2 Bets
1 Bet runs today
1 Bet runs tomorrow
0 Negative
17 Generic Negatives
6 Races Discussed


Final day of the festival today
It is a controversial message today
I am doing something I almost never do
That's bet 24 hrs in advance for Saturday
There will be a Saturday message
But after Cheltenham it will be short

There are 4 races I am very interested in and
they are all good prices. Last night I changed
the routine that I would normally do the night
before the Gold Cup and it has produced two
bets and one of these I'm very excited about.

My 1st bet runs today in the Foxhunters 4.10pm
I have staked this bet like the cowardly wimp I am

My 2nd bet runs tomorrow at Uttoxeter
I have staked this unusually like a Brave Warrior
Don't worry too much about prices


Today's Bets


Cheltenham 4.10 Foxhunters

Split Stake Bet

£4 Each Way PAINT THE CLOUDS 11/2- 6/1 (1,2,3,4)

£2 Win Bet ON THE FRINGE 11/4

Bet with firms that offer 4 places
Price and Place Guide Below
Staked with safety very much in mind



Uttoxeter 4.10 Saturday

Midlands Grand National

MAD BRIAN 14/1 +

£4 Each Way

The remaining £2 Stake
Will be given in tomorrow's message

20/1 William Hill Bet365
16/1 Chandler Ladbrokes 888Sport independants
14/1 Generally elsewhere

Happy with 14/1 and better
Don't worry about prices
Don't allow yourself to be enslaved
If you can't get one now get on later






T o d a y s M e s s a g e


I will start with the weakest bets first
Then build up to the strongest bets


Cheltenham 2.50

£3 Each Way Champers On Ice 33/1
£2 Each Way Up For Review 14/1

Not difficult to argue why this bet will lose
But at the price of 33/1
I feel Champers On Ice is a must bet
I have factored in a saver
I think the market leaders are vulnerable
Just 1 place here means we can not lose
Risky yes. Unlikely to win for sure
But this is a very good value bet in my view


Cheltenham 3.30

£8 Win Don Poli 5/1
£2 Saver Cue Card 4/1

We have a Great Gold Cup record
To be perfectly honest
I did this race a few days ago
I was dying to go with Road to Riches
And have a saver on Don Poli
But that horse ran in the Ryanair
So I am promoting Don Poli to selection
For me he is the Natural Gold Cup winner
Nothing else can win this race on paper
But as you know they don't run on paper
There are factors I can not control here
Not least Ground and Tactics
And how this may help the non stayers
So rather than Go each way
Which I normally would and probably should
I am going with a Saver
And betting Don Poli as a win bet



Cheltenham 4.10

£4 Each Way Paint The Clouds 11/2
£2 Win Bet On The Fringe 11/4

I love both these horses
I am staking this bet like a real Wimp
Much as I love On The Fringe
Paint The Clouds is better value
Especially with 4 places around 11/2 and 6/1
It may be a very wimpish thing to do
But I am also having the saver on On The Fringe
If he wins we will get back 3/4 of our stakes
If Paint The Cloud places we get stakes back
If he wins the race the returns will still be worth it

Paint The Cloud

You can get 4 places with some firms

Ladbrokes - Paint The Cloud 6/1 4 places
Corals - Paint The Cloud 6/1 4 places
Bet365 - Paint The Cloud 6/1 4 places
Betfair - Paint The Cloud 6/1 4 places
Chandler - Paint The Cloud 11/2 4 places
P.Power - Paint The Cloud 6/1 4 places (1/5th)


Uttoxeter 4.10 Saturday

Midlands Grand National

Mad Brian 14/1-16/1- 20/1

£4 Each Way


The remaining £2 Stake
Will be given in tomorrow's message

It can often be a mistake to bet 24hrs in advance
There are so many known unknowns
Things that I will know about tomorrow
But I don't want to wait for Saturday
I'm probably the only idiot that's done this race
I don't want anyone to spoil the price
Potentially this could be a very special bet
But I can not confirm that until tomorrow
Could be a disastrous mistake or a flash of genius
But I have throw the kitchen sink at the race
And am quite excited about this bet
My reasons will be given tomorrow
There is no chance I'd have gone with this early
Unless I was confident in my reasons





