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1 Profile & Preview bet
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5 Races Discussed

Happy new year everybody and welcome
to the 2016 messages and I will be happy
if we can repeat last years performance.


Today's Bet

Cheltenham 12.45

PERFECT CANDIDATE 4/1

Each Way


9/2 Chandler Corals
4/1 All other firms


Bank Holiday today and there is always a
danger of doing too many previews and
overcooking the message. My plan today
is to target a few races and be accurate.

That's more than the Racing Post deliver
today. They have had a disaster with their
Southwell card. They have missed off all
the recent races the runners have had.

Their card is simply inaccurate and must
not be trusted. They seem to be having
some sort of Millennium type bug. By the
time I realised It meant I had to go back
and completely restart the previews and
their mistake has cost unnecessary time.
It's why it is shorter than it may have been.


Today's Bet

Cheltenham 12.45

PERFECT CANDIDATE 4/1

Each Way


9/2 Chandler Corals
4/1 All other firms


Saturday Message tomorrow
Only 4 meetings and some small fields
Hopefully the Racing Post have repaired their site





T o d a y s M e s s a g e



5 previews today

Not going to let the Racing Post Cock up
worry me at all. It's strange but when the
last two bets have won I feel so confident
and able to deal with anything thrown at me.

The Plan today is One bet hopefully a winner

I nearly added a 6th Preview but ran out of time
That would have been the 1.50 Fakenham
I was close to opposing the favourite
And going with Johns Luck 6/1 each way
I will leave that up to you. I ran out of time.
Without the Racing Post causing problems
5 previews would have been 7 or 8

In terms of a Bet

I could have gone with any of my 5 previews

I nearly went with Dungannon in the 2.05
I think he will travel well and overpower these late
But he is now 9/4 from 11/4 and that's a shame
Especially as I want a saver on Oriental Relation 9/1

Cheltenham would not be the easiest place to get
a winner today but I have gone there for my Bet.


Cheltenham 12.45

PERFECT CANDIDATE 4/1

Each Way

We have 8 runners
He likes a small field
I would be disappointed if we get a non runner
If we do the bet still stands
I thought about the win bet
With a saver on Alternatif
But instead decided to go each way
Lots of horses have flaws in this race



T h u r s d a y ' s R e v i e w

A very nice end to the year with a winning
account bet on Thursday at 2/1. It was just
a two preview message but both managed
to win very easily. I expect a few doubled
them up which was always an option but I
was happy enough with the win single on
the account. Good end to the year. Since
we had the 33/1 winner to blast away that
poor run we have not put a foot wrong so
when the 2015 figures get done It's likely
to be a big profitable year maybe our best.





P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s



F a i r y h o u s e 12.15

5/2 Cape City Boy, 3/1 Dont Tell No One
4/1 Blessed King, 5/1 Sizinguptheamazon
6/1 Laid Back Luke, 16/1 Westbury Lad
25/1 Herbiegoesbananas, 25/1 Just William
33/1 Red Bandit, 50/1 Beneficial Societ
50/1 Nendrum, 50/1 Returntovendor
100/1 Brought Joe Home, 100/1 Celtic Bright.

This is a 2m 4f Maiden Hurdle

CAPE CITY BOY has had 1 previous hurdle run
I had a look at his sire's hurdlers
Those sired by Cape Cross running over 2m 4f +
Hes only had 1 winner with under 2 hurdle runs
That winner was far more experienced
CAPE CITY BOY is very lightly raced
I was a little bit put off once I realised this
He does not have much experience to draw from

DONT TELL NO ONE is a dark horse
He is 8 year old and has an 883 day absence
Only 1 race winning a Bumper back in August 2003
I can find a 7yo (Steady Tiger) back in 2009
Who won with a 731 day absence over a shorter trip
None aged 8 though so he isn't like a winner
But I wouldn't make him a negative from a top stable
The following statistic raises a doubt though

January Novice Hurdles since 2002
Running over 2m 1f or longer
Horses aged 8 or more
Having under 2 previous hurdle runs
Horses with this profile have a 1-116 record
That winner (Before Dark) a 40/1 shock in 2006
DONT TELL NO ONE shares this 1-116 record
LAID BACK LUKE also shares this 1-116 record
SIZINGUPTHEAMAZON has a very average profile
He has been gambled so needs a second look

