0 Bets Today
0 Negative
3 Races Discussed


I was thinking of mixing today's message
up a bit and an Ante Post preview but we
now have an extra Naas meeting so I will
have to consider doing that another time.

Non runners are making things messy in
the races we are involved with but I like
my chances in these 3 races. I nearly had
another bet today but it would been some
strange staking in places and I decided to
just go for a blank day rather than spoil a
very good week. Small bets in all 3 races.
There's unlikely to be a message tomorrow.


No Bet Today



T o d a y s M e s s a g e

You won't be very excited to learn that I will
be having a sneaky football bet today which
is later in the message. I can only hope that
neither the football or a Peppered Mackaral
dinner the Duchess is planning will leave a
rather unpleasant taste in my mouth tonight.

3 Previews Today
Already several non runners
Plenty of them in our 3 Previews



H u n t i n g d o n 3.30

£6 Win Arbeo 3/1

£2 Win Rocky Bender 4/1

£2 Win Leg Iron 9/2



Naas 4.10

£8 Win Bet Justforjames 9/1

£2 Win Bet Jodies Miss 14/1



Huntingdon 4.30

Late Night Lily Evens

Win Bet




LATE NIGHT LILY
There are 4 non runners in this race
That has shortened his price
It is effectively a match now
Between 2 horses around Evens
She is my preference of these two
But I don't feel inspired to make her my bet
This is the least interesting bet for me

ARBEO
Strange to have a win bet and 2 Savers
4 horse race
I fancy the 2nd favourite
If I also save on the 3rd and 4th favourite
Unpalatable as that clearly feels
We are effectively creating a Match
The favourite v The 2nd favourite
Draw no bet if the 3rd of 4th favourites win
It means we ger ARBEO around 11/8
And can only lose if the favourite wins
I think we can beat the favourite
So I am tempted by this bet


JUSTFORJAMES
This is a strange one
By far the least likely winner of the 3
I give him a very good chance though
JODIES MISS is a very cheap saver
Great value bet but hard to judge this one




N e g a t i v e s

No Negative Today

Results of Negatives
22 correct bets from 29






Personal Football Bet

West Bromwich Albion v Man Utd Game
Half Stakes West Bromwich Albion to win around 10/3
Half Stakes Laying Manchester United at 11/10
I think they may struggle to beat WBA today
Just my own personal bet. Nothing official.




Future Racing Thoughts

I have an itch to scratch about the Grand National
It is only 5 weeks away and I want to look very soon
I like to have a ball park shortlist before Cheltenham

The Last Samuri who won yesterday is now 12/1
His chance is laughable and won't be my selection
Neither will Siliviniaco Conti either
I want to get into this race soon


Cheltenham

9 days to go.
Not putting myself under any pressure this year
Just going to enjoy it and see what happens.
My preparation is No preparation

The Neptune Hurdle could provide a bet
I will probably oppose Yanworth the favourite
Not sure what with yet as running plans are unclear.
Not sure it is safe to lay him at least not yet
We may find there is little credible opposition

First of all I hate his Flat sire Norse Dancer
He is not safe on My breeding stats
Not a sire I want in a Grade 1 at Cheltenham over 2m 5f
Yes the horse has looked at Class act
But he is very short and he may not stay in the class
His trainer Alan King is my second reason
He has had a really good season
Too good too soon in my view
His recent stableform is quite worrying
He did have an odds on winner last week
He did have a bumper winner yesterday as well
Too many of his horses are running below form
I think the stable are out of form and peaked too soon
I think David Pipe will have a good Cheltenham
He's had a very average year so far
That may well change for Cheltenham
Alan King may end up without any winners
I won't be selecting any of his horses at the moment




S a t u r d a y s S u m m a r y

Magnificent results yesterday and a real boost
to the profit before Cheltenham. Two rare bets
on one day. SHOTAVODKA hacked up and that
made sure we had a great day. The second bet
broke level. We had the 1st and 2nd but not the
correct order but a decent effort. The message
went W W P P P L W finishing with a beauty and
we did virtually nothing wrong all day. That was
completely down to sacrificing Fridays message.

I just didn't fancy it. I just felt tired and stale and
if I had forced a detailed message out on Friday
it would have damaged Saturday. This workload
is intense and we have long since proved there
is no issue with our ability and the statistics are
successful but it is all about being imaginative
fresh and confident. That SAMTEGAL preview
on Saturday was done before Fridays message
was sent and that just wiped any pressure away
from Saturdays message and I was free to roam
and had the time I needed to get Saturday right.




P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s



Huntingdon 3.30

2/1 Ballyrath, 4/1 Leg Iron
9/2 Arbeo, 9/2 Rocky Bender.

