0 Account Bet
0 Negative
4 Previews

Done the Borders National as planned
Three other races looked interesting
Nothing at Huntingdon as per usual
Kelso has 3 previews
Fairyhouse has 1 preview
I have not gone with a staked bet
There are some awkward staking issues
But I think there are some bets worth having
Especially the 2.50 and 3.10 races


Today's Bet

No Staked Bet





T o d a y s M e s s a g e


4 Previews

Previewed the Kelso 1.20
Probably trying to be a bit too clever here
Taking on a long odds on favourite
Horrible frame to the race
Any my breeding stats won't support me
So I shan't bother highlighting this race


Kelso 2.20

£6.00 Win Bet SMOOTH STEPPER 7/1
£2.00 Each Way GROVE SILVER 12/1 +

Low Stakes here
Had a good crack at the Borders National
Lots of potential non stayers
Very often these are borderline decisions though
Reasonably happy with my negatives
Not entirely convinced about my positives
No idea about how best to stake this race
I much prefer the next two previews



Kelso 2.50

DYNASTE 2/1

Dynaste in a Veterans Chase
That feels a very smart move under 3 miles
I could spend all morning looking this bet
And I would be none the wiser given his quirks
One of those bets that looks a certainty on paper
And He is a certainty until He isn't !
Has the potential to let anyone down anytime
But given the choice of being with him or not
I was never in any doubt he had to be the bet

I tell you what I am thinking
And some of you will detest this thought
But what about DYNASTE Each Way at 2/1 ?

He has never fallen in his life
He hardly ever finishes unplaced
When he has done it is usually Grade 1 races
Or races where he patently does not stay
Massive Class drop
Taking on only Veterans
Can he be out of the frame ?
Some will love this bet
Others will hate it
Personally I love it

The other option would be this

£8 Win Bet DYNASTE 2/1
£2 Win Bet AERIAL 7/2

It is a bet offering multiple staking options
If you want to bother with extra safety
You could just bet him to win at 2/1
Bottom line is I think DYNASTE should win




Fairyhouse 3.10

£7.50 Win Bet CAPTAIN VON TRAPPE 8/1

£2.50 Win Bet FOREVER GOLD 11/4

Part of this bet I really love
The bet is based on some assumptions
The big problem we face is this
CAPTAIN VON TRAPPE comes here F F
He has fallen in both his last 2 races
That is a problem but if we can get past that
There is a very interesting case for him
Based on outclassing and outstaying the rest
The Fell Fell situation makes it harder to stake
Because I may have gone each way without that
I wanted the saver on FOREVER GOLD anyway

Today's Best Bet


Kelso 2.50

DYNASTE 2/1







Daily Negatives

No Official Negative

Results of Negatives
27 correct bets from 39





Saturday's Summary

Quite a heavy 9 race message yesterday
The previews finished P L L L P P W L

The top of the message highlighted 5 bets
These finished L P L P P so no outright winner
Money back in 3 and 2 losers

TACAPELLA BOURGEOIS placed each way
Did nothing wrong trading odds on and ran well
CRANK EM UP finished only 4th and unplaced
I think he was a bit unlucky not to place
The winners stopped his momentum
It cost him some ground
Hard to be sure but he may well have placed
The Becher Chase unluckily went badly wrong
But nothing much we could do about that
SAINT ARE fell at the 1st ALVARADO at the 2nd
That was unexpected and left us frustrated.

SEEFOOD managed second in the Grand Sefton
I staked that well as we didn't lose money
But I made a different mistake with the race
I fancied the winner in the Paddy Power Gold Cup
So how could I not fancy it in that weaker race
I just got hung up on the age issue looking for maturity
But not too unhappy as I staked our bet well

The main bet was MORNEY WING with savers
I was annoyed at the price crumbling all morning
He was 20/1 early and barely 14/1 when I sent the bet
He ran his heart out and placed in 3rd nicking a profit
Couldn't ask any more from him
We can't pretend it was a winning message
But it was dominated more by placed bets than losers




P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s




K e l s o 1.20

1/2 Kelka, 6/1 Near To Tears
6/1 Oscar´s Prospect, 8/1 Floramoss
25/1 Moscanisi, 33/1 Bonnie Lizzie
33/1 Lady London.

