0 Bet today
0 Negative
3 Previews

Slower 3 race message today
I haven't found as much as I'd like
Partly down to Musselburgh abandoned
And Chelmsford offering nothing
Probably did too much yesterday as well
Feels a day where I have ran into limitations
So backing off a bit with a shorter message
A proposal about the account as well
Highlighting 2 races today



T o d a y s M e s s a g e

Today's Bet

No Staked Bet

The Hennessy Declarations are out later
I may put some time into that race this afternoon
It could shorten tomorrow's message a bit
In terms of today's racing options are limited
I am highlighting two races today


Towcester 12.35

£8 Win Bet TINTED ROSE 9/4
£2 Win Bet SISTER SIBYL 7/2


Taunton 1.15

£7 Win Bet FAIR TO MIDDLING 3/1
£3 Saver CULM COUNSELLOR 3/1


Both races hang on the same principle
Opposing the 4 year old favourite in each race

The first at Towcester has bumper form
She fails either a 0-111 or 1-131 statistic

The other at Taunton is a lightly raced 4yo
None like him have won similar handicaps
When so inexperienced

I will be disappointed if we can't get at
least one of these races right and profit.





Account Bets

Possible Structural Changes

2 Accounts

Just chewing an idea over in my head
Could be worth thinking about a change
Running two accounts at the same time

The current account would stay as it is
No changes whatsoever to the status quo

But we could add a second account
I would call this the Daily account
It would guarantee 1 bet a day
Practicably it would be my best bet that day
Results would be monitored and recorded
And would run alongside the usual account

I will chew that over for a couple of days
See if there is any good or bad feedback
And think about implementing this on Sunday




Daily Negatives

No Negative Today

Results of Negatives
27 correct bets from 39



R e v i e w i n g Y e s t e r d a y

There were 9 previews yesterday
These finished P L L W P L W W L
Started poorly as I suggested it might
3 Winners 2 Places 4 Losers overall
Not too bad an effort from the 9 previews
The best bet AL REEH won always pleasant
He was well backed and hard to stake
STAR STORM was one of the bad results
He was given a useless ride to be fair
One of the losers included a Faller
I think we were competitive in most races
At the very worst I would say a score draw



P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s



T h u r l e s 12.30

6/4 General Principle, 5/2 Bellow Mome
9/2 Jimmy Two Times, 8/1 Damut, 12/1 Joxer
12/1 Redrobin, 16/1 Powersbomb, 25/1 Cappacurry Zak
33/1 Rightback Atya, 66/1 Germany John,
66/1 Old Meadow, 66/1 Templemichael.

Beginners Chase over 2m 2f
This is a race few can win
Only 3 horses under 28/1

GENERAL PRINCIPLE has 1 Chase run
It was a good run just 12 days ago

His profile is extremely complicated
1 run this year
Under 8 career starts
I looked at all similar horses with his profile
The dilemma with him is a 12 day absence

Those that raced 13-15 days ago were fine
Those that raced under 13 days ago were 0-61
Technically he does fail that 0-61 record
The stat revolves around one thing
Whether the race comes too soon for certain horses
GENERAL PRINCIPLE is on the borderline of this issue
He fails it only by 1 day and I can't hang him on that
That said this is a race with a generous frame

JIMMY TWO TIMES must have an each way chance
I ran his profile and it was neutral
Racing Post Chase rating of 126
That is more than enough to give him a chance
He had decent hurdle form as well
He should not be too far away
He may just lack the class of the front two

BELLOW MOME has a strong profile
Many 5yo Chase debutants win first time out
We can not know if he is fit or fancied
Or whether he can jump but his profiles solid
It is a classical 5yo Beginners Chase profile
And the best profile in the race

Selection

£8 Win Bet BELLOW MOME 11/4

£2 Win Bet JIMMY TWO TIMES +





T o w c e s t e r 12.35

11/4 Tinted Rose, 3/1 Sister Sibyl, 4/1 Katy P
5/1 Phoeniciana, 8/1 Sparkling River, 12/1 My Cousin Rachel
20/1 Singininthevalleys, 25/1 Little Dotty, 25/1 Parlour Maid
33/1 Kaspian Tern, 50/1 Outrageous Romana, 50/1 Yeats Baby
66/1 Ermyn´s Edith.

This is a 2m Maiden Hurdle for Mares

KATY P the favourite has a weak profile
She is a 4yo and comes from a recent bumper

October November December
Mares Maiden Hurdles
Mares Novice Hurdles
Both types of race
Any Distance during these 3 months
Horses aged 4
Coming from a Bumper this season
Running within 31 days
Horses with this profile were 0-111
KATY P fails this 0-111 record

I can find a winner that did it in Ireland
That was Quiet Thought in 2010
If I include Irish racing in the statistic
Then it becomes a 1-131 record which isn't great
I think we have to try and get her beaten

PHOENICIANA is 5 from a recent Bumper
Harder profile to read but not a good one

October November December
If you look at Mares Maiden Hurdles
2m 2f and shorter
Horses aged 5
Under 3 previous hurdle runs
Running in the last 5 months
Horses with this profile were 1-61
The only winner was long odds on
That was Tara Flow 1/6 in a tiny field

PHOENICIANA shaes this 1-61 profile
MY COUSIN RACHEL also shares it
I don't think she ran well enough 9 days ago

SPARKLING RIVER is sired by Indian River
Horses sired by Indian River
In Hurdle races over 2m - 2m 4f
Those with under 3 hurdle runs were just 1-89
That only winner won a dreadful race
SPARKLING RIVER has a weak breeding profile

Shortlist

SISTER SIBYL has a decent profile
Horses Age 5
Coming from Listed Bumpers last season
Have a W 2 2 2 record
The one trying with 2 runs like her finished 2nd

TINTED ROSE has the best profile
Horses aged 4
1 Hurdle run
Running within a Month
Beaten under 20 lengths in that race
3-4-5 career starts
Horses with this profile had a 3-8 record
TINTED ROSE has this 3-8 profile

Selection

£8 Win Bet TINTED ROSE 9/4

£2 Win Bet SISTER SIBYL 7/2






T a u n t o n 1.15

5/4 Lost In Lecce, 5/2 Culm Counsellor
7/2 Fair To Middling, 10/1 Mondello
12/1 Quarryman.

3m Novice Handicap Hurdle

LOST IN LECCE is a 4 year old
He only has 2 lifetime starts
No Flat form to fall back on
That struck me as a bit inexperienced
Especially over a distance as long as this
The following statistic suggests it's an issue

October November December
All Handicap hurdles
2m 6f or more
Any Class of race
Horses aged 4
Under 4 career starts
Have a 0-27 record
LOST IN LECCE shares this 0-27 profile
Obviously his best chance comes from a tiny field
But I am going to take him on

QUARRYMAN steps up a mile in trip
Pulling up 7 days ago is not a safe profile
MONDELLO also pulled up last time
He also steps up a mile in distance

CULM COUNSELLOR won last time out
That was only over 2m 2f though
If I look at horses winning short of 2m 4f last time
Those aged 6 or more doing that were 0-10
Those with 5 + hurdle runs doing it were 0-9
CULM COUNSELLOR is 7 and has 14 hurdle runs
He is a bit exposed to be following up
That said he may improve a lot over this kind of trip
He gets plenty of weight as well
And has to be part of the staking plan

FAIR TO MIDDLING has the numbers to win
He is taking a big drop in class
Whilst I'd have liked a better last run
He should be more at home in this class


Selection

£7 Win Bet FAIR TO MIDDLING 3/1

£3 Saver CULM COUNSELLOR 3/1


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