Cheltenham Selections


Cheltenham 1.30

£3 Each Way Connetable14/1
£2 Win Footpad 7/1
£2 Win Zubayr 5/1


Cheltenham 2.50

£3 Each Way Champers On Ice 33/1
£2 Each Way Up For Review 14/1


Cheltenham 3.30

£8 Win Don Poli 5/1
£2 Saver Cue Card 4/1


Cheltenham 4.10

£4 Each Way Paint The Clouds 11/2
£2 Win Bet On The Fringe 11/4



Cheltenham 4.50

Squouateur 4/1

Win Bet


Cheltenham 5.30

Dandridge 12/1

Each Way





N e g a t i v e s

No Negative Today

17 Generic Statistics

Cheltenham 2.50 - Bachasson
Cheltenham 5.30 - Dunraven Storm
Cheltenham 5.30 - Sizing Codelco
Cheltenham 5.30 - Germany Calling
Cheltenham 5.30 - Lough Kent
Cheltenham 5.30 - Velvet Maker
Cheltenham 5.30 - Solar Impusle
Cheltenham 5.30 - Raven's Tower
Cheltenham 5.30 - Savello
Cheltenham 5.30 - Chris Pea Green
Cheltenham 5.30 - Eastlake
Cheltenham 5.30 - Surf And Turf
Cheltenham 5.30 - Bright New Dawn
Cheltenham 5.30 - Next Sensation
Cheltenham 5.30 - Pearls Legend
Cheltenham 5.30 - Workbench
Cheltenham 5.30 - Bold Henry

Scores So Far
37 Generic Negatives
35 Correct
2 Incorrect


Results of Negatives
22 correct bets from 29




T h u r s d a y s S u m m a r y

One Bet yesterday at Towcester
That was an each bet which finished 2nd
We knew our fate before Cheltenham started

We are having a little run of placed bets
Neither winning or losing much in them
LEMTARA BAY extended that run

Fascinating race because of an incident
The favourite's saddle slipped early in the race
That was a big problem and the market flip flopped
LEMTARA BAY went long odds on in running after that
They ended up fighting out a close finish
The favourite won despite the saddle incident
The winner was given a sensational ride
But He would have won anyway so no complaints
I thought a lack of fitness told on us later on
But whilst we make a small loss on the bet
I felt that was an outstanding bet
The reason is how far the other 3 were beaten
We traded at 1.15 and were odds on for a long time
I really felt that was superb bet that almost won

Vautour - Thistlecrack - Limini all won
The treble was over 7/1
With Hindsight it was very obvious
What it did do though is prevent an account bet
They were all just too strong to oppose
And too short to bet as well
That's why I went to Towcester





P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s


C h e l t e n h a m 1.30

13:30 JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1)

4/1 Ivanovich Gorbatov, 4/1 Zubayr, 6/1 Sceau Royal
8/1 Footpad, 12/1 Connetable, 12/1 Let´s Dance
12/1 Who Dares Wins, 16/1 Apple´s Jade, 16/1 Clan Des Obeaux
16/1 Tommy Silver, 20/1 Frodon, 20/1 Gibralfaro
33/1 Consul De Thaix, 33/1 Leoncavallo
100/1 Big Mcintosh.

The Triumph Hurdle is for 4 year olds
Look at the last 17 winners
The last 24 winners last ran after January 17th
They all raced within 56 days
Those that did not had a 0-53 record
I would want a race within 8 weeks
APPLE´S JADE is absent 83 days
SCEAU ROYAL is absent 63 days
LEONCAVALLO is absent 97 days
BIG MCINTOSH is absent 133 days

Willie Mullins runs two Fillies
LET´S DANCE and APPLE´S JADE
Fillies won 3 renewals in 1993,1994 and 2000
All 3 fillies won last time out within the past month
The last filly to win this was back in 2000
That winner (Snow Drop) had 13 runs
She had 6 previous hurdle runs
She had a recent run as well
I think these look too inexperienced for fillies
LET´S DANCE is rejected
APPLE´S JADE is rejected

