safety nets
No Hiding Places
If I staked either of these as an account bet

It would feel like sending you a Naked photo of myself
Colour, Full Frontal and when striking a suggestive Pose

I would be just too exposed staking either bet
Can they beat the odds on favourites ?
I don't know but I think they are worth a try

Had there been another outsider in each race
Then Both of these would have been e/w account bets
But there is not 5 runners
And the frames of the race are unpleasant
I fancy both to win
But I am leaving them both off the account




Daily Negatives

No Negative Today

Results of Negatives
27 correct bets from 38




F r i d a y s R e v i e w

Quiet Friday with just 3 previews
No Staked Bets on the day
Started badly with Celtic Artisan Losing
The 2nd horse was My Painter each way 10/1
Nicked a bit of place money in 3rd
I thought he was going to win at one stage
But 3rd in the end was a relief as he just held on
The last preview was a 6/1 winner
Rose Eclair turned the message around
Not a bad day albeit all lower staked bets




P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s




S h e r g a r C u p


Generic Statistics

Like many I don't have a lot of time for this one off
meeting. I have 2 Generic statistics that have so far
stood the test of time at this artificial meeting. Good
luck if you bother here. I've done just one handicap.

The Shergar Cup Started back in 2000
There have been 90 races at this 1 day festival
There are two Generic Stats to consider
All horses that ran aged 7 or more are 1-79
All horses aged 4 or more absent 54 + days are 0-28

This suggests we should ignore the following

Ascot 1.15 - Out Do
Ascot 1.15 - Medicean Man
Ascot 1.15 - Stepper Point
Ascot 1.45 -Arch Villain
Ascot 1.45 - Teak
Ascot 1.45 - Noble Silk
Ascot 2.20 - Blue Surf
Ascot 2.55 - Highland Colori
Ascot 2.55 - Balty Boys
Ascot 2.55 - Bancnuanaheireann
Ascot 2.55 - Balmoral Castle

Not bothered about the above
Just doing the first Ascot race and that's all/




A s c o t 1.15

5/1 Out Do, 5/1 Union Rose, 6/1 In Salutem
6/1 Medicean Man, 7/1 Dutch Masterpiece, 7/1 Willytheconqueror
10/1 Burnt Sugar, 12/1 Line Of Reason, 12/1 Ninjago
12/1 Poyle Vinnie, 14/1 Quatrieme Ami, 16/1 Stepper Point.

Class 2 Handicap over 5f
39 of these races in August

God only knows why I am doing this race
I suppose my angles have pushed me into it

In the 39 similar races
Horses aged 3 have a 1-61 record
Those with 6 or more runs are 0-56
So WILLYTHECONQUEROR is rejected
QUATRIEME AMI is out as a 3yo with 1 run this year
Horses with 1-2 runs this season worry me
If you take 4 year olds with 16 or more career starts
None have won with just 1-2-3-4 runs that season
All 37 that tried were beaten
UNION ROSE fails this 0-37 statistic with 23 and 2 this year
BURNT SUGAR fails the same 0-37 record
STEPPER POINT isn't running well enough
I looked at every Class 2 Handicap run over 5f
That's any month of the year
There was a 2-85 record with these horses
They did both win in August
But both had 6 or more runs that season
MEDICEAN MAN does not have that
I felt he was underraced for a 10 year old
Drawn 1 another reason to avoid MEDICEAN MAN
POYLE VINNIE doesn't interest me
Not from a career high mark
His 5f wins have all been in much lower grades

LINE OF REASON has a tough task with topweight
Comes from a Group 2 race and not many did
I can find a winner ay York in August Like him
I came away thinking don't choose him
But also to make clear he was not ruled out statistically

DUTCH MASTERPIECE was 2nd in this last year
I thought there was a lot to like about him
But his profile does not seem very good
If I look at horses aged 6 or more
Who come from 5f handicaps
Who were beaten last time
Who ran in the previous 25 days
You find a 0-62 record with similar horses
It is the horses aged 6 or more from 6f races that win
Those like him from 5f races were 0-62
I find that quite surprising
I thought he'd be an automatic shortlist job
My angles are against him so I will look elsewhere
His profile is shared by Medicean Man and Stepper Point

