0 Bet today
0 Negative
8 Previews

Eight previews today which all feel a similar
standard. Feels a message without a strong
selling point today. I was hoping there might
be some natural progression from yesterday
and some cream that rose to the top but this
hasn't happened for whatever reason so we
are going to suffer a lower stake no bet day.

Today's Bet

No Official Bet




T o d a y s M e s s a g e

It has been an annoying message to finish
today both hounded and stalked by a pesky
problem from Adobe shockwave which has
forced me to constantly change my browser.
That's hurt the message quality a little bit.

Like Yesterday
The aim is a profit from the best bet

Clonmel 5.00

Staked to £10

£8 Win Bet BELLE FORTUNE 11/4

£2 Win Bet UNA´S PLEASURE 7/2

Big field
Lots of dead wood
I want to take on the 2nd and 4th favourites
I think this is a reasonable bet
Certainly the one I liked best from the previews
But overall the message has underachieved
First time I fancy one strongly I will stake it




Daily Negatives

0 Negative Today
Results of Negatives
24 correct bets from 32





W e d n e s d a y s R e v i e w

Solid enough comeback message
AVISPA the best bet won quite easily
We had HAB REEH win at 9/1 from 12/1
MIDNIGHT TOUR threw certain victory away
BOGSNOG disappointed on soft but the danger won
SUVENNA also won part of a split stake bet
Pretty accurate throughout so pleased with that



P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s



Goodwood 2.20

I thought this was too hard
I ran some angles in similar Class 2 races
I had to shortlist the following
Russian Realm -Arnold Lane
The Warrior -Cincuenta Pasos -Sirius Prospect
I haven't broken this down enough to bother with




W o r c e s t e r 2.40

7/2 Brownville, 9/2 Brook, 11/2 American Legend
11/2 Fight Commander, 15/2 Brody Bleu, 9/1 St Johns Point
10/1 Tsar Alexandre, 16/1 Thegreendalerocket 20/1 Alanjou.

2m 7f Handicap Chase
We have been opposing 5 year olds recently
BROOK is the next one we are opposing

Handicap Chases in May
2m 3f or further
Any Class of race
Male horses aged 5
There is now a 0-144 record with 5 year olds
BROOK fails this angle as a 5yo

Obviously this is a fiercely competitive race
AMERICAN LEGEND does not come out well
If I look at horses with 11 or more Chase starts
Who have an absence of over 3 months
Who also carry more than 11st in weight
None of them were aged under 9 years old
AMERICAN LEGEND has this problem
Not a strong negative but I didn't like combination
Of Absence Weight Age and Number of Chase runs

Shortlist

BROWNVILLE is interesting
7 year old who won a recent Novice Chase
It is a likeable profile without being strong

BRODY BLEU - I would keep him on side
The ground is right and he is running better

FIGHT COMMANDER is like a couple of winners
I think he is quite well handicapped

Selection

£4 Each Way BRODY BLEU 11/2

£2 Win FIGHT COMMANDER 6/1




L i n g f i e l d 3.40

5/2 Onorina, 100/30 Ayr Of Elegance
9/2 Rivers Run, 15/2 Voice Control,
9/1 Broughtons Berry 16/1 Star Anise
16/1 Starcrossed 20/1 Pao De Acuca.

1m 6f Handicap
I opposed ONORINA last time
I didn't think he would stay 14f at Goodwood
His sire is not inspiring in longer distance races
I don't think he stayed last time
The 14f here is actually a bit stiffer
If you use Racing Post Standard Times
He may win but I think he may not get home
RIVERS RUN is a 4yo filly absent 90 days
She only has 4 career starts
I can find a lightly raced 4yo filly winning
Who had 46 days off the track
But she had considerably less weight on 7st 12lbs
And RIVERS RUN is absent twice as long
I can see a case for her if she is better class
But my angles do not support her
VOICE CONTROL has a chance first time out
He is on the borderline of being ok
Had he come from a stronger stable
I may have been more interested
AYR OF ELEGANCE looks a better option
I felt he had more to offer than the rest

