0 Bet today
0 Negative
5 Previews


No real surprise this is a scrappy set of cards
for a Tuesday. Not many races looked suitable
to preview and I have just 5 races. Its probably
the time to break quite soon as this is the 13th
message in the past 14 days. There are signs
of getting a bit stale and combine it with lower
grade scrappy cards and I am finding nothing.

Rather than break for a day I may well just do
a single race message tomorrow and combine
it with some Ante Post statistics. I haven't had
a pop at the Cambridgeshire for several years
and I may just do Saturdays race for a change.

Much as it could change one preview one bet
could be the plan for tomorrow to try and find
a bet and get away from a period of drought.



Today's Bet

No Staked Bet Today





T o d a y s M e s s a g e


I would nominate 2 races of interest today
Beverley 3.10
Ballinrobe 3.50



Beverley 3.10

£4.50 Each Way LINE OF REASON 9/1

£1.00 Win Saver ORNATE 9/1

This does need a bit of leap of faith
LINE OF REASON did finish last recently
But conditions should be more suitable today
I see him as an interesting bet
Without being one I can be fully confident about



Ballinrobe 3.50

WILMS WARRIOR 7/2

Each Way

I like the Ballinrobe race
But I had 2 positives here
If I went with a saver on Echo Lady
I would lose the each way option
So the prices have squeezed staking options
I feel the race is ripe for an each way bet
But the prices just make this harder to like




Daily Negatives
No Negative Today
Results of Negatives
27 correct bets from 38




M o n d a y's S u m m a r y

Looks like I was a little over confident yesterday as
we came off 2nd best only returning a couple of place
bets from the previews. It was right to avoid staking
Celtic Power. Not only did he fail to stay he was just
given too much to do and I question whether he was
very busy in that race anyway. The message started
badly with nothing right from the early previews and
it didn't get a lot better. We came a poor 2nd overall.




P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s


B e v e r l e y 2.10

15/8 Areen Heart, 2/1 Makkaar
100/30 Warm Love, 33/1 Final Chapter.

2yo Maiden over an extended 7f
Only 4 runners so no each way options

MAKKAAR has to be the horse to avoid
In terms of late season unraced 2yo's
Beverley is the worst track in the country
Beverley
September and October
Unraced 2 year olds
Any Distance
In these 2 months they are 1-227
Male horses doing this were 0-148
All horses doing this over 6f and more were 0-135
MAKKAAR is the next to try and is rejected
This looks a direct choice
The odds on AREEN HEART or WARM LOVE
AREEN HEART has the best numbers
And cost 3 times as much
But he was wearing headgear on his debut
He has been described as a keen sort
And WARM LOVE does seem the better value
She may not have stayed a mile on soft on her debut

Selection

£5 Win AREEN HEART 4/5 Win Bet

£5 Win Match Bet on WARM LOVE to beat MAKKAAR 4/5




B a l l i n r o b e 2.15

13/8 Lord Justice, 5/2 Zig Zag, 11/2 Ravens Hill
8/1 Masonbrook Lady, 10/1 Champagne Pat, 10/1 Northern Sky
16/1 Scealtana, 20/1 Alcander, 33/1 Andratx, 33/1 Dawn And Dusk
33/1 Mischief Maisy, 33/1 Ten Star Lion, 50/1 Mixed Views
50/1 Moorland, 66/1 Danehill Moore.

3yo maiden hurdle
]
I have always liked these races
But have not always had the angles to open them up
There are a lot of issues I can not sort here
The Sire Zoffany has never bred a hurdle winner before
He is responsible for LORD JUSTICE and ZIG ZAG
Doesn't seem a natural soft ground hurdles sire
But you could rule neither out with experience
I am against DAWN AND DUSK as an unraced filly
MASONBROOK LADYis another filly
Sired bu Canford Cliffs and a hurdling debutant not for me
CHAMPAGNE PAT has raced just once before
If I look at horses like him from hurdles
None managed to win with under 3 career starts

More interesting Profiles

Hurdling debutants
7-8-9-10 career starts
Starting under 33/1
Absent longer than 3 weeks
There was a 3-11 record with these horses
NORTHERN SKY has this profile

Horses coming from a hurdle race
11-15 races on the Flat
Similar horses had a 4-17 record
The 4 winners had recent runs within 18 days
ZIG ZAG doesn't but is a fair match to this profile
RAVENS HILL is also a fair match

Shortlist

£4 Each Way NORTHERN SKY 6/1

£2 Win Bet RAVENS HILL 9/1 +






B e v e r l e y 2.40

6/4 Jeany, 15/8 Harbour Lightning, 9/2 Reedanjas
8/1 Dandy Bird, 14/1 Western Presence, 25/1 Flashing Light
50/1 Miss Pepper, 66/1 A Bit Of Ginger, 66/1 Oh So Dandy.