Shortlist

NINJAGO - Only 1 of his 33 career starts was over 5f
That puts him in quite a risky place
Mind you his only every run over 5f
Was a Racing Post Rating of 108 on his seasonal debut
That was a huge run and good enough to win this
Starting to take him more seriously

IN SALUTEM has his best bet off 88
Today he has to try and win off 98
I don't see him as well handicapped
His 5f Numbers suggest he has a tough task
That said I ran his profile and it was solid
3 similar winners and my angles do like his profile
I came away with 3-9 profile the best in the race
I am not sold myself but my angles disagree
They would want him in the staking plan

OUT DO - No strong statistical objections
Not everything sits comfortably with him
Like coming from a Conditions race
But with a recent run he is entitled to respect


Selection

Messy Staking

Low Stakes

£2.50 Each Way NINJAGO 14/1

£3.50 IN SALUTEM 7/1

£1.50 OUT DO 6/1





N e w m a r k e t 2.05

5/2 Wuheida, 7/2 Spatial, 9/2 Forest Angel
9/2 Kitsey, 9/2 Poet´s Vanity, 10/1 Nathania.

The 2 market leaders are unraced
Powewful stables and impossible to split safely

The 3 interesting horses I will be watching
Are three horses I would want to avoid

KITSEY is unraced owned by Michael Pescod
He often gives his debutants a quiet run
No idea if he will today but I'm avoiding her
NATHANIA is unraced and not for me
Weakest stable and sire no debutant 7f winners
FOREST ANGEL is sired by Dark Angel
His unraced 2 year olds over 7f or more are 2-66
Those racing on Turf are just 1-76
Fillies in that record like her were 0-33
I think she should be an unlikely winner

That leaves 3 horses
POET´S VANITY would not be first choice
Trainers never had a debutant 7f winner before
I think one of two will win

Shortlist

SPATIAL
WUHEIDA

Now this has to be a guess from here
So I will squeeze a win bet and saver

£7 Win Bet WUHEIDA 9/4

£3 Saver Bet SPATIAL 11/4






H a y d o c k 3.10

5/1 Golden Stunner, 11/2 Red Box, 13/2 Manaboo
8/1 Aljazzi, 8/1 Mix And Mingle, 8/1 Wilamina, 10/1 Laugh Aloud
10/1 Light And Shade, 12/1 Pirouette, 12/1 Sharaakah, 14/1 Muffri´ha
20/1 Peru, 33/1 Lil Sophella, 33/1 Lucy The Painter
50/1 Gratzie.

This is a Listed race over 8f for fillies
There are 5 renewals of this race
There are 25 similar races elsewhere

4 Past winners of this had 12 5 5 7 13 runs
They had 4 4 5 4 5 runs that season

It is the horses with 3 runs that worry me most
This is a tough track to have just 3 runs
Only 2 horses have won similar races with 3 runs
Both of these winners dropped in distance
ALJAZZI only has 3 runs
With a 97 day break I find him unacceptable
WILAMINA only has 3 career starts
Horses like her from 8f or shorter with under 4 runs
Have a 0-24 record in similar races
MANABOO fails exactly the same 0-24 statistic
She has only ran three times before
That would worry me in a race like this
Her sires runners over 8f + in this class are 0-16
Whilst we are on the subject of breeding Stats
I looked at sires with winners over 8f or more
In Listed Class or higher like this race
GRATZIE fails my breeding stats
GOLDEN STUNNER also fails my breeding stats
She has landed a hat trick in Class 5 4 and 2
This is another step ip in class for her
SHARAAKAH also fails my breeding stats
His sire has not had a winner over 8f or more in Class 2 +
I also hate the fact SHARAAKAH comes from 7f
No past winner of this race did that
No other runner in this race has that to overcome
The few winners that did manage it came from Listed/Group class
None like SHARAAKAH came from 7f handicaps
MUFFRI´HA only has 1 run this season
That is not acceptable with every other runner having more
LIL SOPHELLA is much older than ideal
PERU and PIROUETTE look wrong
Neither appears to have the class or the numbers
I feel the same about LUCY THE PAINTER
19 runs and only rated 88 against 100 + rated horses
LAUGH ALOUD comes from a Maiden
None of the 25 winners managed that
Stall 15 would also worry me for her
Very few horses win over 8f here drawn that high

