0 Bets today
0 Negative
3 Previews

I said at the start of the week I might have to
throw in a shorter message one day this week
so today is it. Traditionally it has always been
a very light message anyway usually because
of how the message cycle works. Today is the
now the 12th message without a break so the
energy levels are down. So a tactical decision
to lower the workload today and take off any
pressure will help with the weekend messages.


Today's Bet

No Bet Today


T o d a y s M e s s a g e


Worked at a Snails Pace Today
Tells me I am not fit for purpose today
Not off a yard
Know it is time to back off
A Tactical retreat with Saturday on the horizon



Today's Best Bet


Kilbeggan 5.50

UNDEFINED BEAUTY 7/2 - 4/1

Each Way







Daily Negatives

No Negative Today
Results of Negatives
27 correct bets from 37






T h u r s d a y s R e v i e w


2 Bets and 2 lovely Winners yesterday.
Both horses scraped home but did win.
I mentioned yesterday about the issue
of each way bets at 7/2 and how this is
controversial. Sometimes my staking's
cowardly but it is so for sound reasons.

If we had gone only win only yesterday
we would be staring down the barrel of
a disastrous day and sowing the seeds
of a losing run. Instead we are now on
the start of a good run with confidence.

A Brilliant ride on TESSERACT made
the difference and started the day well.
It was a fitness edge SEAMSTER had
that shone through when staying on so
well to get up. The last 2 previews did
not work including a winning negative
which I believe was down to a lack of
credible opposition. One danger didn't
stay as we predicted and Roseisarose
was never really a safe enough option
and her trainer said the ground was a
concern. Disappointing end to a good
message but having 2 bets 2 winners
is a very nice albeit very rare feeling.





P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s


N e w b u r y 4.15

4/1 Sweet Selection, 11/2 Air Squadron
6/1 Sea Of Heaven, 8/1 Medburn Cutler
8/1 Vive Ma Fille, 9/1 Diamond Joel, 10/1 Montaly
10/1 Percy Veer, 12/1 Giant Redwood
14/1 Royal Irish Hussar, 16/1 Leah Freya
20/1 See And Be Seen.

This a Class 2 Handicap over 2m 2f
Classy handicap over a serious distance

SWEET SELECTION is a doubtful stayer
I have to take that view sired by Stimulation
She has won 3 of her last 4 races over 2 miles
Two of these were very slowly run races though
And in a muck weaker grade than this one.
SWEET SELECTION has never ran in this Class

There are 3 horses with 1 run this season
I am opposing all 3 of these

SEA OF HEAVEN is 4 and has 1 run this season
Horses aged 4 with 1 run that season are 2-70
Those that were beaten in that race were 0-55
SEA OF HEAVEN fails that statistic
DIAMOND JOEL also fails that statistic
If you look at horses of all ages with 1 run that season
When beaten 8 or more lengths in that run
They have a collective 0-127 record
SEA OF HEAVEN has this problem as well
LEAH FREYA also has just 1 run this season
She is a mare and throw in 86 days absence
She just looks too short of recent runs

ROYAL IRISH HUSSAR has not raced in 323 days
This could well be a prep run for later targets

MEDBURN CUTLER won last time
That was in a Class 5 Grade though
This is 3 Grades higher than that
He has won 0-75 0-65 0-65 0-60 0-54 races
This is a 0-95 and he has a career high mark
I think he will get outclassed in this race
Stall 1 could be a problem as well
Look at races here over 1m 4f and longer
When having 7 or more runners in them
Since 2011 horses drawn 1 were 0-73 in them
MEDBURN CUTLER has the draw and is rejected

AIR SQUADRON is unsafe on breeding stats
His sire has yet to get a winner beyond 2m
I'd want more than that to discount him though
I ran his profile looking at similar horses aged 6 or more
Running within a month
There was a 1-33 record
I'd have liked another run this year