5f Maiden for 2 year olds

More unraced 2 year olds I have to oppose
The statistic in the 2.10pm race
Suggests we can not accept unraced juveniles here right now
REEDANJAS is unraced and opposed
DANDY BIRD is unraced and opposed
I think one of 3 horses will win

HARBOUR LIGHTNING has every chance
His profile and numbers are pretty good
I just find JEANY a far better bred horse
I like her pedigree a lot more
WESTERN PRESENCE can't be ruled out
There is every chance he didn't stay 6f last time
And it was a Class 2 Handicap he ran in
Given the frame of the race and the negatives
I would play it this way

Selection

Split Stake Bet

£5 Win Bet JEANY 6/4

£5 Place Bet WESTERN PRESENCE 6/4



B e v e r l e y 3.10

9/4 Double Up, 9/4 Eastern Impact, 5/1 Hay Chewed
7/1 Ornate, 10/1 Line Of Reason, 16/1 Mirza, 16/1 Red Pike
20/1 Lightscameraction, 25/1 Caspian Prince, 33/1 Son Of Africa
50/1 Tangerine Trees, 100/1 Ziggy Lee.

This is a Conditions race over 5f
14 past renewals ofb this race
29 similar races elsewhere

DOUBLE UP is a smart sprinter
But I want to try and get him beaten
I want a fit horse with lots of recent runs here
Past winners had the following runs this season
5 7 2 6 10 5 9 9 2 8
We have had a couple win with just 2 runs
One was a very lightly raced 3yo though
And most horses had far more than he has

DOUBLE UP has had just 3 runs this season
Every other horse in the race has more runs
That puts him at a disadvantage straight away
DOUBLE UP has raced just once in 98 days
He may get away with it and win because of his class
But almost every other horse could be fitter than him

EASTERN IMPACT can't be ruled out
But there must be a doubt about him over 5f
His last 20 runs going back to April 2014
Were over the longer 6f distance
This is not a specialist 5f horse
That raises plenty of doubt about his chance

TANGERINE TREES looks outclassed these days
ZIGGY LEE is rated far too low
CASPIAN PRINCE seems to have gone off the boil
SON OF AFRICA has a small chance
But underperforming recently raises a doubt about him
LIGHTSCAMERACTION has raced once since March
I don't think he will be fit enough to win
MIRZA ran in France just 9 days ago
Well beaten in that race there are safer options
He is a 9 year old after all

RED PIKE has a chance
He is still unexposed over 5f
He comes from a good trial race the Portland
He will appreciate this smaller field from his last 2 races
Class 3 and a small field could be right up his street
Asking a lot to take this race though
With so many rated much higher


Shortlist

HAY CHEWED beat ORNATE last time
Not convinced she will beat her again
But I'd give her a chance
She is the only female horse in the race though
No track form. Not my first choice

ORNATE is the only 3yo in the race
But 3 year olds are fine in this race
His 2yo run in the Flying Childers earns him respect
He could easily be peaking again to his best form

LINE OF REASON was favourite in last years race
He flopped but he was hampered at the start
His Course and Distance Racing Post Ratings are big
If the ground is not too soft he has a serious chance
LINE OF REASON needs Class 3 or lower
He needs good or faster ground
He needs a recent run
If he gets these things he could easily be good enough

Selection

£4.50 Each Way LINE OF REASON 9/1 +

£1.00 Win Saver ORNATE 9/1





B a l l i n r o b e 3.50

13/8 Inchiquin High, 9/2 Khalessi, 9/2 Wilms Warrior
5/1 Echo Lady, 15/2 Whats In It For Me, 14/1 Queeny
20/1 Donegal Tuesday, 20/1 Freedom Statue
33/1 Boytonrath, 33/1 Think Of Me, 50/1 Harpurs Lane.

This is a 2m 4f Mares Maiden Hurdle

INCHIQUIN HIGH the favourite is a 7yo
She has raced once over hurdles
I am opposing her on this profile
If you look at these races in September
Run over every distance
And look at horses aged 7 or more
Those with under 4 career starts were 0-66
INCHIQUIN HIGH fails this 0-66 record
My Doubt about this is some have won in October
But in September none have so she is rejected
If I look at 5 year old hurdling debutants
All 38 that raced were beaten
WHATS IN IT FOR ME is rejected on that statistic
DONEGAL TUESDAY has a long absence and looks risky
FREEDOM STATUE doesn't appeal much
QUEENY was well beaten over 2m just 8 days ago
Shaky profile given her inexperience

Shortlist

KHALESSI was hammered last time
I'd expect better today but her profile is unsafe

If you look at 5 year olds
Who come from 2m maiden hurdles
I found 2 winners aged 5 doing this
Both of these had 5 career starts
Horses with this profile had a W W profile

WILMS WARRIOR has this profile
ECHO LADY has this profile
Both horses are positives as well

Selection

WILMS WARRIOR 7/2

Each Way


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