CONSUL DE THAIX looks too inexperienced
GIBRALFARO didn't do enough last time out
You don't want a colt in this race anyway
You need a Racing Post Rating of 132 +
TOMMY SILVER does not have that
SCEAU ROYAL has a nasty absence
He also comes from a Class 2 race
All 43 horses that did that were beaten
FRODON also fails that and is not stable 1st string
CLAN DES OBEAUX looks the Nicholls 3rd string

IVANOVICH GORBATOV has been well touted for this
I don't feel the love for this horse
Much as Hurricane Fly was sired by Montjeu
I'd be in no hurry to bet a Montjeu 4 year old here
He is only a medium sized horse
If you look at horses beaten over 8 lengths last time out
There is a 0-152 record since 1997
IVANOVICH GORBATOV fails that
Win lose or draw I am not drawn to him
WHO DARES WINS is a May foal by Jeremy
Beaten last time from a stable not flying at the moment
I don't think he will get home so looking elsewhere

Shortlist

ZUBAYR has 1 career start
That troubles me given just 3 career starts
Recent winners had the following Hurdle runs
3 2 3 6 1 2 2 2 6 3
He is trying to do the same as Zarkandar 2011
Winning at Kempton with 1 run then winning this
ZUBAYR has 1 less run than Zarkandar

FOOTPAD has a chance
The Mullins team don't worry much about this race
There are a couple of recent winners with 6 runs
And his numbers are solid

CONNETABLE is a nice big type
I have no statistical objections
He had a setback in the Autumn
At Sandown connections said he was "Not match fit"
He has come out and won since

I ran some tightly controlled breeding statistics
Just looking at sires of 4yo Hurdlers
Who had won Graded races on Good or faster ground
They threw up only 2 sires that managed this
The horses they apply to today are these

CONNETABLE
ZUBAYR

Minimum Stakes Here

Staked to £10

£3 Each Way CONNETABLE 14/1
£2 Win FOOTPAD 7/1
£2 Win ZUBAYR 5/1




C h e l t e n h a m 2.50

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle
(Registered As The Spa Novices' Hurdle) (Grade 1)

11/4 Barters Hill, 9/2 Shantou Village, 7/1 Gangster
10/1 Long Dog, 10/1 Unowhatimeanharry, 12/1 Bleu Et Rouge
12/1 Up For Review, 20/1 Bachasson, 20/1 Balko Des Flos,
20/1 Champers On Ice, 25/1 Definite Outcome
25/1 Fagan, 25/1 Open Eagle, 33/1 Allysson Monterg
33/1 Aurillac, 40/1 Jonniesofa, 50/1 Hit The Highway
50/1 Solstice Star, 66/1 Atlantic Gold
66/1 West Approach.

This is a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle over 3 Miles
There are 11 renewals of this race

All 11 winners came from a Graded Hurdle last time
OPEN EAGLE does not do this
UNOWHATIMEANHARRY fails this from a handicap
All 27 horses that did this were beaten
BALKO DES FLOS fails this from a maiden hurdle
He is too inexperienced for me

BACHASSON fails a Generic statistic
5 year olds absent over 68 days don't win Grade 1's
Not sure I'd want a 5 year old anyway
In the 11 past renewals they are just 1-39
That winner was a bit of a fluke
BLEU ET ROUGE is opposed aged 5
I think there is too much of a stamina doubt with him

GANGSTER has 90 days absence
LONG DOG has 82 days absence

Since 1991
Novice Hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival
Almost every winner ran within 80 days
Only 1 winner won absent longer
That was Black Jack Ketchum with 97 days off

LONG DOG looks opposable
He is sired by Notnowcato
This sire hasn't bred a hurdle winner beyond 2m 5f
LONG DOG also comes from a 2m race
No past winners did that
GANGSTER is harder to rule out
But 90 days off is a problem
I am not convinced he will stay on this track

BARTERS HILL has an obvious chance
He has to prove he stays though
If this had been softer ground
He would have failed my breeding stats
His win at Doncaster relaxes my attitude to him
There is still a legitimate stamina doubt
His sires Cheltenham runners over 2m 4f + are 0-18
We can't be sure the track will suit anyway
All his wins have been on flat tracks
You also have the small stable syndrome
Wins in November December January
Now asked to peak again 7 weeks later
Not easy for a small stable to master
In the highest class you can get