Selection

AYR OF ELEGANCE 11/4

Win Bet






W o r c e s t e r 3.50

3/1 Cut The Corner, 3/1 King Boru
4/1 Fountains Blossom, 5/1 Calculated Risk
6/1 Castlemorris King, 14/1 Noble Friend
25/1 Fine Resolve, 25/1 Romeo Is Bleeding,

Claimig Hurdle over 2m 4f
Not many of these races are run
I would stay with the horses under 12/1
Ratings and Numbers suggest they have an edge

The Main issue for me is this
CUT THE CORNER has 1 run since October
KING BORU has 1 run since October
NOBLE FRIEND has 1 run since October
Now I can't make any of these negatives
But it may lead the way open for some fitter horses
Thats the way I would go
So I will shortlist the following

CASTLEMORRIS KING - Questionable stayer but is fit
FOUNTAINS BLOSSOM - Fit and an e/w option
CALCULATED RISK - Fit and an e/w option

Selection

FOUNTAINS BLOSSOM 7/2

Each Way






G o o d w o o d 4.00

7/2 The Black Princess, 4/1 Skiffle, 9/2 Dessertoflife
7/1 Cajoled, 7/1 Zaakhir, 15/2 September Stars
8/1 Play Gal, 12/1 Mirsaalah, 25/1 Visage Blanc.

This is a 3yo Listed race just short of 10f
It is an Oaks trial

THE BLACK PRINCESS is sired by Iffraaj
This sire has sired 12 Pattern winners
None were over 9f or more though
This sires pattern race runners over 9f + are 0-19
None he had with under 3 runs won at a mile or more
Just raises a doubt about getting home in the class
THE BLACK PRINCESS also comes from a handicap
Only 1 winner did that and he had twice as many runs

CAJOLED also comes from a handicap
She too has only 2 runs half as many as the handicap winner
VISAGE BLANC comes from a handicap
Her numbers are just too low
You want a Racing Post Rating of 98 + to win this
She has only done a 75

ZAAKHIR has raced just once last year
The last winners with that profile were 2000 and 2002
Neither of them came from a Mile race
It was a long time ago now and she is inexperienced
If I look at her Sire Raven's Pass
His Listed/Group winners over 9f or more are 2-21
Those with under 6 runs were 0-14
ZAAKHIR with 1 run fails that 0-14 record

PLAY GAL may not have the class
The sires had a Listed winner over 7f and no more
I Dislike her draw in Stall 1 as well
MIRSAALAH didn't do enough last time

Shortlist

SEPTEMBER STARS is shortlistable
She is like 1 past winner albeit some time ago
Doesn't seem much confidence in the market

DESSERTOFLIFE - Neutral profile
I would see her as a positive though
She is the most exposed horse
But She has the best numbers
DESSERTOFLIFE has a 98 Racing Post Rating
Her nearest rival has only done 88
Several have more improvement than her
But that is a nice edge to have

SKIFFLE has raced just once and only 7 days ago
I am uncomfortable with that profile
But the 1998 winner Napoleon's Sister shared it
She was beaten in a maiden and won this 10 days later
SKIFFLE missed the break on her debut last week
Finished well in that race and could be a big threat

£2 Each Way DESSERTOFLIFE 8/1

£6 Win Bet SKIFFLE 7/2






G o o d w o o d 4.35

7/4 Golden Reign, 9/4 High Hopes, 8/1 Atone
9/1 Al Egda, 10/1 Maqueda, 10/1 Pleasure Dome
12/1 Talisa, 25/1 Onehelluvatouch, 33/1 Zubeida
66/1 Lady Emma.