Shortlist

Shortlisting 3 horses from the Valiant Stakes
They were 1st 4th and 5th in that race last time

RED BOX Won the Valiant Stakes last time
Stall 14 is higher than I would like
But she has decent numbers

MIX AND MINGLE has a solid profile
May have needed her last run absent 82 days
That may be why she was just 5th in the Valiant Stakes

LIGHT AND SHADE was 4th in the Valiant Stakes
She was drawn 1 that day and should run well

Selection

£3.50 Each Way MIX AND MINGLE 9/1

£2 Win Bet RED BOX 9/2

£1 Win Bet LIGHT AND SHADE 16/1





N e w m a r k e t 3.15

5/2 Easy Victory, 7/2 Grecian Light
7/2 Nations Alexander, 5/1 On Her Toes, 10/1 Grizzel
14/1 Belle Meade, 16/1 Urban Fox
20/1 San Sebastiana, 33/1 Tiburtina.

The Sweet Solera is a Group race for 2yo's over 7f
Think we should only stay here a few minutes

The last 18 winners had 1-2-3 career starts
That suggests anything with 4 + runs is unsafe

If we look at Racing Post Ratings
Past winners best Racing Post Rating before winning
107 92 86 98 88 86 102 90 92 78 99 100
11 of the last 12 winners had ratings of at least 86
The only one that didn't won in a tiny field
That's my problem with GRECIAN LIGHT
And my problem with EASY VICTORY as well
So ideally we want a horse with 1-2-3 runs
Who has achieved a Racing Post Rating of 86 or more
Only 2 horses have this profile
One of them (BELLE MEADE) fails my breeding stats
This leaves just 1 horse

URBAN FOX 16/1

I am going with him and looking for support elsewhere
URBAN FOX comes from the Star Stakes a good trial
ON HER TOES won the Star Stakes
GRIZZEL was 3rd in that race
So I will combine these 3 horses for the selection

Low Stakes

£2.50 Each Way URBAN FOX 16/1 +

£4.00 Win Bet ON HER TOES 11/2

£1.00 Win Bet GRIZZEL 12/1




H a y d o c k 4.15

9/4 Gershwin, 11/4 Ode To Evening, 7/2 Abdon
10/1 Gurkha Friend, 10/1 Lord Ben Stack, 14/1 Awake My Soul
14/1 Demonstration, 14/1 Snoano.

This is a 10f Handicap

If I follow my angles
Which are pretty mundane in this race
Then they lead me to GERSHWIN

Horses aged 3
Under 9 career starts
Absent over a Month are 0-14
ABDON with 3 runs fails that
All 3yo winners of these races had under 10 runs
Those like ODE TO EVENING with more are 0-22
4 year olds from 8f or shorter
Running in the last 6 weeks are 0-23
GURKHA FRIEND fails this
LORD BEN STACK fails this
AWAKE MY SOUL is underraced
DEMONSTRATION doesn't offer much

SNOANO has a chance and could be a saver
Overall angles pretty average unimpressive angles
But what there are do point to GERSHWIN winning
No a great price. Not enough to interest me

Selection

GERSHWIN 11/8

Win Bet





L i n g f i e l d 5.20

2/5 Twobeelucky, 9/4 California Lad
33/1 Iconic Sky, 33/1 Marcmywords.

This is a 10f Maiden

TWOBEELUCKY is a long odds on 4/11 favourite
CALIFORNIA LAD is 100/30 second favourite

The other pair are rank outsiders
My thought process here went like this
Annoyed just 4 runners obviously

I opposed TWOBEELUCKY last week

Discoverd he looked temperamental last year
Was uncooperative at the stalls before
Had a high head carriage as well

I wondered if I should oppose him
And go with CALIFORNIA LAD at 100/30
Then I looked at different sets of numbers

TWOBEELUCKY is 10lbs clear on Racing Post Ratings
He is 13lbs clear on Official Ratings
I watched his last run on video
And I was quite impressed as she looked decent

So at that stage I gave up
Decided Not to preview the race
Decided Not to commit to CALIFORNIA LAD
Without any safety net

Then hours later it dawned on me
TWOBEELUCKY may well bounce
In other words run below form
On a 2nd quick run back from a long absence
He has had just 1 run this year
That was only 7 days ago
And it was quite a hard race as well

I tried to build a case statistically that he'd bounce
This is what I came up with