SHANTOU VILLAGE was beaten last time
Not a good sign even if it was by Yanworth
I made him a negative last time
I don't think he was fit that day
He had a long absence of 78 days on heavy ground
He was also far too experienced
Whilst I can forgive him that
And I can fancy him each way to take this
One reservation is his size as he is not a big horse
Most of his rivals have had more recent runs too
SHANTOU VILLAGE has raced just once in 126 days
Without those last 2 problems I'd be a lot keener

UP FOR REVIEW was beaten 21 lengths last time
Horses beaten more than 13 lengths were 0-21
That last run weakens his profile
I am forgiving him that run
He was 7/4 favourite at Doncaster
And that was against Barters Hill
Leap of faith he will bounce back to form
But that risk is factored in his price

CHAMPERS ON ICE may be worth a punt
He was well beaten last time out
I fancied him that day at 6/1
I made him my second best bet of the day
But I did say the following last time out

"David Pipe is just so slippery at times
No surprise if he loses then wins the Neptune
But I feel there are very good reasons to bet him"
This isn't the Neptune. But this race still looks ideal
He was beaten by Yanworth and Shantou Village
If you can forgive him that run
Then he has a serious chance
Perhaps he had done too much beforehand
He had taken in 3 tough races already that season
There could be 101 genuine excuses for last time
At 33/1 and more I feel he is worth the risk
His Racing Post Ratings were very progressive
His defeat last time on those ratings
Was only 5lbs below form so I do quite like him

Selection

£3 Each Way CHAMPERS ON ICE 33/1

£2 Each Way UP FOR REVIEW 14/1







C h e l t e n h a m 3.30

Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1)

11/4 Don Cossack, 7/2 Djakadam, 4/1 Cue Card
9/2 Don Poli, 9/1 Road To Riches, 9/1 Smad Place
25/1 Carlingford Lough, 50/1 O´faolains Boy
66/1 Irish Cavalier, 66/1 On His Own.

The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f110y
I like lightly raced horses in this race
I want a horse that has roughly 5-14 Chase runs
The last 20 winners had the following chase runs

3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
Only Kauto Star has won with more than 13 Chases

This is a problem for the following horses

On His Own - 27 Chase runs
Cue Card - 21 Chase runs
Carlingford Lough - 20 Chase runs
Don Cossack - 18 Chase run
Sir Des Champs - 15 Chase runs

Horses aged 11 and over haven't won since 1969
All 40 that ran in the last 19 years lost.
ON HIS OWN is rejected aged 12

Horses aged 10 do not have a great record either
Horses aged 10 + have a 1-96 record since 1992

CARLINGFORD LOUGH is 10 years old
He is sired by King's Theatre
This sire has bred 98 Graded winners
Those that ran beyond 3m 2f were 0-48
I failed him in last years race for the same reason
I don't think he stayed then or will today

CUE CARD has exactly the same problem
He is also 10 and we know these underperform
But CUE CARD is also by King's Theatre
This sire has bred 98 Graded winners
Those that ran beyond 3m 2f were 0-48

IRISH CAVALIER is not good enough
O´FAOLAINS BOY is impossible to fancy

SMAD PLACE has had a great season
He has won the Hennessy and was 4th in the King George
I opposed him in this race last year
He was well beaten but he is a better horse now
SMAD PLACE started life on the flat albeit abroad
No winners since 1979 had ran on the Flat
I also find him on the exposed side with 28 Chase runs
Having so many hurdle runs (14) is also a bad sign
I know he has won a Hennessy
But I don't think he stays the Gold Cup distance
SMAD PLACE is also 0-12 in Grade 1 races
I don't think he has the stamina in this class

DJAKADAM was second in last years race
Obviously that earns him a lot of respect
He was a young horse last year
He doesn't seem to have gone backwards
I do have one problem with him
Because he fell last time out at the 10th fence
He has only had 1 run and 10 fences this season
Since as far back as 1982
Only 5 horses aged 7 have won the Gold Cup
These 5 winners had 5 4 4 3 4 runs that season

