0 Account Bet
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0 Negatives
3 Races Discussed

A lack of choice was always going to be a
problem today with only two meetings we
can choose from. That said there are four
bets on Racing and Sport that I quite like.


There will be a Message tomorrow but we
will have to break on Tuesday as my office
is being painted so it must be the day off.




T o d a y s M e s s a g e


We have not had a bet since last Saturday.

I'm very conscious of that and can feel the
pressure building. I'm performing at quite
a competent level this week without being
at my best and I have been a bit unsettled
and indecisive this week. Lots of reasons
for that. Funerals take their toll. I have the
painters in as well which adds to the stress
and the inspections and abandonment's do
get in the way. I know these sound like just
excuses and must be annoying. I am going
to have another quieter day without a bet.

It won't be long before we start back on a
run of bets. I know when I am working well
and right and I am 90-95% there right now.


4 Betting Events I'd like to get right today


Football - Everton 1.7 to beat Swansea

Leopardstown 12.50 - Don´t Touch It 4/6 Win Bet

Chelmsford 3.25 - £7 Win Kalon Brama 9/2
Chelmsford 3.25 - £3 Win Clary 9/4

Chelmsford 3.55 - Miss Giler 7/4 Win Bet



Football - Everton 1.7 to beat Swansea

Obviously Everton are just a personal fancy
I feel they should have too much for Swansea
Your opinion is as good as mine if not better

Leopardstown 12.50

Don´t Touch It 4/6 is too short for a win bet
I'm going to have a small double with Everton


Chelmsford 3.25

£7 Win Kalon Brama 4/1
£3 Win Clary 9/4

This is where it gets interesting,
The case I make for Kalon Brama is compelling
But she is an old mule taking on improvers
That is not the most pleasant of thoughts
It is certainly the most interesting bet of my four
I think she is worth a bet today.
I would have preferred each way with 8 runners


Chelmsford 3.55 - Miss Giler 7/4 Win Bet

Miss Giler is not far off her last chance
She too is often vulnerable to improvers
Today I think she will have enough to win
There is a case for going with an each way double

The Main issue is whether to stake any or either
of the Chelmsford bets on the account. It was so
close but I am not going to do it for these reasons.



KALON BRAVE

Her price has gone from 11/2 to 9/2
That is annoying as is the 7 runner race
I wanted 8 runners and an each way bet
My angles make Invader a negative
But I think she has a better chance than that
My angles box me into a corner with her
If that is a mistake the bet is down
That's why I wanted to have those 3 places
It would offer great protection from 1 mistake
I'm happy to bet KALON BRAVE myself though

MISS GILER

I think she will win
It does bother me she gives 22lbs to 3 year olds
That is something I would rarely accept
My Race stats tell me that is not a big problem
But if her current rating of 71 you have to worry
If she runs to her best form she will win
But her ratings come down from 97 95 90 80 75 70 71
What is her true level of ability on that scale
This is why I am reluctant to stake her
Without more safety like an each way double
That said I think she will be too powerful today
And despite the weight for age feel she will win
But it will be as a personal bet and not an account one
The burden of proof is a lot less for personal bets




S a t u r d a y s S u m m a r y

A Saturday message without a bet is always
a bit disappointing. Despite that it fared ok.
It was very competitive and tried hard and
it coped quite well starting and ending with
winners. Just a look at the main four horses.

Fountains Windfall (each way) ran very well
and placed. Happy with the result. Those of
you betting each way Without the Favourite
did no damage and can consider yourself a
bit unlucky to be mugged on the line. I was
pleased with his run as a hurdling debutant.

The Lingfield 2.20 race went wrong and my
split stake trio all failed. It was a ridiculous
race with such a mad cap gallop and turned
it into a lottery. My selections may not have
won anyway. It didn't necessarily make any
difference but it was a falsely run race which
neutralised any statistics and randomised it.

Angus Man finished 3rd and that frustrated
me because if I had known his price then it
would have been an each way choice. The
negative was beaten but like I said this was
a race with some hard to read darker horses
and I am not surprised he ran well in defeat.

We got the Peter Marsh winner much as we
did have three horse staked. That said this
was roughly a 9/4 winner ending things well.

I thought it was a good message but lacked
some direction from me about what was the
strongest bet and because of that I'd accept
criticism that it didn't work. Take the lack of
a bet out of the equation and it did very well.





N e g a t i v e s

No Negative Today


Results of Negatives
20 correct bets from 26





P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s




L e o p a r d s t o w n 12.50

4/6 Don´t Touch It, 9/4 Beau Mome
5/1 Lip Service, 6/1 Jack The Wire
16/1 Scoir Mear, 20/1 Waterville Rock
25/1 Rock Lobster, 33/1 Ainslie, 33/1 Walkabout
33/1 Wee Tiger, 50/1 Johns Choice
50/1 Munstead Pride, 100/1 Kutitout
100/1 She´sournightmare.

This is a 2m maiden hurdle
I think DON´T TOUCH IT will have too much
Two hurdle runs provide 133 134 Racing Post Ratings
BEAU MOME has only recorded a 107
He is trained by Willie Mullins
Obviously this yard can improve horses a lot
But BEAU MOME's price will reflect that
He would be a bigger price if trained elsewhere
DON´T TOUCH IT does have a significant edge

Selection

DON´T TOUCH IT 4/6

Win Bet





C h e l m s f o r d 3.25

9/4 Clary, 3/1 Invade, 5/1 Kalon Brama
6/1 Desert Morning, 8/1 Ela Goog La Mou
9/1 Primrose Brown, 12/1 Hollie Point.