June July August September
Maiden Races over every and any distance
Horses aged 3
1 run this season
Running in the last 9 days
4 or more career starts
I found a 0-32 record with these types
TWOBEELUCKY fails this 0-32 record

10 of the 32 losers started under 4/1
They were 11/4 100/30 3/1 3/1 7/2 3/1 11/4 7/4 6/4 7/4
This Might just be evidence of the Bounce

When I bore you that I need to be Fresh and Imaginative
This is a perfect example
I don't just type up a lot of stats a machine has churned out
I have to think about what issues matter
And Create Statistics out of thin air
This Bounce theory came into my mind very late
I found a statistic to back up the theory
Whether that works or not we shall soon see

So now I have changed my mind
Decided to risk the horse that is clear 2nd bet
As the favourite could be on the bounce

Selection

CALIFORNIA LAD 7/2

Win Bet





K i l b e g g a n 5.25

5/2 William Du Berlais, 11/4 Little Rocky
11/4 Tajseer, 9/2 Solar Heat, 16/1 Timanora
20/1 Treacys Waterford, 33/1 Black Scorpion
33/1 Blue Horizon Bay, 50/1 Grand Tour.

This is a 2m Maiden Hurdle

There look to be 4 main runners in this race
WILLIAM DU BERLAIS IS 5
He has 2 career starts both over hurdles
There have been 5yo winners with under 3 runs
None though who had prior hurdles form
I don't see him as a negative
But he is by far the least experienced of the main runners
He is not matchable to a winner
And he is only 3rd best on the numbers

LITTLE ROCKY is 8 and absent 322 days
I looked at what type of horses won with long absences
If you look at horses with 15 or more career starts
None were absent more than 119 days (0-24)
LITTLE ROCKY is very old and exposed for that kind of break
Statistically I should avoid him

SOLAR HEAT is a 7yo mare with 12 hurdle runs
I can't match her exactly to a winner
But I would not rule her out
She has some respectable and consistent numbers

TAJSEER is interesting as well
Stamina has been his Achilees Heel
His sire's National Hunt runners are 0-31 so far
This is not a Natural national hunt pedigree
But he was 2nd last time over 2m 4f
I very much doubt he stayed that day
He has finished 2nd now 3 times in a row
He stays well enough over 2m to nick a race
This is a sharp track small in circumference
One of the most likely tracks he will stay
And the ground must help him stamina wise
I ran his profile aged 5 down from 2m 4f
There was an encouraging 2-11 record
He has twice as many hurdle runs as William Du Berlais
He has recent runs unlike Little Rocky

I like SOLAR HEAT each way 4/1
She is not the biggest of horses though
I feel TAJSEER has to be a saver

Selection

£4.00 Each Way SOLAR HEAT 5/1

£2.00 Win Bet TAJSEER 3/1



N e w m a r k e t 5.30

13/8 St Michel, 9/2 Scarpeta, 5/1 Stetchworth Park
9/1 Safira Menina, 9/1 See And Be Seen
10/1 Planetoid, 25/1 Amber Flush.

This 2m handicap should go to a 3yo

I ran ST MICHEL's profile
3yo Male from 1m 6f handicap
Having 8-9-10 career starts
Beaten under 10 lengths last time
I found a 5-7 record with similar types
Those beaten last time were 3-4
ST MICHEL is a positive

SCARPETA is also 3 but has 12 runs
Just a little bit more exposed than ideal
My statistics are a bit unclear about him
So are my breeding stats as well
His sire hasn't had a winner over this far in this class before

STETCHWORTH PARK is the other 3yo
He has a good profile as well

I prefer a 3yo
I am shortlisting the two with the best profiles
ST MICHEL
STETCHWORTH PARK
They were 2nd and 3rd in the same race last time
ST MICHEL looks the more likely winner
I would have to make sure I can't lose if either win
Either could be a win bet but the other must be a saver

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet STETCHWORTH PARK 4/1

£4.00 Win Bet ST MICHEL 11/8





L i n g f i e l d 5.50

13/8 Torquay, 3/1 Sautter, 9/2 Pack It In.