Mares maiden hurdle over an extended 2m 4f

KELKA has the best form
But 4/9 and 2/5 seems very short
She is 11lbs ahead on Racing Post Ratings

But that's not out of reach
And I just feel there is a slight stamina doubt
Although my breeding stats do not suggest this
The sire was a miler on the flat who never stayed further
She is a lightly raced 4 year old filly
I think there is a chance this could stretch her

7 Runners make this even messier
So we are quite likely to lose money here
But I am going to take her on with 3 others

£4 Each Way NEAR TO TEARS 7/1 (1/4 Odds 1,2)

£1 Win Bet OSCAR´S PROSPECT 8/1

£1 Win Bet FLORAMOSS 12/1






K e l s o 2.20

5/1 Millicent Silver, 6/1 Emperor´s Choice
6/1 Royale Knight, 7/1 Carrigdhoun, 7/1 Kilbree Chief
8/1 Smooth Stepper, 10/1 Cultram Abbey, 10/1 Harry The Viking
10/1 Scotswell, 12/1 Grove Silver, 20/1 Itstimeforapint
20/1 Mia´s Anthem.

The Scottish Borders National
Is a Handicap Chase over 4 miles

There are 7 renewals of this race
There are 35 similar races at this time of year

ROYALE KNIGHT won this race in 2013
He did it with 10st 3lbs
He now tries to win it again with 11st 12lbs
I don't think he stays despite winning this before
That renewals was in a small field in a very slow pace
I said at the time and many times since
He didn't stay and few of his sire runners do
And with Topweight after a heavy defeat
ROYALE KNIGHT is opposed
No horse has won this race with his weight anyway

EMPEROR´S CHOICE has the same problem
He is 1 seasonal debutant aged 11
There are 35 similar races at this time of year
Only 1 of the 35 winneres were seasonal debutants
That winner was a 7 year old
EMPEROR´S CHOICE has never won off this mark

MILLICENT SILVER is the other seasonal debutant
Only 1 of the 35 winners won first time out
And MILLICENT SILVER is a Mare
It is obviously an unsafe profile
But I cant say it is a very bad one as so few tried
I know if we look at Handicap Chases over 2m 6f or more
Run in November and December
In Class 4 and Higher
Mares with under 10 Chase starts
Are 0-24 when absent longer than 4 weeks
MILLICENT SILVER with 4 Chase runs is too risky

KILBREE CHIEF has raced once this season
That was a heavy 32 length defeat
I wanted a better run than that
Given that he is sired by Dr Massini
Not a sire I like to bet over marathon distances
KILBREE CHIEF is not for me from that sire

HARRY THE VIKING is very well handicapped
He should be as his last win was in 2011
One of the reasons he has lost so many times
Is a lack of stamina in my view
A 2nd in a the 4 miler at Cheltenham in 2012
Only served to fool connections he stays
I may be wrong but I always oppose his sire Harry Lewis
Horses by Sir Harry Lewis are 1-54 over 3m 4f +
The only winner was in a race just 2 finished
MIA´S ANTHEM isn't running well enough
He fails my breeding stats as well
ITSTIMEFORAPINT is out of the handicap
Hard to see him winning with a difficult absence
And a poor seasonal debut suggesting he needs more runs

CULTRAM ABBEY is a 9 year old
He has 8 Chase runs and 1 this season
I have my doubts about his stamina
Twice I opposed him last year for similar reasons
His breeding stats are not convincing
He has more weight than all past winners as well
He would not be my choice with 11st 8lbs

CARRIGDHOUN has won both races this season
This is a bit harder but not worryingly harder
CARRIGDHOUN will need a career best though
He has never been beyond 3m 2f before
That worries me as he has raced 27 times over fences

Possibles

SCOTSWELL was 2nd in this race in 2013-2014
He was 2 years younger then of course
And he had a lot more recent runs those years too
I think he will do well to match his seconds in the race
But these are familiar circumstances for him

SMOOTH STEPPER was well beaten last time
His previous 2 Chases last season were heavy defeats too
That would worry me for a 7 year old
On the plus side he was favourite last time in a better race
And a bad mistake early on did cost him
And this may well be the right time of year for him

GROVE SILVER is a 7yo
He won last time out
I have no real problems with his profile
Much as coming from 2m 6f is not ideal
For me it comes down to whether he will stay
That is not guaranteed
His sire Gamut hasn't bred a winner past 3m 1f yet
But only 7 tried and they came 4 3 5 2 2 3 6
Career best Chase run last time make him player

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet SMOOTH STEPPER 7/1

£2.00 Each Way GROVE SILVER 12/1 +



K e l s o 2.50

5/2 Dynaste, 4/1 Aerial, 5/1 Gas Line Boy
7/1 Cloudy Too, 7/1 Jet Master, 7/1 Wychwoods Brook
10/1 Summery Justice, 20/1 Fill The Power.