7 Year Old Gold Cup winners since 1982

Kuato Star had 5 runs that season in 2007
War of Attrition had 4 runs that season in 2006
Kicking King had 4 runs that season in 2005
Best Mate had 3 runs that season in 2002
Imperial Call had 4 runs that season in 1996
DJAKADAM only has 1 run and 10 fences

DON COSSACK is clearly very talented
His 2 Festival appearances have yet to succeed
My main problem is he has 18 Chase starts
The last 20 winners had the following chase runs
3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
19 of the last 20 winners had 5-14 previous Chase starts
Only Kauto Star has won with more
That stops him being the selection
Far from convinced he fully stays this far
His sire has bred just 1 winner over 3m 2f or more
That winner came in a Class 7 race


Shortlist

DON POLI is a 7yo
He has 12 career starts 6 Chase runs and 3 this season
Look at Best Mate back in 2012
He had 12 career starts 6 Chase runs and 3 this season
DON POLI has exactly the same profile
Different types admittedly but a solid enough profile
Some argue he is too slow but I don't by that
He's won a RSA with the longest absence in 50 years
You can not pigeon hold a horse as quickly as that
Yes the drying ground could be an issue
Yes he could find himself a little outpaced at times
And I do have some reservations on that score
And Bryan Cooper has chosen Don Cossack
It is for those reasons I am making him a win bet
Rather than an each way bet
Because of that I am having a saver
I don't fancy CUE CARD much
But if DON POLI does disappoint
Then none of them are sure to stay
And the race has to be won by something

Selection

£8 Win DON POLI 5/1

£2 Saver Cue Card 4/1







C h e l t e n h a m 4.10

St. James's Place Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup

11/4 On The Fringe, 6/1 Paint The Clouds,
7/1 Marito 7/1 Mendip Express, 8/1 Aupcharlie
12/1 It Came To Pass 14/1 Mr Mercurial, 14/1 Pacha Du Polder
16/1 Twirling Magnet, 20/1 Chapoturgeon, 20/1 Current Event
20/1 Dark Lover, 25/1 Current Exchange, 25/1 Impact Area
33/1 Alskamatic, 33/1 Camden, 33/1 Indiana Bay
33/1 Major Malarkey, 33/1 Need To Know, 33/1 Richmond
50/1 Brackloon High, 50/1 Cave Hunter, 50/1 Pena Dorada
100/1 Temple Grandin.

The Foxhunters has added spice this year
With the Victoria Pendleton Circus taking over
PACHA DU POLDER is her ride and I am against her
Nothing personal but I don't like him from 2m 4f
And she just wants to survive the race not win it

I'm not sold on MARITO
I don't think he will get home
Not keen he started life on the Flat
TWIRLING MAGNET isn't the right type
If you look at Racing Post Ratings
All recent winners had achieved a 136 or more
MR MERCURIAL has never come close to that
CURRENT EXCHANGE has never come close to that
I doubt their class based on their numbers
CURRENT EVENT was hammered in this last year
Started life on the flat which isn't a good sign
DARK LOVER looks a non stayer
IT CAME TO PASS is very lightly raced
Thats why I excuse his modest numbers
I wouldn't rule him out despite inexperience
But the jockey puts me off enough to look elsewhere

Shortlist

MENDIP EXPRESS won recently
That earns him plenty of respect
Most past winners were started life in Hunters or Points
MENDIP EXPRESS can not say that

AUPCHARLIE can not say that either
Not sure he is the right type either
But a recent win and high class jockey on side

Horses aged 11 or more are pretty poor
They are 2-151 since 1997
That is not as bad as it sounds
If you take out the outsiders
Take out the horses with absences
This then becomes a 2-29 record

ON THE FRINGE is 11 years old
Hard to see him finishing too far away
He did win this easily last year

PAINT THE CLOUDS is also 11
He finished 3rd in last years race
I fancied him and backed him each way last year
There was heavy rain all day last year
It turned the ground against him
The horse is useless on soft ground
If he can place last year on ground he hates
I think he has to be the each way bet today
One of the best jockeys he is my bet

