0 Bet today
0 Negative
4 Previews

Only 4 previews and these are all tonight
It has to be a quiet day today
Some of today's tracks do not motivate me
The likes of Brighton Musselburgh and Wolves
I do like some races tonight especially in Ireland
I feel very Stale today working far too slowly
I need a one day Break of routine
So rather than a normal message tomorrow
I am going to do something unusual instead


Today's Bet

No Bet Today




Tuesdays Message

One off Research Message

Today is the 9th message in 10 days
I feel a bit stale and need to skip a day
Rather than not do any message
I am instead doing a research message

I may or may not include any races tomorrow
There may or may not be any bets tomorrow
Just completely changing my routine for 1 day
Just allows me to Freshen up
And Break my routine of doing Previews

There will be something I have never done before
New analysis in Both the Epsom Derby and Oaks
It will offer a complete new perspective on the race
There will be some other research work done
There still could be a bet tomorrow
I am just going to roam freely
Without putting myself under any pressure
This will be almost like a day off
Anything could be included in tomorrows message
But the main focus will not be on tomorrows racing



T o d a y s M e s s a g e

Stake as last weekends Sandwiches today

I think my best bet is this

Roscommon 6.40

Queen Alphabet 7/4

My statistics sneer at this bet
They correctly point out
That no horse like her has ever won a similar race
They would say I was making a mistake
But I disagree with that
I can turn a bad profile iuto a neutral one
My Breeding stats support my arguments too
And I think she will win
But at the price not prepared to go with a bet

There is a big price alternative best bet
Far riskier but I do quite like the race
My Race Statistics and Breeding Statistics
At least do agree with each other here
They both report Mild encouragement for this bet
But both advise it is not account strength

Roscommon 5.40

Highland Fling 10/1

Each Way


My 5 year olds in certain handicap chases statistic
That now stands 0-143
Throw up a 3/1 chance in the 7pm at Towcester
I am obviously going to oppose this horse
But the selection was a toss up
And with 6 runners it's not account bet strength



I am leaving the account alone today



Daily Negatives

No Negative Today

Results of Negatives
23 correct bets from 31




S u n d a y s R e v i e w

It was a pretty bland 4 previews message
yesterday without committing to any bets.
We ended up with 2 short priced winners
from the four previews. All low key stuff
and a safe but also quiet end to the week.






P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s



R o s c o m m o n 5.40

11/10 Alishan, 7/2 Admodum, 6/1 Bob Moore
8/1 Easy Pass, 10/1 Highland Fling, 50/1 Alcander
66/1 Snow Dragon, 100/1 Maritime Law.

This is a 10f maiden over 10f

ALISHAN is an unraced Aga Khan horse
Clearly on paper the likely winner

The issue is will he stay first time out on the ground ?
I looked at his sire Rock of Gibraltar
He has an unraced winner on Good to Soft over 10f
Those that raced first out on soft or heavy ground
Have yet to win beyond a Mile though
I think there is a doubt about him getting home

If you look at the sire Rock of Gibraltar
His runners over 10f or more
On Soft or heavy ground
Under 2 career starts
The record of these horses are 0-24
ALISHAN may well bust this breeding stat
But at Odds on I can't trust him to do that

ADMODUM is also not certain to stay
Hard to judge but I see breeding warning signs
His sole run 14 days ago was average really
A Racing Post Rating of 64 is nothing special

BOB MOORE makes no sensible appeal

EASY PASS is unraced sired by Elusive Pimpernel
This sire has never had any winner over this far

Whilst I normally avoid 4 year olds in these races
HIGHLAND FLING can not be ruled out
I don't mind his profile at all
I see him as one of the few that will stay
He has to give weight for age away
And his trainer does worry me
He did have a Royal Ascot winner years ago
But not sure how motivated he is these days
But I thought at the price
He was an interesting bet

Selection

HIGHLAND FLING 10/1

Each Way




R o s c o m m o n 6.40

9/4 Grey Sky Blue, 5/2 Queen Alphabet
3/1 So Focussed, 6/1 Nazmia, 8/1 Not A Whisper
10/1 Glacial Drift, 33/1 Timanora.

Maiden for fillies aged 4 or more
Run over an extended 11f
Unusual race. Very few like it

You need a horse that can stay 11f + on Soft
And ideally one that can do it when lightly raced

I Don't see SO FOCUSSED as a certain stayer
Horses sired by Intense Focus
10f or more
Running on Good to Soft or worse
There is a 3-61 record
Those with under 6 career stats were 0-20
This is 12f and not 10f and Soft to Heavy
Weak profile and hammered last time

I question GLACIAL DRIFT's stamina
His sires runners over 11f or more
Have a 1-66 record on Good to soft or worse

NOT A WHISPER is not a certain Stayer
There has been money for her at big prices
Around 10/1 would be a cheap saver
No idea how to treat her from a Listed Bumper
£1 stake would remove the stress of her winning

TIMANORA is outclassed
I think there are 3 horses to consider
The only 3 horses very likely to stay this far

NAZMIA
QUEEN ALPHABET
GREY SKY BLUE

Concerns me that NAZMIA is a 5yo mare
who is absent a massive 523 days so I feel
we should concentrate on just two horses.