This is a 3yo Handicap over 11f and 106 yards
There are 105 similar races at this time of year

Small field with 3 horses rated 72 71 70
Looks dangerous but some interesting angles

TORQUAY is a filly who comes from 1m 6f
There were 5 winners that dropped down from 14f races
None though were fillies like her (0-4)
None though had under 6 runs like her (0-6)
TORQUAY is not like a winner
But it is a small sample of horses to base that on
There is no good reason to select her

SAUTTER comes from a 10f maiden with 3 runs
I ran his exact profile and it was acceptable
My Breeding Statistics open up a doubt though
Look at horses sired by Kyllachy who race over 11f +
There was a 21-326 record
However look at those with under 5 career runs
There was a 0-36 record with the lighter raced ones
That just raises a bit more doubt about him

PACK IT IN is hard to read
He is down in Class and profile not too bad
I hate his trainer but there are just 2 opponents
I would have saved on him

KNIGHT COMMANDER had the best profile
He was one of my best bets today
But he is a Non runner now

PACK IT IN the original Saver
Now becomes the selection


Selection

PACK IT IN 4/1

Win Bet






K i l b e g g a n 6.30

4/7 Airlie Beach, 11/4 Billy´s Hope
8/1 Aunt Eileen, 12/1 Jaime Sommers.

AIRLIE BEACH has the best numbers
She has only had 2 hurdle runs

BILLY´S HOPE comes out as second best numerically
But she has had 6 hurdle runs

In August there are 38 Mares Novice Hurdles
Thats 38 of these races at every distance

If you look at horses with under 3 career starts
Thats fewer than 3 lifetimes runs under any code
You find a 0-72 record
AIRLIE BEACH fails that 0-72 statistic
AUNT EILEENalso fails that 0-72 statistic
They did both win last time on their 2nd runs
But that was in a maiden hurdle
This is a Novice Hurdle with different angles
Whilst both fail this 0-72 statistic

I looked at these races July August September
Mares Novice Hurdles over any distance
Horses with under 3 career starts were 2-175
Those with just 1 or 2 hurdle races were 0-60

Not easy to rule AIRLIE BEACH out
Not from WP Mullins and winning last time
But these angles suggest I should do
There were plenty unfancied in that 0-60 record
But it included losers at the following prices
6/1 3/1 9/2 6/4 2/1 5/1 13/2 11/8 9/4 7/2 11/2

AIRLIE BEACH is opposed
AUNT EILEEN is also opposed

JAIME SOMMERS is not easy to fancy
But could be a cheap saver in a small field
Could be dangerous to leave him out

I'd give BILLY´S HOPE a good chance
If you look at 5 year olds in these races
Who have 5-6-7 hurdle starts
There is a very smart 5-10 record
Thats not as good as it sounds
As the 5 winners all won last time mout
BILLY´S HOPE did not manage that
But the 5 that did not finished 2 3 5 3 2
That I find mildly encouraging
And I'd rather take that than the other profiles

Selection

BILLY´S HOPE 7/2

Win Bet




L i n g f i e l d 6.50

1/2 Dourado, 9/4 Ettihadi
16/1 Sassoferrato, 25/1 Rock On Dandy
33/1 Gog Elles, 33/1 Too Many Shots
100/1 Maysonri.

This is a 2yo maiden over 7f

DOURADO 4/5 sets a decent enough standard
ETTIHADI 9/4 is unraced

Every other horse is a big price
Either all unraced or ran poorly on debuts

I have looked at DOURADO closely before
The 7f distance worries me
I do Not think he will stay this far
In any normal 7f maiden
I would be opposing him with confidence
I think he is going to run out of petrol
The problem here is the opposition
The only sensible alternative is unraced

If we take the unraced horses ETTIHADI
He is sired by Rip Van Winkle
Look at this sires unraced 2 year olds
Several have won at 7f
Those that ran over 8f or more are 0-33
This is between both distances
The longest unraced winner he has had is 7f 50 yards
This is 7f and 140 yards
So technically ETTIHADI has 90 more yards
He would become the sires longest debut winner
So you can see his breedng stats are very borderline

There is no chance I can bet DOURADO
Not at odds on calling him a non stayer
But you can see how he may win by default
I feel I have to go with ETTIHADI
You could consider one or more of the outsiders
As there is a chance the big 2 could fail for stamina
But how do you choose one with any confidence
I am staying with ETTIHADI here

Selection

ETTIHADI 9/4

Win Bet


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