This is a 3m 6f Handicap Chase
Small field raises obvious trust issues

BALLYRATH doesn't convince me
He is only a 6yo and 2 years younger than the rest
He also has to step up from a 2m 4f race
Thats a 11f step up in distance
I didn't like his profile much at all
However whilst I got criticise it quite easily
Other things have to factored in
Not least the flaws of his 4 opponents
LEG IRON is 11 and has raced once since June 2015
He's never won in this class or off his current rating
Will he be fit enough to try and attempt that ?
I prefer the two bottomweights here

ROCKY BENDER has a reasonable chance
I see him as worth at least a saver

ARBEO may well be the one
He has the most recent race
He has a W W W 3 record at this Track
This is his best time of year

Look at his record January to March
When running within 8 weeks
When running on G-Soft or softer
ARBEO has a 5-9 record doing this
3 of these 5 wins came at this track

ARBEO is my Number 1
ROCKY BENDER is my Number 2

LEG IRON is not a horse I like
But if we take the outrageous step
Of making him the 3rd saver

Then we have 3 of the 4 runners on our side
We than can not lose unless Ballyrath wins

If we get 3/1 about ARBEO

Then it effectively means

We are getting 11/8 about ARBEO
With cash back in the 3rd and 4th favourites win


Selection

£6 Win ARBEO 3/1

£2 Win ROCKY BENDER 4/1

£2 Win LEG IRON 9/2


N a a s 4.10

6/4 Call It Magic, 2/1 A Genie In Abottle
13/2 Jodies Miss, 8/1 Justforjames, 10/1 Allenstown Kid
14/1 Cahirconree, 50/1 Our Jerry.

This is a 3m maiden hurdle
February March April
Maiden hurdles over 3m or more
There are 84 similar races

Horses aged 5 don't score well (10-208)
You are twice as likely to win aged 6 or 7
A GENIE IN ABOTTLE is the only 5yo
He has no hurdles form and comes from a bumper
If you look at 5 year olds from Bumpers
You find a modest 1-34 record
That winner had a long absence and just 1 start
A GENIE IN ABOTTLE has a different profile
I am in no rush to bet a 5yo
And no rush to bet a horse from a Bumper

OUR JERRY is an impossible to fancy non stayer
ALLENSTOWN KID wouldn't be my first choice

CALL IT MAGIC has the best numbers
He has 3 hurdle runs now
Racing Post Ratings of 112 125 123
That ought to be enough to win this
What I also like about him is this
I made him a negative on all 3 past hurdle runs
You may remember I have a sire stat about Indian River
This sire's hurdle runners have dreadful records
When having under 3 career starts
CALL IT MAGIC has failed that stat 3 times now
Today he does not fail it
That tells me his numbers should be better
Now there are some problems with CALL IT MAGIC
First of all we can't be sure he will stay 3 miles
The sire has only had 1 winner that has on bad ground
His profile is only very average up from a 2m 3f race
He is not that well bred wither and was quite cheap
Big positives but at a short price I'd be worried

ALLENSTOWN KID comes from a 2m hurdle
Horses doing that with under 3 hurdle runs struggle
I can find a winner like him back in 2002
Since then though all 82 horses have lost
ALLENSTOWN KID's profile is unsafe
I can see positives. His numbers are not too bad
But a weak profile and surely a stamina doubt too

JODIES MISS is hard to read as a 7yo mare
I have ran her profile carefully
I have to shortlist her
She is Not out of this

JUSTFORJAMES looks quite interesting
I don't think we should underestimate him
Male horses aged 7
Coming from a hurdle over 2m 4f or shorter
Beaten under 15 lengths last time
Running within 90 days
Starting under 100/1
Horses with this profile had a 10-32 record
That is a dam fine record over a 3 month period
Those with 3 hurdle runs like him were 2-5
One of those winners (Wind Instrument) was identical

Conclusion

CALL IT MAGIC was my first choice
Always looked the safest of the favourites
Rightly or Wrongly I had a rethink
It would be so easy to sleep walk into him
I then found 2 much better profiles at bigger prices

JODIES MISS
JUSTFORJAMES

Selection

£8 Win Bet JUSTFORJAMES 9/1

£2 Win Bet JODIES MISS 14/1





H u n t i n g d o n 4.30

11/8 Song Saa, 2/1 Late Night Lily
50/1 Gray Wolf River, 66/1 Yur Next.

This is a Mares Maiden hurdle over 2m 3f
4 runners and 2 of these have a chance

I've played around with a few angles
I thought this was easily the best of them
Mares Maiden hurdles
Run in February March and April
Over 2m 5f or shorter

There are 69 of these races
Horses that came from bumpers are 1-129
SONG SAA has this problem
The only winner was a 7yo
He won last month at 40/1
Obviously many in that 1-129 record were unfancied
But SONG SAA clearly has a vulnerable profile

LATE NIGHT LILY is my choice
I would rather trust her
Ran a bit below form last time
That was on a strange track though
I feel she is the only sensible option

Selection

LATE NIGHT LILY Evens

Win Bet

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