Fillies Maiden just short of 9f

GOLDEN REIGN obviously has ability
Two little moans about her
Not overkeen on Stall 1 over this distance here
She is also a small horse and I hate that
I just wonder what sort of improvement she may find
I am ducking her because of her size

HIGH HOPES looks a possible each way bet
I'd be more comfortable betting her than the fav
At least she has a bit of size and scope about her

ATONE has raced once
Beaten 26 lengths 27 days ago
Didn't like the sound of that much
But I ran her profile carefully
Her profile is not dead
Her trainer won with a similar type (Karliyna)
If she is strong in the market I'd consider her
Her Sister was 2nd in the Oaks and won a G1 here

AL EGDA is hard to like on last years run
But she is trained by a Genius and cost 700k
She was probably not fancied at Windsor last year
It was a hot race and I'd expect more today

I don't want to trust Golden Reign
Rather than go with the Obvious
Which would be High Hopes each way
I am betting the 2nd 3rd and 4th

Selection

£2.50 Win HIGH HOPES 11/4

£2.50 Win ATONE 11/1

£2.50 Each Way AL EGDA 11/1






C l o n m e l 5.00

4/1 Sarah Joyce, 4/1 Una´s Pleasure
5/1 Belle Fortune 6/1 Barrow Valley, 6/1 Goodthynemilan
10/1 Definite Lily 10/1 Tranquil Magic, 12/1 Artists Daughter
14/1 Cheltenham Mati, 14/1 Milan Eve 16/1 Flemenspower
20/1 Maud Gonne 25/1 Emma Beag, 50/1 Faithful Rosanna
50/1 Putrakin, 50/1 Shanklys Dawn, 66/1 Moreporter
66/1 Vicky Milan.

Messy Big field
Mares Maiden hurdle
I could not select SARAH JOYCE
Not convinced of Stamina or ability
One of my favourite sires The Carbon Unit
His flat runs don't seem to stay 10 furlongs
He hasn't sired a jumps winner either
SARAH JOYCE looks like a small flat bred anyway
She did well over 21f last time to be fair
But she was flattered
And I am against her preferring older horses

If you look at Mares Maiden Hurdles in May
Run over any distance
Unraced horses have a 1-96 record
Those aged 5 were 0-24

Develop that to April May June
Mares Maiden Hurdles
Unraced horses have a 3-206 record
Those aged 5 were 0-67
In races over 2m 3f or more they were 0-90

TRANQUIL MAGIC has this problem
MILAN EVE has this problem
CHELTENHAM MATI has this problem

ARTISTS DAUGHTER - Not for me
Trainers only had 1 winner and that was 6 years ago

GOODTHYNEMILAN - Just 1 Bumper run
Not a negative but not safe enough
BARROW VALLEY - I feel the same
Not a negative but not safe enough

UNA´S PLEASURE would be a better option
Again not enough to completely convince me
Beaten a fair distance only 12 days ago
And coming up in trip as well
Could be worth a saver

BELLE FORTUNE is interesting down in trip
If I look at 8 year olds who drop from 3m races
I found only on tried and she won
That was Kilnockin Lady who had 2 hurdle runs
BELLE FORTUNE has the same number (2)
I'd rather go with her

Selection

£8 Win Bet BELLE FORTUNE 11/4

£2 Win Bet UNA´S PLEASURE 4/1






S a n d o w n 8.00

5/2 Shabeeb, 9/2 Regicide, 13/2 High Shields
13/2 Plenary, 8/1 Madame Chow, 8/1 Profusion
16/1 Alfredo, 16/1 Niceonecenturion, 20/1 Ma Peek
20/1 William Hunter, 33/1 Balancing Time
33/1 Royal Occassion, 40/1 Imari Kid
40/1 Tom´s Rock, 100/1 Rowlestonerendezvu.

This is a 10f Maiden

Big field but lots of dead wood
If you look at 10f races here since 2013
There have been 87 of these races
Horses drawn 11 or higher had a 0-58 record
Go back to 2011 and none won drawn 14 +

REGICIDE - I can't have him drawn 16
SHABEEB - His draw in Stall 12 worries me too

I would base a selection around these horses
My Staking and selection is Guesswork

£3 Each Way HIGH SHIELDS 6/1

£2 Win Bet PROFUSION 8/1

£2 Win Bet PLENARY 10/1


****************************************************
****************************************************