QUEEN ALPHABET
GREY SKY BLUE

They were 2nd and 3rd in the same race last time
QUEEN ALPHABET was 2nd at 9/2
GREY SKY BLUE was 3rd at 66/1
Some will expect the form to be reversed
I don't see it like that
I think QUEEN ALPHABET will confirm the form

My race stats are not convinced
They tell me a 7yo in any fillies maiden
With National Hunt form is unsafe
Only 2 have ever tried though
They were 2nd at 11/4 and 5th at 11/2
Technically she is not like any winner
But I like her and think she should win this

Selection

QUEEN ALPHABET 15/8

Win Bet






T o w c e s t e r 7.00

2/1 Gamain, 11/4 Brook, 4/1 Orby´s Man
6/1 Reblis, 12/1 Jolly Boys Outing
20/1 Knockalongi.

This is a 3m Handicap Chase
There are 135 similar races in May

Shame there are just 7 runners
I uncovered a statistic about 5 year olds recently

Handicap Chases in May
2m 3f or further
Any Class of race
Male horses aged 5
There is now a 0-143 record with 5 year olds
BROOK fails this angle as a 5yo
I have to oppose him based on that
I have to follow this angle whilst it still works

KNOCKALONGI looks regressive
I could argue he is best fresh and could bounce back
But as his regression happened
After a big downgrade in stable 6 months ago
I'm not prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt

JOLLY BOYS OUTING - I don't want a 13yo
Not one with an absence and out of form

REBLIS is an exposed 11yo absent 56 days
No strong objections to his profile
He has been switching hurdles and fences
I can't find a winner like him from a hurdle race
But I can overlook that and see him as a positive
One doubt is a winless record at this time of year
The suspicion is he has gone off the boil

ORBY´S MAN has a similar profile to Gamain
He is 7 with a short absence and 5 Chase starts
Like Gamain there were 6 winners like him
They all ran within 10 lengths of the winner last time
Those that did not were 0-27
ORBY´S MAN was beaten 19 lengths last time
I can forgive him that
He had races just once in the previous 8 months
He was entitled to need the run last time

GAMAIN seems a similar standard over hurdles/fences
I looked at 7 year olds with similar absences
Those aged 7 absent 4-10 weeks
There were 6 winners
They had 5 3 4 6 4 6 Chase runs
GAMAIN is close enough with 7 Chase runs
He does have more weight than the 6 similar winners

This was a Toss up

The Main Bet is down to 2 horses
GAMAIN or ORBY´S MAN
Similar profiles
GAMAIN has the safer profile
Has the better numbers
Is the better price
And has more recent runs
ORBY´S MAN though is probably the better horse
I could stake then all and three tier it
But I feel GAMAIN has enough positives at 4/1

Selection

GAMAIN 7/2





R o s c o m m o n 8.40

5/2 Ice Cool, 11/4 Go Darsi Go, 3/1 Inch Rise
11/2 Salsa Sensation, 12/1 Captain Bizarro
14/1 Cappacurry Zak, 16/1 Annamatopoeia
33/1 Kostar, 33/1 Teds Island
66/1 Definite Pursuit.

This is a 3m Beginners Chase

I am opposing ICE COOL
I opposed him on his last 2 starts
We got him beaten last time out
But he won over 3 miles before that
I always oppose his sire over a distance
The 3m race he won was very soft
It came in a very low grade handicap
It was very slowly run and flattered him
Despite a win over 3m I don't presume he stays
But ICE COOL is from a Flat Bred sire
His sire was a sprinter and this is a 3m Chase
His sires Chasers have a 0-13 record so far
The only sire in the race with no Chase winners
ICE COOL is therefore opposed

Finding an alternative is very messy
With so many Chase debutants
CAPPACURRY ZAK may not stay this far
SALSA SENSATION looks short of recent runs
His recent Chase form isn't encouraging
ANNAMATOPOEIA doesn't set a high standard
I dont want TEDS ISLAND as a debutant
KOSTAR 's numbers are too low

CAPTAIN BIZARRO has a chance
GO DARSI GO Good chance but a bit short
INCH RISE has a bit more experience

Novice and Beginners Chases
Run over 2m 7f and more in May
Horses aged 6 or more
Running within 37 days
Coming from hurdles
Coming from short of 3 miles
No Chase runs
Under 11 lifetime starts
There is a 0-40 record with this profile
10 of these started under 7/1
It is a bit of a manufactured profile
But GO DARSI GO fails this profile
At a short price I am leaving him alone

Selection

INCH RISE 4/1

Each Way






A s c o t G o l d C u p

Order of St George (5/2) Bondi Beach (8) Max Dynamite (8)
Flying Officer (12) Simple Verse (14) Mizzou (16)
Alex My Boy (20) Big Orange (20) Clever Cookie (20)
Silver Concorde (20) Litigant (25) Manatee (25)
Mille Et Mille (25) Moonrise Landing (25) Quest For More (25)
Pallasator (33) Scotland (33) Wicklow Brave (33)
Father Christmas (40) Fly With Me (40) Fun Mac (40)
Oriental Fox (40) Simenon (50) Seismos (66)

Today I am referring to the Age Statistics
I want to Oppose horses aged 8 or more
YEATS won this as an 8yo in 2009
He was special and it was his 4th win in the race
The last winners that old was 115 years beforehand
That was way back in 1900

The Horses aged 8 this year include these
SIMENON - SEISMOSS - LITIGANT
CLEVER COOKIE -ORIENTAL FOX

Current Breeding Negatives

Order of St George

Current Age Negatives

Oriental Fox - Simenon - Seismos
Clever Cookie - Litigant

****************************************************
****************************************************