1 Bet today
0 Negative
3 Previews

Start of a Bank Holiday weekend and I aim
to have 4 bets in the next 4 days. Today just
3 previews. Lots of compact handicaps which
don't suit me much. One eye on the Saturday
message which I like to peak for. It's a quiet
Friday and it's more steady than spectacular.


Today's Bet

Brighton 3.50

Split Stake Bet

£5 Win JARIR 5/1

£5 Win GOLDENFIELD 10/11- Evens


Have half stakes on both horses
5 horse handicap
The aim is to buy the favourite out of the race
Finish just about level if Goldenfield wins
A JARIR victory would be an overall 2/1 winner
I feel the race should go to one of these two



T o d a y s M e s s a g e

Only 3 previews

I quite like all 3 of them
Could have put the all up as highlighted bets

I am using today to get back on the account
And leave good time to raise my game tomorrow



Brighton 3.50

Split Stake Bet

£5 Win JARIR 5/1

£5 Win GOLDENFIELD 10/11



Daily Negatives


No Negative Today


Results of Negatives
25 correct bets from 33



T h u r s d a y s R e v i e w


That horrible little message yesterday was
a radical contrast to Wednesdays message.
My suggested bet returned Zilch and I was
only pleased I didn't stake it. KILTY CAUL
ran like a Pig. That was disappointing much
as I didn't really trust that part of the bet as
the trainer's someone I try not to rely upon.

STUCCODOR ran out of petrol and I have
to say I read him completely wrong and the
horse made me look a fool. Interesting that
bet was based mainly on his career numbers
and I chose that argument and ignored what
seemed a strong case that he might not get
the distance. Like an idiot I overruled what
were compelling Breeding stats. I often like
to compare how different approaches work.
Whether my Race Statistics are right or if
using Numbers or Breeding Stats perform
better. I don't keep any records about this.

I can only guess which performs the better
and you might have an different impression
but it appears to me that my breeding stats
just operate at a much higher level to their
statistical colleagues and the numbers. I see
my Breeding Angles as comfortably better
and saver than any other approach I might
use yet on Thursday I ignored their advice.

I paid the price for that and produced what
was a toxic little message I want to forget.





P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s



B a t h 2.30

15/8 Believe It, 4/1 Knight Of The Air, 5/1 Marcano
7/1 Lord Of The Storm, 9/1 Saint Helena, 12/1 Wink Oliver
14/1 Nubar Boy, 16/1 Bailiwick, 20/1 Wahaab
25/1 Super Icon, 33/1 Rubheira, 40/1 Whistler Mountain.

This is a 0-65 Handicap over a Mile

BELIEVE IT is a horse I was following in winter
Today though I don't feel he has enough positives
First of all the Draw
Since 2013 there have been 19 races over 8f here
That had 10 or more runners
Horses drawn 1-2 have a 0-38 record
BELIEVE IT drawn 2 could have been better drawn
Main though it is 91 day absence that worries me

This is a Complicated Statistic
Handicaps in May and June
Run over 7f 8f 9f in 0-70 Class and Below
If I look at 4yo Males
Who have between 4 and 17 career starts
Those who ran this year
But who were absent longer than 46 days
Return a 0-108 record
BELIEVE IT fails this 0-108 profile
Because of this strange profile and his draw
I am going to look for an alternative

LORD OF THE STORM is drawn 1
That would really put me off him
His profile is average but it isn't dead
He is not a statistical negative but drawn 1 not for me

RUBHEIRA is outclassed
WHISTLER MOUNTAIN is a 4yo debutant
He has moved stables to Brian Barr
If you look at the trainers career record flat and jumps
Brian Barrs horses absent over 4 weeks are 0-88
The trainer record puts me off him
WAHAAB doesn't offer enough
Not with an absence and very inexperienced jockey
SUPER ICON didn't do enough last time
BAILIWICK doesn't offer enough

WINK OLIVER has to be avoided
His sire is a bit of a Pig
Look at Winker Watson runners over 8f or more
They have a 0-51 record
WINK OLIVER fails my breeding stats
NUBAR BOY didn't do enough last time
If I look at horses aged 9 or more
Who ran this year beaten 7 + lengths last time
I find a 0-94 record and NUBAR BOY fails this
SAINT HELENA is an 8yo Mare
I can't match her to any winners
I can't make her a negative
But her profile is unsafe

Shortlist

MARCANO is a 4yo up in distance
Solid enough profile and I see him as safe

KNIGHT OF THE AIR has a similar profile
I ran his exact profile and found a 3-21 record

Selection

£8 Win Bet KNIGHT OF THE AIR 11/4

£2 Win Bet MARCANO 5/1






B a t h 3.30

5/1 Barroche, 11/2 Speed Freak, 11/2 Tiggaliscious
7/1 Primrose Place, 15/2 Zambezi Queen, 17/2 Erica Bing
10/1 Pavela, 10/1 Star Catch, 11/1 Paco´s Angel
12/1 Giennah, 18/1 Nuptials, 28/1 Radar Love
28/1 Seminole Dream.