This is a Veterans Chase
Hardly any of these races in December

I fancy DYNASTE to outclass these
Has always been a frustrating character
But has produced some high class performances
He doesn't stay much beyond 3 miles
I think this is his time of year anyway
His runs over 3m or shorter
In the Uk durong November and December
Show a 2 W W W W W 5 2 record
Throw out Grade 1 Class and it is W W W 2
These sort of silly little examples
Won't really wash with a horse like him
He easily has the class
But you can never trust him to show it
But in Veterans Chases
Where the opposition is older and weaker
He could be a star in these races

AERIAL will be a threat
But Paul Nicholls feels he wants further
He says "The trip will be far too sharp for him"
GAS LINE BOY surely wants further as well
He rarely takes on horses as classy as DYNASTE
SUMMERY JUSTICE is a 12yo debutant
WYCHWOODS BROOK another debutant
FILL THE POWER comes here with 2 heavy defeats
I just can't see past the favourite

Selection

DYNASTE 2/1

Win Bet




F a i r y h o u s e 3.10

3/1 Forever Gold, 5/1 He Rock´s, 5/1 Undressed
7/1 Riverside City, 8/1 As De Pique, 10/1 Captain Von Trappe
12/1 Topper Thornton, 14/1 Kansas City Chief
20/1 Kilgefin Star, 20/1 Thelobstercatcher, 20/1 Tom Horn
25/1 Thunder And Roses.

This is a 3m 5f Handicap Chase
There are 73 similar races in December

There are some interesting issues in this race

Doubtful stayers

Tom Horn
He Rock´s
As De Pique
Undressed

Questionable Form and Fitness

Riverside City
Thelobstercatcher
Kansas City Chief
Thunder And Roses
Topper Thornton
Kilgefin Star

This leaves 2 that stand out to me

CAPTAIN VON TRAPPE 8/1
FOREVER GOLD 3/1


THUNDER AND ROSES dominates the weights
141 rated horse facing a 0-130
He is badly out of form though
Assuming he won't win this is a softer race than usual

I want to argue against a few of these on Stamina grounds
TOM HORN is sired by Beneficial
HE ROCK´S is sired by Beneficial
I like to oppose this sire in Long distance races
His runners over 3m 4f and more are 2-122
TOM HORN looks far too risky
Not proven enough in 43 runs after a 2 year break

HE ROCK´S has never ran over 3m 2f or more
I don't feel he can be trusted from his sire
His profile is weak anyway
HE ROCK´S is 7 and has 26 Chase starts
I looked at the 73 similar races
Alnost all 7yo winners had under 13 Chase runs
One had 17 and one had 20 previous Chase runs
But none of them had as many as him

UNDRESSED was 3rd in the Cork National
If he stays he has a chance but that is far from certain
His sire hasn't bred a winner past 3m 2f
The Sire's runners over 2m 7f and more
Have a 0-30 record in Class 2 and higher
Have a 1-41 record in Class 2 and higher
Wouldn't be a Natural Sire I'd want in a National

AS DE PIQUE was 4th in the Cork National
Beaten 12 lengths he is another who has stamina issues
His sires runners over 3m 2f or more are 0-19
His runners in Class 2 or higher haven't won past 2m 4f
In Class 3 or higher they are 1-30 over 2m 5f and more
I have my doubts he will get home

I am against horses with 1 run this season
Past winners had the following runs that year
3 4 6 3 2 2 0 2 2
None have won with just 1 run
The last 3 winners all had at 3 runs since October
RIVERSIDE CITY only has 1 run this year
Although that was over hurdles he was hammered in it
KANSAS CITY CHIEF has raced once this year
I can't see enough I like about him
THELOBSTERCATCHER is 12 years old
He has raced once since May and unseated
I can't trust him to be fit enough at his age
KILGEFIN STAR isn't running well enough
TOPPER THORNTON pulled up 15 days ago
Jumping Badly that day he looks too risky

Shortlist

FOREVER GOLD has a good profile
He was second in this race last year
I made him a saver and beaten under a length
He comes here in better form than last year
Loves the track and no stamina doubts

CAPTAIN VON TRAPPE has Positives
He has 1 big negative as well though
CAPTAIN VON TRAPPE fell 7 days ago
He has Fallen on his last 2 starts
Not an ideal preparation for a long distance Chase
Horses who Fell last time are 1-25 in these races

He was not beaten when falling at Navan last time
Now if we can assume these two things
That he will Jump round today
And out of form topweight Thunder and Roses won't win
CAPTAIN VON TRAPPE then must go close
He is rated 131
He faces only a 0-125 Class field
His Highest rated dangers included 2 doubtful stayers
If you go down the weights
They are littered with doubtful stayers
And unfit and out of form horses
With the exception of FOREVER GOLD
Who looks the most likely winner
And a horse we have to save on
CAPTAIN VON TRAPPE is of course risky
But if he can avoid falling
He surely must be capable of winning a 0-125
His last Handicap runs were in this class of race
0-150 0-145 0-144 0-145 0-150
I think he is worth a risk saving on the favourite

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet CAPTAIN VON TRAPPE 8/1

£2.50 Win Bet FOREVER GOLD 3/1

****************************************************
****************************************************