I love ON THE FRINGE
But with 4 places
The value has to be PAINT THE CLOUDS
And like a wimp I am squeezing in a saver

Selection

£4 Each Way PAINT THE CLOUDS 11/2

£2 Win Bet ON THE FRINGE 11/4







C h e l t e n h a m 4.50

Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle

5/1 Squouateur, 8/1 Qualando, 12/1 Childrens List
12/1 Jetstream Jack, 14/1 Flying Angel, 14/1 Ibis Du Rheu
14/1 Label Des Obeaux, 14/1 Montdragon, 16/1 Mr Mix
16/1 Westend Star, 16/1 Zulu Oscar, 20/1 Tully East
20/1 Urano, 20/1 Whiteout, 20/1 Work In Progress
25/1 Bivouac, 25/1 Laurium, 33/1 Buiseness Sivola
33/1 Goodwood Mirage, 33/1 Matorico, 33/1 Nabucco
50/1 Handiwork, 50/1 Roadie Joe, 50/1 Sky Khan.

This is a 2m 4f Handicap for Conditional Jockeys
There are 7 previous renewals

Horses aged 5 or 6 are best
Horses aged 7 or more have a 0-68 record
All 7 winners ran within 52 days
Those that did not were 0-53
I am prepared to go a few days longer
All 7 winners were Male (Others 0-10)
All 7 winners started under 10/1 on their latest run
Those that did not were 0-49
Horses from Listed or Class 2 Handicap Hurdles
Had a very poor 0-66 record
Past winners had the following hurdle runs
3 7 8 2 13 5 4
All past winners had a R. Post hurdle Rating of 137 +

This leads us to this shortlist

JETSTREAM JACK
LABEL DES OBEAUX
MR MIX
WORK IN PROGRESS
CHILDRENS LIST
SQUOUATEUR

If I add another statistic
That shows none of the past winners
Came from ordinary Novice Hurdles
This then leaves 2 shortlisted

CHILDRENS LIST
SQUOUATEUR

Selection

SQUOUATEUR 7/2

Win Bet







C h e l t e n h a m 5.30

Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase
Challenge Cup (Grade 3 Handicap)

8/1 Next Sensation, 10/1 Velvet Maker
11/1 Rock The World 12/1 Dandridge, 14/1 Arthur´s Oak
14/1 Eastlake 14/1 Sizing Codelco, 14/1 The Saint James
16/1 Bright New Dawn, 16/1 Lough Kent, 20/1 Bold Henry
20/1 Chris Pea Green, 20/1 Croco Bay, 20/1 Pearls Legend
20/1 Red Spinner, 20/1 Savello, 25/1 Dresden
25/1 Dunraven Storm, 25/1 Germany Calling
25/1 Raven´s Tower, 25/1 Workbench, 33/1 Gardefort
33/1 Solar Impulse, 40/1 Surf And Turf.

The Grand Annual ends the Festival
We have 24 runners in this race
16 of the 24 fail Generic Statistics
Thats means we are down to just 8 runners

Gardefort
Arthur´s Oak
Croco Bay
Dresden
Red Spinner
Rock The World
The Saint James
Dandridge

ARTHUR´S OAK has too much weight
21 of the last 22 winners had Graded form
ARTHUR´S OAK does not have that
CROCO BAY has too much weight
I feel the same about DRESDEN too

RED SPINNER has no Graded form
We know 21 of the last 22 winners had that
He only has 3 Chase starts
Recent winners had the following Chase runs
9 4 5 20 7 6 13 11 5 7 10 4 11 3 6 5 39 26
Only 1 past winner had 3 Chase runs
That was back in 2000 and he had Grade 1 form
GARDEFORT has no Graded form
After 16 Chase runs I would demand that
ROCK THE WORLD has 11st 6lbs
Combine that with 146 days off the track
That combination worries me
THE SAINT JAMES is only a 5 year old
One did win in 2003 but he had 16lbs less weight
He also won last time and was less exposed

Selection

DANDRIDGE 12/1

Each Way

He lacks Graded form
But he lightly raced so I overlook that
Comes here after a recent win
Far more positives than the others

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