This is a 5f Novice for 2 year old fillies

Some very unorthodox draw statistics here
I looked at all 5f races at Bath since 2002

First of all if you look at horses drawn 12 or higher
The only winners I cold find had 3 or more career runs
Horses with 0-1-2 career runs drawn 12 or higher
Had a 0-79 record over 5f here since 2002
The favourite BARROCHE fails this drawn 12
ERICA BING also fails this obscure statistic
It is not just high numbers when lightly raced that are weak

Look at Unraced horses over 5f here
When racing in fields of 10 or more
Unraced horses drawn 1-2-3 are 0-72 since 2005
STAR CATCH has this problem unraced drawn 3
I'd be happy to ignore him first time from his stable
SEMINOLE DREAM fails the same statistic
GIENNAH also fails this 0-72 Draw Stat
I don't want her unraced drawn 2

So if we look at very lightly raced horses
Who race at Bath over 5f in decent sized fields
Every one that has won since 2005 were drawn 4-11

TIGGALISCIOUS is drawn 4 but not my first choice
Does not have a lot of scope
Her 3 runs have produced just average numbers
She has been 4th 2nd 3rd on Non Grade 1 tracks
Racing Post Ratings of 52 74 69
Not so sure that is going to be good enough today

PRIMROSE PLACE is her stablemate
Two reasonable runs without
ZAMBEZI QUEEN looks an unlikely winner

SPEED FREAK looks the solid runner each way
She is well drawn and has had a run
She was 3rd on her debut
finished Just behind Barroche and Tiggaliscious
SPEED FREAK was thought to need the run that day
She missed the break and had the worst draw
Watching the Video she should beat Tiggaliscious
That horse had the advantage of 2 runs against her
SPEED FREAK looked the better type to me
I think she is the natural each way bet in this

Selection

SPEED FREAK 4/1

Each Way


The alternative staking I liked
Was SPEED FREAK to win 4/1
And BAROCHE to Place at 4/6
Half Stakes on Both Bets
I will leave that up to you as not
everybody will have access to that bet.





B r i g h t o n 3.50

2/1 Goldenfield, 9/4 Summer Collection
5/2 Dr Drey, 6/1 Jarir, 12/1 Kemsing.

This is a 12f Handicap for 3 year olds
The race is just short of 12 furlongs

I want to conncentrate on the Topweights
GOLDENFIELD is Topweight
JARIR is Second Topweight

My Gut feeling is they will prove too strong
SUMMER COLLECTION only has 3 career starts

If you look at 3yo handicaps at Brighton
Run over 11 furlongs or more
Run between March and July
You find no horse won with just 3 runs
Those with under 4 runs had a 0-19 record
SUMMER COLLECTION has this problem
She is the least experienced horse in the race
She is the only filly in the race as well

I looked at all similar races in May and June
Looked at fillies from maidens this season
Those that were beaten last time were just 3-143
Those that raced in the last 8 weeks were just 1-130
SUMMER COLLECTION shares this poor 1-130 profile
The only winner (Rosewin) had 15lbs less weight
SUMMER COLLECTION has a weak profile for me

I don't fancy DR DREY
Very few horses by his sire stay this far
If you look at horses sired by Bahamian Bounty
Those that raced over 11 furlongs or more are 6-212
Thats a poor strike rate
Those that were absent more than 22 days were 1-76
Those absent that long with under 10 runs were 0-33
DR DREY has a 91 day absence
So few of the sires runners get home over 11f +
May be asking too much for him with a nasty absence
KEMSING didn't appeal much off bottomweight
Downgraded stables recently quite cheaply
Not progressive and may find classier types here
I think the Class horses will come to the fore

Shortlist

GOLDENFIELD won first time out
Only 1 run this year but he could follow up
I think I would rather buy him out of the race

JARIR is quite a big horse
I see him as the winner if handling the track
Thats something I cam't predict well
It is partly why I want the favourite as a saver
JARIR has run some decent consistent numbers
He was starting to look progressive last year
Which is no surprise as he was an expensive horse
He has lost his last 3 races now
I watched him at Lingfield and Wolves
I think he went too too fast in both races
Just seemed to set the race up for closers
Last time out at Bath they changed tactics
He was held up last in a big field at Bath
He had the widest draw that day as well
There was a very progressive winner in that race
JARIS never had the race run to suit him
But he stayed on nicely given a quiet ride
Not sure if he has any serious quirks
But recent races have not been run to suit him
His trainer could easily have got rid of him by ow
But he has kept him in training which is a positive
If he improves at 12f he could take this
But I like the staking strategy in the race
I feel I have 3 Negatives and 2 Positives
Buying the favourite out of the race makes sense

Selection

Split Stake

£5 Win JARIR 5/1

£5 Win GOLDENFIELD 10/11 - Evens

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