This is a fillies handicap over 8f
There are 52 similar races in January and February
There are a few negatives in this race
At least horses with weak profiles we should oppose

INVADE comes from a 6f race
DESERT MORNING comes from a 6f race
I looked at horses that ran over 6f or less this season
There was a 0-20 record which is no surprise
That would have been higher with a bigger sample

If we look at Mile handicaps in January and February
Any Class of race open to fillies and males
Horses that raced within 5 months
Coming from a 6f race or shorter
Having under 10 career starts
Horses with this profile have a 0-58 record
Basically it is very hard to do
And none so far have managed it in Jan-February

DESERT MORNING fails this 0-58 stat with 6 runs
INVADE fails this 0-58 stat with 8 runs
She has raced just once since August
HOLLIE POINT is rejected for similar reasons
Just 1 run in 5 months and well beaten in that run
PRIMROSE BROWN is the next negative
No 5yo has won from a maiden like her
Weak profile and stable and cost just £800

ELA GOOG LA MOU may not have the class
She has 32 runs and none were beyond class 5
She has a miserable level of backclass
All her 3 career wins came over 2 furlongs longer
ELA GOOG LA MOU has been running in 0-55 Class
I don't think she will have the class


Shortlist

CLARY is a proven performer here (W W 2 record)
Exposed 6 year olds do well with recent runs
She is well treated off 66 and should go well

KALON BRAMA is the class horse with topweight
You can look at her in 2 different ways
Lets take the negative view first
She has never won in this Class before (0-13)
She is 9lbs higher than her best previous win
She looks badly handicapped in a Class she's winless in

Now look at the positive view we can take
KALON BRAMA rated 75 faces a 0-74 Class field
Now if you ignore the rank outsider Hollies Point
Who probably wont be fit enough to win
Then She faces only a 0-65 Class field
KALON BRAMA has just ran in a 0-91 Class race
She was beaten 8 lengths in 5th place
But her rivals were rated 82 81 73 79 91 77
Todays rivals are rated just 74 65 65 65 59 53
This is a Massive drop in Class
Look at her run on December 2nd
Over this course and distance beaten a Neck
Her rivals were rated 83 83 79 80 78 84
Again this is miles better than this grade

I prefer to see her profile as a positive
When you look at her you dont see much
She is a smaller type usually held up
She doesn't fill you with much confidence
But over her best course and distance
She really ought to be competitive here
I think the best plan is a win bet and saver

CLARY has to be shortlisted
If Kalon Brama disappoints she could save us
KALON BRAMA is the main bet
I think I've made a good case for her

Selection

£7 Win KALON BRAMA 5/1

£3 Win CLARY 9/4





C h e l m s f o r d 3.55

7/4 Miss Giler, 5/2 Fun For All, 5/1 Haunted
9/1 Fun Money, 12/1 Muhazwara, 14/1 Graceful Lady
14/1 Reverent, 25/1 Do It Tomorrow, 25/1 Teputina
33/1 Mighty Lady, 66/1 Orangecherie.

This is maiden over 10f for all aged fillies
Only 2 similar races in January
I can't based any sensible angles on this

I fancy MISS GILER to win this
Normally I would rather have a 3 year old
MISS GILER is a 4 year old and gives weight away
But I just can't accept any other horse in the race

I fancied MISS GILER last time
She was given an over confident ride in 2nd
And met what looks like an improving horse

MISS GILER has a 0-12 record
She should have won by now
She was highly tried in early 2015
She had some impossible tasks back then

MISS GILER had 3 months break after June 2105
She spurned a few chances to win after that
The truth is she is not progressing
She is not a big horse and runs into the same problem
She invariably bumps into horses improving past her

That she has a past Racing Post Rating of 93
She could win this if repeating her last figure of 75
Her chance is obvious and dependent on one thing
The quality of the opposition she faces

Every other horse against her looks unsafe
None that ran have Racing Post Ratings above 65

FUN MONEY has raced once
Starting 50/1 in a small field tells you a lot
Racing Post Rating of 53 far low to consider her


HAUNTED is the 3rd favourite and unraced
David Simcock has just won with an unraced 3yo
Barton Lodge won on Friday over 10f on his debut
HUNTED therefore must be respected
My Breeding Statistics question her though
HAUNTED is unraced and sired by Invincible Spirit
Invincible Spirit has bred many unraced winners
The longest distance any of them won at on debut
Was the 8f and 141 yards trip at Wolverhampton
None sired by Invincible Spirit won on debut over 9f +
Not a compelling statistic and few were fancied
But none have done it yet which worries me
That makes HAUNTED unsafe
She is trying to get 10f at Chelmsford on her debut
Because of that I am looking elsewhere

FUN FOR ALL has raced once
Modest figure on her debut
To be fair to her she ran a nice race on her debut
FUN FOR ALL does have some ability
I rate her a danger but she is not 1st choice
I just feel MISS GILER will have to much for her

Selection

MISS GILER 7/4

Win Bet


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