He may win but not the sort I am looking for
BLESSED KING looks the safest choice
Pound For Pound I felt he had best profile

Selection

BLESSED KING 9/2

Each Way





E x e t e r 12.35

11/4 Precious Ground, 3/1 Buckboru
4/1 Arty Bella, 4/1 Mount Prospex, 8/1 Kudu Shine
16/1 Petite Fantasie, 16/1 Shoofly Milly,

This is a Novice Handicap Hurdle over 2m 7f
PRECIOUS GROUND has a strong form chance
It is his stamina that worries me

Horses sired by Helissio
Running over hurdles
2m 5f or more
There is a poor 1-73 record with these horses
Those that raced over 2m 6f or more were 0-53
PRECIOUS GROUND fails this statistic
This is heavy ground and 2m 7f
There are some Chases winning from this sire
It is easier to stay over fences
But look at this sires Hurdlers and Chases over 2m 6f +
Only 1 won over fences on ground softer than good
I have my reservations about him staying
KUDU SHINE is a 10 year old seasonal debutant
No horse his age won first time out
Throw in topweight and he is unsafe
There are a lot of unsafe profiles
SHOOFLY MILLY is a mare hammered in recent starts
ARTY BELLA is a very lightly raced mare
She was beaten 78 lengths just 2 weeks ago
Starting 200/1 in a Novice Hurdle leaves me cold
PETITE FANTASIE is not showing any encouragement

Shortlist

MOUNT PROSPEX is a seasonal debutant
He comes from a very small stable

BUCKBORU looks the safest option
She has experience and recent runs
Proven track form and a guaranteed stayer

Selection

BUCKBORU 3/1

Win Bet





C h e l t e n h a m 12.45

2/1 Alternatif, 7/2 Perfect Candidate
9/2 Beg To Differ, 15/2 Financial Climate
8/1 De Kerry Man 9/1 Indian Castle
16/1 Al Co, 16/1 Hollow Blue Sky.

This is a Handicap Chase over 3m 2f

BEG TO DIFFER has had just 2 Chase starts
Complicated situation to asses a horse like that

I looked at every similar Cheltenham Handicap Chase
Those over 3m 1f + in Class 2 or higher since 2001
That is at any time of year

Horses with Under 3 Chase runs won 2 races
Mendip Express did it in this race in 2013
Ashkazar did it in April 2012 in a small field
Both these horses were 8 year olds
BEG TO DIFFER is only a 6 year old
Mendip Express had a Chase Racing Post Rating of 145
Ashkazar had a Chase Racing Post Rating of 141
BEG TO DIFFER has only got a rating of 127
I looked at horses aged under 7
That won Cheltenham Handicaps with under 3 Chase runs
That is over any distance in Class 2 or higher
The only winner was the 4yo Unioniste in 2012
I think I have to oppose him in this race
I think my statistics paint him in a negative light

INDIAN CASTLE is sired by Dr Massini
Horses sired by Dr Massini
Running over 3m 1f + in Class 2 or higher
There is a 0-53 record with this sires runners
INDIAN CASTLE fails my breeding statistics

AL CO is rejected aged 11 with 1 bad run this year
HOLLOW BLUE SKY was hammered in last years race
Just 1 run in several months recently
Well beaten and not a horse that offers me enough
DE KERRY MAN is W W W over fences
He is a seasonal debutant with just 3 Chase runs
I opposed Beg To Differ earlier with 2 Chase runs
No easier to win with 3 Chase runs with a big absence
I looked at every similar Cheltenham Handicap Chase
Those over 3m 1f + in Class 2 or higher since 2001
No seasonal debutant won with under 4 Chase runs
DE KERRY MAN looks unsafe and has other issues
Look at horses sired by Westerner
Running over 3m 1f or more
When the ground was softer than good
Those that raced in Class 2 or higher were 0-9
DE KERRY MAN is not safe on my breeding stats

FINANCIAL CLIMATE is 8 and has 23 chase runs
No horse has won this with 18 or more Chase runs
Ignore French Form and most had far fewer runs
There are 21 similar races in January
Class 2 + Handicap Chases between 3m 1f and 3m 3f
If you look at these 21 races
20 of the winners had 17 or fewer Chase starts
Those with more were 1-50
These races rarely go horses with so many chase runs
He is not safe on my breeding stats either
If I look at his sire Exit to Nowhere
The only winners he has bred over 3m 2f +
Came in lower grade races