GIANT REDWOOD is 4 and ran 7 days ago
He is quite inexperienced with 7 runs
I looked at all similar races at any time of year
Horses aged 4
Under 12 career starts
Those that raced in the last 2 weeks were 0-28
GIANT REDWOOD does not have a great profile
But he is fit and he does pass my breeding stats
He is up from a Class 4 race and needs a career best

MONTALY has raced twice this year
Tends to be lightly raced and has had problems
I wouldn't rule him out
But his profile is not safe down in distance
And he may prefer faster ground


Shortlist

VIVE MA FILLE is a threat if she stays

PERCY VEER is an exposed 4 year old
He is fit and has respectable numbers
His best win though was in a Class 4 off 76
This is a Class 2 and a0-95
He has placed though in similar class races
I'd be happy he could win a race off 88
His last 8 Racing Post Ratings suggest this
I would see PERCY VEER as a positive

SEE AND BE SEEN can't be ruled out
He may be one of the outsiders in this race
but he comes out best on Breeding Stats
He is proven in the class and off higher marks too
The 7lbs claimer has a bit of experience
I see excuses for some of his recent runs
Needed the run at Ascot first time out this year
He does not like Goodwood on his 2nd run
Ran a bit better than it looked last time
May not have enough but I'd want something on him
Especially with the best breeding profile


Selection

Split Stake

£4 Win Bet PERCY VEER 10/1

£2 Each Way SEE AND BE SEEN 20/1 +

£2 Win Bet VIVE MA FILLE 7/1





K i l b e g g a n 5.50

4/6 Airlie Beach, 3/1 Day Day, 9/2 Undefined Beauty
14/1 Treacys Waterford, 16/1 Lady Quill, 20/1 Abbey Magic
20/1 Muchadoboutnothing, 25/1 Tara Challenge
33/1 Keady Lady, 33/1 Princess Massini
33/1 Shramore Lady, 50/1 Lady Grandera
66/1 Willwehaveone.

2m 3f Mares Maiden Hurdle
Wasn't going to do this race
But a friend rung me up asking me about the race
He wanted to bet DAY DAY each way
Ran a few profiles whilst I was on the phone
Agree the favourite might be vulnerable
Similar horses to AIRLIE BEACH had a 1-34 profile
That winner was a 5yo and she is a 6yo
Told him DAY DAY had a chance
But I was not impressed with her numbers
11 hurdle runs and best Racing Post Rating of 104
I told him I preferred UNDEFINED BEAUTY
She had a 2-34 profile
I selected her at Cork in the message last week
She finished 4th but almost fell at the third last
Would have been much closer but for that
I like 7yo mares in these races
I told him I would switch from Day Day
And bet the 7 year old each way

Selection

UNDEFINED BEAUTY 4/1

Each Way






P o n t e f r a c t 6.30

4/1 Canford Bay, 4/1 Faulkwood, 8/1 Bengal Lancer
8/1 Snuggy, 10/1 Belle Meade, 14/1 Grinty, 14/1 Rag Tatter
16/1 Right Action, 20/1 Oceanic, 20/1 Sheriff Garrett
20/1 Silk Mill Blue, 33/1 Copa Beech, 33/1 Magic Journey
33/1 Vatican Hill.


6f Maiden race
14 runners
8 horses had to like at 25/1 or more

I am oppossing FAULKWOOD
Unraced horses sired by Hellvelyn
Have a 0-38 record over 6f or more

If you look at unraced horses here since 2006
Those drawn 10 or higher were just 1-53
RAG TATTER is out unraced drawn 15 (Net 13)
BELLE MEADE is out unraced drawn 12 (Net 10)
Her sires unraced horses at 6f or more are 1-42


Shortlist

SNUGGY - Not out of this with 2 runs
Does need improvement though

CANFORD BAY unraced drawn 12 (Net 10)
Like his pedigree. I would give him a pass

BENGAL LANCER has 2 runs. I like that
Good chance he didn't stay last time on soft
I would upgrade that performance

Selection

£4 Each Way BENGAL LANCER 6/1

£2 Win Bet CANFORD BAY 100/30


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