Shortlist

ALTERNATIF
PERFECT CANDIDATE

ALTERNATIF is only a 6yo
That is not the best age in this race
The 2006 winner was 6 from the same stable
The last 8 winners were all aged 8 or more
ALTERNATIF only has 3 Chase starts
And he has to carry topweight as well
I cant find a horse winning a race like him
He is improving though and must be respected

PERFECT CANDIDATE has a lot in his favour
He loves a small field like this
His first run of the year was needed
He does not have a good record fresh
He was then 5th at Cheltenham over 3m 3f
That was the very outskirts of his stamina range
He was very dubious last time on breeding stats
Ran very well not beaten too far in a far better race
He should be able to win this race
My only issue is 2 prep runs at Cheltenham
2 tough races and is he ready for a break
Massive chance though for me in a small field

Selection

PERFECT CANDIDATE 4/1

Each Way





S o u t h w e l l 12.55

7/2 Indomitable Spirit, 5/1 Excelling Oscar
5/1 General Tufto, 7/1 Roger Thorpe, 8/1 Basingstoke
8/1 Luv U Lucky, 10/1 Frantical, 14/1 Quadriga
14/1 Stun Gun, 16/1 Miss Lillie, 33/1 Eeny Mac
33/1 Rolen Sly, 50/1 Madakheel, 100/1 L´es Fremantle.

This is a 0-60 handicap over a Mile
Not a significant draw bias here
I have taken out the profiles I feel are weak
The following horses fail fitness angles

BASINGSTOKE has raced just once since March
MADAKHEEL absent too long for a filly
EENY MAC absent too long for a 9yo
ROLEN SLY is not safe with his absence
L´ES FREMANTLE isn't running well enough
LUV U LUCKY comes from a 6f race
The Racing Post are not showing his last run
But he did have one on December 15th
Horses going from 6f to 8f had a 4-85 record
Those with under 11 career starts were 0-25
LUV U LUCKY only has 4 runs and it's not enough
QUADRIGA has just done a career worst performance
He isn't running well enough
STUN GUN doesn't offer enough
Drawn widest of all and no backclass to fall back on

FRANTICAL is an unexposed 4yo
With a recent run he has a neutral profile
I would see him as a positive on his profile
But the surface has to be the main concern
2 modest runs here and his sire's record is weak
His sires Southwell runners are only 2-79
Those that ran in handicaps were 0-43
Too many doubts about the surface for me

INDOMITABLE SPIRIT won a 7f race last time
4 year olds doing that had a 1-14 record
Those with more than 5 runs doing that were 0-13
INDOMITABLE SPIRIT has 13 runs
Not a safe profile and Stall 1 may not help much

EXCELLING OSCAR won an 8f handicap last time
There were 7 winners aged 4 doing this
They all had under 13 career starts
Those with 13 or more runs doing it were 0-11
EXCELLING OSCAR has now had 25 runs
I looked at all last time 4 year old winners
Those that won over any distance last time
Those with 13 or more runs were 0-20
That raises a statistical doubt about him
Is he too exposed to expect him to follow up

ROGER THORPE was beaten 11 lengths last time
That weakens his profile which is just average
I selected him in a preview when he won before that
He was absent between February and September
He had ran himself fit and was able to win 2 runs ago
If he can overcome his last run he could win

GENERAL TUFTO is 11 years old now
Despite that I can not rule him out
I don't really want a horse that old drawn 13
Just under a year since he last won a race
He was running far better numbers a year ago
Before he won his previous race
My angles say don't rule him out

MISS LILLIE is a 4yo filly from a 7f race
That would not be my perfect profile
She has never raced here before either
That said she is bred to like this surface
She caught my eye on video last time
That gives me hope she is just coming alive
The Racing Post say she has a 41 day absence
She doesn't she ran 16 days ago
That gives her a better chance and I liked her

Selection

MISS LILLIE 12/1

Each Way






S o u t h w e l l 2.05

11/4 Dungannon, 5/1 Come On Dave, 7/1 Brother Tiger
8/1 Scarborough, 10/1 Anonymous John, 10/1 Apache Storm
10/1 Keep It Dark, 12/1 Air Of York, 12/1 Desert Command
14/1 Oriental Relation, 14/1 Rita´s Boy, 25/1 Royal Bajan.

This is a 5f handicap for 0-90 rated horses
January has 34 similar races

I will start with some Number
Racing Post Ratings
Southwell 5f only
The last 12 Months

101 Dungannon
95 Dungannon
94 Scarborough
91 Royal Bajan
90 Rita's Boy
89 Royal Bajan
88 Oriental Relation
87 Come On Dave
86 Keep It Dark
83 Rita's Boy
76 Rita's Boy - Scarborough
75 Oriental Relation - Scarborough

High drawn winners are very unusual here
Those drawn 10 or more have a bad record
One has just won a very well treated Irish raider
But since July 2012 only 2 drawn 10 or more have
I would be keen to avoid the high draws

ROYAL BAJAN has a bad draw in Stall 10
He's 2 bad runs in 7 months and doesn't look ready
RITA´S BOY has a bad draw in Stall 11
He may be worth keeping en eye on
His last 3 races over 5f at Southwell
Have been from Draws of 9 10 11 which is unlucky
I just can't forgive him Stall 11 today
Not on a career high mark in a class he's yet to win in
APACHE STORM has the worst draw in Stall 12
She is also a filly with an absence as well

AIR OF YORK has an unsafe profile
He is a 4yo and drops down from 6f
Horses aged 4 doing this were 3-32
AIR YORK is not like any of the 3 winners
Those with 13 or more runs doing this were 0-21
Those that raced within the last 2 weeks were 0-17
Those beaten more than 2 lengths were 0-21
AIR OF YORK is not a good fit
He looks badly handicapped to me
Runs off a rating of 88 but has only ever won off 77
His 5f numbers are miles behind what today requires

DESERT COMMAND has never run here before
He has never won in this class before either
Not for me well beaten last time in a lower grade

BROTHER TIGER is 7 and has a 30 day absence
Not impossible to overcome that as a 7yo
But he does have several things to prove
He has never won in this Class before
He has never won off his current mark
He has never raced at Southwell before either
All bar one of his opponents have more recent runs
I feel there are too many unknown factors with him

ANONYMOUS JOHN is 4 and drops from 6f
He mainly runs over further than this
He has also never run at Southwell before
But his sire has a very smart Southwell record
So it could be an advantage coming here
He has plenty to prove though over 5f
And he is on a career high mark as well
We know from Air of York's profile
That horses from 6f races were 3-32
Those with 13 or more runs doing this were 0-21
ANONYMOUS JOHN fails this with 33 career runs
So his profile isn't safe and he is unraced here
Yet he may well need a career best to win
Over a trip he hasn't tried in Months as well
Throw in a 7lbs claimer and I am not sold

COME ON DAVE was 4th here last time
That run entitles him to be respected
He has won in this class off this mark
That was at Chelmsford though in a smaller field
This is going to need just about a career best
Won't be easy for a horse like him
Who is better in a smaller field
If you look at his record in fields of 10 or more
He is 0-22 racing above a Class 6 race
Not sure I'd want a small field horse drawn 1

SCARBOROUGH is a 5yo mare
I looked at 5yo mares and they were 0-19
Ran ok here last time out
But this is a career high mark today
In a Class She has yet to win in before
He has also just moved stables as well
First run for a new yard raises another doubt

KEEP IT DARK is an exposed 7 year old
His best win came off a mark of 78
That was in a Class 4 race
Today he tried to win a Better Class 3 race
When having a high mark of 82
KEEP IT DARK will need a career best today
He is 0-4 never placing in this class before
I don't see why he should win this today

ORIENTAL RELATION ran 2 days ago over 6f
Respected with a recent run
No winners were like him though
and not a stable I would want to trust easily
But that recent run does assist him

DUNGANNON is a 9 year old
Not an age I am drawn to but some do win
He has raced just once in 68 days
His last race was over course and distance
That was in a Racing Post Rating of 95
That puts him right into contention today
Having one race in 68 days does concern me
He dominates my Racing Post Ratings table
His 2nd best number was after 7 weeks absence
In terms of course and distance
He is easily the strongest runner in this field
I think he may just outclass this field
I want a small saver in case his fitness hurts him

Selection

£9 Win DUNGANNON 11/4

£1 Win ORIENTAL RELATION 9/1

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